Understanding covid-19 outcomes among people with intellectual disabilities in England.

BACKGROUND: Evidence from the UK from the early stages of the covid-19 pandemic showed that people with Intellectual Disabilities (ID) had higher rates of covid-19 mortality than people without ID. However, estimates of the magnitude of risk vary widely; different studies used different time periods; and only early stages of the pandemic have been analysed. Existing analyses of risk factors have also been limited. The objective of this study was to investigate covid-19 mortality rates, hospitalisation rates, and risk factors in people with ID in England up to the end of 2021. METHODS: Retrospective cohort study of all people with a laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection or death involving covid-19. Datasets covering primary care, secondary care, covid-19 tests and vaccinations, prescriptions, and deaths were linked at individual level. RESULTS: Covid-19 carries a disproportionately higher risk of death for people with ID, above their already higher risk of dying from other causes, in comparison to those without ID. Around 2,000 people with ID had a death involving covid-19 in England up to the end of 2021; approximately 1 in 180. The covid-19 standardized mortality ratio was 5.6 [95% CI 5.4, 5.9]. People with ID were also more likely to be hospitalised for covid-19 than people without ID. The main determinants of severe covid-19 outcomes (deaths and/or hospitalisations) in both populations were age, multimorbidity and vaccination status. The key factor responsible for the higher risk of severe covid-19 in the ID population was a much higher prevalence of multimorbidity in this population. AstraZeneca vaccine was slightly less effective in preventing severe covid-19 outcomes among people with ID than among people without ID. CONCLUSIONS: People with ID should be considered a priority group in future pandemics, such as shielding and vaccinations.

Rates, causes and predictors of all-cause and avoidable mortality in 163 686 children and young people with and without intellectual disabilities: a record linkage national cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate mortality rates and associated factors, and avoidable mortality in children/young people with intellectual disabilities. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort; individual record-linked data between Scotland's 2011 Census and 9.5 years of National Records for Scotland death certification data. SETTING: General community. PARTICIPANTS: Children and young people with intellectual disabilities living in Scotland aged 5-24 years, and an age-matched comparison group. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Deaths up to 2020: age of death, age-standardised mortality ratios (age-SMRs); causes of death including cause-specific age-SMRs/sex-SMRs; and avoidable deaths. RESULTS: Death occurred in 260/7247 (3.6%) children/young people with intellectual disabilities (crude mortality rate=388/100 000 person-years) and 528/156 439 (0.3%) children/young people without intellectual disabilities (crude mortality rate=36/100 000 person-years). SMRs for children/young people with versus those without intellectual disabilities were 10.7 for all causes (95% CI 9.47 to 12.1), 5.17 for avoidable death (95% CI 4.19 to 6.37), 2.3 for preventable death (95% CI 1.6 to 3.2) and 16.1 for treatable death (95% CI 12.5 to 20.8). SMRs were highest for children (27.4, 95% CI 20.6 to 36.3) aged 5-9 years, and lowest for young people (6.6, 95% CI 5.1 to 8.6) aged 20-24 years. SMRs were higher in more affluent neighbourhoods. Crude mortality incidences were higher for the children/young people with intellectual disabilities for most International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, 10th Revision chapters. The most common underlying avoidable causes of mortality for children/young people with intellectual disabilities were epilepsy, aspiration/reflux/choking and respiratory infection, and for children/young people without intellectual disabilities were suicide, accidental drug-related deaths and car accidents. CONCLUSION: Children with intellectual disabilities had significantly higher rates of all-cause, avoidable, treatable and preventable mortality than their peers. The largest differences were for treatable mortality, particularly at ages 5-9 years. Interventions to improve healthcare to reduce treatable mortality should be a priority for children/young people with intellectual disabilities. Examples include improved epilepsy management and risk assessments, and coordinated multidisciplinary actions to reduce aspiration/reflux/choking and respiratory infection. This is necessary across all neighbourhoods.

Smartphone-based Respondent Driven Sampling (RDS): A methodological advance in surveying small or 'hard-to-reach' populations.

Producing statistically robust profiles of small or 'hard-to-reach' populations has always been a challenge for researchers. Since surveying the wider population in order to capture a large enough sample of cases is usually too costly or impractical, researchers have been opting for 'snowballing' or 'time-location sampling'. The former does not allow for claims to representativeness, and the latter struggles with under-coverage and estimating confidence intervals. Respondent Driven Sampling (RDS) is a method that combines snowballing sampling with an analytical algorithm that corrects for biases that arise in snowballing. For all its advantages, a major weakness of RDS has been around data collection. Traditionally done on-site, the process is costly and lengthy. When done online, it is cheaper and faster but under a serious threat from fraud, compromising data quality and validity of findings. This paper describes a real-life application of a RDS data collection system that maximizes fraud prevention while still benefiting from low cost and speedy data collection.

Understanding the post-2010 increase in food bank use in England: new quasi-experimental analysis of the role of welfare policy.

BACKGROUND: The number of food banks (charitable outlets of emergency food parcels) and the volume of food distributed by them increased multi-fold in the United Kingdom (UK) since 2010. The overwhelming majority of users of food banks are severely food insecure. Since food insecurity implies a nutritionally inadequate diet, and poor dietary intake has been linked to a number of diseases and chronic conditions, the rise in the number of people using food banks is a phenomenon of significant importance for public health. However, there is a shortage of robust, causal statistical analyses of drivers of food bank use, hindering social and political action on alleviating severe food insecurity. METHODS: A panel dataset of 325 local authorities in England was constructed, spanning 9 years (2011/12-2019/20). The dataset included information about the volume of parcels and the number of food banks in the Trussell Trust network, as well as economy-related, welfare system-related and housing-related variables. A quasi-experimental approach was employed in the form of a 'first differencing' ecological model, predicting the number of food parcels distributed by food banks in the Trussell Trust network. This neutralised bias from omitting time-constant unobserved confounders. RESULTS: Seven predictors in the model were statistically significant, including four related to the welfare system: the value of the main out-of-work benefit; the roll-out of Universal Credit; benefit sanctions; and the 'bedroom tax' in social housing. Of the remaining three significant predictors, one regarded the 'supply' side (the number of food banks in the area) and two regarded the 'demand' side (the proportion of working age population on out-of-work benefits; the proportion of working age population who were unemployed). CONCLUSION: The structure of the welfare system has been partly responsible for driving food bank use in the UK since 2011. Severe food insecurity could be alleviated by reforming aspects of the benefit system that have been evidenced to be implicated in the rise in food bank use. More broadly, the findings provide support for 'Health and Health Equity in All Policies' approach to policymaking.