Bypassing phase 2 in cancer drug development erodes the risk/benefit balance in phase 3 trials.

OBJECTIVES: Drug developers sometimes launch phase 3 (P3) trials without supporting evidence from phase 2 (P2) trials. We call this practice "P2 bypass." The aims of this study were to estimate the prevalence of P2 bypass and to compare the safety and efficacy results for P3 trials that bypassed with those that did not. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: We created a sample of P3 solid tumor trials registered on ClinicalTrials.gov with primary completion dates between 2013 and 2019. We then attempted to match each with a supporting P2 trial using strict and broad criteria. P3 outcomes were meta-analyzed using a random effects model with subgroup contrast between trials that bypassed and those that did not. RESULTS: 129 P3 trial arms met eligibility and nearly half involved P2 bypass. P3 trials involving P2 bypass produced significantly and nonsignificantly worse pooled efficacy estimates using broad and strict matching criteria, respectively. We did not observe significant differences in safety outcomes between P3 trials that bypassed P2 and those that did not. CONCLUSION: The risk/benefit balance of P3 trials that bypassed P2 is less favourable than for trials supported by P2.

Activation of TrkB-Akt signaling rescues deficits in a mouse model of SCA6.

Spinocerebellar ataxia type 6 (SCA6) is a neurodegenerative disease resulting in motor coordination deficits and cerebellar pathology. Expression of brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) is reduced in postmortem tissue from SCA6 patients. Here, we show that levels of cerebellar BDNF and its receptor, tropomyosin receptor kinase B (TrkB), are reduced at an early disease stage in a mouse model of SCA6 (SCA684Q/84Q). One month of exercise elevated cerebellar BDNF expression and improved ataxia and cerebellar Purkinje cell firing rate deficits. A TrkB agonist, 7,8-dihydroxyflavone (7,8-DHF), likewise improved motor coordination and Purkinje cell firing rate and elevated downstream Akt signaling. Prolonged 7,8-DHF administration persistently improved ataxia when treatment commenced near disease onset but was ineffective when treatment was started late. These data suggest that 7,8-DHF, which is orally bioavailable and crosses the blood-brain barrier, is a promising therapeutic for SCA6 and argue for the importance of early intervention for SCA6.

Completeness of clinical evidence citation in trial protocols: A cross-sectional analysis.

BACKGROUND: Human protection policies require assessment of how proposed clinical trials relate to prior and ongoing studies testing similar hypotheses. We assessed the extent to which clinical trial protocols cited relevant published and ongoing clinical trials that would have been easily accessible with reference searches. METHODS: We created a random sample of trial protocols using ClinicalTrials.gov, stratifying by industry and non-industry-sponsored studies. We then conducted reference searches to determine the extent to which protocols cited clinical trials with identical intervention-indication pairings that were accessible in PubMed and ClinicalTrials.gov at the time of trial initiation. FINDINGS: Of the 101 trial protocols evaluated, 73 had at least one identified citable trial. None contained statements suggesting a systematic search for relevant clinical evidence. Of industry-sponsored trial protocols with at least one identified citable trial, 7 of 23 (30.4%) did not cite any published clinical trials and 10 of 33 (30.3%) did not cite any ongoing relevant trials. Of the non-industry-sponsored trial protocols with at least one identified citable trial, 5 of 28 (17.9%) did not cite any published clinical trials and 14 of 19 (73.7%) did not cite any ongoing trials. CONCLUSIONS: Clinical trial protocols undercite accessible, relevant trials and do not document systematic searches for relevant clinical trials. Consequently, ethics review committees often receive an incomplete picture of the research landscape if they review protocols similar to those deposited on ClinicalTrials.gov. FUNDING: This study was funded by the Canadian Institutes of Health Research and the Greenwall Foundation.

Probability of Success and Timelines for the Development of Vaccines for Emerging and Reemerged Viral Infectious Diseases.

BACKGROUND: Anticipated success rates and timelines for COVID-19 vaccine development vary. Recent experience with developing and testing viral vaccine candidates can inform expectations regarding the development of safe and effective vaccines. OBJECTIVE: To estimate timelines and probabilities of success for recent vaccine candidates. DESIGN: ClinicalTrials.gov was searched to identify trials testing viral vaccines that had not advanced to phase 2 before 2005, and the progress of each vaccine from phase 1 through to U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) licensure was tracked. Trial characteristics were double-coded. (Registration: Open Science Framework [https://osf.io/dmuzx/]). SETTING: Trials launched between January 2005 and March 2020. PARTICIPANTS: Preventive viral vaccine candidates for 23 emerging or reemerged viral infectious diseases. MEASUREMENTS: The primary end point was the probability of vaccines advancing from launch of phase 2 to FDA licensure within 10 years. RESULTS: In total, 606 clinical trials forming 220 distinct development trajectories (267 343 enrolled participants) were identified. The probability of vaccines progressing from phase 2 to licensure within 10 years was 10.0% (95% CI, 2.6% to 16.9%), with most approvals representing H1N1 or H5N1 vaccines. The average timeline from phase 2 to approval was 4.4 years (range, 6.4 weeks to 13.9 years). The probabilities of advancing from phase 1 to 2, phase 2 to 3, and phase 3 to licensure within the total available follow-up time were 38.2% (CI, 30.7% to 45.0%), 38.3% (CI, 23.1% to 50.5%), and 61.1% (CI, 3.7% to 84.3%), respectively. LIMITATIONS: The study did not account for preclinical development and relied primarily on ClinicalTrials.gov and FDA resources. Success probabilities do not capture the varied reasons why vaccines fail to advance to regulatory approval. CONCLUSION: Success probabilities and timelines varied widely across different vaccine types and diseases. If a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine is licensed within 18 months of the start of the pandemic, it will mark an unprecedented achievement for noninfluenza viral vaccine development. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: McGill Interdisciplinary Initiative in Infection and Immunity (MI4) Emergency COVID-19 Research Funding program.