Using mortuary and burial data to place COVID-19 in Lusaka, Zambia within a global context.

Reported COVID-19 cases and associated mortality remain low in many sub-Saharan countries relative to global averages, but true impact is difficult to estimate given limitations around surveillance and mortality registration. In Lusaka, Zambia, burial registration and SARS-CoV-2 prevalence data during 2020 allow estimation of excess mortality and transmission. Relative to pre-pandemic patterns, we estimate age-dependent mortality increases, totalling 3212 excess deaths (95% CrI: 2104-4591), representing an 18.5% (95% CrI: 13.0-25.2%) increase relative to pre-pandemic levels. Using a dynamical model-based inferential framework, we find that these mortality patterns and SARS-CoV-2 prevalence data are in agreement with established COVID-19 severity estimates. Our results support hypotheses that COVID-19 impact in Lusaka during 2020 was consistent with COVID-19 epidemics elsewhere, without requiring exceptional explanations for low reported figures. For more equitable decision-making during future pandemics, barriers to ascertaining attributable mortality in low-income settings must be addressed and factored into discourse around reported impact differences.

Alternative epidemic indicators for COVID-19 in three settings with incomplete death registration systems.

Not all COVID-19 deaths are officially reported, and particularly in low-income and humanitarian settings, the magnitude of reporting gaps remains sparsely characterized. Alternative data sources, including burial site worker reports, satellite imagery of cemeteries, and social media-conducted surveys of infection may offer solutions. By merging these data with independently conducted, representative serological studies within a mathematical modeling framework, we aim to better understand the range of underreporting using examples from three major cities: Addis Ababa (Ethiopia), Aden (Yemen), and Khartoum (Sudan) during 2020. We estimate that 69 to 100%, 0.8 to 8.0%, and 3.0 to 6.0% of COVID-19 deaths were reported in each setting, respectively. In future epidemics, and in settings where vital registration systems are limited, using multiple alternative data sources could provide critically needed, improved estimates of epidemic impact. However, ultimately, these systems are needed to ensure that, in contrast to COVID-19, the impact of future pandemics or other drivers of mortality is reported and understood worldwide.

The Evolution of Plasmid Transfer Rate in Bacteria and Its Effect on Plasmid Persistence.

AbstractPlasmids are extrachromosomal segments of DNA that can transfer genes between bacterial cells. Many plasmid genes benefit bacteria but cause harm to human health by granting antibiotic resistance to pathogens. Transfer rate is a key parameter for predicting plasmid dynamics, but observed rates are highly variable, and the effects of selective forces on their evolution are unclear. We apply evolutionary analysis to plasmid conjugation models to investigate selective pressures affecting plasmid transfer rate, emphasizing host versus plasmid control, the costs of plasmid transfer, and the role of recipient cells. Our analyses show that plasmid-determined transfer rates can be predicted with three parameters (host growth rate, plasmid loss rate, and the cost of plasmid transfer on growth) under some conditions. We also show that low-frequency genetic variation in transfer rate can accumulate, facilitating rapid adaptation to changing conditions. Furthermore, reduced transfer rates due to host control have limited effects on plasmid prevalence until low enough to prevent plasmid persistence. These results provide a framework to predict plasmid transfer rate evolution in different environments and demonstrate the limited impact of host mechanisms to control the costs incurred when plasmids are present.

The role of hosts, plasmids and environment in determining plasmid transfer rates: A meta-analysis.

Plasmids transfer at highly variable rates that spread over 10 orders of magnitude. While rates have been measured for decades and it is known that the rates are affected bysome biotic and abiotic factors, it is unclear how and to what extent these factors determine the rates of transfer. We performed a meta-analysis of 1224 published transfer rates from 33 papers (filtered to 612 transfer rates) to assess this variation. Over three quarters of the variation can be predicted, with plasmid repression and media type (solid versus liquid) identified as general variables explaining the most variation. Of the host and plasmid identities, identity of the recipient bacterium explained the most variation, up to 34% in some models, and more than any other explanatory variable. These results emphasize the role of the recipient in determining the rate of transfer, and show an improved range of transfer values and their correlates that can be used in future when modeling plasmid persistence.

Inhibition of the renin-angiotensin system for lowering coronary artery disease risk.

