Continuous glucose monitoring and intrapersonal variability in fasting glucose.

Plasma fasting glucose (FG) levels play a pivotal role in the diagnosis of prediabetes and diabetes worldwide. Here we investigated FG values using continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) devices in nondiabetic adults aged 40-70 years. FG was measured during 59,565 morning windows of 8,315 individuals (7.16 ± 3.17 days per participant). Mean FG was 96.2 ± 12.87 mg dl-1, rising by 0.234 mg dl-1 per year with age. Intraperson, day-to-day variability expressed as FG standard deviation was 7.52 ± 4.31 mg dl-1. As there are currently no CGM-based criteria for diabetes diagnosis, we analyzed the potential implications of this variability on the classification of glycemic status based on current plasma FG-based diagnostic guidelines. Among 5,328 individuals who would have been considered to have normal FG based on the first FG measurement, 40% and 3% would have been reclassified as having glucose in the prediabetes and diabetes ranges, respectively, based on sequential measurements throughout the study. Finally, we revealed associations between mean FG and various clinical measures. Our findings suggest that careful consideration is necessary when interpreting FG as substantial intraperson variability exists and highlight the potential impact of using CGM data to refine glycemic status assessment.

Genome-wide association studies and polygenic risk score phenome-wide association studies across complex phenotypes in the human phenotype project.

BACKGROUND: Genome-wide association studies (GWASs) associate phenotypes and genetic variants across a study cohort. GWASs require large-scale cohorts with both phenotype and genetic sequencing data, limiting studied phenotypes. The Human Phenotype Project is a longitudinal study that has measured a wide range of clinical and biomolecular features from a self-assignment cohort over 5 years. The phenotypes collected are quantitative traits, providing higher-resolution insights into the genetics of complex phenotypes. METHODS: We present the results of GWASs and polygenic risk score phenome-wide association studies with 729 clinical phenotypes and 4,043 molecular features from the Human Phenotype Project. This includes clinical traits that have not been previously associated with genetics, including measures from continuous sleep monitoring, continuous glucose monitoring, liver ultrasound, hormonal status, and fundus imaging. FINDINGS: In GWAS of 8,706 individuals, we found significant associations between 169 clinical traits and 1,184 single-nucleotide polymorphisms. We found genes associated with both glycemic control and mental disorders, and we quantify the strength of genetic signals in serum metabolites. In polygenic risk score phenome-wide association studies for clinical traits, we found 16,047 significant associations. CONCLUSIONS: The entire set of findings, which we disseminate publicly, provides newfound resolution into the genetic architecture of complex human phenotypes. FUNDING: E.S. is supported by the Minerva foundation with funding from the Federal German Ministry for Education and Research and by the European Research Council and the Israel Science Foundation.

Impact of dietary interventions on pre-diabetic oral and gut microbiome, metabolites and cytokines.

Diabetes and associated comorbidities are a global health threat on the rise. We conducted a six-month dietary intervention in pre-diabetic individuals (NCT03222791), to mitigate the hyperglycemia and enhance metabolic health. The current work explores early diabetes markers in the 200 individuals who completed the trial. We find 166 of 2,803 measured features, including oral and gut microbial species and pathways, serum metabolites and cytokines, show significant change in response to a personalized postprandial glucose-targeting diet or the standard of care Mediterranean diet. These changes include established markers of hyperglycemia as well as novel features that can now be investigated as potential therapeutic targets. Our results indicate the microbiome mediates the effect of diet on glycemic, metabolic and immune measurements, with gut microbiome compositional change explaining 12.25% of serum metabolites variance. Although the gut microbiome displays greater compositional changes compared to the oral microbiome, the oral microbiome demonstrates more changes at the genetic level, with trends dependent on environmental richness and species prevalence in the population. In conclusion, our study shows dietary interventions can affect the microbiome, cardiometabolic profile and immune response of the host, and that these factors are well associated with each other, and can be harnessed for new therapeutic modalities.

Gut microbiome modulates the effects of a personalised postprandial-targeting (PPT) diet on cardiometabolic markers: a diet intervention in pre-diabetes.

