An innovative artificial intelligence-based method to compress complex models into explainable, model-agnostic and reduced decision support systems with application to healthcare (NEAR).

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: In everyday clinical practice, medical decision is currently based on clinical guidelines which are often static and rigid, and do not account for population variability, while individualized, patient-oriented decision and/or treatment are the paradigm change necessary to enter into the era of precision medicine. Most of the limitations of a guideline-based system could be overcome through the adoption of Clinical Decision Support Systems (CDSSs) based on Artificial Intelligence (AI) algorithms. However, the black-box nature of AI algorithms has hampered a large adoption of AI-based CDSSs in clinical practice. In this study, an innovative AI-based method to compress AI-based prediction models into explainable, model-agnostic, and reduced decision support systems (NEAR) with application to healthcare is presented and validated. METHODS: NEAR is based on the Shapley Additive Explanations framework and can be applied to complex input models to obtain the contributions of each input feature to the output. Technically, the simplified NEAR models approximate contributions from input features using a custom library and merge them to determine the final output. Finally, NEAR estimates the confidence error associated with the single input feature contributing to the final score, making the result more interpretable. Here, NEAR is evaluated on a clinical real-world use case, the mortality prediction in patients who experienced Acute Coronary Syndrome (ACS), applying three different Machine Learning/Deep Learning models as implementation examples. RESULTS: NEAR, when applied to the ACS use case, exhibits performances like the ones of the AI-based model from which it is derived, as in the case of the Adaptive Boosting classifier, whose Area Under the Curve is not statistically different from the NEAR one, even the model's simplification. Moreover, NEAR comes with intrinsic explainability and modularity, as it can be tested on the developed web application platform (https://neardashboard.pythonanywhere.com/). CONCLUSIONS: An explainable and reliable CDSS tailored to single-patient analysis has been developed. The proposed AI-based system has the potential to be used alongside the clinical guidelines currently employed in the medical setting making them more personalized and dynamic and assisting doctors in taking their everyday clinical decisions.

Cardiovascular risk prediction: from classical statistical methods to machine learning approaches.

Nowadays, cardiovascular risk prediction scores are commonly used in primary prevention settings. Estimating the cardiovascular individual risk is of crucial importance for effective patient management and optimal therapy identification, with relevant consequences on secondary prevention settings. To reach this goal, a plethora of risk scores have been developed in the past, most of them assuming that each cardiovascular risk factor is linearly dependent on the outcome. However, the overall accuracy of these methods often remains insufficient to solve the problem at hand. In this scenario, machine learning techniques have repeatedly proved successful in improving cardiovascular risk predictions, being able to capture the non-linearity present in the data. In this concern, we present a detailed discussion concerning the application of classical versus machine learning-based cardiovascular risk scores in the clinical setting. This review aimed to give an overview of the current risk scores based on classical statistical approaches and machine learning techniques applied to predict the risk of several cardiovascular diseases, comparing them, discussing their similarities and differences, and highlighting their main drawbacks to aid the physician having a more critical understanding of these tools.

Exploration of Spanish Olive Oil Quality with a Miniaturized Low-Cost Fluorescence Sensor and Machine Learning Techniques.

Extra virgin olive oil (EVOO) is the highest quality of olive oil and is characterized by highly beneficial nutritional properties. The large increase in both consumption and fraud, for example through adulteration, creates new challenges and an increasing demand for developing new quality assessment methodologies that are easier and cheaper to perform. As of today, the determination of olive oil quality is performed by producers through chemical analysis and organoleptic evaluation. The chemical analysis requires advanced equipment and chemical knowledge of certified laboratories, and has therefore limited accessibility. In this work a minimalist, portable, and low-cost sensor is presented, which can perform olive oil quality assessment using fluorescence spectroscopy. The potential of the proposed technology is explored by analyzing several olive oils of different quality levels, EVOO, virgin olive oil (VOO), and lampante olive oil (LOO). The spectral data were analyzed using a large number of machine learning methods, including artificial neural networks. The analysis performed in this work demonstrates the possibility of performing the classification of olive oil in the three mentioned classes with an accuracy of 100%. These results confirm that this minimalist low-cost sensor has the potential to substitute expensive and complex chemical analysis.

A Machine Learning Approach for Mortality Prediction in COVID-19 Pneumonia: Development and Evaluation of the Piacenza Score.

