The public-private decision for alcohol retail systems: Examining the economic, health, and social impacts of alternative systems in Finland.

Background: Organising alcohol retail systems with more or less public ownership has implications for health and the economy. The aim of the present study was to estimate the economic, health, and social impacts of alcohol use in Finland in 2018 (baseline), and in two alternative scenarios in which current partial public ownership of alcohol retail sales is either increased or fully privatised. Methods: Baseline alcohol-attributable harms and costs were estimated across five categories of death, disability, and criminal justice. Two alternate alcohol retail systems were defined as privately owned stores selling: (1) only low strength alcoholic beverages (public ownership scenario, similar to Sweden); or (2) all beverages (private ownership scenario). Policy analyses were conducted to estimate changes in alcohol use per capita. Health and economic impacts were modelled using administrative data and epidemiological modelling. Results: In Finland in 2018, alcohol use was estimated to be responsible for €1.51 billion (95% Uncertainty Estimates: €1.43 billion, €1.58 billion) in social cost, 3,846 deaths, and 270,652 criminal justice events. In the public ownership scenario, it was estimated that alcohol use would decline by 15.8% (11.8%, 19.7%) and social cost by €384.3 million (€189.5 million, €559.2 million). Full privatisation was associated with an increase in alcohol use of 9.0% (6.2%, 11.8%) and an increase in social cost of €289.7 million (€140.8 million, €439.5 million). Conclusion: The outcome from applying a novel analytical approach suggests that more public ownership of the alcohol retail system may lead to significant decreases in alcohol-caused death, disability, crime, and social costs. Conversely, full privatisation of the ownership model would lead to increased harm and costs.

Estimation of the population size of gay, bisexual and other men who have sex with men in Canada, 2020.

Background: Gay or bisexual (GB) and other men who have sex with men (MSM) are disproportionately affected by human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) globally and domestically in Canada. Reliable and recent population size estimates are necessary to allocate resources to meet prevention needs and for modelling the HIV epidemic. However, previous direct estimates did not account for GB men who would not reveal their sexual identity to a government survey, nor MSM not identifying as GB. The objective of this study was to develop two national population size estimates of gay, bisexual and other men who have sex with men (gbMSM) in 2020. First, GB men based on identity, regardless of sexual experience, and MSM who do not identify as GB but reported anal sex with a man in the past 1-5 years ("Identity-or-Behaviour" estimate). Second, an estimate of gbMSM who reported past 6-12 months anal sex with a man ("Behaviour-only" estimate). Methods: Estimates for males aged 15 years and older were drawn from Statistics Canada's population size estimates, the Canadian Community Health Survey and the Community-Based Research Centre's Sex Now Survey. Estimated proportions of GB identity, those not likely to disclose GB identity and MSM who do not identify as GB but who reported past 1-5 years anal sex were applied. Past 6-12 months anal sex history was subsequently used to limit estimates to those sexually active anally. Results: It was estimated that 3.5% of the male population in Canada aged 15 years and older identified as GB. Of GB males, 86.5% were likely to disclose their sexual identity to a government survey. A further 0.1% of non-GB identified males reported past year anal sex with a man. The national Identity-or-Behaviour gbMSM population size in 2020 was estimated at 669,613 people, equivalent to 4.3% of the Canadian male population aged 15 years and older. The estimate of Behaviour-only gbMSM was 412,186, representing 2.6% of the Canadian male population aged 15 years and older. Conclusion: Using data from multiple sources, a model applied to estimate the population size of gbMSM, accounting for populations previously not included in prior estimates, has been described.

Attributable fractions for substance use in relation to crime.

