Histological validation of a type 1 diabetes clinical diagnostic model for classification of diabetes.

AIMS: Misclassification of diabetes is common due to an overlap in the clinical features of type 1 and type 2 diabetes. Combined diagnostic models incorporating clinical and biomarker information have recently been developed that can aid classification, but they have not been validated using pancreatic pathology. We evaluated a clinical diagnostic model against histologically defined type 1 diabetes. METHODS: We classified cases from the Network for Pancreatic Organ donors with Diabetes (nPOD) biobank as type 1 (n = 111) or non-type 1 (n = 42) diabetes using histopathology. Type 1 diabetes was defined by lobular loss of insulin-containing islets along with multiple insulin-deficient islets. We assessed the discriminative performance of previously described type 1 diabetes diagnostic models, based on clinical features (age at diagnosis, BMI) and biomarker data [autoantibodies, type 1 diabetes genetic risk score (T1D-GRS)], and singular features for identifying type 1 diabetes by the area under the curve of the receiver operator characteristic (AUC-ROC). RESULTS: Diagnostic models validated well against histologically defined type 1 diabetes. The model combining clinical features, islet autoantibodies and T1D-GRS was strongly discriminative of type 1 diabetes, and performed better than clinical features alone (AUC-ROC 0.97 vs. 0.95; P = 0.03). Histological classification of type 1 diabetes was concordant with serum C-peptide [median < 17 pmol/l (limit of detection) vs. 1037 pmol/l in non-type 1 diabetes; P < 0.0001]. CONCLUSIONS: Our study provides robust histological evidence that a clinical diagnostic model, combining clinical features and biomarkers, could improve diabetes classification. Our study also provides reassurance that a C-peptide-based definition of type 1 diabetes is an appropriate surrogate outcome that can be used in large clinical studies where histological definition is impossible. Parts of this study were presented in abstract form at the Network for Pancreatic Organ Donors Conference, Florida, USA, 19-22 February 2019 and Diabetes UK Professional Conference, Liverpool, UK, 6-8 March 2019.

Persistent C-peptide is associated with reduced hypoglycaemia but not HbA1c in adults with longstanding Type 1 diabetes: evidence for lack of intensive treatment in UK clinical practice?

AIMS: Most people with Type 1 diabetes have low levels of persistent endogenous insulin production. The Diabetes Control and Complications Trial showed that close to diagnosis preserved endogenous insulin was associated with lower HbA1c , hypoglycaemia and complication rates, when intensively treated. We aimed to assess the clinical impact of persistent C-peptide on rate of hypoglycaemia and HbA1c in those with long duration (> 5 years) Type 1 diabetes. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional case-control study of 221 people (median age 24 years) with Type 1 diabetes. We confirmed ongoing endogenous insulin secretion by measuring C-peptide after a mixed-meal tolerance test. We compared self-reported hypoglycaemia (n = 160), HbA1c , insulin dose and microvascular complications (n = 140) in those with preserved and low C-peptide. RESULTS: Stimulated median (IQR) C-peptide was 114 (43, 273) pmol/l and < 3 (< 3, < 3) pmol/l in those with preserved and low C-peptide respectively. Participants with preserved C-peptide had lower reported monthly rates of hypoglycaemia, with 21% fewer symptomatic episodes, 5.9 vs. 7.5 [incidence rate ratio (IRR) 0.79, P = 0.001], and 65% fewer asymptomatic episodes, 1.0 vs. 2.9 (IRR 0.35, P < 0.001). Those with preserved C-peptide had a lower insulin dose (0.68 vs. 0.81 units/kg, P = 0.01) but similar HbA1c (preserved 69 vs. low 67 mmol/mol, P = 0.06). CONCLUSIONS: Adults with Type 1 diabetes and preserved endogenous insulin production receiving usual care in the UK have lower daily insulin doses and fewer self-reported hypoglycaemic episodes, but no difference in HbA1c . This is consistent with non-intensive treatment in previous studies, and suggests a need to consider therapy intensification to gain full benefit of preserved endogenous insulin.

