Dietary Fatty Acids, Macronutrient Substitutions, Food Sources and Incidence of Coronary Heart Disease: Findings From the EPIC-CVD Case-Cohort Study Across Nine European Countries.

Background There is controversy about associations between total dietary fatty acids, their classes (saturated fatty acids [SFAs], monounsaturated fatty acids, and polyunsaturated fatty acids), and risk of coronary heart disease (CHD). Specifically, the relevance of food sources of SFAs to CHD associations is uncertain. Methods and Results We conducted a case-cohort study involving 10 529 incident CHD cases and a random subcohort of 16 730 adults selected from a cohort of 385 747 participants in 9 countries of the EPIC (European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition) study. We estimated multivariable adjusted country-specific hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs per 5% of energy intake from dietary fatty acids, with and without isocaloric macronutrient substitutions, using Prentice-weighted Cox regression models and pooled results using random-effects meta-analysis. We found no evidence for associations of the consumption of total or fatty acid classes with CHD, regardless of macronutrient substitutions. In analyses considering food sources, CHD incidence was lower per 1% higher energy intake of SFAs from yogurt (HR, 0.93 [95% CI, 0.88-0.99]), cheese (HR, 0.98 [95% CI, 0.96-1.00]), and fish (HR, 0.87 [95% CI, 0.75-1.00]), but higher for SFAs from red meat (HR, 1.07 [95% CI, 1.02-1.12]) and butter (HR, 1.02 [95% CI, 1.00-1.04]). Conclusions This observational study found no strong associations of total fatty acids, SFAs, monounsaturated fatty acids, and polyunsaturated fatty acids, with incident CHD. By contrast, we found associations of SFAs with CHD in opposite directions dependent on the food source. These findings should be further confirmed, but support public health recommendations to consider food sources alongside the macronutrients they contain, and suggest the importance of the overall food matrix.

Ultra-processed food consumption patterns among older adults in the Netherlands and the role of the food environment.

PURPOSE: To describe the patterns of ultra-processed foods (UPFs) consumption in the Netherlands; to test if exposure to the food environment is associated with UPFs consumption; and if this association differed across educational levels and neighbourhood urbanisation. METHODS: Cross-sectional study using 2015-data of 8104 older adults from the Dutch EPIC cohort. Proportion of UPFs consumption was calculated from a validated food-frequency questionnaire. Exposure to the food environment was defined as proximity and availability of supermarkets, fast-food restaurants, full-service restaurants, convenience stores, candy stores and cafés. Consumption of UPFs was expressed as both percentage of total grams and total kilocalories. RESULTS: The study population was aged 70(± 10 SD) years and 80.5% was female. Average UPFs consumption was 17.8% of total food intake in grams and 37% of total energy intake. Those who consumed greater amounts of UPFs had a poorer overall diet quality. Adjusted linear regression models showed that closer proximity and larger availability to any type of food retailer was associated with lower UPFs consumption (both in grams and kilocalories). Somewhat stronger significant associations were found for proximity to restaurants (ß = - 1.6%, 95% confidence interval (CI) = - 2.6; - 0.6), and supermarkets (ß = - 2.2%, 95%CI = - 3.3; - 1.1); i.e., Individuals living within 500 m from the closest supermarket, as compared to 1500 m, had 2.6% less calories from UPFs. No differences were found on analyses stratified for urbanisation and education. CONCLUSIONS: Using various measures of exposure to the food environment, we found that exposure to restaurants and supermarkets was associated with somewhat lower consumption of UPFs.

Plant foods, dietary fibre and risk of ischaemic heart disease in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort.

BACKGROUND: Epidemiological evidence indicates that diets rich in plant foods are associated with a lower risk of ischaemic heart disease (IHD), but there is sparse information on fruit and vegetable subtypes and sources of dietary fibre. This study examined the associations of major plant foods, their subtypes and dietary fibre with risk of IHD in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC). METHODS: We conducted a prospective analysis of 490 311 men and women without a history of myocardial infarction or stroke at recruitment (12.6 years of follow-up, n cases = 8504), in 10 European countries. Dietary intake was assessed using validated questionnaires, calibrated with 24-h recalls. Multivariable Cox regressions were used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) of IHD. RESULTS: There was a lower risk of IHD with a higher intake of fruit and vegetables combined [HR per 200 g/day higher intake 0.94, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.90-0.99, P-trend = 0.009], and with total fruits (per 100 g/day 0.97, 0.95-1.00, P-trend = 0.021). There was no evidence for a reduced risk for fruit subtypes, except for bananas. Risk was lower with higher intakes of nuts and seeds (per 10 g/day 0.90, 0.82-0.98, P-trend = 0.020), total fibre (per 10 g/day 0.91, 0.85-0.98, P-trend = 0.015), fruit and vegetable fibre (per 4 g/day 0.95, 0.91-0.99, P-trend = 0.022) and fruit fibre (per 2 g/day 0.97, 0.95-1.00, P-trend = 0.045). No associations were observed between vegetables, vegetables subtypes, legumes, cereals and IHD risk. CONCLUSIONS: In this large prospective study, we found some small inverse associations between plant foods and IHD risk, with fruit and vegetables combined being the most strongly inversely associated with risk. Whether these small associations are causal remains unclear.