BACKGROUND: Several models have been developed to predict mortality in patients with COVID-19 pneumonia, but only a few have demonstrated enough discriminatory capacity. Machine learning algorithms represent a novel approach for the data-driven prediction of clinical outcomes with advantages over statistical modeling. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to develop a machine learning-based score-the Piacenza score-for 30-day mortality prediction in patients with COVID-19 pneumonia. METHODS: The study comprised 852 patients with COVID-19 pneumonia, admitted to the Guglielmo da Saliceto Hospital in Italy from February to November 2020. Patients' medical history, demographics, and clinical data were collected using an electronic health record. The overall patient data set was randomly split into derivation and test cohorts. The score was obtained through the naïve Bayes classifier and externally validated on 86 patients admitted to Centro Cardiologico Monzino (Italy) in February 2020. Using a forward-search algorithm, 6 features were identified: age, mean corpuscular hemoglobin concentration, PaO2/FiO2 ratio, temperature, previous stroke, and gender. The Brier index was used to evaluate the ability of the machine learning model to stratify and predict the observed outcomes. A user-friendly website was designed and developed to enable fast and easy use of the tool by physicians. Regarding the customization properties of the Piacenza score, we added a tailored version of the algorithm to the website, which enables an optimized computation of the mortality risk score for a patient when some of the variables used by the Piacenza score are not available. In this case, the naïve Bayes classifier is retrained over the same derivation cohort but using a different set of patient characteristics. We also compared the Piacenza score with the 4C score and with a naïve Bayes algorithm with 14 features chosen a priori. RESULTS: The Piacenza score exhibited an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.78 (95% CI 0.74-0.84, Brier score=0.19) in the internal validation cohort and 0.79 (95% CI 0.68-0.89, Brier score=0.16) in the external validation cohort, showing a comparable accuracy with respect to the 4C score and to the naïve Bayes model with a priori chosen features; this achieved an AUC of 0.78 (95% CI 0.73-0.83, Brier score=0.26) and 0.80 (95% CI 0.75-0.86, Brier score=0.17), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings demonstrated that a customizable machine learning-based score with a purely data-driven selection of features is feasible and effective for the prediction of mortality among patients with COVID-19 pneumonia.

JAK inhibitors in immune-mediated rheumatic diseases: From a molecular perspective to clinical studies.

The Janus Kinase signalling pathway is implicated in the pathogenesis of immune-related diseases. The potency of small-molecule Janus Kinase inhibitors in the treatment of inflammatory diseases demonstrates that this pathway can be successfully targeted for therapeutic purposes. The outstanding relevant questions concerning drugs' efficacy and toxicity challenge the research to enhance the selectivity of these drugs. The promising results of computational techniques, such as Molecular Dynamics and Molecular Docking, coupled with experimental studies, can improve the understanding of the molecular mechanism of Janus Kinase pathway and thus enable the rational design of new more selective inhibitor molecules.

Cardiovascular Risk Prediction in Ankylosing Spondylitis: From Traditional Scores to Machine Learning Assessment.

INTRODUCTION: The performance of seven cardiovascular (CV) risk algorithms is evaluated in a multicentric cohort of ankylosing spondylitis (AS) patients. Performance and calibration of traditional CV predictors have been compared with the novel paradigm of machine learning (ML). METHODS: A retrospective analysis of prospectively collected data from an AS cohort has been performed. The primary outcome was the first CV event. The discriminatory ability of the algorithms was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC), which is like the concordance-statistic (c-statistic). Three ML techniques were considered to calculate the CV risk: support vector machine (SVM), random forest (RF), and k-nearest neighbor (KNN). RESULTS: Of 133 AS patients enrolled, 18 had a CV event. c-statistic scores of 0.71, 0.61, 0.66, 0.68, 0.66, 0.72, and 0.67 were found, respectively, for SCORE, CUORE, FRS, QRISK2, QRISK3, RRS, and ASSIGN. AUC values for the ML algorithms were: 0.70 for SVM, 0.73 for RF, and 0.64 for KNN. Feature analysis showed that C-reactive protein (CRP) has the highest importance, while SBP and hypertension treatment have lower importance. CONCLUSIONS: All of the evaluated CV risk algorithms exhibit a poor discriminative ability, except for RRS and SCORE, which showed a fair performance. For the first time, we demonstrated that AS patients do not show the traditional ones used by CV scores and that the most important variable is CRP. The present study contributes to a deeper understanding of CV risk in AS, allowing the development of innovative CV risk patient-specific models.