Age and gender profiles of HIV infection burden and viraemia: novel metrics for HIV epidemic control in African populations with high antiretroviral therapy coverage.

Introduction: To prioritize and tailor interventions for ending AIDS by 2030 in Africa, it is important to characterize the population groups in which HIV viraemia is concentrating. Methods: We analysed HIV testing and viral load data collected between 2013-2019 from the open, population-based Rakai Community Cohort Study (RCCS) in Uganda, to estimate HIV seroprevalence and population viral suppression over time by gender, one-year age bands and residence in inland and fishing communities. All estimates were standardized to the underlying source population using census data. We then assessed 95-95-95 targets in their ability to identify the populations in which viraemia concentrates. Results: Following the implementation of Universal Test and Treat, the proportion of individuals with viraemia decreased from 4.9% (4.6%-5.3%) in 2013 to 1.9% (1.7%-2.2%) in 2019 in inland communities and from 19.1% (18.0%-20.4%) in 2013 to 4.7% (4.0%-5.5%) in 2019 in fishing communities. Viraemia did not concentrate in the age and gender groups furthest from achieving 95-95-95 targets. Instead, in both inland and fishing communities, women aged 25-29 and men aged 30-34 were the 5-year age groups that contributed most to population-level viraemia in 2019, despite these groups being close to or had already achieved 95-95-95 targets. Conclusions: The 95-95-95 targets provide a useful benchmark for monitoring progress towards HIV epidemic control, but do not contextualize underlying population structures and so may direct interventions towards groups that represent a marginal fraction of the population with viraemia.

The intersection between migration, HIV, and contraceptive use in Uganda: a cross-sectional population-based study.

BACKGROUND: Low use of modern methods of contraception has been linked to HIV seropositivity and to migration, but few studies have evaluated the intersection of both risk factors with contraceptive use. METHODS: We analyzed cross-sectional data from sexually active female participants aged 15 to 49 years in the Rakai Community Cohort Study (RCCS) between 2011 and 2013. The RCCS is an open population-based census and individual survey in south-central Uganda. Recent in-migrants (arrival within approximately 1.5 years) into RCCS communities were identified at time of household census. The primary outcome was unsatisfied demand for a modern contraceptive method (injectable, oral pill, implant, or condom), which was defined as non-use of a modern contraceptive method among female participants who did not want to become pregnant in the next 12 months. Poisson regression models with robust variance estimators were used to identify associations and interactions between recent migration and HIV serostatus on unsatisfied contraceptive demand. RESULTS: There were 3,417 sexually active participants with no intention of becoming pregnant in the next year. The mean age was 30 (± 8) years, and 17.3% (n = 591) were living with HIV. Overall, 43.9% (n = 1,500) were not using any modern contraceptive method. Recent in-migrants were somewhat more likely to have unsatisfied contraceptive demand as compared to long-term residents (adjusted prevalence risk ratio [adjPRR] = 1.14; 95% confidence interval [95%CI]: 1.02-1.27), whereas participants living with HIV were less likely to have unsatisfied contraceptive demand relative to HIV-seronegative participants (adjPRR = 0.80; 95%CI = 0.70-0.90). When stratifying on migration and HIV serostatus, we observed the highest levels of unsatisfied contraceptive demand among in-migrants living with HIV (48.7%); however, in regression analyses, interaction terms between migration and HIV serostatus were not statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS: Unsatisfied contraceptive demand was high in this rural Ugandan setting. Being an in-migrant, particularly among those living with HIV, was associated with higher unsatisfied contraceptive demand.

Through a cross-sectional study, we explored the relationship between HIV status, migration, and contraceptive use among sexually active women of reproductive age in rural south-central Uganda. People who had moved into the study area within the last 1.5 years were considered in-migrants, compared to long-term residents i.e. people who had not moved. We examined unsatisfied demand for a modern contraceptive method, which is to say female participants who did not want to become pregnant in the next 12 months and were not using at least one of the following contraceptive methods: injectable, oral pill, implant, or condom. We included 3,417 sexually active female participants with no intention of becoming pregnant in the next year. The average age of these women was 30 years, less than 20% were living with HIV, and almost half were not using any modern contraceptive methods. Recent in-migrants were somewhat more likely to have unsatisfied contraceptive demand as compared to long-term residents, whereas participants living with HIV were less likely to have unsatisfied contraceptive demand relative to HIV-negative participants. Being an in-migrant, particularly among those living with HIV, was associated with higher unsatisfied contraceptive demand. This study shows the need for integrating contraceptive and HIV services for mobile populations in East Africa.