The association of the Mediterranean diet with heart failure risk in a Dutch population.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: It is still unclear whether a healthy diet can prevent heart failure (HF). Therefore, this study aimed to investigate the association between adherence to a Mediterranean-style diet, reflected by modified Mediterranean Diet Scores (mMDS), and the incidence of HF in men and women. METHODS AND RESULTS: This observational study comprised 9316 men and 27,645 women from the EPIC-NL cohort free from cardiovascular disease at baseline. Dietary intakes were assessed using a validated food frequency questionnaire. mMDS was calculated using a 9-point scale based on consumption of vegetables, legumes, fruit, nuts, seeds, grains, fish, fat ratio, dairy, meat and alcohol. HF events were ascertained by linkage to nation-wide registries. Multivariable Hazard Ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated by Cox proportional hazards regression models. Over a median follow-up of 15 years (IQR 14-16), 633 HF events occurred: 144 in men (1.5%) and 489 in women (1.8%). The median mMDS was 4 (IQR 3-5). There was significant effect modification by sex (P-value for interaction <0.001), therefore results are stratified for men and women. For men, a higher mMDS associated with lower HF risk (HR: 0.88; 95% CI: 0.79, 0.98 per point increase in mMDS; HR upper category: 0.53; 95% CI: 0.33, 0.86), whereas no association was found in women (HR: 0.98; 95% CI: 0.93, 1.04 per point increase; HR upper category: 1.07; 95% CI: 0.83, 1.36). CONCLUSION: Adherence to a Mediterranean-style diet may reduce HF risk, particularly in men. The underlying reasons for the differences in findings between men and women need further study.

The association between circulating 25-hydroxyvitamin D metabolites and type 2 diabetes in European populations: A meta-analysis and Mendelian randomisation analysis.

BACKGROUND: Prior research suggested a differential association of 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) metabolites with type 2 diabetes (T2D), with total 25(OH)D and 25(OH)D3 inversely associated with T2D, but the epimeric form (C3-epi-25(OH)D3) positively associated with T2D. Whether or not these observational associations are causal remains uncertain. We aimed to examine the potential causality of these associations using Mendelian randomisation (MR) analysis. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We performed a meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies for total 25(OH)D (N = 120,618), 25(OH)D3 (N = 40,562), and C3-epi-25(OH)D3 (N = 40,562) in participants of European descent (European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition [EPIC]-InterAct study, EPIC-Norfolk study, EPIC-CVD study, Ely study, and the SUNLIGHT consortium). We identified genetic variants for MR analysis to investigate the causal association of the 25(OH)D metabolites with T2D (including 80,983 T2D cases and 842,909 non-cases). We also estimated the observational association of 25(OH)D metabolites with T2D by performing random effects meta-analysis of results from previous studies and results from the EPIC-InterAct study. We identified 10 genetic loci associated with total 25(OH)D, 7 loci associated with 25(OH)D3 and 3 loci associated with C3-epi-25(OH)D3. Based on the meta-analysis of observational studies, each 1-standard deviation (SD) higher level of 25(OH)D was associated with a 20% lower risk of T2D (relative risk [RR]: 0.80; 95% CI 0.77, 0.84; p < 0.001), but a genetically predicted 1-SD increase in 25(OH)D was not significantly associated with T2D (odds ratio [OR]: 0.96; 95% CI 0.89, 1.03; p = 0.23); this result was consistent across sensitivity analyses. In EPIC-InterAct, 25(OH)D3 (per 1-SD) was associated with a lower risk of T2D (RR: 0.81; 95% CI 0.77, 0.86; p < 0.001), while C3-epi-25(OH)D3 (above versus below lower limit of quantification) was positively associated with T2D (RR: 1.12; 95% CI 1.03, 1.22; p = 0.006), but neither 25(OH)D3 (OR: 0.97; 95% CI 0.93, 1.01; p = 0.14) nor C3-epi-25(OH)D3 (OR: 0.98; 95% CI 0.93, 1.04; p = 0.53) was causally associated with T2D risk in the MR analysis. Main limitations include the lack of a non-linear MR analysis and of the generalisability of the current findings from European populations to other populations of different ethnicities. CONCLUSIONS: Our study found discordant associations of biochemically measured and genetically predicted differences in blood 25(OH)D with T2D risk. The findings based on MR analysis in a large sample of European ancestry do not support a causal association of total 25(OH)D or 25(OH)D metabolites with T2D and argue against the use of vitamin D supplementation for the prevention of T2D.

