Environmental heterogeneity at two spatial scales affects litter diversity-decomposition relationships.

The effects of biodiversity on ecological processes have been experimentally evaluated mainly at the local scale under homogeneous conditions. To scale up experimentally based biodiversity-functioning relationships, there is an urgent need to understand how such relationships are affected by the environmental heterogeneity that characterizes larger spatial scales. Here, we tested the effects of an 800-m elevation gradient (a large-scale environmental factor) and forest habitat (a fine-scale factor) on litter diversity-decomposition relationships. To better understand local and landscape scale mechanisms, we partitioned net biodiversity effects into complementarity, selection, and insurance effects as applicable at each scale. We assembled different litter mixtures in aquatic microcosms that simulated natural tree holes, replicating mixtures across blocks nested within forest habitats (edge, interior) and elevations (low, mid, high). We found that net biodiversity and complementarity effects increased over the elevation gradient, with their strength modified by forest habitat and the identity of litter in mixtures. Complementarity effects at local and landscape scales were greatest for combinations of nutrient-rich and nutrient-poor litters, consistent with nutrient transfer mechanisms. By contrast, selection effects were consistently weak and negative at both scales. Selection effects at the landscape level were due mainly to nonrandom overyielding rather than spatial insurance effects. Our findings demonstrate that the mechanisms by which litter diversity affects decomposition are sensitive to environmental heterogeneity at multiple scales. This has implications for the scaling of biodiversity-ecosystem function relationships and suggests that future shifts in environmental conditions due to climate change or land use may impact the functioning of aquatic ecosystems.

Trophic cascades within and across ecosystems: The role of anti-predatory defences, predator type and detritus quality.

Species in one ecosystem can indirectly affect multiple biodiversity components and ecosystem functions of adjacent ecosystems. The magnitude of these cross-ecosystem effects depends on the attributes of the organisms involved in the interactions, including traits of the predator, prey and basal resource. However, it is unclear how predators with cross-ecosystem habitat interact with predators with single-ecosystem habitat to affect their shared ecosystem. Also, unknown is how such complex top-down effects may be mediated by the anti-predatory traits of prey and quality of the basal resource. We used the aquatic invertebrate food webs in tank bromeliads as a model system to investigate these questions. We manipulated the presence of a strictly aquatic predator (damselfly larvae) and a predator with both terrestrial and aquatic habitats (spider), and examined effects on survival of prey (detritivores grouped by anti-predator defence), detrital decomposition (of two plant species differing in litter quality), nitrogen flux and host plant growth. To evaluate the direct and indirect effects each predator type on multiple detritivore groups and ultimately on multiple ecosystem processes, we used piecewise structural equation models. For each response variable, we isolated the contribution of different detritivore groups to overall effects by comparing alternate model formulations. Alone, damselfly larvae and spiders each directly decreased survival of detritivores and caused multiple indirect negative effects on detritus decomposition, nutrient cycling and host plant growth. However, when predators co-occurred, the spider caused a negative non-consumptive effect on the damselfly larva, diminishing the net direct and indirect top-down effects on the aquatic detritivore community and ecosystem functioning. Both detritivore traits and detritus quality modulated the strength and mechanism of these trophic cascades. Predator interference was mediated by undefended or partially defended detritivores as detritivores with anti-predatory defences evaded consumption by damselfly larvae but not spiders. Predators and detritivores affected ecosystem decomposition and nutrient cycling only in the presence of high-quality detritus, as the low-quality detritus was consumed more by microbes than invertebrates. The complex responses of this system to predators from both recipient and adjacent ecosystems highlight the critical role of maintaining biodiversity components across multiple ecosystems.