Increasing intra- and inter-subtype HIV diversity despite declining HIV incidence in Uganda.

HIV incidence has been declining in Africa with scale-up of HIV interventions. However, there is limited data on HIV evolutionary trends in African populations with waning epidemics. We evaluated changes in HIV viral diversity and genetic divergence in southern Uganda over a twenty-five-year period spanning the introduction and scale-up of HIV prevention and treatment programs using HIV sequence and survey data from the Rakai Community Cohort Study, an open longitudinal population-based HIV surveillance cohort. Gag (p24) and env (gp41) HIV data were generated from persons living with HIV (PLHIV) in 31 inland semi-urban trading and agrarian communities (1994 to 2018) and four hyperendemic Lake Victoria fishing communities (2011 to 2018) under continuous surveillance. HIV subtype was assigned using the Recombination Identification Program with phylogenetic confirmation. Inter-subtype diversity was estimated using the Shannon diversity index and intra-subtype diversity with the nucleotide diversity and pairwise TN93 genetic distance. Genetic divergence was measured using root-to-tip distance and pairwise TN93 genetic distance analyses. Evolutionary dynamics were assessed among demographic and behavioral sub-groups, including by migration status. 9,931 HIV sequences were available from 4,999 PLHIV, including 3,060 and 1,939 persons residing in inland and fishing communities, respectively. In inland communities, subtype A1 viruses proportionately increased from 14.3% in 1995 to 25.9% in 2017 (p<0.001), while those of subtype D declined from 73.2% in 1995 to 28.2% in 2017 (p<0.001). The proportion of viruses classified as recombinants significantly increased by more than four-fold. Inter-subtype HIV diversity has generally increased. While p24 intra-subtype genetic diversity and divergence leveled off after 2014, diversity and divergence of gp41 increased through 2017. Inter- and intra-subtype viral diversity increased across all population sub-groups, including among individuals with no recent migration history or extra-community sexual partners. This study provides insights into population-level HIV evolutionary dynamics in declining African HIV epidemics following the scale-up of HIV prevention and treatment programs. Continued molecular surveillance may provide a better understanding of the dynamics driving population HIV evolution and yield important insights for epidemic control and vaccine development.

Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) knowledge, use, and discontinuation among Lake Victoria fisherfolk in Uganda: a cross-sectional population-based study.

Background: There are limited population-level data on the pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) care continuum in eastern Africa. Here, we assessed the PrEP care continuum following PrEP rollout in a Ugandan community with ~40% HIV seroprevalence. Methods: We used cross-sectional population-based data collected between September 3 and December 19, 2018 from a Lake Victoria fishing community in southern Uganda to measure levels of self-reported PrEP knowledge, ever use, and discontinuation following 2017 PrEP rollout via a U.S. President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR)-supported phased implementation program. Our analysis included HIV-seronegative persons reporting having ever received an HIV test result. We examined associations between demographic, behavioral, and health utilization factors with each outcome using age-adjusted modified Poisson regression. Results: There were 1,401 HIV-seronegative participants, of whom 1,363 (97.3%) reported ever receiving an HIV test result. Median age was 29 years (IQR: 23-36), and 42.3% (n=577) were women. Most (85.5%; n=1,166) participants reported PrEP knowledge, but few (14.5%; n=197) reported ever using PrEP. Among 375 (47.7%) men and 169 (29.3%) women PrEP-eligible at time of survey, 18.9% (n=71) and 27.8% (n=47) reported ever using PrEP, respectively. Over half (52.3%, n=103) of those who had ever used PrEP, self-reported current use. Conclusion: In this Lake Victoria fishing community, there were low levels of PrEP use despite high levels of PrEP awareness and eligibility, particularly among men. Efforts that enhance awareness of HIV risk and increase PrEP accessibility may help increase PrEP use among HIV-seronegative persons in African settings with high HIV burden.

Prevalence and risk factors of metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease in south Central Uganda: A cross-sectional survey.