The effects of nudges on purchases, food choice, and energy intake or content of purchases in real-life food purchasing environments: a systematic review and evidence synthesis.

BACKGROUND: Adults with a low socioeconomic position (SEP) are more likely to engage in unhealthy diets as compared to adults with high SEP. However, individual-level educational interventions aiming to improve food choices have shown limited effectiveness in adults with low SEP. Environmental-level interventions such as nudging strategies however, may be more likely to benefit low SEP groups. We aimed to review the evidence for the effectiveness of nudges as classified according to interventions in proximal physical micro-environments typology (TIPPME) to promote healthy purchases, food choice, or affecting energy intake or content of purchases, within real-life food purchasing environments. Second, we aimed to investigate the potentially moderating role of SEP. METHODS: We systematically searched PubMed, EMBASE, and PsycINFO until 31 January 2018. Studies were considered eligible for inclusion when they i) complied with TIPPME intervention definitions; ii) studied actual purchases, food choice, or energy intake or content of purchases, iii) and were situated in real-life food purchasing environments. Risk of bias was assessed using a quality assessment tool and evidence was synthesized using harvest plots. RESULTS: From the 9210 references identified, 75 studies were included. Studies were generally of weak to moderate quality. The most frequently studied nudges were information (56%), mixed (24%), and position nudges (13%). Harvest plots showed modest tendencies towards beneficial effects on outcomes for information and position nudges. Less evidence was available for other TIPPME nudging interventions for which the harvest plots did not show compelling patterns. Only six studies evaluated the effects of nudges across levels of SEP (e.g., educational level, food security status, job type). Although there were some indications that nudges were more effective in low SEP groups, the limited amount of evidence and different proxies of SEP used warrant caution in the interpretation of findings. CONCLUSIONS: Information and position nudges may contribute to improving population dietary behaviours. Evidence investigating the moderating role of SEP was limited, although some studies reported greater effects in low SEP subgroups. We conclude that more high-quality studies obtaining detailed data on participant's SEP are needed. REGISTRATION: This systematic review is registered in the PROSPERO database ( CRD42018086983 ).

To what extent do dietary costs explain socio-economic differences in dietary behavior?

BACKGROUND: Low socio-economic position is associated with consumption of lower quality diets, which may be partly explained by the cost of healthier diets. Therefore, we aimed to investigate the mediating role of dietary costs in the association between educational level and diet quality. METHODS: We used cross-sectional data from Dutch older adults (N = 9399) in the EPIC-NL cohort. Participants provided information about their own and their partners' highest attained educational level (as proxy for socio-economic position). Dietary behavior was assessed using a food frequency questionnaire from which we derived two diet-quality scores, including the Dutch Healthy Diet index 2015 (DHD15-index) and the Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension (DASH) diet. Dietary cost estimates were based on food price data from food stores, and linked to reported consumption of food items. Multiple regression analyses and bootstrapping were used examine the mediating role of dietary cost in the association between educational level and diet quality. RESULTS: Mean age of participants was 70 (SD: 10) years and 77% were women. Dietary costs significantly mediated the association between educational level and diet quality, except for high versus middle individual educational level and the DHD15-index. Depending on the dietary and educational indicator, dietary costs explained between 2 and 7% of the association between educational level and diet quality. Furthermore, associations were found to be modified by sex and age. For the DHD15-index, mediation effects were only present in females and adults older than 65 years, and for the DASH diet mediation effects were only present in females and strongest amongst adults older than 65 years compared to adults younger than 65 years. CONCLUSION: Dietary costs seems to play a modest role in explaining educational differences in diet quality in an older Dutch population. Further research is needed to investigate which other factors may explain SEP differences in diet quality.

Glycemic index, glycemic load, and risk of coronary heart disease: a pan-European cohort study.

