Circulating proteins protect against renal decline and progression to end-stage renal disease in patients with diabetes.

Diabetic kidney disease (DKD) and its major clinical manifestation, progressive renal decline that leads to end-stage renal disease (ESRD), are a major health burden for individuals with diabetes. The disease process that underlies progressive renal decline comprises factors that increase risk as well as factors that protect against this outcome. Using untargeted proteomic profiling of circulating proteins from individuals in two independent cohorts with type 1 and type 2 diabetes and varying stages of DKD followed for 7 to 15 years, we identified three elevated plasma proteins-fibroblast growth factor 20 (OR, 0.69; 95% CI, 0.54 to 0.88), angiopoietin-1 (OR, 0.72; 95% CI, 0.57 to 0.91), and tumor necrosis factor ligand superfamily member 12 (OR, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.59 to 0.95)-that were associated with protection against progressive renal decline and progression to ESRD. The combined effect of these three protective proteins was demonstrated by very low cumulative risk of ESRD in those who had baseline concentrations above median for all three proteins, whereas the cumulative risk of ESRD was high in those with concentrations below median for these proteins at the beginning of follow-up. This protective effect was shown to be independent from circulating inflammatory proteins and clinical covariates and was confirmed in a third cohort of diabetic individuals with normal renal function. These three protective proteins may serve as biomarkers to stratify diabetic individuals according to risk of progression to ESRD and might also be investigated as potential therapeutics to delay or prevent the onset of ESRD.

COVID-19 Infection Negative in Nasopharyngeal Swabs but Suspected in Computed Tomography and Confirmed in Bronchoalveolar Lavage Material.

We present a case of a patient with clinical symptoms of pneumonia, negative in several polymerase chain reaction COVID-19 tests from nasopharyngeal swabs but suspected in computed tomography and finally confirmed in bronchoalveolar lavage material.

Nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide phosphate (NADPH) oxidase p22phox subunit polymorphisms, systemic oxidative stress, endothelial dysfunction, and atherosclerosis in type 2 diabetes mellitus.

INTRODUCTION: Diabetes mellitus is an important and rapidly increasing problem in public health. It associates with endothelial dysfunction and increased endothelial permeability, which may lead to severe cardiovascular events. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to evaluate the relationship between polymorphisms in the cytochrome b-245 alpha chain (CYBA) gene encoding p22phox, a key subunit of nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide phosphate (NADPH) oxidase, with endothelial function, atherosclerosis and systemic oxidative stress in type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). PATIENTS AND METHODS: Intima-media thickness (IMT), flow- and nitroglycerin-mediated dilatation (FMD and NMD) were measured in 182 patients with T2DM. Assessment of plasma levels of von Willebrand factor (vWF) and malondialdehyde (MDA) levels as well as genotyping of coding sequence C242T (rs4673) and promoter region A-930G (rs9932581) polymorphisms of CYBA were performed using standardized protocols. RESULTS: We observed a significant association of the impaired endothelial function, as measured by FMD, with the C allele of C242T, but not with the A-930G polymorphism. Functional relationship of the C242T polymorphism with endothelial dysfunction remained significant following a multivariable adjustment for major risk factors for atherosclerosis. Mean IMT, NMD, concentrations of MDA or vWF were not related to the specific genotypes of the investigated polymorphisms. CONCLUSIONS: C242T, but not A-930G, polymorphism of CYBA significantly affects endothelial function in T2DM. Thus, it might be a useful marker of endothelial dysfunction in T2DM patients.

Continuous glucose monitoring and insulin pump therapy in pregnant women with type 1 diabetes mellitus.