BACKGROUND: Despite numerous risk factors and serious consequences, little is known about metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) at population level in Africa. AIM: The aim of the study was to estimate the prevalence and risk factors of MASLD in people living with and without HIV in Uganda. METHODS: We collected data from 37 communities in South Central Uganda between May 2016 and May 2018. We estimated MASLD prevalence using the fatty liver index and advanced liver fibrosis using the dynamic aspartate-to-alanine aminotransferase ratio. We collected additional data on sociodemographics, HIV and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors. We used multivariable logistic regression to determine the association between HIV, CVD risk factors and MASLD. RESULTS: We included 759 people with HIV and 704 HIV-negative participants aged 35-49. MASLD prevalence was 14% in women and 8% in men; advanced liver fibrosis prevalence was estimated to be <1%. MASLD prevalence was more common in women (15% vs. 13%) and men (9% vs. 6%) with HIV. Being female (odds ratio [OR] = 2.1; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.4-3.3) was associated with a higher odds of MASLD after adjustment for confounders; HIV infection was borderline associated with MASLD (OR = 1.4; 95% CI: 1.0-2.0). CONCLUSIONS: In a relatively young cohort in Uganda, 14% of women and 8% of men had MASLD. There was an indication of an association between HIV and MASLD in multivariable analysis. These data are the first to describe the population-level burden of MASLD in sub-Saharan Africa using data from a population-based cohort.

Temporal dynamics and drivers of durable HIV viral load suppression and persistent high- and low-level viraemia during Universal Test and Treat scale-up in Uganda: a population-based study.

INTRODUCTION: Population-level data on durable HIV viral load suppression (VLS) following the implementation of Universal Test and Treat (UTT) in Africa are limited. We assessed trends in durable VLS and viraemia among persons living with HIV in 40 Ugandan communities during the UTT scale-up. METHODS: In 2015-2020, we measured VLS (<200 RNA copies/ml) among participants in the Rakai Community Cohort Study, a longitudinal population-based HIV surveillance cohort in southern Uganda. Persons with unsuppressed viral loads were characterized as having low-level (200-999 copies/ml) or high-level (≥1000 copies/ml) viraemia. Individual virologic outcomes were assessed over two consecutive RCCS survey visits (i.e. visit-pairs; ∼18-month visit intervals) and classified as durable VLS (<200 copies/ml at both visits), new/renewed VLS (<200 copies/ml at follow-up only), viral rebound (<200 copies/ml at initial visit only) or persistent viraemia (≥200 copies/ml at both visits). Population prevalence of each outcome was assessed over calendar time. Community-level prevalence and individual-level predictors of persistent high-level viraemia were also assessed using multivariable Poisson regression with generalized estimating equations. RESULTS: Overall, 3080 participants contributed 4604 visit-pairs over three survey rounds. Most visit-pairs (72.4%) exhibited durable VLS, with few (2.5%) experiencing viral rebound. Among those with any viraemia at the initial visit (23.5%, n = 1083), 46.9% remained viraemic through follow-up, 91.3% of which was high-level viraemia. One-fifth (20.8%) of visit-pairs exhibiting persistent high-level viraemia self-reported antiretroviral therapy (ART) use for ≥12 months. Prevalence of persistent high-level viraemia varied substantially across communities and was significantly elevated among young persons aged 15-29 years (vs. 40- to 49-year-olds; adjusted risk ratio [adjRR] = 2.96; 95% confidence interval [95% CI]: 2.21-3.96), males (vs. females; adjRR = 2.40, 95% CI: 1.87-3.07), persons reporting inconsistent condom use with non-marital/casual partners (vs. persons with marital/permanent partners only; adjRR = 1.38, 95% CI: 1.10-1.74) and persons reporting hazardous alcohol use (adjRR = 1.09, 95% CI: 1.03-1.16). The prevalence of persistent high-level viraemia was highest among males <30 years (32.0%). CONCLUSIONS: Following universal ART provision, most persons living with HIV in south-central Uganda are durably suppressed. Among persons exhibiting any viraemia, nearly half exhibited high-level viraemia for ≥12 months and reported higher-risk behaviours associated with onward HIV transmission. Intensified efforts linking individuals to HIV treatment services could accelerate momentum towards HIV epidemic control.

HIV epidemiologic trends among occupational groups in Rakai, Uganda: A population-based longitudinal study, 1999-2016.