BACKGROUND: High carbohydrate intake raises blood triglycerides, glucose, and insulin; reduces HDLs; and may increase risk of coronary heart disease (CHD). Epidemiological studies indicate that high dietary glycemic index (GI) and glycemic load (GL) are associated with increased CHD risk. OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to determine whether dietary GI, GL, and available carbohydrates are associated with CHD risk in both sexes. METHODS: This large prospective study-the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition-consisted of 338,325 participants who completed a dietary questionnaire. HRs with 95% CIs for a CHD event, in relation to intake of GI, GL, and carbohydrates, were estimated using covariate-adjusted Cox proportional hazard models. RESULTS: After 12.8 y (median), 6378 participants had experienced a CHD event. High GL was associated with greater CHD risk [HR 1.16 (95% CI: 1.02, 1.31) highest vs. lowest quintile, p-trend 0.035; HR 1.18 (95% CI: 1.07, 1.29) per 50 g/day of GL intake]. The association between GL and CHD risk was evident in subjects with BMI (in kg/m2) ≥25 [HR: 1.22 (95% CI: 1.11, 1.35) per 50 g/d] but not in those with BMI <25 [HR: 1.09 (95% CI: 0.98, 1.22) per 50 g/d) (P-interaction = 0.022). The GL-CHD association did not differ between men [HR: 1.19 (95% CI: 1.08, 1.30) per 50 g/d] and women [HR: 1.22 (95% CI: 1.07, 1.40) per 50 g/d] (test for interaction not significant). GI was associated with CHD risk only in the continuous model [HR: 1.04 (95% CI: 1.00, 1.08) per 5 units/d]. High available carbohydrate was associated with greater CHD risk [HR: 1.11 (95% CI: 1.03, 1.18) per 50 g/d]. High sugar intake was associated with greater CHD risk [HR: 1.09 (95% CI: 1.02, 1.17) per 50 g/d]. CONCLUSIONS: This large pan-European study provides robust additional support for the hypothesis that a diet that induces a high glucose response is associated with greater CHD risk.

Association of plasma biomarkers of fruit and vegetable intake with incident type 2 diabetes: EPIC-InterAct case-cohort study in eight European countries.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the association of plasma vitamin C and carotenoids, as indicators of fruit and vegetable intake, with the risk of type 2 diabetes. DESIGN: Prospective case-cohort study. SETTING: Populations from eight European countries. PARTICIPANTS: 9754 participants with incident type 2 diabetes, and a subcohort of 13 662 individuals from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort of 340 234 participants: EPIC-InterAct case-cohort study. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Incident type 2 diabetes. RESULTS: In a multivariable adjusted model, higher plasma vitamin C was associated with a lower risk of developing type 2 diabetes (hazard ratio per standard deviation 0.82, 95% confidence interval 0.76 to 0.89). A similar inverse association was shown for total carotenoids (hazard ratio per standard deviation 0.75, 0.68 to 0.82). A composite biomarker score (split into five equal groups), comprising vitamin C and individual carotenoids, was inversely associated with type 2 diabetes with hazard ratios 0.77, 0.66, 0.59, and 0.50 for groups 2-5 compared with group 1 (the lowest group). Self-reported median fruit and vegetable intake was 274 g/day, 396 g/day, and 508 g/day for participants in categories defined by groups 1, 3, and 5 of the composite biomarker score, respectively. One standard deviation difference in the composite biomarker score, equivalent to a 66 (95% confidence interval 61 to 71) g/day difference in total fruit and vegetable intake, was associated with a hazard ratio of 0.75 (0.67 to 0.83). This would be equivalent to an absolute risk reduction of 0.95 per 1000 person years of follow up if achieved across an entire population with the characteristics of the eight European countries included in this analysis. CONCLUSIONS: These findings indicate an inverse association between plasma vitamin C, carotenoids, and their composite biomarker score, and incident type 2 diabetes in different European countries. These biomarkers are objective indicators of fruit and vegetable consumption, and suggest that diets rich in even modestly higher fruit and vegetable consumption could help to prevent development of type 2 diabetes.