OBJECTIVES: We examined the impact of continuous subcutaneous insulin infusion (CSII) and continuous glucose monitoring systems (CGM) during pregnancy in women with pre-gestational type 1 diabetes (T1DM) on glycemic control and subsequent adverse outcomes. MATERIAL AND METHODS: In this observational, one-center study we analyzed records of consecutive 109 T1DM pregnancies (2016-2017). The final analyzed group consisted of 81 singleton pregnancies who met inclusion and exclusion criteria. We searched for the association between the use of CSII with or without CGM and pregnancy planning with glycated hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) through pregnancy and after delivery as well as maternal and infant outcomes. RESULTS: Patients using CSII and CGM vs CSII without CGM and MDI (multiple daily injections) users had the lowest HbA1c levels during and after pregnancy (5.3%, 5.3%, 5.2% and 5,5% in the 1st, 2nd, 3rd trimester and postpartum visit, p = 0.003, p = 0.030, p = 0.039 and p = 0.002, respectively). Patients treated with insulin pumps with CGM and additional functions of automatic insulin delivery suspension on low glucose level (SLG) or predictive low glucose suspend (PLGS) during the third trimester and after pregnancy achieved a significantly lower HbA1c than the other CSII patients. We did not find any differences between the study groups in gestational age at delivery, preterm births, birth weight or macrosomia risk. Despite very good glycemic control, the risk of macrosomia remained high (19.7%). CONCLUSIONS: The use of pumps equipped with CGM, especially with automatic insulin delivery suspension, may improve glycemic control in pregnant T1DM women. The proportion of macrosomia remained high.

Mortality Following Clostridioides difficile Infection in Europe: A Retrospective Multicenter Case-Control Study.

We aimed to describe the clinical presentation, treatment, outcome and report on factors associated with mortality over a 90-day period in Clostridioides difficile infection (CDI). Descriptive, univariate, and multivariate regression analyses were performed on data collected in a retrospective case-control study conducted in nine hospitals from seven European countries. A total of 624 patients were included, of which 415 were deceased (cases) and 209 were still alive 90 days after a CDI diagnosis (controls). The most common antibiotics used previously in both groups were ß-lactams; previous exposure to fluoroquinolones was significantly (p = 0.0004) greater in deceased patients. Multivariate logistic regression showed that the factors independently related with death during CDI were older age, inadequate CDI therapy, cachexia, malignancy, Charlson Index, long-term care, elevated white blood cell count (WBC), C-reactive protein (CRP), bacteraemia, complications, and cognitive impairment. In addition, older age, higher levels of WBC, neutrophil, CRP or creatinine, the presence of malignancy, cognitive impairment, and complications were strongly correlated with shortening the time from CDI diagnosis to death. CDI prevention should be primarily focused on hospitalised elderly people receiving antibiotics. WBC, neutrophil count, CRP, creatinine, albumin and lactate levels should be tested in every hospitalised patient treated for CDI to assess the risk of a fatal outcome.

A profile of multiple circulating tumor necrosis factor receptors associated with early progressive kidney decline in Type 1 Diabetes is similar to profiles in autoimmune disorders.

This study comprehensively evaluated the association between known circulating tumor necrosis factor (TNF) superfamily ligands and receptors and the development of early progressive kidney decline (PKD) leading to end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) in Type 1 diabetes. Participants for the study were from the Macro-Albuminuria Study (198 individuals), and the Micro-Albuminuria Study (148 individuals) of the Joslin Kidney Study. All individuals initially had normal kidney function and were followed for seven-fifteen years to determine the slope of the estimate glomerular filtration rate and to ascertain onset of ESKD. Plasma concentrations of 25 TNF superfamily proteins were measured using proximity extension assay applied in the OLINK proteomics platform. In the both studies risk of early PKD, determined as estimated glomerular filtration rate loss greater than or equal to three ml/min/1.73m2/year, was associated with elevated circulating levels of 13 of 19 TNF receptors examined. In the Macro-Albuminuria Study, we obtained similar findings for risk of progression to ESKD. These receptors comprised: TNF-R1A, -R1B, -R3, -R4, -R6, -R6B, -R7, -R10A, -R10B, -R11A, -R14, -R21, and -R27. Serial measurements showed that circulating levels of these TNF receptors had increased before the onset of PKD. In contrast, none of the six measured TNF ligands showed association with risk of early PKD. Of significance, the disease process that underlies PKD leading to ESKD in Type 1 diabetes has a profile also seen in autoimmune disorders. The mechanisms of this enrichment may be causally related to the development of PKD in Type 1 diabetes and must be investigated further. Thus, some of these receptors may be used as new risk predictors of ESKD.

