Projected Life Expectancy for Adolescents With HIV in the US.

Importance: Life expectancy is a key measure of overall population health. Life expectancy estimates for youth with HIV in the US are needed in the current HIV care and treatment context to guide health policies and resource allocation. Objective: To compare life expectancy between 18-year-old youth with perinatally acquired HIV (PHIV), youth with nonperinatally acquired HIV (NPHIV), and youth without HIV. Design, Setting, and Participants: Using a US-focused adolescent-specific Monte Carlo state-transition HIV model, we simulated individuals from age 18 years until death. We estimated probabilities of HIV treatment and care engagement, HIV progression, clinical events, and mortality from observational cohorts and clinical trials for model input parameters. The simulated individuals were 18-year-old race and ethnicity-matched youth with PHIV, youth with NPHIV, and youth without HIV; 47%, 85%, and 50% were assigned male sex at birth, respectively. Individuals were categorized by US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention-defined HIV acquisition risk: men who have sex with men, people who ever injected drugs, heterosexually active individuals at increased risk for HIV infection, or average risk for HIV infection. Distributions were 3%, 2%, 12%, and 83% for youth with PHIV and youth without HIV, and 80%, 6%, 14%, and 0% for youth with NPHIV, respectively. Among the simulated youth in this analysis, individuals were 61% Black, 24% Hispanic, and 15% White, respectively. Exposures: HIV status by timing of acquisition. Main Outcomes: Life expectancy loss for youth with PHIV and youth with NPHIV: difference between mean projected life expectancy under current and ideal HIV care scenarios compared with youth without HIV. Uncertainty intervals reflect varying adolescent HIV-related mortality inputs (95% CIs). Results: Compared with youth without HIV (life expectancy: male, 76.3 years; female, 81.7 years), male youth with PHIV and youth with NPHIV had projected life expectancy losses of 10.4 years (95% CI, 5.5-18.1) and 15.0 years (95% CI, 9.3-26.8); female youth with PHIV and youth with NPHIV had projected life expectancy losses of 11.8 years (95% CI, 6.4-20.2) and 19.5 years (95% CI, 13.8-31.6), respectively. When receiving ideal HIV care, life expectancy losses were projected to improve for youth with PHIV (male: 0.5 years [95% CI, 0.3-1.8]: female: 0.6 years [95% CI, 0.4-2.1]) but were projected to persist for youth with NPHIV (male: 6.0 years [95% CI, 5.0-9.1]; female: 10.4 years [95% CI, 9.4-13.6]). Conclusions: This adolescent-focused microsimulation modeling analysis projected that youth with HIV would have shorter life expectancy than youth without HIV. Projected differences were larger for youth with NPHIV compared with youth with PHIV. Differences in mortality by sex at birth, sexual behavior, and injection drug use contributed to lower projected life expectancy among youth with NPHIV. Interventions focused on HIV care and social factors are needed to improve life expectancy for youth with HIV in the US.

Age-associated dementia among older people aging with HIV in the US: a modeling study.

OBJECTIVE: Almost 400 000 people with HIV (PWH) in the United States are over age 55 years and at risk for age-associated dementias (AAD), including Alzheimer's disease and vascular contributions to cognitive impairment and dementia (VCID). We projected the cumulative incidence and mortality associated with AAD among PWH at least 60 years in the United States compared with the general population. DESIGN/METHODS: Integrating the CEPAC and AgeD-Pol models, we simulated two cohorts of male and female individuals at least 60 years old: PWH, and general US population. We estimated AAD incidence and AAD-associated mortality rates. Projected outcomes included AAD cumulative incidence, life expectancy, and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). We performed sensitivity and scenario analyses on AAD-specific (e.g. incidence) and HIV-specific (e.g. disengagement from HIV care) parameters, as well as premature aging among PWH. RESULTS: We projected that 22.1%/16.3% of 60-year-old male individuals/female individuals with HIV would develop AAD by 80 years compared with 15.9%/13.3% of male individuals/female individuals in the general population. Accounting for age-associated and dementia-associated quality of life, 60-year-old PWH would have a lower life expectancy (QALYs): 17.4 years (14.1 QALYs) and 16.8 years (13.4 QALYs) for male and female individuals, respectively, compared with the general population [men, 21.7 years (18.4 QALYs); women, 24.7 years (20.2 QALYs)]. AAD cumulative incidence was most sensitive to non-HIV-related mortality, engagement in HIV care, and AAD incidence rates. CONCLUSION: Projected estimates of AAD-associated morbidity, mortality, and quality of life can inform decision-makers and health systems planning as the population of PWH ages. Improved AAD prevention, treatment, and supportive care planning are critical for people aging with HIV.