Consumption of a diet high in dairy leads to higher 15:0 in cholesteryl esters of healthy people when compared to diets high in meat and grain.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: A higher dairy product intake has been associated to higher blood concentrations of 15:0 (pentadecanoic acid), 17:0 (margaric acid), and 14:0 (myristic acid). This study investigates whether a diet high in dairy products influences cholesteryl ester fatty acid concentrations of these specific fatty acids (FA). METHODS AND RESULTS: In a randomized multiple cross-over study, 13 men and 17 women aged 22 ± 4 years with a BMI of 21.6 ± 2.2 kg/m2 received 3 isocaloric intervention diets (dairy, meat or grain) in random order. For this post-hoc analysis, FA in plasma cholesteryl esters were measured using gas chromatography. We performed a linear mixed model per centered log-ratio transformed FA, adjusting for period, and the interaction between diet and period. Consumed total fat intake per controlled intervention diet was 31.0 ± 0.9 en%/day (dairy), 31.5 ± 0.6 en%/day (meat), and 28.4 ± 1.2 en%/day (grain), respectively. The dairy diet led to higher relative concentrations of 15:0 when compared to diets high in meat and grain, (ß; 0.27, 95%CI: 0.18,0.37; p = 1.2 × 10-5, and ß: 0.15; 95%CI: 0.06,0.24; p = 1.2 × 10-2, respectively). The dairy diet also led to higher 14:0 when compared to the meat diet (ß: 0.34; 95%CI: 0.21,0.46; p = 6.0 × 10-5), but not when compared to the grain diet. 17:0 did not differ between diets. CONCLUSION: The plasma cholesteryl ester fraction after a diet high in dairy was characterized by higher 15:0 levels. Concentrations of 14:0 were only higher when comparing the FA profile after a diet high in dairy when compared to a diet high in meat. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT01314040.

Pure Fruit Juice and Fruit Consumption Are Not Associated with Incidence of Type 2 Diabetes after Adjustment for Overall Dietary Quality in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition-Netherlands (EPIC-NL) Study.

BACKGROUND: Dietary guidelines on pure fruit juice consumption vary from country to country regarding the inclusion of pure fruit juice in the recommendations as an acceptable alternative for fruit. Current epidemiological evidence on the association between pure fruit juice consumption and diabetes risk is scarce. OBJECTIVE: We studied the association of both pure fruit juice and fruit consumption with diabetes risk and investigated the differences between low and high fruit consumers in the association of pure fruit juice consumption with diabetes risk. METHODS: This prospective cohort study included 36,147 participants in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition-Netherlands (EPIC-NL) Study aged 20-69 y at baseline. Fruit juice and fruit consumption were assessed using a validated food-frequency questionnaire; amounts of consumption were divided into 5 categories and quintiles, respectively. Incident type 2 diabetes cases were mainly self-reported and verified against medical records. Cox regression was used to estimate adjusted HRs and 95% CIs. RESULTS: After an average follow-up of 14.6 y, 1477 verified incident cases of type 2 diabetes were documented. Compared with no consumption, pure fruit juice consumption was not significantly associated with type 2 diabetes, with adjusted HRs ranging from 0.92 (95% CI: 0.79, 1.09) to 1.03 (95% CI: 0.83, 1.26). The associations did not differ between participants with low and high fruit consumption. None of the categories of fruit consumption were associated with type 2 diabetes (lowest quintile as reference). Adjusted HRs ranged between 0.93 (95% CI: 0.78, 1.10) and 1.00 (95% CI: 0.84, 1.19). Adjustment for the Dutch Healthy Diet Index, as an overall measure of dietary quality, strongly attenuated the observed associations of type 2 diabetes with both fruit juice and fruit consumption. CONCLUSIONS: We found no evidence for associations between pure fruit juice and fruit consumption and diabetes risk after adjustment for overall dietary quality for participants in the EPIC-NL study. This trial was registered at https://www.trialregister.nl/trial/6939 as NL6939.

Adherence to the Dutch dietary guidelines and 15-year incidence of heart failure in the EPIC-NL cohort.

PURPOSE: A healthy diet may contribute to the primary prevention of heart failure (HF), but evidence is still inconclusive. We aimed to study the association between adherence to the Dutch dietary guidelines and incidence of HF. METHODS: We studied 37,468 participants aged 20-70 years and free of HF at baseline from the EPIC-NL cohort. At baseline (1993-1997), data were collected on demographics, lifestyle, and presence of chronic diseases. Dietary intake was assessed using a 178-item validated food frequency questionnaire. Dietary intake data were used to calculate scores on the Dutch Healthy Diet 2015 Index (DHD15-index) measuring adherence to the Dutch dietary guidelines. The DHD15-index is based on the average daily intake of 14 food groups resulting in a total score ranging between 0 and 140, with higher scores indicating better adherence. HF morbidity and mortality during follow-up were ascertained through linkage with national registries. Cox proportional hazards analysis was used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) for the association between DHD15 adherence and HF risk, adjusting for sociodemographic and lifestyle characteristics. RESULTS: The average score on the DHD15-index was 71 (SD = 15). During a median follow-up of 15.2 years (IQR 14.1-16.5), 674 HF events occurred. After adjustment for demographic and lifestyle characteristics, higher scores on the DHD15-index were associated with lower risk of HF (HRQ4vsQ1 0.73; 95% CI 0.58-0.93; Ptrend 0.001). CONCLUSION: In a large Dutch population of middle-aged adults, higher adherence to the Dutch dietary guidelines was associated with lower risk of HF.

