Associations between Johne's disease and fertility in UK dairy herds.

The objective of this observational study was to quantify associations between Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis (MAP) antibody status and a variety of fertility outcomes, in UK dairy cattle. Longitudinal milk recording, fertility and MAP antibody enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) milk test data were collated retrospectively from 121,762 lactations in 78 herds. Datasets were structured into appropriate units to suit outcomes and enable temporal association between current and future MAP status, and fertility measures. Current MAP status was categorised according to most recent status within 180 days, with time-related future MAP status assigned based on MAP antibody ELISA milk test data for each cow. Multilevel multivariable logistic regression models were used to evaluate associations between MAP status and 21-day pregnancy and submission rate and conception risk. Posterior predictions and cross-validation techniques were used to assess model fit and check model building assumptions. A negative association was found between risk of insemination (Odds Ratio [OR], 0.78; 95% Credible Interval [CI], 0.66-0.92) and conception occurring (OR, 0.65; CI, 0.5-0.84) and transition from negative to non-negative MAP test status in the next 30-90 days. A positive association was observed between risk of insemination (OR, 1.34; CI, 1.16-1.52) and conception occurring (OR, 1.26; CI, 1.11-1.43) and transition from negative to non-negative MAP test status in the next 90-180 days. Current positive MAP test status was negatively and positively associated with insemination (OR, 0.59; CI, 0.49-0.70) and conception risk (OR, 1.12; CI, 0.96-1.30), respectively. Herd managers will have had access to test results, declaring cows with past recent or multiple positive MAP antibody ELISA results not to be bred, negatively influencing insemination risk. Overall, these results demonstrate the temporal association between a positive MAP antibody ELISA result and dairy cow fertility outcomes, with particular variability prior to a positive MAP antibody ELISA result.

The association between age at first calving and survival of first lactation heifers within dairy herds.

The objective of this research was to evaluate the survival rate of primiparous heifers within a large sample of herds across the United Kingdom and specifically to assess the association between age at first calving (AFC) on their survival. Data from 437 herds were re-structured for analysis. Descriptive statistics were calculated, and a multilevel logistic regression model was used to explore factors associated with the risk of first lactation culling. Potential explanatory variables included AFC, herd size, culling rate within the whole herd, calving season, herd mean 305-day yield and herd mean calving interval. The mean within-herd culling rate for the primiparous heifers was 15.9%. The mean within-herd AFC was 29.6 months, with 35.9% of heifers having an AFC >30 months of age. Multivariable analysis revealed a negative association between survival rate of primiparous heifers and increasing AFC, and also associations with herd culling rate in older cows and calving season. This study highlights the importance of AFC for survival of primiparous heifers, as well as the need to address heifer wastage in herds with high culling rates.

Prediction of intramammary infection status across the dry period from lifetime cow records.

The dry period is very important for mammary gland health, with the aim not only to cure existing intramammary infections (IMI) but also to prevent new IMI. Although it is known that the dry period is an important time for optimizing udder health, the probability that individual cows will succumb to a new IMI or, if infected, will fail to cure an IMI is not well established. The aim of this study was to investigate whether lifetime cow data, available through routine on-farm milk recording, could be used to predict changes in IMI status across the dry period for individual cows that were (1) deemed high somatic cell count (SCC; >199,000 cells/mL) or (2) low SCC (<200,000 cells/mL) at the last test day before drying off. Milk recording data collected between September 1994 and July 2014 from 114 herds in the United Kingdom were used. Two 2-level random effects models were built and both cure and new IMI were used as outcome variables in separate models. Cows with a smaller proportion of test days with a high SCC in the lactation before drying off, a smaller proportion of test days recording a high SCC in the lactation before the current lactation, of lower parity, producing less milk before drying off, of lower days in milk at drying off, and of lower SCC just before drying off were more likely to cure across the dry period. Dry period length had no effect on the likelihood of cure. Individual cows with a smaller proportion of test days recording a high SCC in the lactation before the current, of lower parity, of lower milk production at drying off, and fewer days in milk at drying off were less likely to develop a new IMI. Dry period length was found to have no effect on the probability of new IMI. Model predictions showed that a high level of discrimination was possible between cows with a high and low risk of both cures and new infections across the dry period.