The Utilization of Protamine during Peripheral Vascular Interventions in the VQI.

BACKGROUND: Protamine administration was shown to reduce bleeding after carotid surgery but the role of protamine during peripheral vascular interventions (PVIs) remains unknown. This study evaluates the trend and outcomes of protamine use in the Vascular Quality Initiative (VQI). Our hypothesis is that the use of protamine is associated with decreased bleeding after PVI. METHODS: Patients undergoing elective PVI in the VQI (2016-2020) for peripheral arterial disease were reviewed and the utilization trend for protamine was described. The characteristics of patients undergoing PVI with and without protamine use were compared. After propensity score matching based on the patient's comorbidities, access site, and procedural characteristics, the perioperative outcomes of both groups were compared using multivariable Poisson regression to estimate adjusted rate ratios (aRRs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs). RESULTS: The total number of patients was 131,618 and patients who received protamine constituted 29.8% of the sample (N = 38,191). After propensity matching, the total number of patients was 94,582, and patients who received protamine constituted 28.8% of the sample (N = 27,275). Protamine use significantly increased during the study period from 5.2 to 22.9%. Before propensity score matching, patients who received protamine were more likely to be white (79% vs. 76.8, P ≤ 0.001), smokers (80.5% vs. 78.5%, P ≤ 0.001), with medical comorbidities including hypertension (88.9% vs. 88.5%, P = 0.074), congestive heart failure (20.5% vs. 19.8%, P = 0.006), and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (28.2% vs. 26.5%). They were also more likely to be on perioperative medications such as P2Y12 inhibitors (44.3% vs. 45, P = 0.013%) and statin (77.4% vs. 76.5%, P = 0.001) compared to patients who did not receive protamine. After propensity matching, there were no significant differences between the 2 groups. There was a significant decrease in bleeding during procedures where protamine was administered compared to no protamine (2.0% vs. 2.2%) (aRR, 0.89 [95% CI 0.80, 0.98]). Protamine was more likely to be given in procedures complicated by perforation (0.8% vs. 0.5%) (aRR, 1.48 [95% CI 1.24, 1.76]) and less likely to be given during procedures with distal embolization (0.4% vs. 0.7%) (aRR, 0.59 [95% CI 0.49, 0.73]). However, patients receiving protamine had significantly higher cardiac complications (1.4% vs. 1.1%) (aRR, 1.27 [95% CI 1.12, 1.43]). There was no significant difference in mortality between the 2 groups. CONCLUSIONS: Protamine use is associated with decreased perioperative bleeding but increased cardiac complications. Protamine should be selectively administered to patients at high risk of bleeding during PVI.

Projected Life Expectancy Gains From Improvements in HIV Care in Black and White Men Who Have Sex With Men.

