Early detection of emerging viral variants through analysis of community structure of coordinated substitution networks.

The emergence of viral variants with altered phenotypes is a public health challenge underscoring the need for advanced evolutionary forecasting methods. Given extensive epistatic interactions within viral genomes and known viral evolutionary history, efficient genomic surveillance necessitates early detection of emerging viral haplotypes rather than commonly targeted single mutations. Haplotype inference, however, is a significantly more challenging problem precluding the use of traditional approaches. Here, using SARS-CoV-2 evolutionary dynamics as a case study, we show that emerging haplotypes with altered transmissibility can be linked to dense communities in coordinated substitution networks, which become discernible significantly earlier than the haplotypes become prevalent. From these insights, we develop a computational framework for inference of viral variants and validate it by successful early detection of known SARS-CoV-2 strains. Our methodology offers greater scalability than phylogenetic lineage tracing and can be applied to any rapidly evolving pathogen with adequate genomic surveillance data.

Antigenic cooperation in viral populations: Transformation of functions of intra-host viral variants.

In this paper, we study intra-host viral adaptation by antigenic cooperation - a mechanism of immune escape that serves as an alternative to the standard mechanism of escape by continuous genomic diversification and allows to explain a number of experimental observations associated with the establishment of chronic infections by highly mutable viruses. Within this mechanism, the topology of a cross-immunoreactivity network forces intra-host viral variants to specialize for complementary roles and adapt to the host's immune response as a quasi-social ecosystem. Here we study dynamical changes in immune adaptation caused by evolutionary and epidemiological events. First, we show that the emergence of a viral variant with altered antigenic features may result in a rapid re-arrangement of the viral ecosystem and a change in the roles played by existing viral variants. In particular, it may push the population under immune escape by genomic diversification towards the stable state of adaptation by antigenic cooperation. Next, we study the effect of a viral transmission between two chronically infected hosts, which results in the merging of two intra-host viral populations in the state of stable immune-adapted equilibrium. In this case, we also describe how the newly formed viral population adapts to the host's environment by changing the functions of its members. The results are obtained analytically for minimal cross-immunoreactivity networks and numerically for larger populations.

Excess mortality in Ukraine during the course of COVID-19 pandemic in 2020-2021.

In this work, the COVID-19 pandemic burden in Ukraine is investigated retrospectively using the excess mortality measures during 2020-2021. In particular, the epidemic impact on the Ukrainian population is studied via the standardized both all-cause and cause-specific mortality scores before and during the epidemic. The excess mortality counts during the pandemic were predicted based on historic data using parametric and nonparametric modeling and then compared with the actual reported counts to quantify the excess. The corresponding standardized mortality P-score metrics were also compared with the neighboring countries. In summary, there were three "waves" of excess all-cause mortality in Ukraine in December 2020, April 2021 and November 2021 with excess of 32%, 43% and 83% above the expected mortality. Each new "wave" of the all-cause mortality was higher than the previous one and the mortality "peaks" corresponded in time to three "waves" of lab-confirmed COVID-19 mortality. The lab-confirmed COVID-19 mortality constituted 9% to 24% of the all-cause mortality during those three peak months. Overall, the mortality trends in Ukraine over time were similar to neighboring countries where vaccination coverage was similar to that in Ukraine. For cause-specific mortality, the excess observed was due to pneumonia as well as circulatory system disease categories that peaked at the same times as the all-cause and lab-confirmed COVID-19 mortality, which was expected. The pneumonias as well as circulatory system disease categories constituted the majority of all cases during those peak times. The seasonality in mortality due to the infectious and parasitic disease category became less pronounced during the pandemic. While the reported numbers were always relatively low, alcohol-related mortality also declined during the pandemic.

SOPHIE: Viral outbreak investigation and transmission history reconstruction in a joint phylogenetic and network theory framework.

Genomic epidemiology is now widely used for viral outbreak investigations. Still, this methodology faces many challenges. First, few methods account for intra-host viral diversity. Second, maximum parsimony principle continues to be employed for phylogenetic inference of transmission histories, even though maximum likelihood or Bayesian models are usually more consistent. Third, many methods utilize case-specific data, such as sampling times or infection exposure intervals. This impedes study of persistent infections in vulnerable groups, where such information has a limited use. Finally, most methods implicitly assume that transmission events are independent, although common source outbreaks violate this assumption. We propose a maximum likelihood framework, SOPHIE, based on the integration of phylogenetic and random graph models. It infers transmission networks from viral phylogenies and expected properties of inter-host social networks modeled as random graphs with given expected degree distributions. SOPHIE is scalable, accounts for intra-host diversity, and accurately infers transmissions without case-specific epidemiological data.

