Environmental surveillance of a circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2 outbreak in Israel between 2022 and 2023: a genomic epidemiology study.

BACKGROUND: Similarly to wild poliovirus, vaccine-derived poliovirus (VDPV) strains can cause acute flaccid paralysis, posing a considerable challenge to public health and the eradication of poliovirus. VDPV outbreaks, particularly VDPV type 2 (VDPV2), are increasing worldwide, including in high-income countries with high vaccine coverage. We aimed to conduct a comprehensive analysis of the molecular epidemiology of a widespread VDPV2 outbreak in Israel in 2022-23 using conventional polio identification techniques and whole-genome sequencing. METHODS: In this genomic epidemiology study, we monitored and identified poliovirus type 2 (PV2) through the surveillance of stool samples from individuals with acute flaccid paralysis and related contacts, as well as environmental surveillance of sewage samples. Environmental surveillance involved 15 routine surveillance sites and an additional 30 sites dedicated to monitoring this outbreak, covering approximately 70% of Israel's population between April 1, 2022, and June 30, 2023. Additionally, we performed phylogenetic and mutation analyses using whole-genome, next-generation sequencing of PV2 isolates to identify recombination events, characterise VDPV2 lineages according to the capsid region, and establish the geographical distribution and linkage of PV2 isolates. FINDINGS: We detected 256 genetically linked samples from environmental surveillance, as well as one case of acute flaccid paralysis and four positive contacts associated with the Sabin type 2 oral vaccine strain. Most affected locations showed a high-density population of Jewish Ultra-Orthodox communities. Through high-resolution genomic characterisation and phylogenetic analysis of 202 representative sequences with complete capsid coverage, including isolates from both environmental surveillance and the case of acute flaccid paralysis, a conclusive linkage was established among all detections, confirming them to be part of a single VDPV2 outbreak. This strategy enabled the characterisation of three distinct lineages and established connections between different locations in Israel, including linking the case of acute flaccid paralysis and nearby environmental surveillance detections from the northern region with detections in the geographically distant central region. INTERPRETATION: This study highlights the role of environmental surveillance in the early detection and monitoring of poliovirus circulation, enabling a prompt public health response involving enhanced surveillance and a catch-up campaign with inactivated polio vaccine. Whole-genome sequencing offered valuable insights into the origins of the outbreak, linkage across detections, and the geographical distribution of the virus, with higher resolution than would have been possible with the standard analysis of the VP1 gene alone. FUNDING: None.

Factors associated with antibiotic use in children hospitalized for acute viral gastroenteritis and the relation to rotavirus vaccination.

Evidence on unnecessary antibiotic use in children with acute viral gastroenteritis (AGE) is scarce. We characterized the extent and correlates of antibiotic use among children hospitalized with viral AGE. A single-center study enrolled children aged 0-59 months hospitalized for AGE between 2008 and 2015 in Israel. Information was collected on laboratory tests, diagnoses, antibiotic treatment, and rotavirus vaccination. Stool samples were tested for rotavirus antigen, GII-norovirus, and stool cultures were performed for bacterial enteropathogens. Data from 2240 children were analyzed. Rotavirus vaccine was given to 79% of eligible children. Rotavirus test was performed on 1419 (63.3%) children. Before the introduction of universal rotavirus vaccination (2008-2010), rotavirus positivity in stool samples was 37.0%, which declined to 17.3% during the universal vaccination years (2011-2015). Overall, 1395 participants had viral AGE. Of those, 253 (18.1% [95% CI 16.1-20.2]) had unnecessary antibiotic treatment, mostly penicillin 46.6%, ceftriaxone 34.0% and azithromycin 21.7%. A multivariable analysis showed an inverse association between rotavirus vaccination and unnecessary antibiotic treatment (odds ratio = 0.53 [95% CI 0.31-0.91]), while positive associations were found with performing chest-X-ray test (3.00 [1.73-5.23]), blood (3.29 [95% CI 1.85-5.86]) and urine cultures (7.12 [3.77-13.43]), levels of C-reactive protein (1.02 [1.01-1.02]) and leukocytes (1.05 [1.01-1.09]). The results were consistent in an analysis of children with laboratory-confirmed rotavirus or norovirus AGE, or after excluding children with CRP > 50 mg/L. In conclusion, antibiotic prescription was common among hospitalized children with viral AGE, which was inversely related to rotavirus vaccination, possibly due to less severe illness in the vaccinated children.

Quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) tool for modelling pathogen infection risk to wastewater treatment plant workers.

Wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) provide vital services to the public by removing contaminants from wastewater prior to environmental discharge or reuse for beneficial purposes. WWTP workers occupationally exposed to wastewater can be at risk of respiratory or gastrointestinal diseases. The study objectives were to: (1) quantify pathogens and pathogen indicators in wastewater aerosols near different WWTP processes/unit operations, (2) develop a QMRA model for multi-pathogen and multi-exposure pathway risks, and (3) create a web-based application to perform and communicate risk calculations for wastewater workers. Case studies for seven different WWTP job tasks were performed investigating infection risk across nine different enteric and respiratory pathogens. It was observed that the ingestion risk among job tasks was highest for "walking the WWTP," which involved exposure from splashing, bioaerosols, and hand-to-mouth contact from touching contaminated surfaces. There was also a notable difference in exposure risk during peak (5:00am-9:00am) and non-peak hours (9:00am- 5:00am), with risks during the peak flow hours of the early morning assumed to be 5 times greater than non-peak hours. N95 respirator usage reduced median respiratory risks by 77 %. The developed tool performs multiple QMRA calculations to estimate WWTP workers' infection risks from accidental ingestion or inhalation of wastewater from multiple pathogens and exposure scenarios, which can inform risk management strategies to protect occupational health. However, more data are needed to reduce uncertainty in model estimates, including comparative data for pathogen concentrations in wastewater during peak and non-peak hours. QMRA tools will increase accessibility of risk models for utilization in decision-making.

Obesity Is Associated with an Impaired Baseline Repertoire of Anti-Influenza Virus Antibodies.

Obesity is a risk factor for severe disease and mortality for both influenza and severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection. While previous studies show that individuals with obesity generate antibody responses following influenza vaccination, infection rates within the obese group were twice as high as those in the healthy-weight group. The repertoire of antibodies raised against influenza viruses following previous vaccinations and/or natural exposures is referred to here as baseline immune history (BIH). To investigate the hypothesis that obesity impacts immune memory to infections and vaccines, we profiled the BIH of obese and healthy-weight adults vaccinated with the 2010-2011 seasonal influenza vaccine in response to conformational and linear antigens. Despite the extensive heterogeneity of the BIH profiles in both groups, there were striking differences between obese and healthy subjects, especially with regard to A/H1N1 strains and the 2009 pandemic virus (Cal09). Individuals with obesity had lower IgG and IgA magnitude and breadth for a panel of A/H1N1 whole viruses and hemagglutinin proteins from 1933 to 2009 but increased IgG magnitude and breadth for linear peptides from the Cal09 H1 and N1 proteins. Age was also associated with A/H1N1 BIH, with young individuals with obesity being more likely to have reduced A/H1N1 BIH. We found that individuals with low IgG BIH had significantly lower neutralizing antibody titers than individuals with high IgG BIH. Taken together, our findings suggest that increased susceptibility of obese participants to influenza infection may be mediated in part by obesity-associated differences in the memory B-cell repertoire, which cannot be ameliorated by current seasonal vaccination regimens. Overall, these data have vital implications for the next generation of influenza virus and SARS-CoV-2 vaccines. IMPORTANCE Obesity is associated with increased morbidity and mortality from influenza and SARS-CoV-2 infection. While vaccination is the most effective strategy for preventing influenza virus infection, our previous studies showed that influenza vaccines fail to provide optimal protection in obese individuals despite reaching canonical correlates of protection. Here, we show that obesity may impair immune history in humans and cannot be overcome by seasonal vaccination, especially in younger individuals with decreased lifetime exposure to infections and seasonal vaccines. Low baseline immune history is associated with decreased protective antibody responses. Obesity potentially handicaps overall responses to vaccination, biasing it toward responses to linear epitopes, which may reduce protective capacity. Taken together, our data suggest that young obese individuals are at an increased risk of reduced protection by vaccination, likely due to altered immune history biased toward nonprotective antibody responses. Given the worldwide obesity epidemic coupled with seasonal respiratory virus infections and the inevitable next pandemic, it is imperative that we understand and improve vaccine efficacy in this high-risk population. The design, development, and usage of vaccines for and in obese individuals may need critical evaluation, and immune history should be considered an alternate correlate of protection in future vaccine clinical trials.