AIMS: Building upon an existing methodology and conceptual framework for estimating the association between the use of substances and crime, we calculated attributable fractions that estimate the proportion of crimes explained by alcohol and six other categories of psychoactive substances. DESIGN: Cross-sectional surveys. SETTING: Canadian federal correctional institutions. PARTICIPANTS: Canadian men (n = 27 803) and women (n = 1335) offenders who began serving a custodial sentence in a Canadian federal correctional institution between 2006 and 2016. MEASUREMENTS: Offenders completed the computerized assessment of substance abuse, a self-report tool designed to assess (1) whether the offence for which they were convicted would have occurred had they not been intoxicated from alcohol or another substance, (2) whether they committed the offence to support their alcohol or other substance use and (3) whether they were dependent on alcohol (alcohol dependence scale) or another substance (drug abuse screening test). Offences were grouped into four mutually exclusive categories: violent crimes, non-violent crimes, impaired driving and substance-defined crimes. This study focused on violent and non-violent crime categories. Substances assessed were: alcohol, cannabis, opioids, other central nervous system (CNS) depressants, cocaine, other CNS stimulants and other substances. FINDINGS: According to offender self-report, 42% of all violent and non-violent crime would probably not have occurred if the perpetrator had not been under the influence of, or seeking, alcohol or other substances. Between 2006 and 2016, 20% of violent crimes and 7% of non-violent crimes in Canada were considered attributable to alcohol. In contrast, all other psychoactive substance categories combined were associated with 26% of all violent crime and 25% of non-violent crime during the same time-frame. CONCLUSIONS: Attributable fraction analyses show that more than 42% of Canadian crime resulting in a custodial sentence between 2006 and 2016 would probably not have occurred if the perpetrator had not been under the influence of or seeking alcohol or other drugs. Attributable fractions for alcohol and substance-related crime are a potentially useful resource for estimating the impact of alcohol and other substances on crime.

Democratizing Access to Community-Based Survey Findings Through Dynamic Data Visualizations.

OurStats ( https://www.cbrc.net/ourstats ) is a data visualization dashboard developed by the Community-Based Research Centre (CBRC) to increase access to data from the Sex Now surveys-Canada's largest community-based surveillance study of gay and bisexual men. An evaluation of the OurStats dashboard was conducted using an online survey distributed through the CBRC and Advance Alliance-an alliance of Canada's leading HIV and queer men's health organizations. Since being launched in November 2019 (through December 2019), 350 unique visitors used the OurStats Dashboard (5.8 per day). Based on responses from 10 community partners, all respondents said they would probably/definitely use OurStats again and would probably/definitely recommend it to colleagues; nine felt it was much/somewhat better than traditional academic outputs (e.g., poster presentations, journal articles); and seven felt it was much/somewhat better than traditional knowledge translation outputs (e.g., fliers, posters, and social media posts). Respondents said they would use OurStats to identify needs of gay and bisexual men (n = 9), prepare grant/funding applications (n = 9), prepare presentations about Sex Now data (n = 7), and evaluate the impact of local programs (n = 4). Overall, half felt that OurStats was somewhat/extremely easy to use and half felt that it was somewhat difficult to use. The most commonly identified requested improvement was to provide help documentation that explained how each of the display settings changed the visualizations. From these findings, we conclude that dynamic visualizations for community-based survey data are highly feasible and acceptable, provided appropriate support is available to help community partners use these tools.

Event-level outcomes of police interactions with young people in three non-metropolitan cities across British Columbia, Canada.

This study examines encounters between youth and police to identify individual, contextual, and social factors that predict the outcome of these encounters. Young people aged 16-30 years were surveyed between May 2017 and June 2018 in three non-metropolitan cities across British Columbia, Canada. Outcomes were analysed using multinomial logistic generalized estimating equations. A total of 675 encounters were reported by 360 participants. These outcomes resulted in participants being questioned (n = 227; 33.6%); given warnings (n = 132; 19.6%); being searched (n = 104; 15.4%); being given a ticket (n = 101; 15.0%); and being handcuffed or arrested (n = 111; 16.4%). Young Indigenous people (vs. white) were significantly more likely to be handcuffed or arrested (OR=3.26; 1.43, 7.43). Statistical significance held after adjusting for history of police encounters and contextual factors. Findings suggest that police discretion, which has the potential to benefit youth, may be undermined by discriminatory applications of discretion.

The Potential Health Impact of an Alcohol Minimum Unit Price in Québec: An Application of the International Model of Alcohol Harms and Policies.

