Risk factors associated with post-acute sequelae of SARS-CoV-2: an N3C and NIH RECOVER study.

BACKGROUND: More than one-third of individuals experience post-acute sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 infection (PASC, which includes long-COVID). The objective is to identify risk factors associated with PASC/long-COVID diagnosis. METHODS: This was a retrospective case-control study including 31 health systems in the United States from the National COVID Cohort Collaborative (N3C). 8,325 individuals with PASC (defined by the presence of the International Classification of Diseases, version 10 code U09.9 or a long-COVID clinic visit) matched to 41,625 controls within the same health system and COVID index date within ± 45 days of the corresponding case's earliest COVID index date. Measurements of risk factors included demographics, comorbidities, treatment and acute characteristics related to COVID-19. Multivariable logistic regression, random forest, and XGBoost were used to determine the associations between risk factors and PASC. RESULTS: Among 8,325 individuals with PASC, the majority were > 50 years of age (56.6%), female (62.8%), and non-Hispanic White (68.6%). In logistic regression, middle-age categories (40 to 69 years; OR ranging from 2.32 to 2.58), female sex (OR 1.4, 95% CI 1.33-1.48), hospitalization associated with COVID-19 (OR 3.8, 95% CI 3.05-4.73), long (8-30 days, OR 1.69, 95% CI 1.31-2.17) or extended hospital stay (30 + days, OR 3.38, 95% CI 2.45-4.67), receipt of mechanical ventilation (OR 1.44, 95% CI 1.18-1.74), and several comorbidities including depression (OR 1.50, 95% CI 1.40-1.60), chronic lung disease (OR 1.63, 95% CI 1.53-1.74), and obesity (OR 1.23, 95% CI 1.16-1.3) were associated with increased likelihood of PASC diagnosis or care at a long-COVID clinic. Characteristics associated with a lower likelihood of PASC diagnosis or care at a long-COVID clinic included younger age (18 to 29 years), male sex, non-Hispanic Black race, and comorbidities such as substance abuse, cardiomyopathy, psychosis, and dementia. More doctors per capita in the county of residence was associated with an increased likelihood of PASC diagnosis or care at a long-COVID clinic. Our findings were consistent in sensitivity analyses using a variety of analytic techniques and approaches to select controls. CONCLUSIONS: This national study identified important risk factors for PASC diagnosis such as middle age, severe COVID-19 disease, and specific comorbidities. Further clinical and epidemiological research is needed to better understand underlying mechanisms and the potential role of vaccines and therapeutics in altering PASC course.

Risk of post-acute sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 infection associated with pre-coronavirus disease obstructive sleep apnea diagnoses: an electronic health record-based analysis from the RECOVER initiative.

STUDY OBJECTIVES: Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) has been associated with more severe acute coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) outcomes. We assessed OSA as a potential risk factor for Post-Acute Sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 (PASC). METHODS: We assessed the impact of preexisting OSA on the risk for probable PASC in adults and children using electronic health record data from multiple research networks. Three research networks within the REsearching COVID to Enhance Recovery initiative (PCORnet Adult, PCORnet Pediatric, and the National COVID Cohort Collaborative [N3C]) employed a harmonized analytic approach to examine the risk of probable PASC in COVID-19-positive patients with and without a diagnosis of OSA prior to pandemic onset. Unadjusted odds ratios (ORs) were calculated as well as ORs adjusted for age group, sex, race/ethnicity, hospitalization status, obesity, and preexisting comorbidities. RESULTS: Across networks, the unadjusted OR for probable PASC associated with a preexisting OSA diagnosis in adults and children ranged from 1.41 to 3.93. Adjusted analyses found an attenuated association that remained significant among adults only. Multiple sensitivity analyses with expanded inclusion criteria and covariates yielded results consistent with the primary analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Adults with preexisting OSA were found to have significantly elevated odds of probable PASC. This finding was consistent across data sources, approaches for identifying COVID-19-positive patients, and definitions of PASC. Patients with OSA may be at elevated risk for PASC after SARS-CoV-2 infection and should be monitored for post-acute sequelae.

Vital Measurements of Hospitalized COVID-19 Patients as a Predictor of Long COVID: An EHR-based Cohort Study from the RECOVER Program in N3C.

It is shown that various symptoms could remain in the stage of post-acute sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 infection (PASC), otherwise known as Long COVID. A number of COVID patients suffer from heterogeneous symptoms, which severely impact recovery from the pandemic. While scientists are trying to give an unambiguous definition of Long COVID, efforts in prediction of Long COVID could play an important role in understanding the characteristic of this new disease. Vital measurements (e.g. oxygen saturation, heart rate, blood pressure) could reflect body's most basic functions and are measured regularly during hospitalization, so among patients diagnosed COVID positive and hospitalized, we analyze the vital measurements of first 7 days since the hospitalization start date to study the pattern of the vital measurements and predict Long COVID with the information from vital measurements.