Circulating phylloquinone, inactive Matrix Gla protein and coronary heart disease risk: A two-sample Mendelian Randomization study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Multiple observational studies and small-scale intervention studies suggest that high vitamin K intake is associated with improved markers for cardiovascular health. Circulating phylloquinone solely represents phylloquinone (vitamin K1) intake, while dephosphorylated uncarboxylated Matrix Gla Protein (dp-ucMGP) represents both phylloquinone and menaquinone (vitamin K2) intake. This study aims to investigate the causal relationship between genetically predicted vitamin K concentrations and the risk of CHD via a two-sample Mendelian Randomization approach. DESIGN: We used data from three studies: the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-CVD case-cohort study, CARDIOGRAMplusC4D and the UK Biobank, resulting in 103,097 CHD cases. Genetically predicted vitamin K concentrations were measured using SNPs related to circulating phylloquinone and dp-ucMGP. We calculated a genetic risk score (GRS) including four SNPs (rs2108622, rs2192574, rs4645543 and rs6862071) related to circulating phylloquinone levels from a genome wide association study. Rs4236 was used as an instrumental variable for dp-ucMGP. Inverse-variance weighted (IVW) analysis was used to obtain Risk Ratios (RRs) for the causal relationship between phylloquinone and dp-ucMGP concentrations and CHD risk. RESULTS: Using the genetic score for circulating phylloquinone, we found that circulating phylloquinone was not causally related to CHD risk (RR 1.00 (95%-CI: 0.98; 1.04)). Lower genetically predicted dp-ucMGP concentration was associated with a lower CHD risk with a RR of 0.96 (95%-CI: 0.93; 0.99) for every 10 µg/L decrease in dp-ucMGP. CONCLUSIONS: This study did not confirm a causal relationship between circulating phylloquinone and lower CHD risk. However, lower dp-ucMGP levels may be causally related with a decreased CHD risk. This inconsistent result may reflect the influence of menaquinones in the association with CHD.

Estimated Substitution of Tea or Coffee for Sugar-Sweetened Beverages Was Associated with Lower Type 2 Diabetes Incidence in Case-Cohort Analysis across 8 European Countries in the EPIC-InterAct Study.

INTRODUCTION: Beverage consumption is a modifiable risk factor for type 2 diabetes (T2D), but there is insufficient evidence to inform the suitability of substituting 1 type of beverage for another. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to estimate the risk of T2D when consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) was replaced with consumption of fruit juice, milk, coffee, or tea. METHODS: In the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-InterAct case-cohort study of 8 European countries (n = 27,662, with 12,333 cases of incident T2D, 1992-2007), beverage consumption was estimated at baseline by dietary questionnaires. Using Prentice-weighted Cox regression adjusting for other beverages and potential confounders, we estimated associations of substituting 1 type of beverage for another on incident T2D. RESULTS: Mean ± SD of estimated consumption of SSB was 55 ± 105 g/d. Means ± SDs for the other beverages were as follows: fruit juice, 59 ± 101 g/d; milk, 209 ± 203 g/d; coffee, 381 ± 372 g/d; and tea, 152 ± 282 g/d. Substituting coffee for SSBs by 250 g/d was associated with a 21% lower incidence of T2D (95% CI: 12%, 29%). The rate difference was -12.0 (95% CI: -20.0, -5.0) per 10,000 person-years among adults consuming SSBs ≥250 g/d (absolute rate = 48.3/10,000). Substituting tea for SSBs was estimated to lower T2D incidence by 22% (95% CI: 15%, 28%) or -11.0 (95% CI: -20.0, -2.6) per 10,000 person-years, whereas substituting fruit juice or milk was estimated not to alter T2D risk significantly. CONCLUSIONS: These findings indicate a potential benefit of substituting coffee or tea for SSBs for the primary prevention of T2D and may help formulate public health recommendations on beverage consumption in different populations.

Are our diets getting healthier and more sustainable? Insights from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition - Netherlands (EPIC-NL) cohort.