Importance: Substantial racial inequities exist across the HIV care continuum between non-Hispanic Black and White men who have sex with men (MSM) in the US. Objectives: To project years of life gained (YLG) with improving the HIV care continuum among Black MSM and White MSM in the US and to determine the outcomes of achieving health equity goals. Design, Setting, and Participants: The Cost-Effectiveness of Preventing AIDS Complications microsimulation model was used and populated with 2021 race-specific data to simulate HIV care among Black MSM and White MSM in the US who have acquired HIV. Analyses were completed from July 2021 to October 2023. Intervention: The study simulated status quo care using race-specific estimates: age at infection, time to diagnosis, receipt of care, and virologic suppression. The study next projected the outcomes of attaining equity-centered vs non-equity-centered goals by simulating 2 equal improvements in care goals: (10-point increased receipt of care and 5-point increased virologic suppression), 3 equity-centered goals (annual HIV testing, 95% receiving HIV care, and 95% virologic suppression) and lastly, an equitable care continuum that achieves annual HIV testing, 95% receiving care, and 95% virologic suppression in Black MSM and White MSM. One-way and multiway sensitivity and scenario analyses were conducted. Main Outcomes and Measures: Mean age at death and YLG. Results: In the simulated cohort, the mean (SD) age at HIV infection was 27.0 (10.8) years for Black MSM and 35.5 (13.6) years for White MSM. In status quo, mean age at death would be 68.8 years for Black MSM and 75.6 years for White MSM. The equal improvements in care goals would result in 0.5 YLG for Black MSM and 0.5 to 0.9 YLG for White MSM. Achieving any 1 equity-centered goal would result in 0.5 to 1.7 YLG for Black MSM and 0.4 to 1.3 YLG for White MSM. With an equitable care continuum compared with the nationally reported status quo, Black MSM and White MSM would gain 3.5 and 2.1 life-years, respectively. If the status quo HIV testing was every 6 years with 75% retained in care and 75% virologically suppressed, Black MSM would gain 4.2 life-years with an equitable care continuum. Conclusions and Relevance: In this simulation modeling study of HIV care goals, equal improvements in HIV care for Black and White MSM maintained or worsened inequities. These results suggest that equity-centered goals for the HIV care continuum are critical to mitigate long-standing inequities in HIV outcomes.

Racial Disparities in Periprosthetic Joint Infections after Primary Total Joint Arthroplasty: A Retrospective Study.

In the United States, racial disparities have been observed in complications following total joint arthroplasty (TJA), including readmissions and mortality. It is unclear whether such disparities also exist for periprosthetic joint infection (PJI). The clinical data registry of a large New England hospital system was used to identify patients who underwent TJA between January 2018 and December 2021. The comorbidities were evaluated using the Elixhauser Comorbidity Index (ECI). We used Poisson regression to assess the relationship between PJI and race by estimating cumulative incidence ratios (cIRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). We adjusted for age and sex and examined whether ECI was a mediator using structural equation modeling. The final analytic dataset included 10,018 TJAs in 9681 individuals [mean age (SD) 69 (10)]. The majority (96.5%) of the TJAs were performed in non-Hispanic (NH) White individuals. The incidence of PJI was higher among NH Black individuals (3.1%) compared with NH White individuals (1.6%) [adjusted cIR = 2.12, 95%CI = 1.16-3.89; p = 0.015]. Comorbidities significantly mediated the association between race and PJI, accounting for 26% of the total effect of race on PJI incidence. Interventions that increase access to high-quality treatments for comorbidities before and after TJA may reduce racial disparities in PJI.

Neighborhood Social Environment and Body Mass Index: The Mediating Role of Mental Wellbeing.

The association between neighborhood-built environment and body mass index (BMI) is well-characterized, whereas fewer studies have explored the mechanisms underlying the relationship between neighborhood social environment and obesogenic behaviors. Using data from a random sample of 16,820 residents ≥18 years from all 169 Connecticut towns and seven ZIP Codes in New York, this study examines the influence of neighborhood social environment on residents' mental wellbeing, physical activity, and BMI. Structural equation modeling was conducted to estimate direct and indirect effects of neighborhood social environment on BMI, using mental wellbeing and physical activity as intermediate variables. There were significant total [ß(SE) = 0.741 (0.170), p < 0.0001], direct [ß(SE) = 0.456 (0.1890), p = 0.016], and indirect [ß(SE) = 0.285 (0.061), p < 0.0001] effects of neighborhood social environment on BMI. Low physical activity was a partial mediator of the effect of non-favorable neighborhood social environment on BMI [ß(SE) = -0.071 (0.011), p < 0.0001]. The association between neighborhood social environment and BMI was also mediated by mental wellbeing [ß(SE) = 0.214 (0.060), p < 0.0001], and by mental wellbeing through physical activity [ß(SE) = 0.071 (0.011), p < 0.0001]. Study findings provide further support for building strong social environments to improve population health and suggest that strategies prioritizing mental wellbeing may benefit behavioral interventions aimed at reducing obesity risk and should be a focus of prevention efforts in and of itself.