The renin-angiotensin system when activated exerts proliferative and pro-inflammatory actions and thereby contributes to progression of atherosclerosis, including that occurring in the coronary arteries. It thus contributes as well to coronary artery disease (CAD). Several clinical trials have examined effects of renin-angiotensin system inhibition for primary and secondary prevention of coronary heart disease. These include important trials such as HOPE, EUROPA and PEACE using angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors, VALIANT, OPTIMAAL and TRANSCEND using angiotensin receptor blockers, and the ongoing TOPCAT study in patients with preserved ejection fraction heart failure, many of who also have coronary artery disease. Data are unavailable as yet of effects of either direct renin inhibitors or the new angiotensin receptor/neprilysin inhibitor agents. Today, inhibition of the renin-angiotensin system is standard-of-care therapy for lowering cardiovascular risk in secondary prevention in high cardiovascular risk subjects.

Cardiotoxicity of cancer therapeutics: current issues in screening, prevention, and therapy.

In the context of modern cancer chemotherapeutics, cancer survivors are living longer and being exposed to potential comorbidities related to non-cancer side effects of such treatments. With close monitoring of cancer patients receiving potentially cardiotoxic medical therapies, oncologists, and cardiologists alike are identifying patients in both clinical and subclinical phases of cardiovascular disease related to such chemotherapies. Specifically, cardiotoxicity at the level of the myocardium and potential for the development of heart failure are becoming a growing concern with increasing survival of cancer patients. Traditional chemotherapeutic agents used commonly in the treatment of breast cancer and hematologic malignancies, such as anthracyclines and HER-2 antagonists, are well known to be associated with cardiovascular sequelae. Patients often present without symptoms and an abnormal cardiac imaging study performed as part of routine evaluation of patients receiving cardiotoxic therapies. Additionally, patients can present with signs and symptoms of cardiovascular disease months to years after receiving the chemotherapies. As the understanding of the physiology underlying the various cancers has grown, therapies have been developed that target specific molecules that represent key aspects of physiologic pathways responsible for cancer growth. Inhibition of these pathways, such as those involving tyrosine kinases, has lead to the potential for cardiotoxicity as well. In view of the potential cardiotoxicity of specific chemotherapies, there is a growing interest in identifying patients who are at risk of cardiotoxicity prior to becoming symptomatic or developing cardiotoxicity that may limit the use of potentially life-saving chemotherapy agents. Serological markers and novel cardiac imaging techniques have become the source of many investigations with the goal of screening patients for pre-clinical cardiotoxicity. Additionally, studies have been performed.

Heart rate recovery--a potential marker of clinical outcomes in heart failure patients receiving beta-blocker therapy.

BACKGROUND: Heart rate recovery (HRR) within the first few minutes of graded exercise has been associated with impaired clinical outcomes in patients being evaluated for coronary artery disease. HRR is abnormal in patients with heart failure (HF), but has not been associated with clinical outcomes in these patients. The objective of the present study was to determine whether HRR following cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET) correlates with peak oxygen consumption (VO(2)), and whether it impacts clinical outcomes, including HF hospitalizations and total mortality, or the need for cardiac transplantation. METHODS: CPET was performed in 78 patients referred to the Montreal Heart Institute (Montreal, Quebec) with congestive HF between January 2000 and December 2002. All patients had New York Heart Association class II or III HF with a left ventricular ejection fraction of 45% or lower. Mean (+/- SD) age was 53+/-11 years and left ventricular ejection fraction was 27+/-9%. Forty-four per cent had ischemic cardiomyopathy, 88% received beta-blockers and 79% received angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors. HRR was defined as the difference from peak exercise HR to HR measured at specific time intervals. HRR was calculated 30 s, 60 s, 90 s and 120 s after exercise. RESULTS: Mean peak VO(2) was 18.0+/-5.3 mL/kg/min, resting HR was 74+/-13 beats/min and peak HR was 119+/-22 beats/min. HRR measured was 10+/-9 beats/min after 30 s, 20+/-12 beats/min after 60 s, 25+/-15 beats/min after 90 s and 30+/-13 beats/min after 120 s. At 90 s, patients with an HRR below 24 beats/min were more likely to have an HF hospitalization at five-year follow-up (eight hospitalizations [22.2%] versus two hospitalizations [2.7%]; P=0.0134). There was a correlation between peak VO(2) and HRR 90 s and 120 s after completion of the exercise test (r=0.40 after 90 s, P=0.001, and r=0.41 after 120 s, P=0.008). CONCLUSIONS: In patients with HF, blunted HRR 90 s and 120 s after CPET correlate with peak VO(2) and are associated with increased risk of worsening HF. HRR is easily measured and a useful marker for morbidity in patients with HF.