Environmental surveillance detected type 3 vaccine-derived polioviruses in increasing frequency at multiple sites prior to detection of a poliomyelitis case.

Israel conducts routine environmental (15 sites) and acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) surveillance for poliovirus. During September 2021, increasing numbers of wastewater samples collected from more than one site in the Jerusalem region proved positive for ambiguous type 3 vaccine-derived poliovirus (aVDPV3), while environmental samples from remaining sampling sites were negative. In late February 2022, a VDPV3, genetically related to the Jerusalem environmental surveillance samples, was isolated from a stool sample collected from a non-immunodeficient, non-immunized child from Jerusalem who developed AFP, indicating that the aVDPV3s were circulating (cVDPV3s) rather than immunodeficiency-related VDPV3s (iVDPVs). In response to these isolations, the Israel Ministry of Health launched a catch-up immunization program.

Hypothesis: Viral infections of pregnant women may be early triggers of childhood type 1 diabetes and other autoimmune disease.

Children and adolescents with early onset autoimmune diseases have a different seasonality of month of birth than the general population. This pattern is consistent with an infection during pregnancy affecting the fetus or an infection immediately after birth that act as early triggers of the autoimmune diseases. We present data supporting the use of Rotavirus vaccinations in the reduction of incidence of childhood T1D and propose further investigations into whether other anti-virus vaccinations may reduce the burden of other autoimmune diseases such as multiple sclerosis, atopic dermatitis, psoriasis and subtypes of rheumatoid arthritis, Hashimoto thyroiditis.

Epidemiology of Type 3 Poliovirus AFP Cases in Israel between 1973 and 1988: Whole Genome Sequencing of RNA Extracted Directly from Archived Stocks to Avoid Re-Culturing Neurovirulent Wild Poliovirus.

BACKGROUND: Poliovirus post-eradication containment of wild-type 2 poliovirus (PV2) requires the destruction of all materials containing, or potentially containing, PV2. Acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) cases in Israel between 1973 and 1988 were caused by all three serotypes; thus, isolates from cases and case-contacts were either PV2 or potentially contaminated with PV2. AIMS: To provide a proof-of-concept that whole genome sequences (WGS) of wild-type 3 poliovirus (PV3s) could be salvaged from the RNA extracted directly from archived poliovirus stocks avoiding re-amplification of neurovirulent viruses, we link WGSs to case histories and determine the phylogenetic relationships among the PV3s. METHODS: Data retrieved from 427 poliovirus-positive cases reported between 1973 and 1988 identified 85 PV3-associated cases. A total of 71 archived PV3 isolates were available from PV3-positive cases and contacts. WGSs were obtained by NGS from cDNA libraries constructed from RNA extracted directly from archived viral stocks. Sequences were subjected to phylogenetic analysis and linked to case data. RESULTS: WGSs were successfully constructed for 55 isolates. Phylogenetic analysis revealed the circulation of seven lineages of PV3. One lineage, with 23 isolates, presented as an outbreak of six-year duration. Isolates from six other lineages were consistent with subsequent separate introductions, sporadic cases, and limited transmission. Recombinant vaccine-like PV3 recombinants were isolated from some cases. CONCLUSIONS: Whole or near-whole genome sequence information, obtained from RNA extracted directly from the archived material, safely provided detailed genetic information linked to patient data from a time when limited sequence information was previously available and revealed the pattern of transmission of wild PV3 in Israel.

Emergence of genetically linked vaccine-originated poliovirus type 2 in the absence of oral polio vaccine, Jerusalem, April to July 2022.

We report an emergence and increase in poliovirus type 2 detection via routine wastewater surveillance in three non-overlapping regions in the Jerusalem region, Israel, between April and July 2022. Sequencing showed genetic linkage among isolates and accumulation of mutations over time, with two isolates defined as vaccine-derived polioviruses (VDPV). This demonstrates the emergence and potential circulation of type 2 VDPV in a high-income country with high vaccine coverage and underscores the importance of routine wastewater surveillance during the polio eradication.

Genetic Characterization of Novel Oral Polio Vaccine Type 2 Viruses During Initial Use Phase Under Emergency Use Listing - Worldwide, March-October 2021.