Sensory Nerves Impede the Formation of Tertiary Lymphoid Structures and Development of Protective Antimelanoma Immune Responses.

Peripheral neurons comprise a critical component of the tumor microenvironment (TME). The role of the autonomic innervation in cancer has been firmly established. However, the effect of the afferent (sensory) neurons on tumor progression remains unclear. Utilizing surgical and chemical skin sensory denervation methods, we showed that afferent neurons supported the growth of melanoma tumors in vivo and demonstrated that sensory innervation limited the activation of effective antitumor immune responses. Specifically, sensory ablation led to improved leukocyte recruitment into tumors, with decreased presence of lymphoid and myeloid immunosuppressive cells and increased activation of T-effector cells within the TME. Cutaneous sensory nerves hindered the maturation of intratumoral high endothelial venules and limited the formation of mature tertiary lymphoid-like structures containing organized clusters of CD4+ T cells and B cells. Denervation further increased T-cell clonality and expanded the B-cell repertoire in the TME. Importantly, CD8a depletion prevented denervation-dependent antitumor effects. Finally, we observed that gene signatures of inflammation and the content of neuron-associated transcripts inversely correlated in human primary cutaneous melanomas, with the latter representing a negative prognostic marker of patient overall survival. Our results suggest that tumor-associated sensory neurons negatively regulate the development of protective antitumor immune responses within the TME, thereby defining a novel target for therapeutic intervention in the melanoma setting.

Excess mortality in Belarus during the COVID-19 pandemic as the case study of a country with limited non-pharmaceutical interventions and limited reporting.

Public health intervention to contain the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic significantly differed by country since the SARS-CoV-2 spread varied regionally in time and in scale. Since vaccinations were not available until the end of 2020 non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) remained the only strategies to mitigate the pandemic spread at that time. Belarus in Europe is one of a few countries with a high Human Development Index where no lockdowns have ever been implemented and only limited NPIs have taken place for a period of time. Therefore, the Belarusian case was evaluated and compared in terms of the mortality burden. Since the COVID-19 mortality was low, the excess overall mortality was studied for Belarus. Since no overall mortality data have been reported past June 2020 the analysis was complemented by the study of Google Trends funeral-related search queries up until August 2021. Depending on the model, the Belarusian mortality for June of 2020 was 29 to 39% higher than otherwise expected with the corresponding estimated excess death was from 2953 to 3690 while the reported COVID-19 mortality for June 2020 was only 157 cases. The Belarusian excess mortality for June 2020 was higher than for all neighboring countries with an excess of 5% for Poland, 5% for Ukraine, 8% for Russia, 11% for Lithuania and 11% for Latvia. The relationship between Google Trends and mortality time series was studied using Granger's test and the results were statistically significant. The results for Google Trends searches did vary by key phrase with the largest excess of 138% for April 2020 and 148% for September 2020 was observed for a key phrase "coffin", while the largest excess of 218% for January 2021 was observed for "funeral services". In summary, there are indications of the excess overall mortality in Belarus, which is larger than the reported COVID-19-related mortality.

An investigation of spatial-temporal patterns and predictions of the coronavirus 2019 pandemic in Colombia, 2020-2021.

Colombia announced the first case of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 on March 6, 2020. Since then, the country has reported a total of 5,002,387 cases and 127,258 deaths as of October 31, 2021. The aggressive transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 motivate an investigation of COVID-19 at the national and regional levels in Colombia. We utilize the case incidence and mortality data to estimate the transmission potential and generate short-term forecasts of the COVID-19 pandemic to inform the public health policies using previously validated mathematical models. The analysis is augmented by the examination of geographic heterogeneity of COVID-19 at the departmental level along with the investigation of mobility and social media trends. Overall, the national and regional reproduction numbers show sustained disease transmission during the early phase of the pandemic, exhibiting sub-exponential growth dynamics. Whereas the most recent estimates of reproduction number indicate disease containment, with Rt<1.0 as of October 31, 2021. On the forecasting front, the sub-epidemic model performs best at capturing the 30-day ahead COVID-19 trajectory compared to the Richards and generalized logistic growth model. Nevertheless, the spatial variability in the incidence rate patterns across different departments can be grouped into four distinct clusters. As the case incidence surged in July 2020, an increase in mobility patterns was also observed. On the contrary, a spike in the number of tweets indicating the stay-at-home orders was observed in November 2020 when the case incidence had already plateaued, indicating the pandemic fatigue in the country.