OBJECTIVE: Alcohol minimum unit pricing is a strategy capable of reducing alcohol-related harm from cheap alcoholic beverages. We used the International Model of Alcohol Harms and Policies (InterMAHP), an open-access alcohol harms estimator and policy scenario modeler, to estimate the potential health benefits of introducing minimum unit pricing in Québec, Canada. METHOD: Aggregated mortality and hospitalization data were obtained from official administrative sources. Alcohol sales and pricing data were obtained from the partial government retail monopoly and Nielsen. Exposure data were from the Canadian Substance Use Exposure Database. Average price changes under two minimum-unit-pricing scenarios were estimated by applying a product-level pricing analysis. The online InterMAHP tool was used to automate the estimation of observed alcohol-attributable harm and what was projected in each policy scenario. RESULTS: Alcohol was estimated to cause 2,850 deaths and 24,694 hospitalizations in Québec in 2014. Introducing minimum unit pricing of CAD$1.50 was estimated to reduce consumption by 4.4%, alcohol-attributable deaths by 5.9% (95% CI [0.2%, 11.7%]), and alcohol-attributable hospital stays by 8.4% (95% CI [3.2%, 13.7%]). Higher minimum unit pricing of CAD$1.75 was estimated to reduce alcohol-attributable deaths by 11.5% (95% CI [5.9%, 17.2%]) and alcohol-attributable hospital stays by 16.3% (95% CI [11.2%, 21.4%]). CONCLUSIONS: The results of this policy modeling study suggest that the introduction of minimum unit pricing between CAD$1.50 and $1.75 would substantially reduce the alcohol-caused burden of disease in Québec. The quantification of alcohol-caused death and disability, and the changes in these measures under two scenarios, was significantly automated by the open-access resource, InterMAHP.

How many alcohol-attributable deaths and hospital admissions could be prevented by alternative pricing and taxation policies? Modelling impacts on alcohol consumption, revenues and related harms in Canada. / Réduction des décès et des hospitalisations dus à l'alcool grâce à des politiques fiscales et d'établissement des prix différentes? Modélisation des effets sur la consommation d'alcool, les revenus et les méfaits liés à l'alcool au Canada.

INTRODUCTION: In 2017, Canada increased alcohol excise taxes for the first time in over three decades. In this article, we describe a model to estimate various effects of additional tax and price policies that are predicted to improve health outcomes. METHODS: We obtained alcohol sales and taxation data for 2016/17 for all Canadian jurisdictions from Statistics Canada and product-level sales data for British Columbia. We modelled effects of alternative price and tax policies - revenue-neutral taxes, inflation-adjusted taxes and minimum unit prices (MUPs) - on consumption, revenues and harms. We used published price elasticities to estimate impacts on consumption and revenue and the International Model for Alcohol Harms and Policies (InterMAHP) to estimate impacts on alcohol-attributable mortality and morbidity. RESULTS: Other things being equal, revenue-neutral alcohol volumetric taxes (AVT) would have minimal influence on overall alcohol consumption and related harms. Inflation-adjusted AVT would result in 3.83% less consumption, 329 fewer deaths and 3762 fewer hospital admissions. A MUP of $1.75 per standard drink (equal to 17.05mL ethanol) would have reduced consumption by 8.68% in 2016, which in turn would have reduced the number of deaths by 732 and the number of hospitalizations by 8329 that year. Indexing alcohol excise taxes between 1991/92 and 2016/17 would have resulted in the federal government gaining approximately $10.97 billion. We estimated this could have prevented 4000-5400 deaths and 43 000-56 000 hospitalizations. CONCLUSION: Improved public health outcomes would be made possible by (1) increasing alcohol excise tax rates across all beverages to compensate for past failures to index rates, and (2) setting a MUP of at least $1.75 per standard drink. While reducing alcohol-caused harms, these tax policies would have the added benefit of increasing federal government revenues.

Substance use patterns and awareness of biomedical HIV prevention strategies among sexual and gender minority men in Canada.

Sexual and gender minority men (SGMM) who use drugs are frequently cited as at-risk for HIV. Fortunately, biomedical prevention can greatly reduce transmission, provided individuals are aware of and interested in the uptake of these strategies. We examined associations between substance use patterns and biomedical prevention among SGMM in Canada. Latent class analysis identified patterns of substance use. Demographic-adjusted logistic regression models assessed the associations between latent classes and key biomedical prevention indicators. Among 669 participants living with HIV (PLWH) and 7,184 HIV-negative participants, six substance use classes characterized "limited" (46.0%; infrequent/low use of drugs), "common" (31.9%; alcohol, cannabis, and tobacco), "club" (5.2%; alcohol, cocaine, and psychedelics), "sex" (4.8%; alcohol, crystal methamphetamine, GHB, poppers, and erectile drugs), "prescription" (11.0%; alcohol and prescription drugs), and "polydrug" (1.1%; most drugs) use. HIV-negative men in the "prescription" and "sex" substance use classes were more likely to know about the preventive benefits of HIV treatment. All non-"limited use" HIV-negative men were more likely to report interest in taking pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP). For PLWH, substance use patterns were not associated with detectable viral loads or treatment awareness. While PLWH exhibited high levels of undetectability and treatment awareness regardless of substance use class, a variety of substance use patterns were associated with increased awareness, interest, and uptake of risk management strategies among HIV-negative participants.