The association between all-cause mortality and HIV acquisition risk groups in the United States, 2001-2014.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate associations between all-cause mortality and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) acquisition risk groups among people without HIV in the United States. METHODS: We used data from 23,657 (NHANES) participants (2001-2014) and the Linked Mortality File to classify individuals without known HIV into HIV acquisition risk groups: people who ever injected drugs (ever-PWID); men who have sex with men (MSM); heterosexually active people at increased risk for HIV (HIH), using low income as a proxy for increased risk. We used Cox proportional hazards models to estimate adjusted and unadjusted all-cause mortality hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). RESULTS: Compared with sex-specific heterosexually active people at average risk for HIV (HAH), the adjusted HR (95% CI) were: male ever-PWID 1.67 (1.14, 2.46), female ever-PWID 3.50 (2.04, 6.01), MSM 1.51 (1.00, 2.27), male HIH 1.68 (1.04, 2.06), female HIH 2.35 (1.87, 2.95), and male ever-PWID 1.67 (1.14, 2.46). CONCLUSIONS: Most people at increased risk for HIV in the US experience higher all-cause mortality than people at average risk. Strategies addressing social determinants that increase HIV risk should be incorporated into HIV prevention and other health promotion programs.

Systematic Review and Meta-analysis of Linkage to HIV Care Interventions in the United States, Canada, and Ukraine (2010-2021).

We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of interventions targeting linkage to HIV care in the US, Canada, and Europe. We searched six databases (PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Library, Web of Science and CINAHL). Inclusion criteria were English language studies in adults in the US, Canada, or Europe, published January 1, 2010 to January 1, 2021. We synthesized interventions by type and linkage to care outcome. The outcome was cumulative incidence of 3-month linkage. We estimated cumulative incidence ratios of linkage with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). We screened 945 studies; 13 met selection criteria (n = 1 from Canada, n = 1 from Ukraine, n = 11 from the US) and were included after full text review (total 37,549 individuals). The cumulative incidence of 3-month linkage in the intervention group was 0.82 (95% CI 0.68-0.94) and control group 0.71 (95% CI 0.50-0.90); cIR of linkage for intervention versus control was 1.30 (95% CI 1.13, 1.49). Interventions to improve linkage to care after HIV diagnosis warrant further attention.

Evaluation of Hepatitis C Treatment Outcomes Among Patients Enrolled in Outpatient Parenteral Antibiotic Therapy-Boston, Massachusetts, 2016-2021.

In our Boston-based outpatient parenteral antibiotic therapy (OPAT) program between 2016 and 2021, we found that a low proportion of patients with active hepatitis C virus (HCV) were prescribed HCV treatment by their OPAT provider and few achieved sustained virologic response. Clinicians should consider concurrent HCV treatment during OPAT.

Impact of pre-exposure prophylaxis uptake among gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men in urban centers in Brazil: a modeling study.

BACKGROUND: Men who have sex with men (MSM) in Brazil remain disproportionately affected by HIV. We estimated the potential incidence reduction by five years with increased uptake of publicly-funded, daily, oral tenofovir/emtricitabine (TDF/FTC) for HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) among MSM using the Cost Effectiveness of Preventing AIDS Complications microsimulation model. We used national data, local studies, and literature to inform model parameters for three cities: Rio de Janeiro, Salvador, and Manaus. RESULTS: In Rio de Janero, a PrEP intervention achieving 10% uptake within 60 months would decrease incidence by 2.3% whereas achieving 60% uptake within 24 months would decrease incidence by 29.7%; results were similar for Salvador and Manaus. In sensitivity analyses, decreasing mean age at PrEP initiation from 33 to 21 years increased incidence reduction by 34%; a discontinuation rate of 25% per year decreased it by 12%. CONCLUSION: Targeting PrEP to young MSM and minimizing discontinuation could substantially increase PrEP's impact.

Factors Associated With Coronavirus Disease 2019 Vaccine Uptake Among Pregnant Women and Nonpregnant Women of Reproductive Age in Jamaica.