As espécies em um ecossistema podem afetar indiretamente múltiplos componentes da biodiversidade e funções ecossistêmicas em ecossistemas adjacentes. A magnitude destes efeitos entre ecossistemas depende dos atributos dos organismos envolvidos nas interações, incluindo características do predador, da presa e do recurso basal. No entanto, não está claro como os predadores com habitat em múltiplos ecossistemas interagem com predadores de um ecossistema único, e como isso afeta o ecossistema partilhado entre eles. Além disso, não se sabe como esses efeitos complexos do tipo top-down podem ser mediados pelas características antipredatórias da presa e pela qualidade do recurso basal. Usamos as teias alimentares de invertebrados aquáticos de bromélias-tanque como um sistema modelo para investigar essas questões. Nós manipulamos a presença de um predador estritamente aquático (larvas de zigópteros) e um predador com habitats terrestre e aquático (aranha), e examinamos os efeitos na sobrevivência de presas (grupos de detritívoros com diferentes estratégias de defesa antipredatória), decomposição de detritos foliares (de duas espécies de plantas diferindo na qualidade foliar), fluxo de nitrogênio e crescimento da planta hospedeira. Para avaliar os efeitos diretos e indiretos de cada tipo de predador em múltiplos grupos de detritívoros e, finalmente, em múltiplos processos ecossistêmicos, utilizamos modelos de equações estruturais por partes (piecewiseSEM). Para cada variável resposta, isolamos a contribuição de diferentes grupos de detritívoros bem como seus efeitos globais, comparando modelos alternativos. Larvas de zigópteros e aranhas diminuíram diretamente a sobrevivência dos detritívoros e causaram múltiplos efeitos negativos indiretos na decomposição de detritos, na ciclagem de nutrientes e no crescimento da planta hospedeira. No entanto, quando os predadores coocorreram, a aranha causou um efeito negativo não consumível na larva de zigóptero, diminuindo os efeitos líquidos, diretos e indiretos, do tipo top-down na comunidade de detritívoros aquáticos e no funcionamento do ecossistema. Tanto os atributos antipredatórios dos detritívoros quanto a qualidade dos detritos modularam a força e o mecanismo dessas cascatas tróficas. A interferência do predador foi mediada por detritívoros indefesos ou com defesa parcial. Entretanto, os detritívoros com defesas antipredatórias escaparam do consumo por larvas de zigópteros, mas não por aranhas. Predadores e detritívoros afetaram a decomposição do ecossistema e a ciclagem de nutrientes apenas na presença de detritos de alta qualidade, uma vez que os detritos de baixa qualidade foram consumidos mais por micróbios do que por invertebrados. As respostas complexas deste sistema aos predadores tanto de ecossistemas receptores quanto adjacentes destacam o papel crítico da manutenção dos componentes da biodiversidade em múltiplos ecossistemas.

Insects in the city: Determinants of a contained aquatic microecosystem across an urbanized landscape.

Cities can have profound impacts on ecosystems, yet our understanding of these impacts is currently limited. First, the effects of the socioeconomic dimensions of human society are often overlooked. Second, correlative analyses are common, limiting our causal understanding of mechanisms. Third, most research has focused on terrestrial systems, ignoring aquatic systems that also provide important ecosystem services. Here we compare the effects of human population density and low-income prevalence on the macroinvertebrate communities and ecosystem processes within water-filled artificial tree holes. We hypothesized that these human demographic variables would affect tree holes in different ways via changes in temperature, water nutrients, and the local tree hole environment. We recruited community scientists across Greater Vancouver (Canada) to provide host trees and tend 50 tree holes over 14 weeks of colonization. We quantified tree hole ecosystems in terms of aquatic invertebrates, litter decomposition, and chlorophyll a (chl a). We compiled potential explanatory variables from field measurements, satellite images, or census databases. Using structural equation models, we showed that invertebrate abundance was affected by low-income prevalence but not human population density. This was driven by cosmopolitan species of Ceratopogonidae (Diptera) with known associations to anthropogenic containers. Invertebrate diversity and abundance were also affected by environmental factors, such as temperature, elevation, water nutrients, litter quantity, and exposure. By contrast, invertebrate biomass, chl a, and litter decomposition were not affected by any measured variables. In summary, this study shows that some urban ecosystems can be largely unaffected by human population density. Our study also demonstrates the potential of using artificial tree holes as a standardized, replicated habitat for studying urbanization. Finally, by combining community science and urban ecology, we were able to involve our local community in this pandemic research pivot.

Do bromeliads affect the arboreal ant communities on orange trees in northwestern Costa Rica?