Profibrotic Circulating Proteins and Risk of Early Progressive Renal Decline in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes With and Without Albuminuria.

OBJECTIVE: The role of fibrosis in early progressive renal decline in type 2 diabetes is unknown. Circulating WFDC2 (WAP four-disulfide core domain protein 2) and matrix metalloproteinase 7 (MMP-7; Matrilysin) are postulated to be biomarkers of renal fibrosis. This study examined an association of circulating levels of these proteins with early progressive renal decline. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Individuals with type 2 diabetes enrolled in the Joslin Kidney Study with an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) ≥60 mL/min/1.73 m2 were monitored for 6-12 years to ascertain fast early progressive renal decline, defined as eGFR loss ≥5 mL/min/1.73 m2/year. RESULTS: A total of 1,181 individuals were studied: 681 without and 500 with albuminuria. Median eGFR and albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR) at baseline were 97 mL/min/1.73 m2 and 24 mg/g, respectively. During follow-up, 152 individuals experienced fast early progressive renal decline: 6.9% in those with normoalbuminuria and 21% with albuminuria. In both subgroups, the risk of renal decline increased with increasing baseline levels of WFDC2 (P < 0.0001) and MMP-7 (P < 0.0001). After adjustment for relevant clinical characteristics and known biomarkers, an increase by one quartile in the fibrosis index (combination of levels of WFDC2 and MMP-7) was associated with higher risk of renal decline (odds ratio 1.63; 95% CI 1.30-2.04). The association was similar and statistically significant among patients with and without albuminuria. CONCLUSIONS: Elevation of circulating profibrotic proteins is associated with the development of early progressive renal decline in type 2 diabetes. This association is independent from albuminuria status and points to the importance of the fibrotic process in the development of early renal decline.

A Prospective Pilot Study on Use of Liquid Crystal Thermography to Detect Early Breast Cancer.

Background: Breast cancer is the most common cancer in women. While mammography is the standard for early detection in women older than 50 years of age, there is no standard for younger women. The aim of this prospective pilot study was to assess liquid crystal contact thermography, using the Braster device, as a means for the early detection of breast cancer. The device is intended to be used as a complementary tool to standard of care (sonography, mammography, etc). Patients and Methods: A total of 274 consecutive women presenting at Polish breast centers for prophylactic breast examination were enrolled to receive thermography; 19 were excluded for errors in thermographic image acquisition. The women were divided according to age (n = 135, <50 years; n = 120, ≥50 years). A control population was included (n = 40, <50 years; n = 23, ≥50 years). The primary endpoint, stratified by age group, was the C-statistic for discrimination between breast cancer and noncancer. Results: In women with abnormal breast ultrasound (n = 95, <50 years; n = 87, ≥50 years), the C-statistic was 0.85 and 0.75, respectively (P = .20), for discrimination between breast cancer and noncancer. Sensitivity did not differ (P = .79) between the younger (82%) and older women (78%), while specificity was lower in the older women (60% vs 87%, P = .025). The false-positive rate was similar in women with normal and abnormal breast ultrasound. Positive thermographic result in women with Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System (BIRADS) 4A on ultrasound increased the probability of breast cancer by over 2-fold. Conversely, a negative thermographic result decreased the probability of cancer more than 3-fold. Breast size and structure did not affect the thermography performance. No adverse events were observed. Conclusions: Thermography performed well in women <50 years of age, while its specificity in women ≥50 years was inadequate. These promising findings suggest that the Braster device deserves further investigation as a supporting tool for the early detection of breast cancer in women younger than 50 years of age.

Increased Incidence of Type 1 Diabetes in Children and No Change in the Age of Diagnosis and BMI-SDS at the Onset - is the Accelerator Hypothesis not Working?