Background: Despite high rates of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)-related maternal mortality, Jamaica currently has little data on COVID-19 vaccine uptake among pregnant women. Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional, web-based survey of 192 reproductive-aged women in Jamaica from February 1 to 8, 2022. Participants were recruited from a convenience sample of patients, providers, and staff at a teaching hospital. We assessed self-reported COVID-19 vaccination status and COVID-19-related medical mistrust (operationalized as vaccine confidence, government mistrust, and race-based mistrust). We used multivariable modified Poisson regression to test the association between vaccine uptake and pregnancy. Results: Of 192 respondents, 72 (38%) were pregnant. Most (93%) were Black. Vaccine uptake was 35% in pregnant women versus 75% in nonpregnant women. Pregnant women were more likely to cite healthcare providers versus the government as trustworthy sources of COVID-19 vaccine information (65% vs 28%). Pregnancy, low vaccine confidence, and government mistrust were associated with a lower likelihood of COVID-19 vaccination (adjusted prevalence ratio [aPR] = 0.68 [95% confidence interval {CI}, .49-.95], aPR = 0.61 [95% CI, .40-.95], and aPR = 0.68 [95% CI, .52-.89], respectively). Race-based mistrust was not associated with COVID-19 vaccination in the final model. Conclusions: Pregnancy, low vaccine confidence, and government mistrust were associated with a lower likelihood of COVID-19 vaccination among reproductive-aged women in Jamaica. Future studies should evaluate the efficacy of strategies proven to improve maternal vaccination coverage, including standing "opt-out" vaccination orders and collaborative provider and patient-led educational videos tailored for pregnant individuals. Strategies that decouple vaccine messaging from government agencies also warrant evaluation.

The Clinical Impact and Cost-Effectiveness of Clinic-Based Cognitive Behavioral Therapy for People With HIV, Depression, and Virologic Failure in South Africa.

BACKGROUND: Depression affects 25%-30% of people with HIV (PWH) in the Republic of South Africa (RSA) and is associated with both antiretroviral therapy (ART) nonadherence and increased mortality. We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of task-shifted, cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT) for PWH with diagnosed depression and virologic failure from a randomized trial in RSA. SETTING: RSA. METHODS: Using the Cost-Effectiveness of Preventing AIDS Complications model, we simulated both trial strategies: enhanced treatment as usual (ETAU) and ETAU plus CBT for ART adherence and depression (CBT-AD; 8 sessions plus 2 follow-ups). In the trial, viral suppression at 1 year was 20% with ETAU and 32% with CBT-AD. Model inputs included mean initial age (39 years) and CD4 count (214/µL), ART costs ($7.5-22/mo), and CBT costs ($29/session). We projected 5- and 10-year viral suppression, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), lifetime costs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs: $/QALY [discounted 3%/yr]; cost-effectiveness threshold: ≤$2545/QALY [0.5× per capita GDP]). In sensitivity analyses, we determined how input parameter variation affected cost-effectiveness. RESULTS: Model-projected 5- and 10-year viral suppression were 18.9% and 8.7% with ETAU and 21.2% and 9.7% with CBT-AD, respectively. Compared with ETAU, CBT-AD would increase discounted life expectancy from 4.12 to 4.68 QALYs and costs from $6210/person to $6670/person (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio: $840/QALY). CBT-AD would remain cost-effective unless CBT-AD cost >$70/session and simultaneously improved 1-year viral suppression by ≤4% compared with ETAU. CONCLUSIONS: CBT for PWH with depression and virologic failure in RSA could improve life expectancy and be cost-effective. Such targeted mental health interventions should be integrated into HIV care.

Pre-exposure Prophylaxis Persistence at a Diverse Sexual Health Clinic: Comparison of the pre-COVID-19 era to the COVID-19 era.

The COVID-19 pandemic interrupted health care delivery and exacerbated disparities. Many sexual health clinics transitioned to telemedicine, including for pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP). We conducted a retrospective cohort study of patients at an urban sexual health clinic to assess the likelihood and predictors of PrEP persistence in the year following PrEP initiation. We compared patients starting PrEP in the four months preceding the first COVID surge to those starting PrEP one year prior. We found lower PrEP persistence in the COVID cohort compared to the pre-COVID cohort (50.8% vs. 68.9%, respectively). In both cohorts, most care was provided through in-person visits and telemedicine was rare. In the pre-COVID cohort, older patients and those identifying as non-Hispanic White were more likely to persist on PrEP. In the COVID cohort, these disparities in PrEP persistence were not observed. Flexible models of care may facilitate equitable care engagement and re-engagement.