The emergence and international spread of neurovirulent circulating vaccine-derived polioviruses (cVDPVs) across multiple countries in Africa and Asia in recent years pose a major challenge to the goal of eradicating all forms of polioviruses. Approximately 90% of all cVDPV outbreaks are caused by the type 2 strain of the Sabin vaccine, an oral live, attenuated vaccine; cVDPV outbreaks typically occur in areas of persistently low immunization coverage (1). A novel type 2 oral poliovirus vaccine (nOPV2), produced by genetic modification of the type 2 Sabin vaccine virus genome (2), was developed and evaluated through phase I and phase II clinical trials during 2017-2019. nOPV2 was demonstrated to be safe and well-tolerated, have noninferior immunogenicity, and have superior genetic stability compared with Sabin monovalent type 2 (as measured by preservation of the primary attenuation site [domain V in the 5' noncoding region] and significantly lower neurovirulence of fecally shed vaccine virus in transgenic mice) (3-5). These findings indicate that nOPV2 could be an important tool in reducing the risk for generating vaccine-derived polioviruses (VDPVs) and the risk for vaccine-associated paralytic poliomyelitis cases. Based on the favorable preclinical and clinical data, and the public health emergency of international concern generated by ongoing endemic wild poliovirus transmission and cVDPV type 2 outbreaks, the World Health Organization authorized nOPV2 for use under the Emergency Use Listing (EUL) pathway in November 2020, allowing for its first use for outbreak response in March 2021 (6). As required by the EUL process, among other EUL obligations, an extensive plan was developed and deployed for obtaining and monitoring nOPV2 isolates detected during acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) surveillance, environmental surveillance, adverse events after immunization surveillance, and targeted surveillance for adverse events of special interest (i.e., prespecified events that have the potential to be causally associated with the vaccine product), during outbreak response, as well as through planned field studies. Under this monitoring framework, data generated from whole-genome sequencing of nOPV2 isolates, alongside other virologic data for isolates from AFP and environmental surveillance systems, are reviewed by the genetic characterization subgroup of an nOPV working group of the Global Polio Eradication Initiative. Global nOPV2 genomic surveillance during March-October 2021 confirmed genetic stability of the primary attenuating site. Sequence data generated through this unprecedented global effort confirm the genetic stability of nOPV2 relative to Sabin 2 and suggest that nOPV2 will be an important tool in the eradication of poliomyelitis. nOPV2 surveillance should continue for the duration of the EUL.

The role of time-varying viral shedding in modelling environmental surveillance for public health: revisiting the 2013 poliovirus outbreak in Israel.

Environmental pathogen surveillance is a sensitive tool that can detect early-stage outbreaks, and it is being used to track poliovirus and other pathogens. However, interpretation of longitudinal environmental surveillance signals is difficult because the relationship between infection incidence and viral load in wastewater depends on time-varying shedding intensity. We developed a mathematical model of time-varying poliovirus shedding intensity consistent with expert opinion across a range of immunization states. Incorporating this shedding model into an infectious disease transmission model, we analysed quantitative, polymerase chain reaction data from seven sites during the 2013 Israeli poliovirus outbreak. Compared to a constant shedding model, our time-varying shedding model estimated a slower peak (four weeks later), with more of the population reached by a vaccination campaign before infection and a lower cumulative incidence. We also estimated the population shed virus for an average of 29 days (95% CI 28-31), longer than expert opinion had suggested for a population that was purported to have received three or more inactivated polio vaccine (IPV) doses. One explanation is that IPV may not substantially affect shedding duration. Using realistic models of time-varying shedding coupled with longitudinal environmental surveillance may improve our understanding of outbreak dynamics of poliovirus, SARS-CoV-2, or other pathogens.

Inferring Numbers of Wild Poliovirus Excretors Using Quantitative Environmental Surveillance.

