Variation in seizure risk increases from antiseizure medication withdrawal among patients with well-controlled epilepsy: A pooled analysis.

OBJECTIVE: Guidelines suggest considering antiseizure medication (ASM) discontinuation in seizure-free patients with epilepsy. Past work has poorly explored how discontinuation effects vary between patients. We evaluated (1) what factors modify the influence of discontinuation on seizure risk; and (2) the range of seizure risk increase due to discontinuation across low- versus high-risk patients. METHODS: We pooled three datasets including seizure-free patients who did and did not discontinue ASMs. We conducted time-to-first-seizure analyses. First, we evaluated what individual patient factors modified the relative effect of ASM discontinuation on seizure risk via interaction terms. Then, we assessed the distribution of 2-year risk increase as predicted by our adjusted logistic regressions. RESULTS: We included 1626 patients, of whom 678 (42%) planned to discontinue all ASMs. The mean predicted 2-year seizure risk was 43% [95% confidence interval (CI) 39%-46%] for discontinuation versus 21% (95% CI 19%-24%) for continuation. The mean 2-year absolute seizure risk increase was 21% (95% CI 18%-26%). No individual interaction term was significant after correcting for multiple comparisons. The median [interquartile range (IQR)] risk increase across patients was 19% (IQR 14%-24%; range 7%-37%). Results were unchanged when restricting analyses to only the two RCTs. SIGNIFICANCE: No single patient factor significantly modified the influence of discontinuation on seizure risk, although we captured how absolute risk increases change for patients that are at low versus high risk. Patients should likely continue ASMs if even a 7% 2-year increase in the chance of any more seizures would be too much and should likely discontinue ASMs if even a 37% risk increase would be too little. In between these extremes, individualized risk calculation and a careful understanding of patient preferences are critical. Future work will further develop a two-armed individualized seizure risk calculator and contextualize seizure risk thresholds below which to consider discontinuation. PLAIN LANGUAGE SUMMARY: Understanding how much antiseizure medications (ASMs) decrease seizure risk is an important part of determining which patients with epilepsy should be treated, especially for patients who have not had a seizure in a while. We found that there was a wide range in the amount that ASM discontinuation increases seizure risk-between 7% and 37%. We found that no single patient factor modified that amount. Understanding what a patient's seizure risk might be if they discontinued versus continued ASM treatment is critical to making informed decisions about whether the benefit of treatment outweighs the downsides.

Clinical characteristics and diagnoses of 1213 children referred to a first seizure clinic.

OBJECTIVE: New-onset seizure-like events (SLEs) are common in children, but differentiating between epilepsy and its mimics is challenging. This study provides an overview of the clinical characteristics, diagnoses, and corresponding etiologies of children evaluated at a first seizure clinic (FSC), which will be helpful for all physicians involved in the care of children with SLEs. METHODS: We included 1213 children who were referred to the FSC of a Dutch tertiary children's hospital over a 13-year period and described their clinical characteristics, first routine EEG recording results, and the distribution and specification of their eventual epilepsy and non-epilepsy diagnoses. The time interval to correct diagnosis and the diagnostic accuracy of the FSC were evaluated. RESULTS: "Epilepsy" was eventually diagnosed in 407 children (33.5%), "no epilepsy" in 737 (60.8%), and the diagnosis remained "unclear" in 69 (5.7%). Epileptiform abnormalities were seen in 60.9% of the EEG recordings in the "epilepsy" group, and in 5.7% and 11.6% of the "no epilepsy" and "unclear" group, respectively. Of all children with final "epilepsy" and "no epilepsy" diagnoses, 68.6% already received their diagnosis at FSC consultation, and 2.9% of the children were initially misdiagnosed. The mean time to final diagnosis was 2.0 months, and 91.3% of all children received their final diagnosis within 12 months after the FSC consultation. SIGNIFICANCE: We describe the largest pediatric FSC cohort to date, which can serve as a clinical frame of reference. The experience and expertise built at FSCs will improve and accelerate diagnosis in children with SLEs. PLAIN LANGUAGE SUMMARY: Many children experience events that resemble but not necessarily are seizures. Distinguishing between seizures and seizure mimics is important but challenging. Specialized first-seizure clinics can help with this. Here, we report data from 1213 children who were referred to the first seizure clinic of a Dutch children's hospital. One-third of them were diagnosed with epilepsy. In 68.8% of all children-with and without epilepsy-the diagnosis was made during the first consultation. Less than 3% were misdiagnosed. This study may help physicians in what to expect regarding the diagnoses in children who present with events that resemble seizures.