OBJECTIVE: To identify differences in dietary quality, dietary greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and food consumption over 20 years in a Dutch cohort. DESIGN: Participants (n 8932) filled out an FFQ in 1993-1997 and in 2015. The Dutch Healthy Diet index 2015 (DHD15-index) score, GHG emissions and consumption of food groups (g/4184 kJ (1000 kcal)) were compared between the time points with paired t tests. SETTING: The Netherlands. PARTICIPANTS: European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition - Netherlands (EPIC-NL) cohort, aged 18-65 years at baseline. RESULTS: Total energy intake decreased by -678 (95 % CI -4908, 3377) kJ/d (-162 (95 % CI -1173, 807) kcal/d) for men and -372 (95 % CI -3820, 3130) kJ/d (-89 (95 % CI -913, 748) kcal/d) for women. DHD15-index scores increased by 11 % (from 64·8 to 71·9 points) and 13 % (from 65·2 to 73·6 points) in men and women, respectively (P < 0·0001), mainly due to an increased (shell)fish and nuts/seeds/nut paste consumption. After energy intake adjustment, dietary-related GHG emissions increased by 5 % in men (2·48-2·61 kg CO2-eq/4184 kJ (1000 kcal), P < 0·0001) and were similar in women (0·4 %, 2·70-2·71 kg CO2-eq/4184 kJ (1000 kcal), P = 0·3930) due to the increased consumption of (shell)fish, nuts/seeds/nut paste, poultry and higher GHG-intensive red meats such as beef. CONCLUSIONS: This Dutch cohort analyses showed more healthy diets without mitigated GHG emissions over a 20-year period, at similar energy intakes. Higher consumption of (shell)fish and poultry was not yet at the expense of red and processed meat. Lower consumption of animal-based foods is needed to achieve healthier as well as environmentally friendly diets.

Risk for Heart Failure: The Opportunity for Prevention With the American Heart Association's Life's Simple 7.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study is to determine whether combinations of specific Life's Simple 7 (LS7) components are associated with reduced risk for heart failure (HF). BACKGROUND: The American Heart Association recommends the concept of LS7: healthy behaviors that have been shown to reduce cardiovascular disease. METHODS: A total of 37,803 participants from the EPIC-NL (European Prospective Investigation Into Cancer and Nutrition-Netherlands) cohort were included (mean age: 49.4 ± 11.9 years, 74.7% women). The LS7 score ranged from 0 to 14 and was calculated by assigning 0, 1, or 2 points for smoking, physical activity, body mass index, diet, blood pressure, total cholesterol, and blood glucose. An overall ideal score (11 to 14 points) was present in 23.2% of participants, an intermediate score (9 or 10 points) in 35.3%, and an inadequate score (0 to 8 points) in 41.5%. RESULTS: Over a median follow-up period of 15.2 years (interquartile range: 14.1 to 16.5 years), 690 participants (1.8%) developed HF. In Cox proportional hazards models, ideal and intermediate LS7 scores were associated with reduced risk for HF compared with the inadequate category (hazard ratio: 0.45 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.34 to 0.60] and hazard ratio: 0.53 [95% CI: 0.44 to 0.64], respectively). Our analyses show that combinations with specific LS7 components, notably glucose, body mass index, smoking, and blood pressure, are associated with a lower incidence of HF. CONCLUSIONS: A healthy lifestyle, as reflected in an ideal LS7 score, was associated with a 55% lower risk for HF compared with an inadequate LS7 score. Preventive strategies that target combinations of specific LS7 components could have a significant impact on decreasing incident HF in the population at large.

Generalizability of a Diabetes-Associated Country-Specific Exploratory Dietary Pattern Is Feasible Across European Populations.

BACKGROUND: Population-specificity of exploratory dietary patterns limits their generalizability in investigations with type 2 diabetes incidence. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to derive country-specific exploratory dietary patterns, investigate their association with type 2 diabetes incidence, and replicate diabetes-associated dietary patterns in other countries. METHODS: Dietary intake data were used, assessed by country-specific questionnaires at baseline of 11,183 incident diabetes cases and 14,694 subcohort members (mean age 52.9 y) from 8 countries, nested within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition study (mean follow-up time 6.9 y). Exploratory dietary patterns were derived by principal component analysis. HRs for incident type 2 diabetes were calculated by Prentice-weighted Cox proportional hazard regression models. Diabetes-associated dietary patterns were simplified or replicated to be applicable in other countries. A meta-analysis across all countries evaluated the generalizability of the diabetes-association. RESULTS: Two dietary patterns per country/UK-center, of which overall 3 dietary patterns were diabetes-associated, were identified. A risk-lowering French dietary pattern was not confirmed across other countries: pooled HRFrance per 1 SD: 1.00; 95% CI: 0.90, 1.10. Risk-increasing dietary patterns, derived in Spain and UK-Norfolk, were confirmed, but only the latter statistically significantly: HRSpain: 1.09; 95% CI: 0.97, 1.22 and HRUK-Norfolk: 1.12; 95% CI: 1.04, 1.20. Respectively, this dietary pattern was characterized by relatively high intakes of potatoes, processed meat, vegetable oils, sugar, cake and cookies, and tea. CONCLUSIONS: Only few country/center-specific dietary patterns (3 of 18) were statistically significantly associated with diabetes incidence in this multicountry European study population. One pattern, whose association with diabetes was confirmed across other countries, showed overlaps in the food groups potatoes and processed meat with identified diabetes-associated dietary patterns from other studies. The study demonstrates that replication of associations of exploratory patterns with health outcomes is feasible and a necessary step to overcome population-specificity in associations from such analyses.