Objective: One of the hypothesized reasons for the observed increase in type 1 diabetes incidence in children is weight gain, causing accelerated disease development in predisposed individuals. This so-called accelerator hypothesis is, however, controversial. The aim was to analyze whether, in the ethnically homogeneous population of Lesser Poland, an increase in the number of cases of diabetes among children was associated with younger age and higher body mass index-standard deviation score (BMI-SDS) at the time of diagnosis. Methods: Retrospective data analysis from medical records of all patients <14 years (n=559; 50.6% male), with newly diagnosed type 1 diabetes, in Lesser Poland between 1st January 2006 and 31st December 2017 (11 years). Results: The incidence ratio ranged significantly (p<0.001) from the lowest in 2006 (11.2/100,000/year) to the highest in 2012 (21.9/100,000/year). The mean age of diagnosis was 8.2±3.5 years. There was no trend in decreasing diagnosis age (p=0.43). The mean BMI-SDS was -0.4±1.2. Almost all children (91.6%) presented with BMI-SDS within the normal range at the time of diagnosis, with only 2.7% of cases being obese and 5.7% underweight at the moment of diagnosis. There was no clear trend at all in BMI-SDS over the study period. Conclusion: These results do not corroborate an increase of type 1 incidence in paediatric population being associated with younger age of diagnosis and higher BMI-SDS. This implies that the accelerator hypothesis does not hold true in the study population.

Randomized Clinical Trial of Surgical vs. Percutaneous vs. Hybrid Revascularization in Multivessel Coronary Artery Disease: Residual Myocardial Ischemia and Clinical Outcomes at One Year-Hybrid coronary REvascularization Versus Stenting or Surgery (HREVS).

AIM: Optimal revascularization strategy in multivessel (MV) coronary artery disease (CAD) eligible for percutaneous management (PCI) and surgery remains unresolved. We evaluated, in a randomized clinical trial, residual myocardial ischemia (RI) and clinical outcomes of MV-CAD revascularization using coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG), hybrid coronary revascularization (HCR), or MV-PCI. METHODS: Consecutive MV-CAD patients (n = 155) were randomized (1 : 1 : 1) to conventional CABG (LIMA-LAD plus venous grafts) or HCR (MIDCAB LIMA-LAD followed by PCI for remaining vessels) or MV-PCI (everolimus-eluting CoCr stents) under Heart Team agreement on equal technical and clinical feasibility of each strategy. SPECT at 12 months (primary endpoint of RI that the trial was powered for; a measure of revascularization midterm efficacy and an independent predictor of long-term prognosis) preceded routine angiographic control. RESULTS: Data are given, respectively, for the CABG, HCR, and MV-PCI arms. Incomplete revascularization rate was 8.0% vs. 7.7% vs. 5.7% (p=0.71). Hospital stay was 13.8 vs. 13.5 vs. 4.5 days (p < 0.001), and sick-leave duration was 23 vs. 16 vs. 8 weeks (p < 0.001). At 12 months, RI was 5 (2, 9)% vs. 5 (3, 7)% vs. 6 (3, 10)% (median; Q1, Q3) with noninferiority p values of 0.0006 (HCR vs. CABG) and 0.016 (MV-PCI vs. CABG). Rates of angiographic graft stenosis/occlusion or in-segment restenosis were 20.4% vs. 8.2% vs. 5.9% (p=0.05). Clinical target vessel/graft failure occurred in 12.0% vs. 11.5% vs. 11.3% (p=0.62). Major adverse cardiac and cerebral event (MACCE) rate was similar (12% vs. 13.4% vs. 13.2%; p=0.83). CONCLUSION: In this first randomized controlled study comparing CABG, HCR, and MV-PCI, residual myocardial ischemia and MACCE were similar at 12 months. There was no midterm indication of any added value of HCR. Hospital stay and sick-leave duration were shortest with MV-PCI. While longer-term follow-up is warranted, these findings may impact patient and physician choices and healthcare resources utilization. This trial is registered with NCT01699048.

Genome-Wide Association Study of Diabetic Kidney Disease Highlights Biology Involved in Glomerular Basement Membrane Collagen.