Neural network methods for diagnosing patient conditions from cardiopulmonary exercise testing data.

BACKGROUND: Cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET) provides a reliable and reproducible approach to measuring fitness in patients and diagnosing their health problems. However, the data from CPET consist of multiple time series that require training to interpret. Part of this training teaches the use of flow charts or nested decision trees to interpret the CPET results. This paper investigates the use of two machine learning techniques using neural networks to predict patient health conditions with CPET data in contrast to flow charts. The data for this investigation comes from a small sample of patients with known health problems and who had CPET results. The small size of the sample data also allows us to investigate the use and performance of deep learning neural networks on health care problems with limited amounts of labeled training and testing data. METHODS: This paper compares the current standard for interpreting and classifying CPET data, flowcharts, to neural network techniques, autoencoders and convolutional neural networks (CNN). The study also investigated the performance of principal component analysis (PCA) with logistic regression to provide an additional baseline of comparison to the neural network techniques. RESULTS: The patients in the sample had two primary diagnoses: heart failure and metabolic syndrome. All model-based testing was done with 5-fold cross-validation and metrics of precision, recall, F1 score, and accuracy. As a baseline for comparison to our models, the highest performing flow chart method achieved an accuracy of 77%. Both PCA regression and CNN achieved an average accuracy of 90% and outperformed the flow chart methods on all metrics. The autoencoder with logistic regression performed the best on each of the metrics and had an average accuracy of 94%. CONCLUSIONS: This study suggests that machine learning and neural network techniques, in particular, can provide higher levels of accuracy with CPET data than traditional flowchart methods. Further, the CNN performed well with a small data set showing that these techniques can be designed to perform well on small data problems that are often found in health care and the life sciences. Further testing with larger data sets is needed to continue evaluating the use of machine learning to interpret CPET data.

Risk Factors Associated with Post-Acute Sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 in an EHR Cohort: A National COVID Cohort Collaborative (N3C) Analysis as part of the NIH RECOVER program.

Background: More than one-third of individuals experience post-acute sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 infection (PASC, which includes long-COVID). Objective: To identify risk factors associated with PASC/long-COVID. Design: Retrospective case-control study. Setting: 31 health systems in the United States from the National COVID Cohort Collaborative (N3C). Patients: 8,325 individuals with PASC (defined by the presence of the International Classification of Diseases, version 10 code U09.9 or a long-COVID clinic visit) matched to 41,625 controls within the same health system. Measurements: Risk factors included demographics, comorbidities, and treatment and acute characteristics related to COVID-19. Multivariable logistic regression, random forest, and XGBoost were used to determine the associations between risk factors and PASC. Results: Among 8,325 individuals with PASC, the majority were >50 years of age (56.6%), female (62.8%), and non-Hispanic White (68.6%). In logistic regression, middle-age categories (40 to 69 years; OR ranging from 2.32 to 2.58), female sex (OR 1.4, 95% CI 1.33-1.48), hospitalization associated with COVID-19 (OR 3.8, 95% CI 3.05-4.73), long (8-30 days, OR 1.69, 95% CI 1.31-2.17) or extended hospital stay (30+ days, OR 3.38, 95% CI 2.45-4.67), receipt of mechanical ventilation (OR 1.44, 95% CI 1.18-1.74), and several comorbidities including depression (OR 1.50, 95% CI 1.40-1.60), chronic lung disease (OR 1.63, 95% CI 1.53-1.74), and obesity (OR 1.23, 95% CI 1.16-1.3) were associated with increased likelihood of PASC diagnosis or care at a long-COVID clinic. Characteristics associated with a lower likelihood of PASC diagnosis or care at a long-COVID clinic included younger age (18 to 29 years), male sex, non-Hispanic Black race, and comorbidities such as substance abuse, cardiomyopathy, psychosis, and dementia. More doctors per capita in the county of residence was associated with an increased likelihood of PASC diagnosis or care at a long-COVID clinic. Our findings were consistent in sensitivity analyses using a variety of analytic techniques and approaches to select controls. Conclusions: This national study identified important risk factors for PASC such as middle age, severe COVID-19 disease, and specific comorbidities. Further clinical and epidemiological research is needed to better understand underlying mechanisms and the potential role of vaccines and therapeutics in altering PASC course.