Primary case inference in viral outbreaks through analysis of intra-host variant population.

BACKGROUND: Investigation of outbreaks to identify the primary case is crucial for the interruption and prevention of transmission of infectious diseases. These individuals may have a higher risk of participating in near future transmission events when compared to the other patients in the outbreak, so directing more transmission prevention resources towards these individuals is a priority. Although the genetic characterization of intra-host viral populations can aid the identification of transmission clusters, it is not trivial to determine the directionality of transmissions during outbreaks, owing to complexity of viral evolution. Here, we present a new computational framework, PYCIVO: primary case inference in viral outbreaks. This framework expands upon our earlier work in development of QUENTIN, which builds a probabilistic disease transmission tree based on simulation of evolution of intra-host hepatitis C virus (HCV) variants between cases involved in direct transmission during an outbreak. PYCIVO improves upon QUENTIN by also adding a custom heterogeneity index and identifying the scenario when the primary case may have not been sampled. RESULTS: These approaches were validated using a set of 105 sequence samples from 11 distinct HCV transmission clusters identified during outbreak investigations, in which the primary case was epidemiologically verified. Both models can detect the correct primary case in 9 out of 11 transmission clusters (81.8%). However, while QUENTIN issues erroneous predictions on the remaining 2 transmission clusters, PYCIVO issues a null output for these clusters, giving it an effective prediction accuracy of 100%. To further evaluate accuracy of the inference, we created 10 modified transmission clusters in which the primary case had been removed. In this scenario, PYCIVO was able to correctly identify that there was no primary case in 8/10 (80%) of these modified clusters. This model was validated with HCV; however, this approach may be applicable to other microbial pathogens. CONCLUSIONS: PYCIVO improves upon QUENTIN by also implementing a custom heterogeneity index which empowers PYCIVO to make the important 'No primary case' prediction. One or more samples, possibly including the primary case, may have not been sampled, and this designation is meant to account for these scenarios.

Computational Approaches to Detect Illicit Drug Ads and Find Vendor Communities Within Social Media Platforms.

The opioid abuse epidemic represents a major public health threat to global populations. The role social media may play in facilitating illicit drug trade is largely unknown due to limited research. However, it is known that social media use among adults in the US is widespread, there is vast capability for online promotion of illegal drugs with delayed or limited deterrence of such messaging, and further, general commercial sale applications provide safeguards for transactions; however, they do not discriminate between legal and illegal sale transactions. These characteristics of the social media environment present challenges to surveillance which is needed for advancing knowledge of online drug markets and the role they play in the drug abuse and overdose deaths. In this paper, we present a computational framework developed to automatically detect illicit drug ads and communities of vendors. The SVM- and CNN- based methods for detecting illicit drug ads, and a matrix factorization based method for discovering overlapping communities have been extensively validated on the large dataset collected from Google+, Flickr and Tumblr. Pilot test results demonstrate that our computational methods can effectively identify illicit drug ads and detect vendor-community with accuracy. These methods hold promise to advance scientific knowledge surrounding the role social media may play in perpetuating the drug abuse epidemic.

From Alpha to Zeta: Identifying Variants and Subtypes of SARS-CoV-2 Via Clustering.

The availability of millions of SARS-CoV-2 (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome-Coronavirus-2) sequences in public databases such as GISAID (Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data) and EMBL-EBI (European Molecular Biology Laboratory-European Bioinformatics Institute) (the United Kingdom) allows a detailed study of the evolution, genomic diversity, and dynamics of a virus such as never before. Here, we identify novel variants and subtypes of SARS-CoV-2 by clustering sequences in adapting methods originally designed for haplotyping intrahost viral populations. We asses our results using clustering entropy-the first time it has been used in this context. Our clustering approach reaches lower entropies compared with other methods, and we are able to boost this even further through gap filling and Monte Carlo-based entropy minimization. Moreover, our method clearly identifies the well-known Alpha variant in the U.K. and GISAID data sets, and is also able to detect the much less represented (<1% of the sequences) Beta (South Africa), Epsilon (California), and Gamma and Zeta (Brazil) variants in the GISAID data set. Finally, we show that each variant identified has high selective fitness, based on the growth rate of its cluster over time. This demonstrates that our clustering approach is a viable alternative for detecting even rare subtypes in very large data sets.

Scalable Reconstruction of SARS-CoV-2 Phylogeny with Recurrent Mutations.