Response to and monitoring of viral outbreaks can be efficiently focused when rapid, quantitative, kinetic information provides the location and the number of infected individuals. Environmental surveillance traditionally provides information on location of populations with contagious, infected individuals since infectious poliovirus is excreted whether infections are asymptomatic or symptomatic. Here, we describe development of rapid (1 week turnaround time, TAT), quantitative RT-PCR of poliovirus RNA extracted directly from concentrated environmental surveillance samples to infer the number of infected individuals excreting poliovirus. The quantitation method was validated using data from vaccination with bivalent oral polio vaccine (bOPV). The method was then applied to infer the weekly number of excreters in a large, sustained, asymptomatic outbreak of wild type 1 poliovirus in Israel (2013) in a population where >90% of the individuals received three doses of inactivated polio vaccine (IPV). Evidence-based intervention strategies were based on the short TAT for direct quantitative detection. Furthermore, a TAT shorter than the duration of poliovirus excretion allowed resampling of infected individuals. Finally, the method documented absence of infections after successful intervention of the asymptomatic outbreak. The methodologies described here can be applied to outbreaks of other excreted viruses such as severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), where there are (1) significant numbers of asymptomatic infections; (2) long incubation times during which infectious virus is excreted; and (3) limited resources, facilities, and manpower that restrict the number of individuals who can be tested and re-tested.

Use of the Whole Country Insulin Consumption Data in Israel to Determine the Prevalence of Type 1 Diabetes in Children <5 Years of Age Before and During Rotavirus Vaccination.

BACKGROUND: Recent studies showed that rotavirus vaccination may affect the prevalence of type 1 diabetes (T1D). The aim of the study was to determine the prevalence of early childhood (<5 years) T1D before and during the introduction of rotavirus vaccination in Israel by syndromic surveillance. METHODS: Data on insulin purchases reported by Israel's four Health Maintenance Organizations (HMOs) were retrieved from the National Program for Quality Indicators in Community Healthcare. RESULTS: During the prevaccination years (2002-2007), a steady increase in insulin purchases was reported in the young (<5 years). The period percent change (PC) of children <5 years old diagnosed with T1D inferred from purchased insulin prescriptions increased by 50.0%, and the annual percent change (APC) increased by 10.0% (p = 0.01). During the period of free, universal Rotavirus vaccination (2011-2018), the PC for T1D diagnoses among children <5 years of age decreased by 3.8% with an APC of -2.5% (p = 0.14). There was a significant difference (p = 0.002) between the increasing trend in insulin use before vaccination versus the decreasing trend after vaccination. CONCLUSION: Rotavirus vaccination correlated with attenuation of the increasing rate in the prevalence of T1D in <5-year-old children in Israel.

Obesity is associated with an altered baseline and post-vaccination influenza antibody repertoire.

As highlighted by the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, vaccination is critical for infectious disease prevention and control. Obesity is associated with increased morbidity and mortality from respiratory virus infections. While obese individuals respond to influenza vaccination, what is considered a seroprotective response may not fully protect the global obese population. In a cohort vaccinated with the 2010-2011 trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine, baseline immune history and vaccination responses were found to significantly differ in obese individuals compared to healthy controls, especially towards the 2009 pandemic strain of A/H1N1 influenza virus. Young, obese individuals displayed responses skewed towards linear peptides versus conformational antigens, suggesting aberrant obese immune response. Overall, these data have vital implications for the next generation of influenza vaccines, and towards the current SARS-CoV-2 vaccination campaign.

Underperformed and Underreported Testing for Persistent Oropharyngeal Poliovirus Infections in Primary Immune Deficient Patients-Risk for Reemergence of Polioviruses.

BACKGROUND: Individuals with primary immune deficiencies (PIDs) may excrete poliovirus for extended periods and remain a major reservoir for polio after eradication. Poliovirus can spread by fecal-oral or oral-oral transmission. In middle- and high-income countries, oral-oral transmission may be more prevalent than fecal-oral transmission of polioviruses where PIDs patients survive longer. Our aim was to determine the prevalence of prolonged or persistent oropharyngeal poliovirus infections in PIDs. METHODS: We performed a literature search for reports of prolonged (excreting poliovirus for ≥6 months and ≤5 years) or persistent (excreting poliovirus for >5 years) poliovirus infections in PIDs. RESULTS: There were 140 PID cases with prolonged or persistent poliovirus infections. All had poliovirus-positive stools. Testing of oropharyngeal mucosa was only reported for 6 cases, 4 of which were positive. Molecular analyses demonstrated independent evolution of poliovirus in the gut and oropharyngeal mucosa in 2 cases. Seven PIDs had multiple lineages of the same poliovirus serotype in stools without information about polioviruses in oropharyngeal mucosa. CONCLUSIONS: Testing for persistence of poliovirus in oropharyngeal mucosa of PID patients is rare, with virus recovered in 4 of 5 cases in whom stools were positive. Multiple lineages or serotypes in 7 additional PID cases may indicate separate foci of infection, some of which might be in oropharyngeal mucosa. We recommend screening throat swabs in addition to stools for poliovirus in PID patients. Containment protocols for reducing both oral-oral and fecal-oral transmission from PID patients must be formulated for hospitals and community settings.

