Development and validation of multivariable machine learning algorithms to predict risk of cancer in symptomatic patients referred urgently from primary care: a diagnostic accuracy study.

OBJECTIVES: To develop and validate tests to assess the risk of any cancer for patients referred to the NHS Urgent Suspected Cancer (2-week wait, 2WW) clinical pathways. SETTING: Primary and secondary care, one participating regional centre. PARTICIPANTS: Retrospective analysis of data from 371 799 consecutive 2WW referrals in the Leeds region from 2011 to 2019. The development cohort was composed of 224 669 consecutive patients with an urgent suspected cancer referral in Leeds between January 2011 and December 2016. The diagnostic algorithms developed were then externally validated on a similar consecutive sample of 147 130 patients (between January 2017 and December 2019). All such patients over the age of 18 with a minimum set of blood counts and biochemistry measurements available were included in the cohort. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: sensitivity, specificity, negative predictive value, positive predictive value, Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve Area Under Curve (AUC), calibration curves RESULTS: We present results for two clinical use-cases. In use-case 1, the algorithms identify 20% of patients who do not have cancer and may not need an urgent 2WW referral. In use-case 2, they identify 90% of cancer cases with a high probability of cancer that could be prioritised for review. CONCLUSIONS: Combining a panel of widely available blood markers produces effective blood tests for cancer for NHS 2WW patients. The tests are affordable, and can be deployed rapidly to any NHS pathology laboratory with no additional hardware requirements.

A simple breath test for tuberculosis using ion mobility: A pilot study.

Tuberculosis (TB) remains one of the world's major health burdens with 9.6 million new infections globally. Though considerable progress has been made in reduction of TB incidence and mortality, there is a continuous need for lower cost, simpler and more robust means of diagnosis. One method that may fulfil these requirements is in the area of breath analysis. In this study we analysed the breath of 21 patients with pulmonary or extra-pulmonary TB, recruited from a UK teaching hospital (University Hospital Coventry and Warwickshire) before or within 1 week of commencing treatment for TB. TB diagnosis was confirmed by reference tests (mycobacterial culture), histology or radiology. 19 controls were recruited to calculate specificity; these patients were all interferon-gamma release assay negative (T.SPOT(®).TB, Oxford Immunotec Ltd.). Whole breath samples were collected with subsequent chemical analysis undertaken by Ion Mobility Spectrometry. Our results produced a sensitivity of 81% and a specificity of 79% for all cases of TB (pulmonary and extra-pulmonary). Though lower than other studies analysing pulmonary TB alone, we believe that this technique shows promise, and a higher sensitivity could be achieved by further improving our sample capture methodology.