The gathering firestorm in southern Amazonia.

Wildfires, exacerbated by extreme weather events and land use, threaten to change the Amazon from a net carbon sink to a net carbon source. Here, we develop and apply a coupled ecosystem-fire model to quantify how greenhouse gas-driven drying and warming would affect wildfires and associated CO2 emissions in the southern Brazilian Amazon. Regional climate projections suggest that Amazon fire regimes will intensify under both low- and high-emission scenarios. Our results indicate that projected climatic changes will double the area burned by wildfires, affecting up to 16% of the region's forests by 2050. Although these fires could emit as much as 17.0 Pg of CO2 equivalent to the atmosphere, avoiding new deforestation could cut total net fire emissions in half and help prevent fires from escaping into protected areas and indigenous lands. Aggressive efforts to eliminate ignition sources and suppress wildfires will be critical to conserve southern Amazon forests.

Offsetting the impacts of mining to achieve no net loss of native vegetation.

Offsets are a novel conservation tool, yet using them to achieve no net loss of biodiversity is challenging. This is especially true when using conservation offsets (i.e., protected areas) because achieving no net loss requires avoiding equivalent loss. Our objective was to determine if offsetting the impacts of mining achieves no net loss of native vegetation in Brazil's largest iron mining region. We used a land-use change model to simulate deforestation by mining to 2020; developed a model to allocate conservation offsets to the landscape under 3 scenarios (baseline, no new offsets; current practice, like-for-like [by vegetation type] conservation offsetting near the impact site; and threat scenario, like-for-like conservation offsetting of highly threatened vegetation); and simulated nonmining deforestation to 2020 for each scenario to quantify avoided deforestation achieved with offsets. Mines cleared 3570 ha of native vegetation by 2020. Under a 1:4 offset ratio, mining companies would be required to conserve >14,200 ha of native vegetation, doubling the current extent of protected areas in the region. Allocating offsets under current practice avoided deforestation equivalent to 3% of that caused by mining, whereas allocating under the threat scenario avoided 9%. Current practice failed to achieve no net loss because offsets did not conserve threatened vegetation. Explicit allocation of offsets to threatened vegetation also failed because the most threatened vegetation was widely dispersed across the landscape, making conservation logistically difficult. To achieve no net loss with conservation offsets requires information on regional deforestation trajectories and the distribution of threatened vegetation. However, in some regions achieving no net loss through conservation may be impossible. In these cases, other offsetting activities, such as revegetation, will be required.

Additive host genetic factors influence fecal egg excretion rates during Schistosoma mansoni infection in a rural area in Brazil.

This study quantifies the influence of shared household and kinship on egg counts during Schistosoma mansoni infection in a sample from rural Brazil. Detailed genealogic information allowed assignment of 597 individuals to 6 multihousehold pedigrees residing in 145 households. A variance component method was used to partition egg counts into shared household, additive genetic, and individual-specific environmental effects. Host additive genetic effects consistently accounted for a large proportion of the variation in egg counts: 43% in an unadjusted model and 40% in model adjusted for covariates. In a model that examined the confounding of shared household with kinship, additive genetic effects still accounted for 27% of the variation in egg counts and shared household only 12%. The consistently important role for host additive genetic factors on the variation in egg counts points to new ways of modeling and understanding the mechanisms that contribute to trait variation during infection with S. mansoni.

The distribution of Biomphalaria spp. in different habitats in relation to physical, biological, water contact and cognitive factors in a rural area in Minas Gerais, Brazil.

A total of 256 sites in 11 habitats were surveyed for Biomphalaria in Melquiades rural area (State of Minas Gerais) in August and November 1999 and in March 2000. Of the 1,780 Biomphalaria collected, 1,721 (96.7%) were B. glabrata and 59 (3.3%) B. straminea. Snails were found in all habitats except in wells, with the largest mean numbers in tanks, seepage ponds and canals, and the smallest numbers in springs, rice fields and fishponds. People's knowledge of the occurrence of Biomphalaria at the collection sites and the presence of Biomphalaria ova were strongly correlated with the occurrence of snails, and distance between houses and collection sites, as well as water velocity were inversely correlated with Biomphalaria occurrence (p < 0.001). The strongest predictor o f Biomphalaria occurrence was the presence of tilapia fish in fishponds. Fourteen Biomphalaria (0.8% of all snails) found at 6 sites were infected with Schistosoma mansoni. Suggestions are made for the utilization of local people's knowledge in snail surveys and further studies are recommended on the possible use of tilapia for biological control of Biomphalaria in fishponds, as well as modeling of S. mansoni transmission and reinfection.