For Debate: The Controversy whether Rotavirus Vaccination Attenuates the Incidence of Childhood Type 1 Diabetes.

Recent epidemiological surveys performed in Australia, USA and Israel demonstrate that Rotavirus vaccination correlates with an attenuated prevalence and/or incidence of early childhood diabetes (T1D). Other studies failed to confirm the above.

First report of a persistent oropharyngeal infection of type 2 vaccine-derived poliovirus (iVDPV2) in a primary immune deficient (PID) patient after eradication of wild type 2 poliovirus.

This is the first report of persistent oropharyngeal mucosal infection with type 2 poliovirus (iVDPV2) in a primary immune deficient patient (PID) after wild type 2 poliovirus eradication. The iVDPV2 also established persistence in the gut. iVDPV2 at both loci evolved independently. Persistent oral infections present a potential risk for oral-oral as well as fecal-oral poliovirus transmission during transition to a poliovirus 2-free world.

No evidence of an increase in the incidence of norovirus gastroenteritis hospitalizations in young children after the introduction of universal rotavirus immunization in Israel.

Following the introduction of universal immunization against rotavirus, concerns were raised regarding pathogen-replacement of rotavirus by norovirus. The study aim was to examine the incidence and characteristics and norovirus gastroenteritis before and after the introduction of universal rotavirus immunization in Israel. We studied 1179 stool samples collected between November 2007 and December 2014 for a prospective hospital-based surveillance study of children aged 0-59 months hospitalized for gastroenteritis. A real-time RT-PCR assay was used to identify genogroup II (GII) norovirus in extracted fecal RNA samples. Overall, the weighted percentage of norovirus positive patients was 10.9%. Norovirus positivity was similar in the pre-universal rotavirus immunisation years (2008-2010) and the universal years (2011-2014), the respective average annual incidence of norovirus gastroenteritis was 1.6 (95% CI 0.6-2.3) per 1000 and 1.1 (95% CI 0.8-1.4) per 1000 children. Rotavirus was detected in 36.8% and 19.6% of the patients in the pre-vaccine years and the universal vaccine years, with an estimated incidence of 5.5 (95% CI 3.4-7.6) per 1000 and 2.1 (95% CI 1.6-2.7) per 1000 children, respectively. Most patients (59.1%) with norovirus gastroenteritis were infants aged 0-11 months. Norovirus was detected all year round with a significant 3-month peak from September through November. In conclusion, norovirus continues to be a leading cause of acute gastroenteritis associated with hospitalizations in young children. Future norovirus vaccines should target young infants. There was no evidence of pathogen-replacement by norovirus following the introduction of universal rotavirus immunization in Israel.

Epidemiology of the silent polio outbreak in Rahat, Israel, based on modeling of environmental surveillance data.

Israel experienced an outbreak of wild poliovirus type 1 (WPV1) in 2013-2014, detected through environmental surveillance of the sewage system. No cases of acute flaccid paralysis were reported, and the epidemic subsided after a bivalent oral polio vaccination (bOPV) campaign. As we approach global eradication, polio will increasingly be detected only through environmental surveillance. We developed a framework to convert quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) cycle threshold data into scaled WPV1 and OPV1 concentrations for inference within a deterministic, compartmental infectious disease transmission model. We used this approach to estimate the epidemic curve and transmission dynamics, as well as assess alternate vaccination scenarios. Our analysis estimates the outbreak peaked in late June, much earlier than previous estimates derived from analysis of stool samples, although the exact epidemic trajectory remains uncertain. We estimate the basic reproduction number was 1.62 (95% CI 1.04-2.02). Model estimates indicate that 59% (95% CI 9-77%) of susceptible individuals (primarily children under 10 years old) were infected with WPV1 over a little more than six months, mostly before the vaccination campaign onset, and that the vaccination campaign averted 10% (95% CI 1-24%) of WPV1 infections. As we approach global polio eradication, environmental monitoring with qPCR can be used as a highly sensitive method to enhance disease surveillance. Our analytic approach brings public health relevance to environmental data that, if systematically collected, can guide eradication efforts.