Consumption of Meat, Fish, Dairy Products, and Eggs and Risk of Ischemic Heart Disease.

BACKGROUND: There is uncertainty about the relevance of animal foods to the pathogenesis of ischemic heart disease (IHD). We examined meat, fish, dairy products, and eggs and risk for IHD in the pan-European EPIC cohort (European Prospective Investigation Into Cancer and Nutrition). METHODS: In this prospective study of 409 885 men and women in 9 European countries, diet was assessed with validated questionnaires and calibrated with 24-hour recalls. Lipids and blood pressure were measured in a subsample. During a mean of 12.6 years of follow-up, 7198 participants had a myocardial infarction or died of IHD. The relationships of animal foods with risk were examined with Cox regression with adjustment for other animal foods and relevant covariates. RESULTS: The hazard ratio (HR) for IHD was 1.19 (95% CI, 1.06-1.33) for a 100-g/d increment in intake of red and processed meat, and this remained significant after exclusion of the first 4 years of follow-up (HR, 1.25 [95% CI, 1.09-1.42]). Risk was inversely associated with intakes of yogurt (HR, 0.93 [95% CI, 0.89-0.98] per 100-g/d increment), cheese (HR, 0.92 [95% CI, 0.86-0.98] per 30-g/d increment), and eggs (HR, 0.93 [95% CI, 0.88-0.99] per 20-g/d increment); the associations with yogurt and eggs were attenuated and nonsignificant after exclusion of the first 4 years of follow-up. Risk was not significantly associated with intakes of poultry, fish, or milk. In analyses modeling dietary substitutions, replacement of 100 kcal/d from red and processed meat with 100 kcal/d from fatty fish, yogurt, cheese, or eggs was associated with ≈20% lower risk of IHD. Consumption of red and processed meat was positively associated with serum non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol concentration and systolic blood pressure, and consumption of cheese was inversely associated with serum non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol. CONCLUSIONS: Risk for IHD was positively associated with consumption of red and processed meat and inversely associated with consumption of yogurt, cheese, and eggs, although the associations with yogurt and eggs may be influenced by reverse causation bias. It is not clear whether the associations with red and processed meat and cheese reflect causality, but they were consistent with the associations of these foods with plasma non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and for red and processed meat with systolic blood pressure, which could mediate such effects.

Substitutions between dairy products and risk of stroke: results from the European Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition-Netherlands (EPIC-NL) cohort.

The association between intake of different dairy products and the risk of stroke remains unclear. We therefore investigated substitutions between dairy product subgroups and risk of stroke. We included 36 886 Dutch men and women. Information about dairy product intake was collected through a FFQ. Dairy products were grouped as low-fat milk, whole-fat milk, buttermilk, low-fat yogurt, whole-fat yogurt, cheese and butter. Incident stroke cases were identified in national registers. We used Cox proportional hazards regression to calculate associations for substitutions between dairy products with the rate of stroke. During a median follow-up of 15·2 years we identified 884 stroke cases (503 ischaemic and 244 haemorrhagic). Median intake of total dairy products was four servings/d. Low-fat yogurt substituted for whole-fat yogurt was associated with a higher rate of ischaemic stroke (hazard ratio (HR) = 2·58 (95 % CI 1·11, 5·97)/serving per d). Whole-fat yogurt as a substitution for any other subgroup was associated with a lower rate of ischaemic stroke (HR between 0·33 and 0·36/serving per d). We did not observe any associations for haemorrhagic stroke. In conclusion, whole-fat yogurt as a substitution for low-fat yogurt, cheese, butter, buttermilk or milk, regardless of fat content, was associated with a lower rate of ischaemic stroke.