A Growing Number of Men Who Have Sex With Men Aging With HIV (20212031): A Comparison of Two Microsimulation Models.

BACKGROUND: Men who have sex with men (MSM) on antiretroviral therapy (ART) are at risk for multimorbidity as life expectancy increases. Simulation models can project population sizes and age distributions to assist with health policy planning. METHODS: We populated the CEPAC-US model with CDC data to project the HIV epidemic among MSM in the United States. The PEARL model was predominantly informed by NA-ACCORD data (20092017). We compared projected population sizes and age distributions of MSM receiving ART (20212031) and investigated how parameters and assumptions affected results. RESULTS: We projected an aging and increasing population of MSM on ART: CEPAC-US, mean age 48.6 (SD 13.7) years in 2021 versus 53.9 (SD 15.0) years in 2031; PEARL, 46.7 (SD 13.2) years versus 49.2 (SD 14.6) years. We projected 548 800 MSM on ART (147 020 65 years) in 2031 (CEPAC-US) and 599 410 (113 400 65 years) (PEARL). Compared with PEARL, CEPAC-US projected a smaller population of MSM on ART by 2031 and a slower increase in population size, driven by higher estimates of disengagement in care and mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Findings from two structurally distinct microsimulation models suggest that the MSM population receiving ART in the United States will increase and age over the next decade. Subgroup-specific data regarding engagement in care and mortality can improve projections and inform health care policy planning.

Association of co-occurring mental health problems with hepatitis C status among young people who inject drugs in rural New Mexico, 2016-2018.

BACKGROUND: Injection drug use (IDU) remains the strongest risk factor for hepatitis C virus (HCV) in the United States. HCV rates are increasing in rural areas among young adult people who inject drugs (PWID). People with HCV and PWID have disproportionate rates of mental health problems; however, it is unclear whether risky injection behaviors mediate the association between mental health problems and HCV. We examined the association between mental health problems and HCV in a rural cohort of young adult PWID, with the goal of informing rural service delivery. METHODS: We conducted a secondary analysis of cross-sectional data from a convenience sample of young adult PWID in 2 rural counties in New Mexico. Participants were recruited from 2 community venues between September 2016 and May 2018. Associations between mental health problems and HCV were examined using bivariate (Fisher's exact) and multivariable modified Poisson regression analyses (with robust standard errors). Using structural equation modeling (SEM), we assessed duration of IDU and receptive syringe sharing (RSS) as mediators of this relationship. RESULTS: A total of 263 patients were enrolled, with a median age of 26.1 years. The majority were male (66.3%) and Hispanic/Latino (a) (87.6%). The median age first injected was 19 years, and over half reported having ever engaged in RSS (53.4%). At least one mental health problem was reported by 60.1% of participants, with post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) being the most prevalent condition (42.2%). A majority (60.9%) tested positive for HCV antibody, and just under half (45.7%) of all participants tested positive for HCV ribonucleic acid. In SEM, PTSD had a significant total effect on HCV (τ = 0.230, P = 0.05), and this relationship was partially mediated by duration of IDU (αß = 0.077, P = 0.03). The association between mental health problems and HCV was partially mediated by duration of IDU and the sequential mediation of duration of IDU and RSS (αß + αßß = 0.091, P = 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: High HCV rates among young adult PWID in rural New Mexico may be partly explained by mental health problems, duration of IDU and RSS. Mental health services for young adult PWID in rural areas may help decrease HCV transmission in rural areas. Trial Registration N/A.

Development and validation of the age-associated dementia policy (AgeD-Pol) computer simulation model in the USA and Europe.

