A Decision-Support System to Schedule Rotations for Trainees.

Background: Each training program has its own internal policies and restrictions, which must be considered while developing trainee schedules. Designing these schedules is complex and time consuming, and the final schedules often contain undesirable aspects for trainees. Objective: We developed a decision-support system (DSS) to optimally schedule daily assignments and monthly rotations for trainees. The proposed DSS aims to 1) reduce the schedule development time, 2) maximize trainee preferences for desired rotations and vacation times, and 3) ensure adaptability of the DSS across multiple graduate medical programs through a flexible design and intuitive graphical user interface. Methods: Using mixed-integer linear programming, we developed a scheduling model that 1) maximized trainees' preferences on specific rotations and vacation times and 2) ensured fairness by assigning equal numbers of vacation days and a balanced schedule of difficult versus easy rotations among trainees. The model was successfully implemented in the Mayo Clinic Division of Pulmonary and Critical Care for the academic year 2018-2019. Results: Using the DSS, it took only a few minutes to produce a schedule versus several days of preparation time required by the manual process. Compared with the manually developed schedule, the DSS schedule satisfied 11% more rotation preferences and improved fairness by 19%. All trainees met duty hours in the DSS schedule compared with 83% in the manually developed schedule. Conclusion: The proposed DSS can dramatically reduce the schedule preparation time, accommodate more of trainees' preferences, and improve fairness in assigning rotations.

Predicting Risk of Surgery in Patients With Small Bowel Crohn's Disease Strictures Using Computed Tomography and Magnetic Resonance Enterography.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to determine if patient symptoms and computed tomography enterography (CTE) and magnetic resonance enterography (MRE) imaging findings can be used to predict near-term risk of surgery in patients with small bowel Crohn's disease (CD). METHODS: CD patients with small bowel strictures undergoing serial CTE or MRE were retrospectively identified. Strictures were defined by luminal narrowing, bowel wall thickening, and unequivocal proximal small bowel dilation. Harvey-Bradshaw index (HBI) was recorded. Stricture observations and measurements were performed on baseline CTE or MRE and compared to with prior and subsequent scans. Patients were divided into those who underwent surgery within 2 years and those who did not. LASSO (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator) regression models were trained and validated using 5-fold cross-validation. RESULTS: Eighty-five patients (43.7 ± 15.3 years of age at baseline scan, majority male [57.6%]) had 137 small bowel strictures. Surgery was performed in 26 patients within 2 years from baseline CTE or MRE. In univariate analysis of patients with prior exams, development of stricture on the baseline exam was associated with near-term surgery (P = .006). A mathematical model using baseline features predicting surgery within 2 years included an HBI of 5 to 7 (odds ratio [OR], 1.7 × 105; P = .057), an HBI of 8 to 16 (OR, 3.1 × 105; P = .054), anastomotic stricture (OR, 0.002; P = .091), bowel wall thickness (OR, 4.7; P = .064), penetrating behavior (OR, 3.1 × 103; P = .096), and newly developed stricture (OR: 7.2 × 107; P = .062). This model demonstrated sensitivity of 67% and specificity of 73% (area under the curve, 0.62). CONCLUSIONS: CTE or MRE imaging findings in combination with HBI can potentially predict which patients will require surgery within 2 years.

Computed tomography and magnetic resonance enterography imaging measurements and observations, in combination with patient symptoms, can potentially predict which patients will require surgery within 2 years with modest degree of accuracy.

Practical development and operationalization of a 12-hour hospital census prediction algorithm.

Hospital census prediction has well-described implications for efficient hospital resource utilization, and recent issues with hospital crowding due to CoVID-19 have emphasized the importance of this task. Our team has been leading an institutional effort to develop machine-learning models that can predict hospital census 12 hours into the future. We describe our efforts at developing accurate empirical models for this task. Ultimately, with limited resources and time, we were able to develop simple yet useful models for 12-hour census prediction and design a dashboard application to display this output to our hospital's decision-makers. Specifically, we found that linear models with ElasticNet regularization performed well for this task with relative 95% error of +/- 3.4% and that this work could be completed in approximately 7 months.

Using operative features to identify surgical complexity: a case in breast surgery practice.

Increasing workload is one of the main problems that surgical practices face. This increase is not only due to the increasing demand volume but also due to increasing case complexity. This raises the question on how to measure and predict the complexity to address this issue. Predicting surgical duration is critical to parametrize surgical complexity, improve surgeon satisfaction by avoiding unexpected overtime, and improve operation room utilization. Our objective is to utilize the historical data on surgical operations to obtain complexity groups and use this groups to improve practice.Our study first leverages expert opinion on the surgical complexity to identify surgical groups. Then, we use a tree-based method on a large retrospective dataset to identify similar complexity groups by utilizing the surgical features and using surgical duration as a response variable. After obtaining the surgical groups by using two methods, we statistically compare expert-based grouping with the data-based grouping. This comparison shows that a tree-based method can provide complexity groups similar to the ones generated by an expert by using features that are available at the time of surgical listing. These results suggest that one can take advantage of available data to provide surgical duration predictions that are data-driven, evidence-based, and practically relevant.