Random non-fasting C-peptide: bringing robust assessment of endogenous insulin secretion to the clinic.

BACKGROUND: Measuring endogenous insulin secretion using C-peptide can assist diabetes management, but standard stimulation tests are impractical for clinical use. Random non-fasting C-peptide assessment would allow testing when a patient is seen in clinic. METHODS: We compared C-peptide at 90 min in the mixed meal tolerance test (sCP) with random non-fasting blood C-peptide (rCP) and random non-fasting urine C-peptide creatinine ratio (rUCPCR) in 41 participants with insulin-treated diabetes [median age 72 (interquartile range 68-78); diabetes duration 21 (14-31) years]. We assessed sensitivity and specificity for previously reported optimal mixed meal test thresholds for severe insulin deficiency (sCP < 200 pmol//l) and Type 1 diabetes/inability to withdraw insulin (< 600 pmol//l), and assessed the impact of concurrent glucose. RESULTS: rCP and sCP levels were similar (median 546 and 487 pmol//l, P = 0.92). rCP was highly correlated with sCP, r = 0.91, P < 0.0001, improving to r = 0.96 when excluding samples with concurrent glucose < 8 mmol//l. An rCP cut-off of 200 pmol//l gave 100% sensitivity and 93% specificity for detecting severe insulin deficiency, with area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.99. rCP < 600 pmol//l gave 87% sensitivity and 83% specificity to detect sCP < 600 pmol//l. Specificity improved to 100% when excluding samples with concurrent glucose < 8 mmol//l. rUCPCR (0.52 nmol/mmol) was also well-correlated with sCP, r = 0.82, P < 0.0001. A rUCPCR cut-off of < 0.2 nmol/ mmol gave sensitivity and specificity of 83% and 93% to detect severe insulin deficiency, with area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.98. CONCLUSIONS: Random non-fasting C-peptide measures are strongly correlated with mixed meal C-peptide, and have high sensitivity and specificity for identifying clinically relevant thresholds. These tests allow assessment of C-peptide at the point patients are seen for clinical care.

The impact of insulin administration during the mixed meal tolerance test.

AIMS: The mixed meal tolerance test is the gold standard measure of endogenous insulin secretion. Practical issues limit the routine clinical use of this test, including omitting insulin prior to the ingestion of a high-carbohydrate liquid mixed meal, which can result in marked hyperglycaemia. We aimed to assess whether insulin omission is necessary during the mixed meal tolerance test and whether fasting C-peptide was a practical alternative to the test. METHODS: Ninety-one adults with insulin-treated diabetes (Type 1 n = 56, Type 2 n = 35) underwent two mixed meal tolerance tests; one standard without insulin and one with the patient's usual morning insulin. RESULTS: The 90-min serum C-peptide was highly correlated in the standard mixed meal tolerance test and the test with insulin (r = 0.98, P < 0.0001). There was a 20% reduction in the peak C-peptide value when insulin was given {test with insulin [0.39 (0.01-1.16) vs. test without insulin 0.48 (0.01-1.36) nmol/l, P = 0.001]}, but the original serum C-peptide cut-off for significant endogenous insulin secretion (≥ 0.2 nmol/l) still correctly classified 90/91 patients (98% sensitivity/100% specificity). Fasting serum C-peptide was highly correlated to 90-min serum C-peptide during the test (r = 0.97, P < 0.0001). A fasting serum C-peptide ≥ 0.07 nmol/l was the optimal cut-off (100% sensitivity and 97% specificity) for significant endogenous insulin secretion (defined as 90-min stimulated serum C-peptide ≥ 0.2 nmol/l). CONCLUSIONS: Insulin omission may not always be necessary during a mixed meal tolerance test and fasting serum C-peptide may offer a practical alternative in insulin-treated patients.