Ants often interact with other invertebrates as predators or mutualists. Epiphytic bromeliads provide nesting sites for ants, and could increase ant abundances in the tree canopy. We surveyed ants in the foliage of orange trees that either hosted bromeliads or did not. To determine if observed associations between bromeliads and tree ants were causal, we removed bromeliads from half of the trees, and resurveyed ants six weeks later. Our results show that bromeliad presence is correlated with higher ant abundances and different species of ants on orange trees during the dry season. This increase in ant abundance was driven primarily by Solenopsis ants, which were both numerous and found to facultatively nest in bromeliads. Bromeliad removal did not affect either ant abundance or composition, potentially because this manipulation coincided with the transition from dry to wet season. Other ant species were never encountered nesting in bromeliads, and the abundances of such ants on tree leaves were unaffected by bromeliad presence or removal. Considering the importance of ants in herbivore regulation, our findings suggest that bromeliads-through their association with ants-could indirectly be associated with biological control in agricultural systems.

Data rescue: saving environmental data from extinction.

Historical and long-term environmental datasets are imperative to understanding how natural systems respond to our changing world. Although immensely valuable, these data are at risk of being lost unless actively curated and archived in data repositories. The practice of data rescue, which we define as identifying, preserving, and sharing valuable data and associated metadata at risk of loss, is an important means of ensuring the long-term viability and accessibility of such datasets. Improvements in policies and best practices around data management will hopefully limit future need for data rescue; these changes, however, do not apply retroactively. While rescuing data is not new, the term lacks formal definition, is often conflated with other terms (i.e. data reuse), and lacks general recommendations. Here, we outline seven key guidelines for effective rescue of historically collected and unmanaged datasets. We discuss prioritization of datasets to rescue, forming effective data rescue teams, preparing the data and associated metadata, and archiving and sharing the rescued materials. In an era of rapid environmental change, the best policy solutions will require evidence from both contemporary and historical sources. It is, therefore, imperative that we identify and preserve valuable, at-risk environmental data before they are lost to science.

Asynchronous recovery of predators and prey conditions resilience to drought in a neotropical ecosystem.

The predicted increase in the intensity and frequency of drought events associated with global climate change will impose severe hydrological stress to freshwater ecosystems, potentially altering their structure and function. Unlike freshwater communities' direct response to drought, their post-drought recovery capacities remain understudied despite being an essential component driving ecosystem resilience. Here we used tank bromeliad as model ecosystem to emulate droughts of different duration and then assess the recovery capacities of ecosystem structure and function. We followed macroinvertebrate predator and prey biomass to characterize the recovery dynamics of trophic structure (i.e. predator-prey biomass ratio) during the post-drought rewetting phase. We showed that drought significantly affects the trophic structure of macroinvertebrates by reducing the predator-prey biomass ratio. The asynchronous recovery of predator and prey biomass appeared as a critical driver of the post-drought recovery trajectory of trophic structure. Litter decomposition rate, which is an essential ecosystem function, remained stable after drought events, indicating the presence of compensatory effects between detritivores biomass and detritivores feeding activity. We conclude that, in a context of global change, the asynchrony in post-drought recovery of different trophic levels may impact the overall drought resilience of small freshwater ecosystems in a more complex way than expected.

Climate variability and aridity modulate the role of leaf shelters for arthropods: A global experiment.

Current climate change is disrupting biotic interactions and eroding biodiversity worldwide. However, species sensitive to aridity, high temperatures, and climate variability might find shelter in microclimatic refuges, such as leaf rolls built by arthropods. To explore how the importance of leaf shelters for terrestrial arthropods changes with latitude, elevation, and climate, we conducted a distributed experiment comparing arthropods in leaf rolls versus control leaves across 52 sites along an 11,790 km latitudinal gradient. We then probed the impact of short- versus long-term climatic impacts on roll use, by comparing the relative impact of conditions during the experiment versus average, baseline conditions at the site. Leaf shelters supported larger organisms and higher arthropod biomass and species diversity than non-rolled control leaves. However, the magnitude of the leaf rolls' effect differed between long- and short-term climate conditions, metrics (species richness, biomass, and body size), and trophic groups (predators vs. herbivores). The effect of leaf rolls on predator richness was influenced only by baseline climate, increasing in magnitude in regions experiencing increased long-term aridity, regardless of latitude, elevation, and weather during the experiment. This suggests that shelter use by predators may be innate, and thus, driven by natural selection. In contrast, the effect of leaf rolls on predator biomass and predator body size decreased with increasing temperature, and increased with increasing precipitation, respectively, during the experiment. The magnitude of shelter usage by herbivores increased with the abundance of predators and decreased with increasing temperature during the experiment. Taken together, these results highlight that leaf roll use may have both proximal and ultimate causes. Projected increases in climate variability and aridity are, therefore, likely to increase the importance of biotic refugia in mitigating the effects of climate change on species persistence.