OBJECTIVE: To develop and validate a novel, microsimulation model that accounts for the prevalence and incidence of age-associated dementias (AAD), disease progression and associated mortality. DESIGN, DATA SOURCES AND OUTCOME MEASURES: We developed the AAD policy (AgeD-Pol) model, a microsimulation model to simulate the natural history, morbidity and mortality associated with AAD. We populated the model with age-stratified and sex-stratified data on AAD prevalence, AAD incidence and mortality among people with AAD. We first performed internal validation using data from the Adult Changes in Thought (ACT) cohort study. We then performed external validation of the model using data from the Framingham Heart Study, the Rotterdam Study and Kaiser Permanente Northern California (KPNC). We compared model-projected AAD cumulative incidence and mortality with published cohort data using mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and root-mean-square error (RMSE). RESULTS: In internal validation, the AgeD-Pol model provided a good fit to the ACT cohort for cumulative AAD incidence, 10.4% (MAPE, 0.2%) and survival, 66.5% (MAPE, 8.8%), after 16 years of follow-up among those initially aged 65-69 years. In the external validations, the model-projected lifetime cumulative incidence of AAD was 30.5%-32.4% (females) and 16.7%-23.0% (males), using data from the Framingham and Rotterdam cohorts, and AAD cumulative incidence was 21.5% over 14 years using KPNC data. Model projections demonstrated a good fit to all three cohorts (MAPE, 0.9%-9.0%). Similarly, model-projected survival provided good fit to the Rotterdam (RMSE, 1.9-3.6 among those with and without AAD) and KPNC cohorts (RMSE, 7.6-18.0 among those with AAD). CONCLUSIONS: The AgeD-Pol model performed well when validated to published data for AAD cumulative incidence and mortality and provides a useful tool to project the AAD disease burden for health systems planning in the USA.

Cost-effectiveness of Coronavirus Disease 2019 Vaccination in Low- and Middle-Income Countries.

BACKGROUND: Despite the advent of safe and effective coronavirus disease 2019 vaccines, pervasive inequities in global vaccination persist. METHODS: We projected health benefits and donor costs of delivering vaccines for up to 60% of the population in 91 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). We modeled a highly contagious (Re at model start, 1.7), low-virulence (infection fatality ratio [IFR], 0.32%) "Omicron-like" variant and a similarly contagious "severe" variant (IFR, 0.59%) over 360 days, accounting for country-specific age structure and healthcare capacity. Costs included vaccination startup (US$630 million) and per-person procurement and delivery (US$12.46/person vaccinated). RESULTS: In the Omicron-like scenario, increasing current vaccination coverage to achieve at least 15% in each of the 91 LMICs would prevent 11 million new infections and 120 000 deaths, at a cost of US$0.95 billion, for an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of US$670/year of life saved (YLS). Increases in vaccination coverage to 60% would additionally prevent up to 68 million infections and 160 000 deaths, with ICERs

Health Impact and Cost-Effectiveness of HIV Testing, Linkage, and Early Antiretroviral Treatment in the Botswana Combination Prevention Project.

BACKGROUND: The Botswana Combination Prevention Project tested the impact of combination prevention (CP) on HIV incidence in a community-randomized trial. Each trial arm had ∼55,000 people, 26% HIV prevalence, and 72% baseline ART coverage. Results showed intensive testing and linkage campaigns, expanded antiretroviral treatment (ART), and voluntary male medical circumcision referrals increased coverage and decreased incidence over ∼29 months of follow-up. We projected lifetime clinical impact and cost-effectiveness of CP in this population. SETTING: Rural and periurban communities in Botswana. METHODS: We used the Cost-Effectiveness of Preventing AIDS Complications model to estimate lifetime health impact and cost of (1) earlier ART initiation and (2) averting an HIV infection, which we applied to incremental ART initiations and averted infections calculated from trial data. We determined the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio [US$/quality-adjusted life-years (QALY)] for CP vs. standard of care. RESULTS: In CP, 1418 additional people with HIV initiated ART and an additional 304 infections were averted. For each additional person started on ART, life expectancy increased 0.90 QALYs and care costs increased by $869. For each infection averted, life expectancy increased 2.43 QALYs with $9200 in care costs saved. With CP, an additional $1.7 million were spent on prevention and $1.2 million on earlier treatment. These costs were mostly offset by decreased care costs from averted infections, resulting in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $79 per QALY. CONCLUSIONS: Enhanced HIV testing, linkage, and early ART initiation improve life expectancy, reduce transmission, and can be cost-effective or cost-saving in settings like Botswana.