The development and validation of a clinical prediction model to determine the probability of MODY in patients with young-onset diabetes.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Diagnosing MODY is difficult. To date, selection for molecular genetic testing for MODY has used discrete cut-offs of limited clinical characteristics with varying sensitivity and specificity. We aimed to use multiple, weighted, clinical criteria to determine an individual's probability of having MODY, as a crucial tool for rational genetic testing. METHODS: We developed prediction models using logistic regression on data from 1,191 patients with MODY (n = 594), type 1 diabetes (n = 278) and type 2 diabetes (n = 319). Model performance was assessed by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, cross-validation and validation in a further 350 patients. RESULTS: The models defined an overall probability of MODY using a weighted combination of the most discriminative characteristics. For MODY, compared with type 1 diabetes, these were: lower HbA(1c), parent with diabetes, female sex and older age at diagnosis. MODY was discriminated from type 2 diabetes by: lower BMI, younger age at diagnosis, female sex, lower HbA(1c), parent with diabetes, and not being treated with oral hypoglycaemic agents or insulin. Both models showed excellent discrimination (c-statistic = 0.95 and 0.98, respectively), low rates of cross-validated misclassification (9.2% and 5.3%), and good performance on the external test dataset (c-statistic = 0.95 and 0.94). Using the optimal cut-offs, the probability models improved the sensitivity (91% vs 72%) and specificity (94% vs 91%) for identifying MODY compared with standard criteria of diagnosis <25 years and an affected parent. The models are now available online at www.diabetesgenes.org . CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: We have developed clinical prediction models that calculate an individual's probability of having MODY. This allows an improved and more rational approach to determine who should have molecular genetic testing.

Validation of a single-sample urinary C-peptide creatinine ratio as a reproducible alternative to serum C-peptide in patients with Type 2 diabetes.

AIMS: Serum C-peptide can be used in Type 2 diabetes as a measure of endogenous insulin secretion, but practicalities of collection limit its routine clinical use. Urine C-peptide creatinine ratio is a non-invasive alternative that is stable for at least 3 days at room temperature in boric acid preservative. We aimed to assess the utility of urine C-peptide creatinine ratio in individuals with Type 2 diabetes as an alternative to serum C-peptide. METHODS: We assessed, in 77 individuals with Type 2 diabetes, the reproducibility of, and correlations between, fasting and postprandial urine C-peptide creatinine ratio and serum C-peptide, and the impact of renal impairment (estimated glomerular filtration rate < 60 ml min(-1) 1.73 m(-2)) on these correlations. RESULTS: Urine C-peptide creatinine ratio was at least as reproducible as serum C-peptide [fasting coefficient of variation mean (95% CI): 28 (21-35)% vs. 38 (26-59)% and 2-h post-meal 26 (18-33)% vs. 27 (20-34)%. Urine C-peptide creatinine ratio 2 h post-meal was correlated with stimulated serum C-peptide, both the 2-h value (r = 0.64, P < 0.001) and the 2-h area under the C-peptide curve (r = 0.63, P < 0.001). The association seen was similar in patients with and without moderate renal impairment (P = 0.6). CONCLUSIONS: In patients with Type 2 diabetes, a single urine C-peptide creatinine ratio is a stable, reproducible measure that is well correlated with serum C-peptide following meal stimulation, even if there is moderate renal impairment. Urine C-peptide creatinine ratio therefore has potential for use in clinical practice in the assessment of Type 2 diabetes.

Urine C-peptide creatinine ratio is an alternative to stimulated serum C-peptide measurement in late-onset, insulin-treated diabetes.