This article presents a novel scalable character-based phylogeny algorithm for dense viral sequencing data called SPHERE (Scalable PHylogEny with REcurrent mutations). The algorithm is based on an evolutionary model where recurrent mutations are allowed, but backward mutations are prohibited. The algorithm creates rooted character-based phylogeny trees, wherein all leaves and internal nodes are labeled by observed taxa. We show that SPHERE phylogeny is more stable than Nextstrain's, and that it accurately infers known transmission links from the early pandemic. SPHERE is a fast algorithm that can process >200,000 sequences in <2 hours, which offers a compact phylogenetic visualization of Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data (GISAID).

Scale-Free Spanning Trees and Their Application in Genomic Epidemiology.

We study the algorithmic problem of finding the most "scale-free-like" spanning tree of a connected graph. This problem is motivated by the fundamental problem of genomic epidemiology: given viral genomes sampled from infected individuals, reconstruct the transmission network ("who infected whom"). We use two possible objective functions for this problem and introduce the corresponding algorithmic problems termed m -SF (-scale free) and s -SF Spanning Tree problems. We prove that those problems are APX- and NP-hard, respectively, even in the classes of cubic and bipartite graphs. We propose two integer linear programming (ILP) formulations for the s -SF Spanning Tree problem, and experimentally assess its performance using simulated and experimental data. In particular, we demonstrate that the ILP-based approach allows for accurate reconstruction of transmission histories of several hepatitis C outbreaks.

Investigating the first stage of the COVID-19 pandemic in Ukraine using epidemiological and genomic data.

The novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 was first detected in China in December 2019 and has rapidly spread around the globe. The World Health Organization declared COVID-19 a pandemic in March 2020 just three months after the introduction of the virus. Individual nations have implemented and enforced a variety of social distancing interventions to slow the virus spread, that had different degrees of success. Understanding the role of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on COVID-19 transmission in different settings is highly important. While most such studies have focused on China, neighboring Asian counties, Western Europe, and North America, there is a scarcity of studies for Eastern Europe. The aim of this epidemiological study is to fill this gap by analyzing the characteristics of the first months of the epidemic in Ukraine using agent-based modelling and phylodynamics. Specifically, first we studied the dynamics of COVID-19 incidence and mortality and explored the impact of epidemic NPIs. Our stochastic model suggests, that even a small delay of weeks could have increased the number of cases by up to 50%, with the potential to overwhelm hospital systems. Second, the genomic data analysis suggests that there have been multiple introductions of SARS-CoV-2 into Ukraine during the early stages of the epidemic. Our findings support the conclusion that the implemented travel restrictions may have had limited impact on the epidemic spread. Third, the basic reproduction number for the epidemic that has been estimated independently from case counts data and from genomic data suggest sustained intra-country transmissions.

Investigating the first stage of the COVID-19 pandemic in Ukraine using epidemiological and genomic data.

The novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 was first detected in China in December 2019 and has rapidly spread around the globe. The World Health Organization declared COVID-19 a pandemic in March 2020 just three months after the introduction of the virus. Individual nations have implemented and enforced a variety of social distancing interventions to slow the virus spread, that had different degrees of success. Understanding the role of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on COVID-19 transmission in different settings is highly important. While most such studies have focused on China, neighboring Asian counties, Western Europe, and North America, there is a scarcity of studies for Eastern Europe. The aim of this study is to contribute to filling this gap by analyzing the characteristics of the first months of the epidemic in Ukraine using agent-based modelling and phylodynamics. Specifically, first we studied the dynamics of COVID-19 incidence and mortality and explored the impact of epidemic NPIs. Our stochastic model suggests, that even a small delay of weeks could have increased the number of cases by up to 50%, with the potential to overwhelm hospital systems. Second, the genomic data analysis suggests that there have been multiple introductions of SARS-CoV-2 into Ukraine during the early stages of the epidemic. Our findings support the conclusion that the implemented travel restrictions may have had limited impact on the epidemic spread. Third, the basic reproduction number for the epidemic that has been estimated independently from case counts data and from genomic data suggest sustained intra-country transmissions.

Technology dictates algorithms: recent developments in read alignment.

Aligning sequencing reads onto a reference is an essential step of the majority of genomic analysis pipelines. Computational algorithms for read alignment have evolved in accordance with technological advances, leading to today's diverse array of alignment methods. We provide a systematic survey of algorithmic foundations and methodologies across 107 alignment methods, for both short and long reads. We provide a rigorous experimental evaluation of 11 read aligners to demonstrate the effect of these underlying algorithms on speed and efficiency of read alignment. We discuss how general alignment algorithms have been tailored to the specific needs of various domains in biology.