OBJECTIVE: To explore the interplay between dietary modifications, microbiome composition and host metabolic responses in a dietary intervention setting of a personalised postprandial-targeting (PPT) diet versus a Mediterranean (MED) diet in pre-diabetes. DESIGN: In a 6-month dietary intervention, adults with pre-diabetes were randomly assigned to follow an MED or PPT diet (based on a machine-learning algorithm for predicting postprandial glucose responses). Data collected at baseline and 6 months from 200 participants who completed the intervention included: dietary data from self-recorded logging using a smartphone application, gut microbiome data from shotgun metagenomics sequencing of faecal samples, and clinical data from continuous glucose monitoring, blood biomarkers and anthropometrics. RESULTS: PPT diet induced more prominent changes to the gut microbiome composition, compared with MED diet, consistent with overall greater dietary modifications observed. Particularly, microbiome alpha-diversity increased significantly in PPT (p=0.007) but not in MED arm (p=0.18). Post hoc analysis of changes in multiple dietary features, including food-categories, nutrients and PPT-adherence score across the cohort, demonstrated significant associations between specific dietary changes and species-level changes in microbiome composition. Furthermore, using causal mediation analysis we detect nine microbial species that partially mediate the association between specific dietary changes and clinical outcomes, including three species (from Bacteroidales, Lachnospiraceae, Oscillospirales orders) that mediate the association between PPT-adherence score and clinical outcomes of hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) and triglycerides. Finally, using machine-learning models trained on dietary changes and baseline clinical data, we predict personalised metabolic responses to dietary modifications and assess features importance for clinical improvement in cardiometabolic markers of blood lipids, glycaemic control and body weight. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings support the role of gut microbiome in modulating the effects of dietary modifications on cardiometabolic outcomes, and advance the concept of precision nutrition strategies for reducing comorbidities in pre-diabetes. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT03222791.

CGMap: Characterizing continuous glucose monitor data in thousands of non-diabetic individuals.

Despite its rising prevalence, diabetes diagnosis still relies on measures from blood tests. Technological advances in continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) devices introduce a potential tool to expand our understanding of glucose control and variability in people with and without diabetes. Yet CGM data have not been characterized in large-scale healthy cohorts, creating a lack of reference for CGM data research. Here we present CGMap, a characterization of CGM data collected from over 7,000 non-diabetic individuals, aged 40-70 years, between 2019 and 2022. We provide reference values of key CGM-derived clinical measures that can serve as a tool for future CGM research. We further explored the relationship between CGM-derived measures and diabetes-related clinical parameters, uncovering several significant relationships, including associations of mean blood glucose with measures from fundus imaging and sleep monitoring. These findings offer novel research directions for understanding the influence of glucose levels on various aspects of human health.

Estimating the effect of cesarean delivery on long-term childhood health across two countries.

Assessing the impact of cesarean delivery (CD) on long-term childhood outcomes is challenging as conducting a randomized controlled trial is rarely feasible and inferring it from observational data may be confounded. Utilizing data from electronic health records of 737,904 births, we defined and emulated a target trial to estimate the effect of CD on predefined long-term pediatric outcomes. Causal effects were estimated using pooled logistic regression and standardized survival curves, leveraging data breadth to account for potential confounders. Diverse sensitivity analyses were performed including replication of results in an external validation set from the UK including 625,044 births. Children born in CD had an increased risk to develop asthma (10-year risk differences (95% CI) 0.64% (0.31, 0.98)), an average treatment effect of 0.10 (0.07-0.12) on body mass index (BMI) z-scores at age 5 years old and 0.92 (0.68-1.14) on the number of respiratory infection events until 5 years of age. A positive 10-year risk difference was also observed for atopy (10-year risk differences (95% CI) 0.74% (-0.06, 1.52)) and allergy 0.47% (-0.32, 1.28)). Increased risk for these outcomes was also observed in the UK cohort. Our findings add to a growing body of evidence on the long-term effects of CD on pediatric morbidity, may assist in the decision to perform CD when not medically indicated and paves the way to future research on the mechanisms underlying these effects and intervention strategies targeting them.

Effects of personalized diets by prediction of glycemic responses on glycemic control and metabolic health in newly diagnosed T2DM: a randomized dietary intervention pilot trial.