AIMS: Serum C-peptide measurement can assist clinical management of diabetes, but practicalities of collection limit widespread use. Urine C-peptide creatinine ratio may be a non-invasive practical alternative. The stability of C-peptide in urine allows outpatient or community testing. We aimed to assess how urine C-peptide creatinine ratio compared with serum C-peptide measurement during a mixed-meal tolerance test in individuals with late-onset, insulin-treated diabetes. METHODS: We correlated the gold standard of a stimulated serum C-peptide in a mixed-meal tolerance test with fasting and stimulated (mixed-meal tolerance test, standard home meal and largest home meal) urine C-peptide creatinine ratio in 51 subjects with insulin-treated diabetes (diagnosis after age 30 years, median age 66 years, median age at diagnosis 54, 42 with Type 2 diabetes, estimated glomerular filtration rate > 60 ml min(-1) 1.73 m(-2) ). RESULTS: Ninety-minute mixed-meal tolerance test serum C-peptide is correlated with mixed-meal tolerance test-stimulated urine C-peptide creatinine ratio (r = 0.82), urine C-peptide creatinine ratio after a standard breakfast at home (r = 0.73) and urine C-peptide creatinine ratio after largest home meal (r = 0.71). A stimulated (largest home meal) urine C-peptide creatinine ratio cut-off of 0.3 nmol/mmol had a 100% sensitivity and 96% specificity (area under receiver operating characteristic curve = 0.99) in identifying subjects without clinically significant endogenous insulin secretion (mixed-meal tolerance test-stimulated C-peptide < 0.2 nmol/l). In detecting a proposed serum C-peptide threshold for insulin requirement (stimulated serum C-peptide < 0.6 nmol/l), a stimulated (largest home meal) urine C-peptide creatinine ratio cut-off of 0.6 nmol/mmol had a sensitivity and specificity of 92%. CONCLUSION: In patients with insulin-treated diabetes diagnosed after age 30 years, urine C-peptide creatinine ratio is well correlated with serum C-peptide and may provide a practical alternative measure to detect insulin deficiency for use in routine clinical practice.

Increased all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in monogenic diabetes as a result of mutations in the HNF1A gene.

AIMS: To investigate all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in subjects with diabetes caused by a mutation in the hepatocyte nuclear factor 1alpha gene (HNF1A). METHODS: We identified 39 British families with HNF1A mutations. Consenting individuals were asked details of age and cause of death of parents and siblings. Copies of death certificates were requested from the family or were obtained via the Offices for National Statistics. RESULTS: Data were collated on 241 control subjects and 153 mutation carriers. Of those who died, 66% of mutation carriers died from a cardiovascular-related illness compared with 43% of control subjects (P = 0.02). Family members with HNF1A mutations died at a younger age than familial control subjects [all-cause hazard ratio, adjusting for sex and smoking status: 1.9 (95% confidence interval 1.2, 2.9, P = 0.006; cardiovascular hazard ratio: 2.3, confidence interval 1.3, 4.2, P = 0.006)]. CONCLUSIONS: We have shown that individuals known to have diabetes caused by a mutation in the HNF1A gene have an increased risk of cardiovascular mortality compared with their unaffected family members. As with other forms of diabetes, consideration should be given to early statin therapy despite a seemingly protective lipid profile.

Maturity-onset diabetes of the young (MODY): how many cases are we missing?

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Maturity-onset diabetes of the young is frequently misdiagnosed as type 1 or type 2 diabetes. A correct diagnosis of MODY is important for determining treatment, but can only be confirmed by molecular genetic testing. We aimed to compare the regional distribution of confirmed MODY cases in the UK and to estimate the minimum prevalence. METHODS: UK referrals for genetic testing in 2,072 probands and 1,280 relatives between 1996 and 2009 were examined by region, country and test result. Referral rate and prevalence were calculated using UK Census 2001 figures. RESULTS: MODY was confirmed in 1,177 (35%) patients, with HNF1A (52%) and GCK mutations (32%) being most frequent in probands confirmed with MODY. There was considerable regional variation in proband referral rates (from <20 per million in Wales and Northern Ireland to >50 per million for South West England and Scotland) and patients diagnosed with MODY (5.3 per million in Northern Ireland, 48.9 per million in South West England). Referral rates and confirmed cases were highly correlated (r = 0.96, p < 0.0001). The minimum prevalence of MODY was estimated to be 108 cases per million. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Assuming this minimal prevalence throughout the UK then >80% of MODY is not diagnosed by molecular testing. The marked regional variation in the prevalence of confirmed MODY directly results from differences in referral rates. This could reflect variation in awareness of MODY or unequal access to genetic testing. Increased referral for diagnostic testing is required if the majority of MODY patients are to have the genetic diagnosis necessary for optimal treatment.