Subtle structures with not-so-subtle functions: A data set of arthropod constructs and their host plants.

The construction of shelters on plants by arthropods might influence other organisms via changes in colonization, community richness, species composition, and functionality. Arthropods, including beetles, caterpillars, sawflies, spiders, and wasps often interact with host plants via the construction of shelters, building a variety of structures such as leaf ties, tents, rolls, and bags; leaf and stem galls, and hollowed out stems. Such constructs might have both an adaptive value in terms of protection (i.e., serve as shelters) but may also exert a strong influence on terrestrial community diversity in the engineered and neighboring hosts via colonization by secondary occupants. Although different traits of the host plant (e.g., physical, chemical, and architectural features) may affect the potential for ecosystem engineering by insects, such effects have been, to a certain degree, overlooked. Further analyses of how plant traits affect the occurrence of shelters may therefore enrich our understanding of the organizing principles of plant-based communities. This data set includes more than 1000 unique records of ecosystem engineering by arthropods, in the form of structures built on plants. All records have been published in the literature, and span both natural structures (91% of the records) and structures artificially created by researchers (9% of the records). The data were gathered between 1932 and 2021, across more than 50 countries and several ecosystems, ranging from polar to tropical zones. In addition to data on host plants and engineers, we aggregated data on the type of constructs and the identity of inquilines using these structures. This data set highlights the importance of these subtle structures for the organization of terrestrial arthropod communities, enabling hypotheses testing in ecological studies addressing ecosystem engineering and facilitation mediated by constructs. There are no copyright restrictions and please cite this paper when using the data in publications.

In situ resistance, not immigration, supports invertebrate community resilience to drought intensification in a Neotropical ecosystem.

While future climate scenarios predict declines in precipitations in many regions of the world, little is known of the mechanisms underlying community resilience to prolonged dry seasons, especially in 'naïve' Neotropical rainforests. Predictions of community resilience to intensifying drought are complicated by the fact that the underlying mechanisms are mediated by species' tolerance and resistance traits, as well as rescue through dispersal from source patches. We examined the contribution of in situ tolerance-resistance and immigration to community resilience, following drought events that ranged from the ambient norm to IPCC scenarios and extreme events. We used rainshelters above rainwater-filled bromeliads of French Guiana to emulate a gradient of drought intensity (from 1 to 3.6 times the current number of consecutive days without rainfall), and we analysed the post-drought dynamics of the taxonomic and functional community structure of aquatic invertebrates to these treatments when immigration is excluded (by netting bromeliads) or permitted (no nets). Drought intensity negatively affected invertebrate community resistance, but had a positive influence on community recovery during the post-drought phase. After droughts of 1 to 1.4 times the current intensities, the overall invertebrate abundance recovered within invertebrate life cycle durations (up to 2 months). Shifts in taxonomic composition were more important after longer droughts, but overall, community composition showed recovery towards baseline states. The non-random patterns of changes in functional community structure indicated that deterministic processes like environmental filtering of traits drive community re-assembly patterns after a drought event. Community resilience mostly relied on in situ tolerance-resistance traits. A rescue effect of immigration after a drought event was weak and mostly apparent under extreme droughts. Under climate change scenarios of drought intensification in Neotropical regions, community and ecosystem resilience could primarily depend on the persistence of suitable habitats and on the resistance traits of species, while metacommunity dynamics could make a minor contribution to ecosystem recovery. Climate change adaptation should thus aim at identifying and preserving local conditions that foster in situ resistance and the buffering effects of habitat features.

Genomic variation among populations provides insight into the causes of metacommunity survival.

Predators and prey interact at small spatial scales, but during their lifetime disperse at much larger spatial scales. Trophic metacommunity theory proposes that dispersal is a critical process that determines food web structure at small and large scales. The application of metacommunity theory to empirical systems remains elusive because key parameters such as dispersal and interaction strengths have been very difficult to quantify. Here we develop a novel approach that combines population genomics with mesocosm experiments to parameterize a metacommunity model. Using genotyping-by-sequencing, we characterized the dispersal kernels of a predator-prey pair living in a phytotelm metacommunity. We found that the prey dispersed up to 25 km while the predator dispersed only 350 m. We then quantified a functional response for these species using feeding trials. Even without invoking differences in the abiotic niche, our empirically parameterized simulation model produced patterns of population survival and occupancy that were consistent with past observations on the natural system. Importantly we found that these patterns were more likely to be found with simulations based on our observed values than in other regions of potential parameter space. This suggests that the observed dispersal kernels contribute to the dynamics of these species in the metacommunity.