BACKGROUND: Dietary modifications are crucial for managing newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and preventing its health complications, but many patients fail to achieve clinical goals with diet alone. We sought to evaluate the clinical effects of a personalized postprandial-targeting (PPT) diet on glycemic control and metabolic health in individuals with newly diagnosed T2DM as compared to the commonly recommended Mediterranean-style (MED) diet. METHODS: We enrolled 23 adults with newly diagnosed T2DM (aged 53.5 ± 8.9 years, 48% males) for a randomized crossover trial of two 2-week-long dietary interventions. Participants were blinded to their assignment to one of the two sequence groups: either PPT-MED or MED-PPT diets. The PPT diet relies on a machine learning algorithm that integrates clinical and microbiome features to predict personal postprandial glucose responses (PPGR). We further evaluated the long-term effects of PPT diet on glycemic control and metabolic health by an additional 6-month PPT intervention (n = 16). Participants were connected to continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) throughout the study and self-recorded dietary intake using a smartphone application. RESULTS: In the crossover intervention, the PPT diet lead to significant lower levels of CGM-based measures as compared to the MED diet, including average PPGR (mean difference between diets, - 19.8 ± 16.3 mg/dl × h, p < 0.001), mean glucose (mean difference between diets, - 7.8 ± 5.5 mg/dl, p < 0.001), and daily time of glucose levels > 140 mg/dl (mean difference between diets, - 2.42 ± 1.7 h/day, p < 0.001). Blood fructosamine also decreased significantly more during PPT compared to MED intervention (mean change difference between diets, - 16.4 ± 37 µmol/dl, p < 0.0001). At the end of 6 months, the PPT intervention leads to significant improvements in multiple metabolic health parameters, among them HbA1c (mean ± SD, - 0.39 ± 0.48%, p < 0.001), fasting glucose (- 16.4 ± 24.2 mg/dl, p = 0.02) and triglycerides (- 49 ± 46 mg/dl, p < 0.001). Importantly, 61% of the participants exhibited diabetes remission, as measured by HbA1c < 6.5%. Finally, some clinical improvements were significantly associated with gut microbiome changes per person. CONCLUSION: In this crossover trial in subjects with newly diagnosed T2DM, a PPT diet improved CGM-based glycemic measures significantly more than a Mediterranean-style MED diet. Additional 6-month PPT intervention further improved glycemic control and metabolic health parameters, supporting the clinical efficacy of this approach. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01892956.

The Gut Microbiome of Adults With Type 1 Diabetes and Its Association With the Host Glycemic Control.

OBJECTIVE: Previous studies have demonstrated an association between gut microbiota composition and type 1 diabetes (T1D) pathogenesis. However, little is known about the composition and function of the gut microbiome in adults with longstanding T1D or its association with host glycemic control. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We performed a metagenomic analysis of the gut microbiome obtained from fecal samples of 74 adults with T1D, 14.6 ± 9.6 years following diagnosis, and compared their microbial composition and function to 296 age-matched healthy control subjects (1:4 ratio). We further analyzed the association between microbial taxa and indices of glycemic control derived from continuous glucose monitoring measurements and blood tests and constructed a prediction model that solely takes microbiome features as input to evaluate the discriminative power of microbial composition for distinguishing individuals with T1D from control subjects. RESULTS: Adults with T1D had a distinct microbial signature that separated them from control subjects when using prediction algorithms on held-out subjects (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve = 0.89 ± 0.03). Linear discriminant analysis showed several bacterial species with significantly higher scores in T1D, including Prevotella copri and Eubacterium siraeum, and species with higher scores in control subjects, including Firmicutes bacterium and Faecalibacterium prausnitzii (P < 0.05, false discovery rate corrected for all). On the functional level, several metabolic pathways were significantly lower in adults with T1D. Several bacterial taxa and metabolic pathways were associated with the host's glycemic control. CONCLUSIONS: We identified a distinct gut microbial signature in adults with longstanding T1D and associations between microbial taxa, metabolic pathways, and glycemic control indices. Additional mechanistic studies are needed to identify the role of these bacteria for potential therapeutic strategies.

Pediatric Hospitalizations After School Reopening During the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Alpha (B.1.1.7) Variant Spread: A Multicenter Cross-sectional Study in Israel.

This multicenter, cross-sectional study provides evidence on severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)-associated emergency department visits and hospitalizations in pediatric wards and intensive care units after school reopening during the SARS-CoV-2 Alpha (B.1.1.7) variant spread in Israel. Study findings suggest that school reopening was not followed by an increase in SARS-CoV-2-related pediatric morbidity.