Estimation of the impacts of substance use on workplace productivity: a hybrid human capital and prevalence-based approach applied to Canada.

OBJECTIVE: Policy makers require evidence-based estimates of the economic costs of substance use-attributable lost productivity to set strategies aimed at reducing substance use-related harms. Building on a study by Rehm et al. (2006), we provide estimates of workplace costs using updated methods and data sources. METHODS: We estimated substance use-attributable productivity losses due to premature mortality, long-term disability, and presenteeism/absenteeism in Canada between 2007 and 2014. Lost productivity was estimated using a hybrid prevalence and incidence approach. Substance use prevalence data were drawn from three national self-report surveys. Premature mortality data were from the Canadian Vital Statistics Death Database, and long-term disability and workplace interference data were from the Canadian Community Health Survey. RESULTS: In 2014, the total cost of lost productivity due to substance use was $15.7 billion, or approximately $440 per Canadian, an increase of 8% from 2007. Substances responsible for the greatest economic costs were alcohol (38% of per capita costs), tobacco (37%), opioids (12%), other central nervous system (CNS) depressants (4%), other CNS stimulants (3%), cannabis (2%), cocaine (2%), and finally other psychoactive substances (2%). CONCLUSION: In 2014, alcohol and tobacco represent three quarters of substance use-related lost productivity costs in Canada, followed by opioids. These costs provide a valuable baseline that can be used to assess the impact of future substance use policy, practice, and other interventions, especially important given Canada's opioid crisis and recent cannabis legalization.

Does size really matter? A sensitivity analysis of number of seeds in a respondent-driven sampling study of gay, bisexual and other men who have sex with men in Vancouver, Canada.

BACKGROUND: Respondent-driven sampling (RDS) is an increasingly used peer chain-recruitment method to sample "hard-to-reach" populations for whom there are no reliable sampling frames. Implementation success of RDS varies; one potential negative factor being the number of seeds used. METHODS: We conducted a sensitivity analysis on estimates produced using data from an RDS study of gay, bisexual and other men who have sex with men (GBMSM) aged ≥16 years living in Vancouver, Canada. Participants completed a questionnaire on demographics, sexual behavior and substance use. For analysis, we used increasing seed exclusion criteria, starting with all participants and subsequently removing unproductive seeds, chains of ≤1 recruitment waves, and chains of ≤2 recruitment waves. We calculated estimates for three different outcomes (HIV serostatus, condomless anal intercourse with HIV discordant/unknown status partner, and injecting drugs) using three different RDS weighting procedures: RDS-I, RDS-II, and RDS-SS. We also assessed seed dependence with bottleneck analyses and convergence plots. Statistical differences between RDS estimators were assessed through simulation analysis. RESULTS: Overall, 719 participants were recruited, which included 119 seeds and a maximum of 16 recruitment waves (mean chain length = 1.7). The sample of >0 recruitment waves removed unproductive seeds (n = 50/119, 42.0%), resulting in 69 chains (mean length = 3.0). The sample of >1 recruitment waves removed 125 seeds or recruits (17.4% of overall sample), resulting in 37 chains (mean length = 4.8). The final sample of >2 recruitment waves removed a further 182 seeds or recruits (25.3% of overall sample), resulting in 25 chains (mean length = 6.1). Convergence plots and bottleneck analyses of condomless anal intercourse with HIV discordant/unknown status partner and injecting drugs outcomes were satisfactory. For these two outcomes, regardless of seed exclusion criteria used, the crude proportions fell within 95% confidence intervals of all RDS-weighted estimates. Significant differences between the three RDS estimators were not observed. CONCLUSIONS: Within a sample of GBMSM in Vancouver, Canada, this RDS study suggests that when equilibrium and homophily are met, although potentially costly and time consuming, analysis is not negatively affected by large numbers of unproductive or lowly productive seeds.