RESUMO
Background: Pertussis is a respiratory tract infection caused by Bordetella pertussis, which causes inflammation of the lungs and respiratory tract. The purpose of this study was to investigate the incidence and geographical distribution of pertussis using the geographic information system (GIS) and to predict its incidence in Iran in 2021. Methods: This was a descriptive analytical study. Information on pertussis was obtained from the Center for Communicable Diseases Control during 2009-2015. In the next step, the ArcGIS 9.3 was used to prepare geographic maps of the disease incidence and frequency. Therefore, the disease prediction map was drawn. using the Raster Calculator tool. Results: The results showed that the highest incidence of pertussis during 2009-2015 was in Zanjan, Qom, Mazandaran, and Qazvin provinces. The incidence of pertussis in Iran increased from 0.74 in 2009 to 1.53 in 2015. Based on the modeling results for Iran, Qom, Mazandaran, Tehran, Qazvin, and Zanjan provinces, with 76.76%, 73.69%, 66.32%, 30.94% and 24.18% of their areas (Km2), are at high risk for pertussis in the coming years, respectively. Conclusion: The incidence of the disease has been increasing in recent years, indicating the emergence of the disease in Iran. The modeling maps show that the Iranian provinces of Qom, Tehran, Zanjan, and Qazvin are at risk of the disease incidence in the coming years, indicating the need for planning, appropriate interventions and more precise implementation of the vaccination program against the disease.
RESUMO
Background: Leptospirosis is known as a public health problem in developing and developed countries. The aim of this study was to investigate the incidence and geographical distribution of leptospirosis using the Geographic Information System (GIS) and to predict its incidence in Iran in 2021. Methods: This was a descriptive analytical study. Information on leptospirosis was obtained from the Center for Communicable Diseases Control during 2009-2015. In the next step, The ArcGIS 9.3 was used to prepare geographic maps of the disease incidence and frequency. Therefore, using the Raster Calculator tool, the disease prediction map was drawn. Results: The results showed that the highest incidence of leptospirosis during 2009-2015 was observed in Gilan, Mazandaran, and Golestan provinces, respectively. The incidence of the disease had an increasing trend from 2013 to 2015. Based on the results of the modeling in Iran, the provinces of Gilan, Mazandaran, and Golestan, with 72.18%, 8.54%, and 4.95% of their area, respectively, have the largest areas at a high-risk for leptospirosis in the coming years. Conclusion: The prevalence of leptospirosis is affected by geographical and climatic conditions of every region; thus, the incidence of the disease is higher in the provinces located at the Caspian coastal side and in some regions in Semnan province. Hence, if health authorities pay more attention to developing health plans to prevent the disease, the risk of disease in these areas will be reduced in the future.
RESUMO
Background: Anthrax is a zoonotic infectious disease that is still considered as a health problem in developing countries. Therefore, the aim of this study was to investigate the incidence and geographical distribution of anthrax using the Geographic Information System (GIS) and predict its incidence in Iran in 2021. Methods: This study is descriptive analytical study. Information on anthrax was obtained from the Center for Communicable Diseases Control during 2010-2015. In the next step, ArcGIS 9.3 was used to prepare geographic maps of the disease incidence and frequency. Therefore, using the Raster Calculator tool, the disease prediction map was drawn. Results: The highest incidence of anthrax during 2010-2015 was observed in the provinces of Kurdistan, North Khorasan, and Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari, respectively. The trend of the incidence of anthrax in Iran had increased from 2010 to 2013, while its incidence decreased in 2014. Based on the results of modeling in Iran, the provinces of Kurdistan, West Azarbaijan, Tehran, and Zanjan, respectively, with 37.16%, 33.83%, 16.78%, and 10.49% of their area (km2) had the highest risk of anthrax disease in the country in the year 2021. Conclusion: Since the provinces of Kurdistan, West Azerbaijan, Tehran, and Zanjan are among the high-risk areas in the country in the coming years, the cooperation between the veterinary organization and the health care system and the vaccination of livestock in these areas can significantly help to control and prevent the disease.