Genetic influences on the association between fetal growth and susceptibility to type 2 diabetes.

The fetal insulin hypothesis proposes that low birth weight and susceptibility to type 2 diabetes (T2D) could both be two phenotypes of the same genotype. Insulin is a key growth factor in utero, and T2D is characterized by insulin resistance and/or beta-cell dysfunction. Therefore, genetic variants impacting on insulin secretion and action are likely to alter both fetal growth and susceptibility to T2D. There are three lines of evidence in support of this hypothesis. (1) Studies of rare monogenic diabetes have shown mutations in a single gene, such as GCK or KCNJ11, can cause diabetes by reducing insulin secretion, and these mutations are also associated with reduced birth weight. (2) Epidemiological studies have indicated that children born to fathers with diabetes are born smaller. As the father cannot influence the intrauterine environment, this association is likely to reflect genes inherited by the fetus from the father. (3) The most compelling evidence comes from recent genome-wide association studies. Variants in the CDKAL1 and HHEX-IDE genes that predispose to diabetes, if present in the fetus, are associated with reduced birth weight. These data provide evidence for a genetic contribution to the association between low birth weight and susceptibility to T2D. This genetic background is important to take into consideration when investigating the impact of environmental determinants and developing strategies for intervention and prevention.

Asian MODY: are we missing an important diagnosis?

AIMS: Maturity onset diabetes of the young (MODY) is a monogenic form of diabetes where correct diagnosis alters treatment, prognosis and genetic counselling. The first UK survey of childhood MODY identified 20 White, but no Asian children with MODY. We hypothesized that MODY causes diabetes in UK Asians, but is underdiagnosed. METHODS: Children with dominant family histories of diabetes were recruited. Direct sequencing for mutations in the two most common MODY genes; HNF1A (TCF1) and GCK was performed in autoantibody-negative probands. We also compared MODY testing data for Asian and White cases from the Exeter MODY database, to 2001 UK census data. RESULTS: We recruited 30 families and identified three Asian families with MODY gene mutations (two HNF1A, one GCK) and three White UK families (two HNF1A, one GCK). Heterozygous MODY phenotypes were similar in Asians and Whites. Only eight (0.5%) of 1369 UK referrals for MODY testing were known to be Asian, but in 2001 Asians represented 4% of the English/Welsh population and have a higher prevalence of diabetes. CONCLUSIONS: We identified three cases of childhood MODY in UK Asians and demonstrated reduced rates of MODY testing in Asians, which has negative implications for treatment. It is unclear why this is. MODY should be considered in autoantibody-negative Asian diabetes patients lacking evidence of insulin resistance.