Prediction of Personal Glycemic Responses to Food for Individuals With Type 1 Diabetes Through Integration of Clinical and Microbial Data.

OBJECTIVE: Despite technological advances, results from various clinical trials have repeatedly shown that many individuals with type 1 diabetes (T1D) do not achieve their glycemic goals. One of the major challenges in disease management is the administration of an accurate amount of insulin for each meal that will match the expected postprandial glycemic response (PPGR). The objective of this study was to develop a prediction model for PPGR in individuals with T1D. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We recruited individuals with T1D who were using continuous glucose monitoring and continuous subcutaneous insulin infusion devices simultaneously to a prospective cohort and profiled them for 2 weeks. Participants were asked to report real-time dietary intake using a designated mobile app. We measured their PPGRs and devised machine learning algorithms for PPGR prediction, which integrate glucose measurements, insulin dosages, dietary habits, blood parameters, anthropometrics, exercise, and gut microbiota. Data of the PPGR of 900 healthy individuals to 41,371 meals were also integrated into the model. The performance of the models was evaluated with 10-fold cross validation. RESULTS: A total of 121 individuals with T1D, 75 adults and 46 children, were included in the study. PPGR to 6,377 meals was measured. Our PPGR prediction model substantially outperforms a baseline model with emulation of standard of care (correlation of R = 0.59 compared with R = 0.40 for predicted and observed PPGR respectively; P < 10-10). The model was robust across different subpopulations. Feature attribution analysis revealed that glucose levels at meal initiation, glucose trend 30 min prior to meal, meal carbohydrate content, and meal's carbohydrate-to-fat ratio were the most influential features for the model. CONCLUSIONS: Our model enables a more accurate prediction of PPGR and therefore may allow a better adjustment of the required insulin dosage for meals. It can be further implemented in closed loop systems and may lead to rationally designed nutritional interventions personally tailored for individuals with T1D on the basis of meals with expected low glycemic response.

Stress-related emotional and behavioural impact following the first COVID-19 outbreak peak.

The COVID-19 pandemic poses multiple psychologically stressful challenges and is associated with an increased risk for mental illness. Previous studies have focused on the psychopathological symptoms associated with the outbreak peak. Here, we examined the behavioural and mental-health impact of the pandemic in Israel using an online survey, during the six weeks encompassing the end of the first outbreak and the beginning of the second. We used clinically validated instruments to assess anxiety- and depression-related emotional distress, symptoms, and coping strategies, as well as questions designed to specifically assess COVID-19-related concerns. Higher emotional burden was associated with being female, younger, unemployed, living in high socioeconomic status localities, having prior medical conditions, encountering more people, and experiencing physiological symptoms. Our findings highlight the environmental context and its importance in understanding individual ability to cope with the long-term stressful challenges of the pandemic.

Personalized Postprandial Glucose Response-Targeting Diet Versus Mediterranean Diet for Glycemic Control in Prediabetes.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the clinical effects of a personalized postprandial-targeting (PPT) diet versus a Mediterranean (MED) diet on glycemic control and metabolic health in prediabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We randomly assigned adults with prediabetes (n = 225) to follow a MED diet or a PPT diet for a 6-month dietary intervention and additional 6-month follow-up. The PPT diet relies on a machine learning algorithm that integrates clinical and microbiome features to predict personal postprandial glucose responses. During the intervention, all participants were connected to continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) and self-reported dietary intake using a smartphone application. RESULTS: Among 225 participants randomized (58.7% women, mean ± SD age 50 ± 7 years, BMI 31.3 ± 5.8 kg/m2, HbA1c, 5.9 ± 0.2% [41 ± 2.4 mmol/mol], fasting plasma glucose 114 ± 12 mg/dL [6.33 ± 0.67 mmol/L]), 200 (89%) completed the 6-month intervention. A total of 177 participants also contributed 12-month follow-up data. Both interventions reduced the daily time with glucose levels >140 mg/dL (7.8 mmol/L) and HbA1c levels, but reductions were significantly greater in PPT compared with MED. The mean 6-month change in "time above 140" was -0.3 ± 0.8 h/day and -1.3 ± 1.5 h/day for MED and PPT, respectively (95% CI between-group difference -1.29 to -0.66, P < 0.001). The mean 6-month change in HbA1c was -0.08 ± 0.19% (-0.9 ± 2.1 mmol/mol) and -0.16 ± 0.24% (-1.7 ± 2.6 mmol/mol) for MED and PPT, respectively (95% CI between-group difference -0.14 to -0.02, P = 0.007). The significant between-group differences were maintained at 12-month follow-up. No significant differences were noted between the groups in a CGM-measured oral glucose tolerance test. CONCLUSIONS: In this clinical trial in prediabetes, a PPT diet improved glycemic control significantly more than a MED diet as measured by daily time of glucose levels >140 mg/dL (7.8 mmol/L) and HbA1c. These findings may have implications for dietary advice in clinical practice.