The importance of discriminative power rather than significance when evaluating potential clinical biomarkers in epilepsy research.

OBJECTIVE: The quest for epilepsy biomarkers is on the rise. Variables with statistically significant group-level differences are often misinterpreted as biomarkers with sufficient discriminative power. This study aimed to demonstrate the relationship between significant group-level differences and a variable's power to discriminate between individuals. METHODS: We simulated normal-distributed datasets from hypothetical populations with varying sample sizes (25-800), effect sizes (Cohen's d: .25-2.50), and variability (standard deviation: 10-35) to assess the impact of these parameters on significance and discriminative power. The simulation data were illustrated by assessing the discriminative power of a potential real-case biomarker-the EEG beta band power-to diagnose generalized epilepsy, using data from 66 children with generalized epilepsy and 385 controls. Additionally, we evaluated recently reported epilepsy biomarkers by comparing their effect sizes to our simulation-derived effect size criterion. RESULTS: Group size affects significance but not discriminative power. Discriminative power is much more related to variability and effect size. Our real data example supported these simulation results by demonstrating that group-level significance does not translate, one to one, into discriminative power. Although we found a significant difference in the beta band power between children with and without epilepsy, the discriminative power was poor due to a small effect size. A Cohen's d of at least 1.25 is required to reach good discriminative power in univariable prediction modeling. Slightly over 60% of the biomarkers in our literature search met this criterion. SIGNIFICANCE: Rather than statistical significance of group-level differences, effect size should be used as an indicator of a variable's biomarker potential. The minimal required effects size for individual biomarkers-a Cohen's d of 1.25-is large. This calls for multivariable approaches, in which combining multiple variables with smaller effect sizes could increase the overall effect size and discriminative power.

Antiseizure Medication Withdrawal Practice Patterns: A Survey Among Members of the American Academy of Neurology and EpiCARE.

Background and Objectives: To describe neurologist practice patterns, challenges, and decision support needs pertaining to withdrawal of antiseizure medications (ASMs) in patients with well-controlled epilepsy. Methods: We sent an electronic survey to (1) US and (2) European physician members of the American Academy of Neurology and (3) members of EpiCARE, a European Reference Network for rare and complex epilepsies. Analyses included frequencies and percentages, and we showed distributions through histograms and violin plots. Results: We sent the survey to 4,923 individuals; 463 consented, 411 passed eligibility questions, and 287 responded to at least 1 of these questions. Most respondents indicated that they might ever consider ASM withdrawal, with respondents treating mostly children being more likely ever to consider withdrawal (e.g., medical monotherapy: children 96% vs adults 81%; p < 0.05). The most important factors when making decisions included seizure probability (83%), consequences of seizures (73%), and driving (74%). The top challenges when making decisions included unclear seizure probability (81%), inadequate guidelines (50%), and difficulty communicating probabilities (45%). Respondents would consider withdrawal after a median of 2-year seizure freedom, but also responded that they would begin withdrawal on average only when the postwithdrawal seizure relapse risk in the coming 2 years was less than 15%-30%. Wide variation existed in the use of words or numbers in respondents' counsel methods, for example, percentages vs frequencies or probability of seizure freedom vs seizure. The most highly rated point-of-care methods to inform providers of calculated risk were Kaplan-Meier curves and showing percentages only, rather than pictographs or text recommendations alone. Discussion: Most surveyed neurologists would consider withdrawing ASMs in seizure-free individuals. Seizure probability was the largest factor driving decisions, yet estimating seizure probabilities was the greatest challenge. Respondents on average indicated that they may withdraw ASM after a minimum seizure-free duration of 2 years, yet also on average were willing to withdraw when seizure risk decreased below 15%-30%, which is lower than most patients' postwithdrawal risk at 2-year seizure freedom and lower than the equivalent even of a first seizure of life. These findings will inform future efforts at developing decision support tools aimed at optimizing ASM withdrawal decisions.