Pediatric biorepository participation during the COVID-19 pandemic: predictors of enrollment and biospecimen donation.

BACKGROUND: Patient-level predictors of enrollment in pediatric biorepositories are poorly described. Especially in pandemic settings, understanding who is likely to enroll in a biorepository is critical to interpreting analyses conducted on biospecimens. We describe predictors of pediatric COVID-19 biorepository enrollment and biospecimen donation to identify gaps in COVID-19 research on pediatric biospecimens. METHODS: We compared data from enrollees and non-enrollees aged 0-25 years with suspected or confirmed COVID-19 infection who were approached for enrollment in the Massachusetts General Hospital pediatric COVID-19 biorepository between April 12, 2020, and May 28, 2020, from community or academic outpatient or inpatient settings. Demographic and clinical data at presentation to care were from automatic and manual chart extractions. Predictors of enrollment and biospecimen donation were assessed with Poisson regression models. RESULTS: Among 457 individuals approached, 214 (47%) enrolled in the biorepository. A COVID-19 epidemiologic risk factor was recorded for 53%, and 15% lived in a US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention-defined COVID-19 hotspot. Individuals living in a COVID-19 hotspot (relative risk (RR) 2.4 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.8-3.2]), with symptoms at presentation (RR 1.8 [95% CI: 1.2-2.7]), or admitted to hospital (RR 1.8 [95% CI: 1.2-2.8]) were more likely to enroll. Seventy-nine percent of enrollees donated any biospecimen, including 97 nasopharyngeal swabs, 119 oropharyngeal swabs, and 105 blood, 16 urine, and 16 stool specimens, respectively. Age, sex, race, ethnicity, and neighborhood-level socioeconomic status based on zip code did not predict enrollment or biospecimen donation. CONCLUSIONS: While fewer than half of individuals approached consented to participate in the pediatric biorepository, enrollment appeared to be representative of children affected by the pandemic. Living in a COVID-19 hotspot, symptoms at presentation to care and hospital admission predicted biorepository enrollment. Once enrolled, most individuals donated a biospecimen.

The effects of acculturation and environment on lifestyle behaviors in Korean immigrants: the mediating role of acculturative stress and body image discrepancy.

OBJECTIVES: Despite high rates of cardiometabolic diseases in Korean immigrants (KIs), little is known about cultural and environmental factors contributing to lifestyle behaviors. The purpose of this cross-sectional study was to examine the relationships among acculturation, environment, and lifestyle behaviors (dietary behavior, physical activity, and sedentary behavior) through culturally sensitive psychological mediators, body image discrepancy and acculturative stress in middle-aged KIs. DESIGN: A cross-sectional study was conducted. KIs aged 30-65 years were recruited online and at Korean community centers and churches in the Northeastern US Participants completed validated measures of dietary behavior (the Nutrition Subscale of the Health Promoting Lifestyle Profile (HPLP) II), physical activity (the International Physical Activity Questionnaire (IPAQ) - short form), and sedentary behavior (the Sedentary Behavior Questionnaire). Acculturative stress was measured by the Acculturative Stress Index and body image discrepancy was measured by the Stunkard Figure Rating Scale. Acculturation was defined as a latent variable measured by Korean and American orientation (Vancouver Index of Acculturation), age of immigration to the US, length of residency in the US, and English proficiency. Data were analyzed with structural equation modeling (SEM). RESULTS: The sample included 361 KIs (mean age = 41.77 ± 10.28 years, 48.1% female, and 46.4% overweight or obese). In the SEM model, acculturation had significant indirect effects on dietary behavior, physical activity, and sedentary behavior through body image discrepancy. Acculturative stress mediated the relationship between acculturation and sedentary behavior. Greater environmental support for physical activity and better healthy food accessibility were related to higher levels of physical activity and healthier dietary behavior, respectively. CONCLUSION: In our study, acculturation and environmental support for physical activity and healthy food simultaneously influenced KIs' lifestyle behaviors. Addressing an unhealthy body image and acculturative stress may be additional strategies for lifestyle intervention programs to prevent cardiometabolic diseases in KIs.