BACKGROUND: Although diabetic kidney disease demonstrates both familial clustering and single nucleotide polymorphism heritability, the specific genetic factors influencing risk remain largely unknown. METHODS: To identify genetic variants predisposing to diabetic kidney disease, we performed genome-wide association study (GWAS) analyses. Through collaboration with the Diabetes Nephropathy Collaborative Research Initiative, we assembled a large collection of type 1 diabetes cohorts with harmonized diabetic kidney disease phenotypes. We used a spectrum of ten diabetic kidney disease definitions based on albuminuria and renal function. RESULTS: Our GWAS meta-analysis included association results for up to 19,406 individuals of European descent with type 1 diabetes. We identified 16 genome-wide significant risk loci. The variant with the strongest association (rs55703767) is a common missense mutation in the collagen type IV alpha 3 chain (COL4A3) gene, which encodes a major structural component of the glomerular basement membrane (GBM). Mutations in COL4A3 are implicated in heritable nephropathies, including the progressive inherited nephropathy Alport syndrome. The rs55703767 minor allele (Asp326Tyr) is protective against several definitions of diabetic kidney disease, including albuminuria and ESKD, and demonstrated a significant association with GBM width; protective allele carriers had thinner GBM before any signs of kidney disease, and its effect was dependent on glycemia. Three other loci are in or near genes with known or suggestive involvement in this condition (BMP7) or renal biology (COLEC11 and DDR1). CONCLUSIONS: The 16 diabetic kidney disease-associated loci may provide novel insights into the pathogenesis of this condition and help identify potential biologic targets for prevention and treatment.

Risk factors of hypoglycaemia in type 1 diabetes individuals during intensive sport exercise-Data from the SPORTGIVECHANCE event.

AIMS: Fear of hypoglycaemia seems to be one of the strongest barrier to physical activity for individuals with type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM).The aim of the study was to describe clinical characteristics of participants with T1DM in the intense sporting event of runs and bike rides"SPORTGIVECHANCE-Diabetic runners and cyclists for more sport for all in Europe", and investigate factors associated with self-reported hypoglycaemia episodes during the competition, in particular the use of continuous and flash glucose monitoring systems (CGM/FGM). METHODS: The sporting event took place in Spoleto, Italy from 30 August 2018 to 2 September 2018. An online survey was distributed among 150 participants with diabetes. Only T1DM patients were invited to complete the survey that included questions on baseline clinical characteristics as well as glucose control and meal related issues during the competition. Logistic regression was used to determine factors associated with reported hypoglycaemia. RESULTS: There were 35 T1DM individuals who completed the questionnaire: eight subjects were continuous glucose monitoring system (CGM) users, 10 used flash glucose monitoring systems (FGM), while the others performed self-measured blood glucose measurements (SMBG) on glucose meters. Mild hypoglycaemia episodes during the competition were reported by four CGM/FGM users and six non-users (OR: 0.73, CI: 0.34-1.53). No severe hypoglycaemic episode was reported. Body mass index (BMI) (OR: 1.47, CI: 1.01-2.13) and subjectively very hard or maximal intensity of the competition (OR: 4.90, CI: 1.51-15.89) were associated with a higher risk of hypoglycaemia. CONCLUSIONS: Data obtained from the self-selected sample of T1DM patients suggests that T1DM individuals can participate in intense sport competitions with moderate risk of mild hypoglycaemia regardless of CGM/FGM or SMBG use.

A signature of circulating inflammatory proteins and development of end-stage renal disease in diabetes.

Chronic inflammation is postulated to be involved in the development of end-stage renal disease in diabetes, but which specific circulating inflammatory proteins contribute to this risk remain unknown. To study this, we examined 194 circulating inflammatory proteins in subjects from three independent cohorts with type 1 and type 2 diabetes. In each cohort, we identified an extremely robust kidney risk inflammatory signature (KRIS), consisting of 17 proteins enriched in tumor necrosis factor-receptor superfamily members, that was associated with a 10-year risk of end-stage renal disease. All these proteins had a systemic, non-kidney source. Our prospective study findings provide strong evidence that KRIS proteins contribute to the inflammatory process underlying end-stage renal disease development in both types of diabetes. These proteins point to new therapeutic targets and new prognostic tests to identify subjects at risk of end-stage renal disease, as well as biomarkers to measure responses to treatment of diabetic kidney disease.

A decision algorithm to identify patients with high probability of monogenic diabetes due to HNF1A mutations.

