Peering into the future: pediatrics in a changing world.

Over the last decade, health care has experienced continuous, capricious, and ever-accelerating change. In response, the American Academy of Pediatrics convened the Vision of Pediatrics (VOP) 2020 Task Force in 2008. This task force was charged with identifying forces that affect child and adolescent health and the implications for the field of pediatrics. It determined that shifts in demographics, socioeconomics, health status, health care delivery, and scientific advances mandate creative responses to these current trends. Eight megatrends were identified as foci for the profession to address over the coming decade. Given the unpredictable speed and direction of change, the VOP 2020 Task Force concluded that our profession needs to adopt an ongoing process to prepare for and lead change. The task force proposed that pediatric clinicians, practices, organizations, and interest groups embark on a continual process of preparing, envisioning, engaging, and reshaping (PEER) change. This PEER cycle involves (1) preparing our capacity to actively participate in change efforts, (2) envisioning possible futures and potential strategies through ongoing conversations, (3) engaging change strategies to lead any prioritized changes, and (4) reshaping our futures on the basis of results of any change strategies and novel trends in the field. By illustrating this process as a cycle of inquiry and action, we deliberately capture the continuous aspects of successful change processes that attempt to peer into a multiplicity of futures to anticipate and lead change.

Pediatrics in the year 2020 and beyond: preparing for plausible futures.

Although the future of pediatrics is uncertain, the organizations that lead pediatrics, and the professionals who practice within it, have embraced the notion that the pediatric community must anticipate and lead change to ultimately improve the health of children and adolescents. In an attempt to proactively prepare for a variety of conceivable futures, the board of directors of the American Academy of Pediatrics established the Vision of Pediatrics 2020 Task Force in 2008. This group was charged to think broadly about the future of pediatrics, to gather input on key trends that are influencing the future, to create likely scenarios of the future, and to recommend strategies to best prepare pediatric clinicians and pediatric organizations for a range of potential futures. The work of this task force led to the development of 8 "megatrends" that were identified as highly likely to have a profound influence on the future of pediatrics. A separate list of "wild-card" scenarios was created of trends with the potential to have a substantial influence but are less likely to occur. The process of scenario-planning was used to consider the effects of the 8 megatrends on pediatrics in the year 2020 and beyond. Consideration of these possible scenarios affords the opportunity to determine potential future pediatric needs, to identify potential solutions to address those needs, and, ultimately, to proactively prepare the profession to thrive if these or other future scenarios become realities.