Antiseizure medication withdrawal risk estimation and recommendations: A survey of American Academy of Neurology and EpiCARE members.

OBJECTIVE: Choosing candidates for antiseizure medication (ASM) withdrawal in well-controlled epilepsy is challenging. We evaluated (a) the correlation between neurologists' seizure risk estimation ("clinician predictions") vs calculated predictions, (b) how viewing calculated predictions influenced recommendations, and (c) barriers to using risk calculation. METHODS: We asked US and European neurologists to predict 2-year seizure risk after ASM withdrawal for hypothetical vignettes. We compared ASM withdrawal recommendations before vs after viewing calculated predictions, using generalized linear models. RESULTS: Three-hundred and forty-six neurologists responded. There was moderate correlation between clinician and calculated predictions (Spearman coefficient 0.42). Clinician predictions varied widely, for example, predictions ranged 5%-100% for a 2-year seizure-free adult without epileptiform abnormalities. Mean clinician predictions exceeded calculated predictions for vignettes with epileptiform abnormalities (eg, childhood absence epilepsy: clinician 65%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 57%-74%; calculated 46%) and surgical vignettes (eg, focal cortical dysplasia 6-month seizure-free mean clinician 56%, 95% CI 52%-60%; calculated 28%). Clinicians overestimated the influence of epileptiform EEG findings on withdrawal risk (26%, 95% CI 24%-28%) compared with calculators (14%, 95% 13%-14%). Viewing calculated predictions slightly reduced willingness to withdraw (-0.8/10 change, 95% CI -1.0 to -0.7), particularly for vignettes without epileptiform abnormalities. The greatest barrier to calculator use was doubting its accuracy (44%). SIGNIFICANCE: Clinicians overestimated the influence of abnormal EEGs particularly for low-risk patients and overestimated risk and the influence of seizure-free duration for surgical patients, compared with calculators. These data may question widespread ordering of EEGs or time-based seizure-free thresholds for surgical patients. Viewing calculated predictions reduced willingness to withdraw particularly without epileptiform abnormalities.

Frequency of and factors associated with antiseizure medication discontinuation discussions and decisions in patients with epilepsy: A multicenter retrospective chart review.

OBJECTIVE: Guidelines suggest considering antiseizure medication (ASM) discontinuation in patients with epilepsy who become seizure-free. Little is known about how discontinuation decisions are being made in practice. We measured the frequency of, and factors associated with, discussions and decisions surrounding ASM discontinuation. METHODS: We performed a multicenter retrospective cohort study at the University of Michigan (UM) and two Dutch centers: Wilhelmina Children's Hospital (WCH) and Stichting Epilepsie Instellingen Nederland (SEIN). We screened all children and adults with outpatient epilepsy visits in January 2015 and included those with at least one visit during the subsequent 2 years where they were seizure-free for at least one year. We recorded whether charts documented (1) a discussion with the patient about possible ASM discontinuation and (2) any planned attempt to discontinue at least one ASM. We conducted multilevel logistic regressions to determine factors associated with each outcome. RESULTS: We included 1058 visits from 463 patients. Of all patients who were seizure-free at least one year, 248/463 (53%) had documentation of any discussion and 98/463 (21%) planned to discontinue at least one ASM. Corresponding frequencies for patients who were seizure-free at least 2 years were 184/285 (65%) and 74/285 (26%). The probability of discussing or discontinuing increased with longer duration of seizure freedom. Still, even for patients who were 10 years seizure-free, our models predicated that in only 49% of visits was a discontinuation discussion documented, and in only 16% of visits was it decided to discontinue all ASMs. Provider-to-provider variation explained 18% of variation in whether patients discontinued any ASM. SIGNIFICANCE: Only approximately half of patients with prolonged seizure freedom had a documented discussion about ASM discontinuation. Discontinuation was fairly rare even among low-risk patients. Future work should further explore barriers to and facilitators of counseling and discontinuation attempts.