PURPOSE: To investigate the utility of biomarkers of maturity-onset diabetes of the young (MODY), high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP), and 1,5-anhydroglucitol (1,5-AG) in conjunction with other clinical and laboratory features to improve diagnostic accuracy and provide a diagnostic algorithm for HNF1A MODY. METHODS: We examined 77 patients with HNF1A MODY, 88 with GCK MODY mutations, 99 with type 1 diabetes, and 92 with type 2 diabetes. In addition to 1,5-AG and hsCRP, we considered body mass index (BMI), fasting glucose, and fasting serum C-peptide as potential biomarkers. Logistic regression and receiver operating characteristic curves were used in marker evaluation. RESULTS: Concentration of hsCRP was lowest in HNF1A MODY (0.51 mg/l) and highest in type 2 diabetes (1.33 mg/l). The level of 1,5-AG was lowest in type 1 diabetes and HNF1A MODY, 3.8 and 4.7 µg/ml, respectively, and highest (11.2 µg/ml) in GCK MODY. In the diagnostic algorithm, we first excluded patients with type 1 diabetes based on low C-peptide (C-statistic 0.98) before using high BMI and C-peptide to identify type 2 diabetes patients (C-statistic 0.92). Finally, 1,5-AG and hsCRP in conjunction yielded a C-statistic of 0.86 in discriminating HNF1A from GCK MODY. We correctly classified 92.9% of patients with type 1 diabetes, 84.8% with type 2 diabetes, 64.9% HNF1A MODY, and 52.3% GCK MODY patients. CONCLUSIONS: Plasma 1,5-AG and serum hsCRP do not discriminate sufficiently HNF1A MODY from common diabetes types, but could be potentially useful in prioritizing Sanger sequencing of HNF1A gene.

Variations in Risk of End-Stage Renal Disease and Risk of Mortality in an International Study of Patients With Type 1 Diabetes and Advanced Nephropathy.

OBJECTIVE: Patients with type 1 diabetes and diabetic nephropathy are targets for intervention to reduce high risk of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) and deaths. This study compares risks of these outcomes in four international cohorts. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: In the 1990s and early 2000s, Caucasian patients with type 1 diabetes with persistent macroalbuminuria in chronic kidney disease stages 1-3 were identified in the Joslin Clinic (U.S., 432), Finnish Diabetic Nephropathy Study (FinnDiane) (Finland, 486), Steno Diabetes Center Copenhagen (Denmark, 368), and INSERM (France, 232) and were followed for 3-18 years with annual creatinine measurements to ascertain ESRD and deaths unrelated to ESRD. RESULTS: During 15,685 patient-years, 505 ESRD cases (rate 32/1,000 patient-years) and 228 deaths unrelated to ESRD (rate 14/1,000 patient-years) occurred. Risk of ESRD was associated with male sex; younger age; lower estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR); higher albumin/creatinine ratio, HbA1c, and systolic blood pressure; and smoking. Risk of death unrelated to ESRD was associated with older age, smoking, and higher baseline eGFR. In adjusted analysis, ESRD risk was highest in Joslin versus reference FinnDiane (hazard ratio [HR] 1.44, P = 0.003) and lowest in Steno (HR 0.54, P < 0.001). Differences in eGFR slopes paralleled risk of ESRD. Mortality unrelated to ESRD was lowest in Joslin (HR 0.68, P = 0.003 vs. the other cohorts). Competing risk did not explain international differences in the outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Despite almost universal renoprotective treatment, progression to ESRD and mortality in patients with type 1 diabetes with advanced nephropathy are still very high and differ among countries. Finding causes of these differences may help reduce risk of these outcomes.

Markers of early progressive renal decline in type 2 diabetes suggest different implications for etiological studies and prognostic tests development.