Anosmia, ageusia, and other COVID-19-like symptoms in association with a positive SARS-CoV-2 test, across six national digital surveillance platforms: an observational study.

BACKGROUND: Multiple voluntary surveillance platforms were developed across the world in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, providing a real-time understanding of population-based COVID-19 epidemiology. During this time, testing criteria broadened and health-care policies matured. We aimed to test whether there were consistent associations of symptoms with SARS-CoV-2 test status across three surveillance platforms in three countries (two platforms per country), during periods of testing and policy changes. METHODS: For this observational study, we used data of observations from three volunteer COVID-19 digital surveillance platforms (Carnegie Mellon University and University of Maryland Facebook COVID-19 Symptom Survey, ZOE COVID Symptom Study app, and the Corona Israel study) targeting communities in three countries (Israel, the UK, and the USA; two platforms per country). The study population included adult respondents (age 18-100 years at baseline) who were not health-care workers. We did logistic regression of self-reported symptoms on self-reported SARS-CoV-2 test status (positive or negative), adjusted for age and sex, in each of the study cohorts. We compared odds ratios (ORs) across platforms and countries, and we did meta-analyses assuming a random effects model. We also evaluated testing policy changes, COVID-19 incidence, and time scales of duration of symptoms and symptom-to-test time. FINDINGS: Between April 1 and July 31, 2020, 514 459 tests from over 10 million respondents were recorded in the six surveillance platform datasets. Anosmia-ageusia was the strongest, most consistent symptom associated with a positive COVID-19 test (robust aggregated rank one, meta-analysed random effects OR 16·96, 95% CI 13·13-21·92). Fever (rank two, 6·45, 4·25-9·81), shortness of breath (rank three, 4·69, 3·14-7·01), and cough (rank four, 4·29, 3·13-5·88) were also highly associated with test positivity. The association of symptoms with test status varied by duration of illness, timing of the test, and broader test criteria, as well as over time, by country, and by platform. INTERPRETATION: The strong association of anosmia-ageusia with self-reported positive SARS-CoV-2 test was consistently observed, supporting its validity as a reliable COVID-19 signal, regardless of the participatory surveillance platform, country, phase of illness, or testing policy. These findings show that associations between COVID-19 symptoms and test positivity ranked similarly in a wide range of scenarios. Anosmia, fever, and respiratory symptoms consistently had the strongest effect estimates and were the most appropriate empirical signals for symptom-based public health surveillance in areas with insufficient testing or benchmarking capacity. Collaborative syndromic surveillance could enhance real-time epidemiological investigations and public health utility globally. FUNDING: National Institutes of Health, National Institute for Health Research, Alzheimer's Society, Wellcome Trust, and Massachusetts Consortium on Pathogen Readiness.

Endothelin-1 levels are decreased in pediatric Type 1 diabetes and negatively correlate with the carotid intima media thickness.