Incidence of and predictors for antiseizure medication gaps in Medicare beneficiaries with epilepsy: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: For the two-thirds of patients with epilepsy who achieve seizure remission on antiseizure medications (ASMs), patients and clinicians must weigh the pros and cons of long-term ASM treatment. However, little work has evaluated how often ASM discontinuation occurs in practice. We describe the incidence of and predictors for sustained ASM fill gaps to measure discontinuation in individuals potentially eligible for ASM withdrawal. METHODS: This was a retrospective cohort of Medicare beneficiaries. We included patients with epilepsy by requiring International Classification of Diseases codes for epilepsy/convulsions plus at least one ASM prescription each year 2014-2016, and no acute visit for epilepsy 2014-2015 (i.e., potentially eligible for ASM discontinuation). The main outcome was the first day of a gap in ASM supply (30, 90, 180, or 360 days with no pills) in 2016-2018. We displayed cumulative incidence functions and identified predictors using Cox regressions. RESULTS: Among 21,819 beneficiaries, 5191 (24%) had a 30-day gap, 1753 (8%) had a 90-day gap, 803 (4%) had a 180-day gap, and 381 (2%) had a 360-day gap. Predictors increasing the chance of a 180-day gap included number of unique medications in 2015 (hazard ratio [HR] 1.03 per medication, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.01-1.05) and epileptologist prescribing physician (≥25% of that physician's visits for epilepsy; HR 2.37, 95% CI 1.39-4.03). Predictors decreasing the chance of a 180-day gap included Medicaid dual eligibility (HR 0.75, 95% CI 0.60-0.95), number of unique ASMs in 2015 (e.g., 2 versus 1: HR 0.37, 95% CI 0.30-0.45), and greater baseline adherence (> 80% versus ≤80% of days in 2015 with ASM pill supply: HR 0.38, 95% CI 0.32-0.44). CONCLUSIONS: Sustained ASM gaps were rarer than current guidelines may suggest. Future work should further explore barriers and enablers of ASM discontinuation to understand the optimal discontinuation rate.

Reappraisal of the Medical Research Council Antiepileptic Drug Withdrawal Study: Contamination-adjusted and dose-response re-analysis.

OBJECTIVE: The 1991 Medical Research Council (MRC) Study compared seizure relapse for seizure-free patients randomized to withdraw vs continue of antiseizure medications (ASMs). We re-analyzed this trial to account for crossover between arms using contamination-adjusted intention to treat (CA ITT) methods, to explore dose-response curves, and to validate predictions against external data. ITT assesses the effect of being randomized to withdraw, as-treated analysis assesses the confounded effect of withdrawing, but CA ITT assesses the unconfounded effect of actually withdrawing. METHODS: CA ITT involves two stages. First, we used randomized arm to predict whether patients withdrew their ASM (logistic) or total daily ASM dose (linear). Second, we used those values to predict seizure occurrence (logistic). RESULTS: The trial randomized 503 patients to withdraw and 501 patients to continue ASMs. We found that 316 of 376 patients (88%) who were randomized to withdraw decreased their dose at every pre-seizure visit, compared with 35 of 424 (8%) who were randomized to continue (p < .01). Adjusted odds ratios of a 2-year seizure for those who withdrew vs those who did not was 1.3 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.9-1.9) in the as-treated analysis, 2.5 (95% CI 1.9-3.4) comparing those randomized to withdraw vs continue for ITT, and 3.1 (95% CI 2.1-4.5) for CA ITT. Probabilities (withdrawal vs continue) were 28% vs 24% (as-treated), 40% vs 22% (ITT), and 43% vs 21% (CA ITT). Differences between ITT and CA ITT were greater when varying the predictor (reaching zero ASMs) or outcome (1-year seizures). As-treated dose-response curves demonstrated little to no effects, but larger effects in CA ITT analysis. MRC data overpredicted risk in Lossius data, with moderate discrimination (areas under the curve ~0.70). SIGNIFICANCE: CA ITT results (the effect of actually withdrawing ASMs on seizures) were slightly greater than ITT effects (the effect of recommend withdrawing ASMs on seizures). How these findings affect clinical practice must be individualized.