To identify determinants of early progressive renal decline in type 2 diabetes a range of markers was studied in 1032 patients enrolled into the 2nd Joslin Kidney Study. eGFR slopes estimated from serial measurements of serum creatinine during 5-12 years of follow-up were used to define early renal decline. At enrollment, all patients had normal eGFR, 58% had normoalbuminuria and 42% had albuminuria. Early renal decline developed in 6% and in 18% patients, respectively. As determinants, we examined baseline values of clinical characteristics, circulating markers: TNFR1, KIM-1, and FGF23, and urinary markers: albumin, KIM-1, NGAL, MCP-1, EGF (all normalized to urinary creatinine) and the ratio of EGF to MCP-1. In univariate analysis, all plasma and urinary markers were significantly associated with risk of early renal decline. When analyzed together, systolic blood pressure, TNFR1, KIM-1, the albumin to creatinine ratio, and the EGF/MCP-1 ratio remained significant with the latter having the strongest effect. Integration of these markers into a multi-marker prognostic test resulted in a significant improvement of discriminatory performance of risk prediction of early renal decline, compared with the albumin to creatinine ratio and systolic blood pressure alone. However, the positive predictive value was only 50% in albuminuric patients. Thus, markers in plasma and urine indicate that the early progressive renal decline in Type 2 diabetes has multiple determinants with strong evidence for involvement of tubular damage. However, new, more informative markers are needed to develop a better prognostic test for such decline that can be used in a clinical setting.

Improved clinical trial enrollment criterion to identify patients with diabetes at risk of end-stage renal disease.

Design of Phase III trials for diabetic nephropathy currently requires patients at a high risk of progression defined as within three years of a hard end point (end-stage renal disease, 40% loss of estimated glomerular filtration rate, or death). To improve the design of these trials, we used natural history data from the Joslin Kidney Studies of chronic kidney disease in patients with diabetes to develop an improved criterion to identify such patients. This included a training cohort of 279 patients with type 1 diabetes and 134 end points within three years, and a validation cohort of 221 patients with type 2 diabetes and 88 end points. Previous trials selected patients using clinical criteria for baseline urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio and estimated glomerular filtration rate. Application of these criteria to our cohort data yielded sensitivities (detection of patients at risk) of 70-80% and prognostic values of only 52-63%. We applied classification and regression trees analysis to select from among all clinical characteristics and markers the optimal prognostic criterion that divided patients with type 1 diabetes according to risk. The optimal criterion was a serum tumor necrosis factor receptor 1 level over 4.3 ng/ml alone or 2.9-4.3 ng/ml with an albumin-to-creatinine ratio over 1900 mg/g. Remarkably, this criterion produced similar results in both type 1 and type 2 diabetic patients. Overall, sensitivity and prognostic value were high (72% and 81%, respectively). Thus, application of this criterion to enrollment in future clinical trials could reduce the sample size required to achieve adequate statistical power for detection of treatment benefits.

Fast renal decline to end-stage renal disease: an unrecognized feature of nephropathy in diabetes.

A new model of diabetic nephropathy in type 1 diabetes emerged from our studies of Joslin Clinic patients. The dominant feature is progressive renal decline, not albuminuria. This decline is a unidirectional process commencing while patients have normal renal function and, in the majority, progressing steadily (linearly) to end-stage renal disease (ESRD). While an individual's rate of renal decline is constant, the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) slope varies widely among individuals from -72 to -3.0 ml/min/year. Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes guidelines define rapid progression as rate of eGFR declines > 5 ml/min/year, a value exceeded by 80% of patients in Joslin's type 1 diabetes ESRD cohort. The extraordinary range of slopes within the rapid progression category prompted us to partition it into "very fast," "fast" and "moderate" decline. We showed, for the first time, that very fast and fast decline from normal eGFR to ESRD within 2 to 10 years constitutes 50% of the Joslin cohort. In this review we present data about frequency of fast decliners in both diabetes types, survey some mechanisms underlying fast renal decline, discuss methods of identifying patients at risk and comment on the need for effective therapeutic interventions. Whether the initiating mechanism of fast renal decline affects glomerulus, tubule, interstitium or vasculature is unknown. Since no animal model mimics progressive renal decline, studies in humans are needed. Prospective studies searching for markers predictive of the rate of renal decline yield findings that may make detection of fast decliners feasible. Identifying such patients will be the foundation for developing effective individualized methods to prevent or delay onset of ESRD in diabetes.