Offspring birthweight is not associated with paternal insulin resistance.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Low birthweight is associated with insulin resistance and other insulin resistance-related phenotypes: diabetes, hypertension, and vascular disease in later life. The underlying mechanism is unclear. The foetal insulin hypothesis proposes that a single genetic predisposition to beta cell dysfunction/insulin resistance results in both reduced insulin-dependent foetal growth in utero, hence low birthweight, and predisposition to type 2 diabetes. The aim of this study was to test whether, as predicted by the foetal insulin hypothesis, there is an association between measures of paternal insulin resistance and offspring birthweight. SUBJECTS AND METHODS: The Exeter Family Study of Childhood Health (EFSOCH) is a community-based study within central Exeter (UK), established to test the foetal insulin hypothesis prospectively. Associations were tested between offspring birthweight and paternal insulin resistance, calculated by homeostasis model assessment analysis in 986 families using data relating to singleton, non-diabetic, UK white pregnancies. Ethics approval was given by the North and East Devon local ethics committee. RESULTS: Offspring birthweight was not significantly correlated with log paternal insulin resistance (r=0, p=0.91), log HDL cholesterol concentration (r=-0.02, p=0.47) or log triglyceride concentration (r=0, p=0.99) when corrected for paternal BMI and common confounders. Multiple linear regression analysis confirmed that paternal insulin resistance was not an independent predictor of offspring birthweight. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Results from a young, adult, non-diabetic population do not support the foetal insulin hypothesis as an explanation for the association of low birthweight with insulin resistance.

Paternal insulin resistance and its association with umbilical cord insulin concentrations.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Fetal growth is influenced by genetic factors as well as the intra-uterine environment. We hypothesised that some genetic factors may alter fetal insulin secretion and insulin action. SUBJECTS, MATERIALS AND METHODS: To assess this, we analysed plasma insulin concentration in umbilical cord blood from 644 normal, term, UK Caucasian deliveries from the Exeter Family Study of Childhood Health. We tested for associations between cord insulin and each of parental anthropometry, fasting glucose, insulin and lipids. RESULTS: As expected, cord insulin concentrations correlated with all measures of birth size (weight, length, head and arm circumferences, sum of skinfold thicknesses, ponderal index: r=0.16-0.4, p<0.01 for all) and maternal BMI (r=0.11, p=0.005), maternal glucose (r=0.25, p<0.001) and maternal insulin resistance (r=0.23, p<0.001). Paternal fasting insulin and insulin resistance were correlated with cord insulin (r=0.15, p=0.006; r=0.13, p=0.001, respectively), and this was independent of paternal BMI. Multiple linear regression analysis revealed paternal insulin resistance to be a predictor of cord insulin concentrations, independently of maternal factors. CONCLUSION: Our results show an independent relationship between paternal insulin resistance and cord insulin concentrations. This is consistent with heritability of insulin resistance from father to offspring and a compensatory increase in fetal insulin secretion, the latter occurring pre-natally before the homeostatic feedback loop between glucose and insulin is established.

Determinants of insulin concentrations in healthy 1-week-old babies in the community: applications of a bloodspot assay.

BACKGROUND: Epidemiological research into insulin secretion and insulin action would be helped by improved ability to measure insulin concentrations in large groups of healthy babies in the neonatal period. Such research is often restricted by the invasive nature of blood sampling. AIMS: We assessed the use of an assay that can measure insulin from bloodspots taken during routine Guthrie testing 7 days after delivery. STUDY DESIGN AND SUBJECTS: Insulin and glucose were measured in 366 seven-day-old infants from heel-prick bloodspots. Time since last feed and type of feed were recorded. RESULTS: Bloodspot insulin concentrations in normal 7-day-old infants were much lower (median (IQR): 15.4 pmol/l (<10-28.5)) than fasting insulin concentrations in adult males (44.3 pmol/l (30.6-72.6)) (p<0.001). Insulin and glucose concentrations were correlated (r=0.33, p<0.001). Insulin and glucose fell significantly with time from feed. Bottle fed infants had higher insulin concentrations but similar glucose concentrations compared to breast fed infants. Detailed analysis to account for confounders was limited due to the skewed distribution of time since feed and the lower limit of the assay leading to non-continuous insulin data. CONCLUSIONS: In the largest study of normal 7-day-old children to date we have shown insulin concentrations are low compared to adults and vary with glucose, time from feed, and type of feed. This validates the use of the bloodspot insulin assay as a potential research tool for large-scale epidemiological studies. However, careful study design would be required in future use to reduce the variation caused by timing and type of feeding and the problem of one third of values being at or below the lower limit of this assay.