An updated systematic review and meta-analysis of brain network organization in focal epilepsy: Looking back and forth.

Abnormalities of the brain network organization in focal epilepsy have been extensively quantified. However, the extent and directionality of abnormalities are highly variable and subtype insensitive. We conducted meta-analyses to obtain a more accurate and epilepsy type-specific quantification of the interictal global brain network organization in focal epilepsy. By using random-effects models, we estimated differences in average clustering coefficient, average path length, and modularity between patients with focal epilepsy and controls, based on 45 studies with a total sample size of 1,468 patients and 1,021 controls. Structural networks had a significant lower level of integration in patients with epilepsy as compared to controls, with a standardized mean difference of -0.334 (95 % confidence interval -0.631 to -0.038; p-value 0.027). Functional networks did not differ between patients and controls, except for the beta band clustering coefficient. Our meta-analyses show that differences in the brain network organization are not as well defined as individual studies often propose. We discuss potential pitfalls and suggestions to enhance the yield and clinical value of network studies.

Increased and unjustified CT usage in paediatric C-spine clearance in a level 2 trauma centre.

PURPOSE: Cervical spine injury after blunt trauma in children is rare but can have severe consequences. Clear protocols for diagnostic workup are, therefore, needed, but currently not available. As a step in developing such a protocol, we determined the incidence of cervical spine injury and the degree of protocol adherence at our level 2 trauma centre. METHODS: We analysed data from all patients aged < 16 years suspected of cervical spine injury after blunt trauma who had presented to our hospital during two periods: January 2010 to June 2012, and January 2017 to June 2019. In the intervening period, the imaging protocol for diagnostic workup was updated. Outcomes were the incidence of cervical spine injury and protocol adherence in terms of the indication for imaging and the type of imaging. RESULTS: We included 170 children in the first study period and 83 in the second. One patient was diagnosed with cervical spine injury. Protocol adherence regarding the indication for imaging was > 80% in both periods. Adherence regarding the imaging type decreased over time, with 45.8% of the patients receiving a primary CT scan in the second study period versus 2.9% in the first. CONCLUSION: Radiographic imaging is frequently performed when clearing the paediatric cervical spine, although cervical spine injury is rare. Particularly CT scan usage has wrongly been emerging over time. Stricter adherence to current protocols could limit overuse of radiographic imaging, but ultimately there is a need for an accurate rule predicting which children really are at risk of injury.

White matter abnormalities at a regional and voxel level in focal and generalized epilepsy: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVE: Since the introduction of diffusion tensor imaging, white matter abnormalities in epilepsy have been studied extensively. However, the affected areas reported, the extent of abnormalities and the association with relevant clinical parameters are highly variable. We aimed to obtain a more consistent estimate of white matter abnormalities and their association with clinical parameters in different epilepsy types. METHODS: We systematically searched for differences in white matter fractional anisotropy and mean diffusivity, at regional and voxel level, between people with epilepsy and healthy controls. Meta-analyses were used to quantify the directionality and extent of these differences. Correlations between white matter differences and age of epilepsy onset, duration of epilepsy and sex were assessed with meta-regressions. RESULTS: Forty-two studies, with 1027 people with epilepsy and 1122 controls, were included with regional data. Sixteen voxel-based studies were also included. People with temporal or frontal lobe epilepsy had significantly decreased fractional anisotropy (Δ -0.021, 95% confidence interval -0.026 to -0.016) and increased mean diffusivity (Δ0.026 × 10-3 mm2/s, 0.012 to 0.039) in the commissural, association and projection white matter fibers. White matter was much less affected in generalized epilepsy. White matter changes in people with focal epilepsy correlated with age at onset, epilepsy duration and sex. SIGNIFICANCE: This study provides a better estimation of white matter changes in different epilepsies. Effects are particularly found in people with focal epilepsy. Correlations with the duration of focal epilepsy support the hypothesis that these changes are, at least partly, a consequence of seizures and may warrant early surgery. Future studies need to guarantee adequate group sizes, as white matter differences in epilepsy are small.