Extreme rainfall events alter the trophic structure in bromeliad tanks across the Neotropics.

Changes in global and regional precipitation regimes are among the most pervasive components of climate change. Intensification of rainfall cycles, ranging from frequent downpours to severe droughts, could cause widespread, but largely unknown, alterations to trophic structure and ecosystem function. We conducted multi-site coordinated experiments to show how variation in the quantity and evenness of rainfall modulates trophic structure in 210 natural freshwater microcosms (tank bromeliads) across Central and South America (18°N to 29°S). The biomass of smaller organisms (detritivores) was higher under more stable hydrological conditions. Conversely, the biomass of predators was highest when rainfall was uneven, resulting in top-heavy biomass pyramids. These results illustrate how extremes of precipitation, resulting in localized droughts or flooding, can erode the base of freshwater food webs, with negative implications for the stability of trophic dynamics.

The Role of Evolution in Shaping Ecological Networks.

The structure of ecological networks reflects the evolutionary history of their biotic components, and their dynamics are strongly driven by ecoevolutionary processes. Here, we present an appraisal of recent relevant research, in which the pervasive role of evolution within ecological networks is manifest. Although evolutionary processes are most evident at macroevolutionary scales, they are also important drivers of local network structure and dynamics. We propose components of a blueprint for further research, emphasising process-based models, experimental evolution, and phenotypic variation, across a range of distinct spatial and temporal scales. Evolutionary dimensions are required to advance our understanding of foundational properties of community assembly and to enhance our capability of predicting how networks will respond to impending changes.

Bromeliads affect the interactions and composition of invertebrates on their support tree.

Individual species can have profound effects on ecological communities, but, in hyperdiverse systems, it can be challenging to determine the underlying ecological mechanisms. Simplifying species' responses by trophic level or functional group may be useful, but characterizing the trait structure of communities may be better related to niche processes. A largely overlooked trait in such community-level analyses is behaviour. In the Neotropics, epiphytic tank bromeliads (Bromeliaceae) harbour a distinct fauna of terrestrial invertebrates that is mainly composed of predators, such as ants and spiders. As these bromeliad-associated predators tend to forage on the bromeliads' support tree, they may influence the arboreal invertebrate fauna. We examined how, by increasing associated predator habitat, bromeliads may affect arboreal invertebrates. Specifically, we observed the trophic and functional group composition, and the behaviour and interspecific interactions of arboreal invertebrates in trees with and without bromeliads. Bromeliads modified the functional composition of arboreal invertebrates, but not the overall abundance of predators and herbivores. Bromeliads did not alter the overall behavioural profile of arboreal invertebrates, but did lead to more positive interactions in the day than at night, with a reverse pattern on trees without bromeliads. In particular, tending behaviours were influenced by bromeliad-associated predators. These results indicate that detailed examination of the functional affiliations and behaviour of organisms can reveal complex effects of habitat-forming species like bromeliads, even when total densities of trophic groups are insensitive.

Scaling-up biodiversity-ecosystem functioning research.

A rich body of knowledge links biodiversity to ecosystem functioning (BEF), but it is primarily focused on small scales. We review the current theory and identify six expectations for scale dependence in the BEF relationship: (1) a nonlinear change in the slope of the BEF relationship with spatial scale; (2) a scale-dependent relationship between ecosystem stability and spatial extent; (3) coexistence within and among sites will result in a positive BEF relationship at larger scales; (4) temporal autocorrelation in environmental variability affects species turnover and thus the change in BEF slope with scale; (5) connectivity in metacommunities generates nonlinear BEF and stability relationships by affecting population  synchrony at local and regional scales; (6) spatial scaling in food web structure and diversity will generate scale dependence in ecosystem functioning. We suggest directions for synthesis that combine approaches in metaecosystem and metacommunity ecology and integrate cross-scale feedbacks. Tests of this theory may combine remote sensing with a generation of networked experiments that assess effects at multiple scales. We also show how anthropogenic land cover change may alter the scaling of the BEF relationship. New research on the role of scale in BEF will guide policy linking the goals of managing biodiversity and ecosystems.