AIMS: Better understanding of the timeline and risk factors for the appearance of complications in pediatric Type-1-diabetes is key for developing prevention strategies. We studied endothelial markers and their determinants in adolescents with Type-1-diabetes at different time points from diagnosis. METHODS: A cross-sectional study of 58 adolescents, mean age 15.0 ± 2.4 years; 20 with recent-onset Type-1-diabetes, 20 with over 7 years of Type-1-diabetes and 18 controls. Clinical and biochemical data were collected. Fingertip arterial reactive hyperemia (EndoPAT) and carotid intima-media-thickness (cIMT) were measured to assess endothelial function and structure. RESULTS: Compared to controls, individuals with prolonged Type-1-diabetes had higher mean cIMT (0.49 ± 0.07 mm vs. 0.43 ± 0.05 mm p = 0.021) and maximal cIMT (0.61 ± 0.08 mm 0.52 ± 0.08 mm, p = 0.025). Endothelin-1 levels were significantly lower in subjects with prolonged Type-1-diabetes (1.2 ± 1.0 pg/ml) compared to controls (3.0 ± 1.7, p = 0.008 pg/ml); they negatively correlated with the mean cIMT (c = - 0.291, p = 0.031) and mean 6 months hemoglobin A1c (c = - 0.301, p = 0.022) and positively correlated with mean c-peptide levels (c = 0.356, p = 0.006) and the weekly exercise time (c = 0.485, p < 0.001). Endothelin-1 levels did not correlate with EndoPAT results. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that the early years after the diagnosis of Type-1-diabetes are an important window for prevention of arterial damage in the pediatric population. The trajectories of relationships of Endothelin-1 with metabolic and vascular measures were opposite from the anticipated, yet consistent. Endothelin-1 related indirectly to adverse measures and directly to favorable measures. Decreased Endothelin-1 levels might reflect early stages in endothelial impairment in Type-1-diabetes, yet its' exact role in the development of complications is yet to be unraveled.

10 K: a large-scale prospective longitudinal study in Israel.

The 10 K is a large-scale prospective longitudinal cohort and biobank that was established in Israel. The primary aims of the study include development of prediction models for disease onset and progression and identification of novel molecular markers with a diagnostic, prognostic and therapeutic value. The recruitment was initiated in 2018 and is expected to complete in 2021. Between 28/01/2019 and 13/12/2020, 4,629 from the expected 10,000 participants were recruited (46 %). Follow-up visits are scheduled every year for a total of 25 years. The cohort includes individuals between the ages of 40 and 70 years. Predefined medical conditions were determined as exclusions. Information collected at baseline includes medical history, lifestyle and nutritional habits, vital signs, anthropometrics, blood tests results, Electrocardiography, Ankle-brachial pressure index (ABI), liver US and Dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) tests. Molecular profiling includes transcriptome, proteome, gut and oral microbiome, metabolome and immune system profiling. Continuous measurements include glucose levels using a continuous glucose monitoring device for 2 weeks and sleep monitoring by a home sleep apnea test device for 3 nights. Blood and stool samples are collected and stored at - 80 °C in a storage facility for future research. Linkage is being established with national disease registries.

COVID-19 dynamics after a national immunization program in Israel.

Studies on the real-life effect of the BNT162b2 vaccine for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) prevention are urgently needed. In this study, we conducted a retrospective analysis of data from the Israeli Ministry of Health collected between 28 August 2020 and 24 February 2021. We studied the temporal dynamics of the number of new COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations after the vaccination campaign, which was initiated on 20 December 2020. To distinguish the possible effects of the vaccination on cases and hospitalizations from other factors, including a third lockdown implemented on 8 January 2021, we performed several comparisons: (1) individuals aged 60 years and older prioritized to receive the vaccine first versus younger age groups; (2) the January lockdown versus the September lockdown; and (3) early-vaccinated versus late-vaccinated cities. A larger and earlier decrease in COVID-19 cases and hospitalization was observed in individuals older than 60 years, followed by younger age groups, by the order of vaccination prioritization. This pattern was not observed in the previous lockdown and was more pronounced in early-vaccinated cities. Our analysis demonstrates the real-life effect of a national vaccination campaign on the pandemic dynamics.

Hospital load and increased COVID-19 related mortality in Israel.

The spread of Coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19) has led to many healthcare systems being overwhelmed by the rapid emergence of new cases. Here, we study the ramifications of hospital load due to COVID-19 morbidity on in-hospital mortality of patients with COVID-19 by analyzing records of all 22,636 COVID-19 patients hospitalized in Israel from mid-July 2020 to mid-January 2021. We show that even under moderately heavy patient load (>500 countrywide hospitalized severely-ill patients; the Israeli Ministry of Health defined 800 severely-ill patients as the maximum capacity allowing adequate treatment), in-hospital mortality rate of patients with COVID-19 significantly increased compared to periods of lower patient load (250-500 severely-ill patients): 14-day mortality rates were 22.1% (Standard Error 3.1%) higher (mid-September to mid-October) and 27.2% (Standard Error 3.3%) higher (mid-December to mid-January). We further show this higher mortality rate cannot be attributed to changes in the patient population during periods of heavier load.