Ecological response to altered rainfall differs across the Neotropics.

There is growing recognition that ecosystems may be more impacted by infrequent extreme climatic events than by changes in mean climatic conditions. This has led to calls for experiments that explore the sensitivity of ecosystems over broad ranges of climatic parameter space. However, because such response surface experiments have so far been limited in geographic and biological scope, it is not clear if differences between studies reflect geographic location or the ecosystem component considered. In this study, we manipulated rainfall entering tank bromeliads in seven sites across the Neotropics, and characterized the response of the aquatic ecosystem in terms of invertebrate functional composition, biological stocks (total invertebrate biomass, bacterial density) and ecosystem fluxes (decomposition, carbon, nitrogen). Of these response types, invertebrate functional composition was the most sensitive, even though, in some sites, the species pool had a high proportion of drought-tolerant families. Total invertebrate biomass was universally insensitive to rainfall change because of statistical averaging of divergent responses between functional groups. The response of invertebrate functional composition to rain differed between geographical locations because (1) the effect of rainfall on bromeliad hydrology differed between sites, and invertebrates directly experience hydrology not rainfall and (2) the taxonomic composition of some functional groups differed between sites, and families differed in their response to bromeliad hydrology. These findings suggest that it will be difficult to establish thresholds of "safe ecosystem functioning" when ecosystem components differ in their sensitivity to climatic variables, and such thresholds may not be broadly applicable over geographic space. In particular, ecological forecast horizons for climate change may be spatially restricted in systems where habitat properties mediate climatic impacts, and those, like the tropics, with high spatial turnover in species composition.

Successful Integration of Data Science in Undergraduate Biostatistics Courses Using Cognitive Load Theory.

Biostatistics courses are integral to many undergraduate biology programs. Such courses have often been taught using point-and-click software, but these programs are now seldom used by researchers or professional biologists. Instead, biology professionals typically use programming languages, such as R, which are better suited to analyzing complex data sets. However, teaching biostatistics and programming simultaneously has the potential to overload the students and hinder their learning. We sought to mitigate this overload by using cognitive load theory (CLT) to develop assignments for two biostatistics courses. We evaluated the effectiveness of these assignments by comparing student cohorts who were taught R using these assignments (n = 146) with those who were taught R through example scripts or were instructed on a point-and-click software program (control, n = 181). We surveyed all cohorts and analyzed statistical and programming ability through students' lab reports or final exams. Students who learned R through our assignments rated their programming ability higher and were more likely to put the usage of R as a skill in their curricula vitae. We also found that the treatment students were more motivated, less frustrated, and less stressed when using R. These results suggest that we can use CLT to teach challenging material.

Disentangling how climate change can affect an aquatic food web by combining multiple experimental approaches.

Predicting the biological effects of climate change presents major challenges due to the interplay of potential biotic and abiotic mechanisms. Climate change can create unexpected outcomes by altering species interactions, and uncertainty over the ability of species to develop in situ tolerance or track environmental change further hampers meaningful predictions. As multiple climatic variables shift in concert, their potential interactions further complicate ecosystem responses. Despite awareness of these complexities, we still lack controlled experiments that manipulate multiple climatic stressors, species interactions, and prior exposure of species to future climatic conditions. Particularly studies that address how changes in water availability interact with other climatic stressors to affect aquatic ecosystems are still rare. Using aquatic insect communities of Neotropical tank bromeliads, we combined controlled manipulations of drought length and species interactions with a space-for-time transplant (lower elevations represent future climate) and a common garden approach. Manipulating drought length and experiment elevation revealed that adverse effects of drought were amplified at the warmer location, highlighting the potential of climatic stressors to synergistically affect communities. Manipulating the presence of omnivorous tipulid larvae showed that negative interactions from tipulids, presumably from predation, arose under drought, and were stronger at the warmer location, stressing the importance of species interactions in mediating community responses to climate change. The common garden treatments revealed that prior community exposure to potential future climatic conditions did not affect the outcome. In this powerful experiment, we demonstrated how complexities arise from the interplay of biotic and abiotic mechanisms of climate change. We stress that single species can steer ecological outcomes, and suggest that focusing on such disproportionately influential species may improve attempts at making meaningful predictions of climate change impacts on food webs.