Certain occupations have been associated with heightened risk of HIV acquisition and spread in sub-Saharan Africa, including female bar and restaurant work and male transportation work. However, data on changes in population prevalence of HIV infection and HIV incidence within occupations following mass scale-up of African HIV treatment and prevention programs is very limited. We evaluated prospective data collected between 1999 and 2016 from the Rakai Community Cohort Study, a longitudinal population-based study of 15- to 49-year-old persons in Uganda. Adjusted prevalence risk ratios for overall, treated, and untreated, prevalent HIV infection, and incidence rate ratios for HIV incidence with 95% confidence intervals were estimated using Poisson regression to assess changes in HIV outcomes by occupation. Analyses were stratified by gender. There were 33,866 participants, including 19,113 (56%) women. Overall, HIV seroprevalence declined in most occupational subgroups among men, but increased or remained mostly stable among women. In contrast, prevalence of untreated HIV substantially declined between 1999 and 2016 in most occupations, irrespective of gender, including by 70% among men (12.3 to 4.2%; adjPRR = 0.30; 95%CI:0.23-0.41) and by 78% among women (14.7 to 4.0%; adjPRR = 0.22; 95%CI:0.18-0.27) working in agriculture, the most common self-reported primary occupation. Exceptions included men working in transportation. HIV incidence similarly declined in most occupations, but there were no reductions in incidence among female bar and restaurant workers, women working in local crafts, or men working in transportation. In summary, untreated HIV infection and HIV incidence have declined within most occupational groups in Uganda. However, women working in bars/restaurants and local crafts and men working in transportation continue to have a relatively high burden of untreated HIV and HIV incidence, and as such, should be considered priority populations for HIV programming.

Longitudinal population-level HIV epidemiologic and genomic surveillance highlights growing gender disparity of HIV transmission in Uganda.

HIV incidence in eastern and southern Africa has historically been concentrated among girls and women aged 15-24 years. As new cases decline with HIV interventions, population-level infection dynamics may shift by age and gender. Here, we integrated population-based surveillance of 38,749 participants in the Rakai Community Cohort Study and longitudinal deep-sequence viral phylogenetics to assess how HIV incidence and population groups driving transmission have changed from 2003 to 2018 in Uganda. We observed 1,117 individuals in the incidence cohort and 1,978 individuals in the transmission cohort. HIV viral suppression increased more rapidly in women than men, however incidence declined more slowly in women than men. We found that age-specific transmission flows shifted: whereas HIV transmission to girls and women (aged 15-24 years) from older men declined by about one-third, transmission to women (aged 25-34 years) from men that were 0-6 years older increased by half in 2003 to 2018. Based on changes in transmission flows, we estimated that closing the gender gap in viral suppression could have reduced HIV incidence in women by half in 2018. This study suggests that HIV programmes to increase HIV suppression in men are critical to reduce incidence in women, close gender gaps in infection burden and improve men's health in Africa.

Incidence of health facility switching and associations with HIV viral rebound among persons on antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Uganda: a population-based study.

BACKGROUND: A substantial fraction of persons on antiretroviral therapy (ART) considered lost to follow-up have actually transferred their HIV care to other facilities. However, the relationship between facility switching and virologic outcomes, including viral rebound, is poorly understood. METHODS: We used data from 40 communities (2015-2020) in the Rakai Community Cohort Study to estimate incidence of facility switching and viral rebound. Persons aged 15-49 years with serologically confirmed HIV infection self-reporting ART use and contributing ≥1 follow-up visits were included. Facility switching and virologic outcomes were assessed between two consecutive study visits (i.e., index and follow-up visits, ∼18-month interval). Those reporting different HIV treatment facilities between index and follow-up study visits were classified as having switched facilities. Virologic outcomes included viral rebound among individuals initially suppressed (<200 copies/mL). Multivariable Poisson regression was used to estimate associations between facility switching and viral rebound. RESULTS: Overall, 2,257 persons self-reporting ART use (median age: 35 years, 65% women, 92% initially suppressed) contributed 3,335 visit-pairs and 5,959 person-years (py) to the analysis. Facility switching was common (4.8 per 100 py, 95%CI 4.2-5.5) and most pronounced in persons <30 years and fishing community residents. Among persons suppressed at their index visit (n=2,076), incidence of viral rebound was over twice as high in persons who switched facilities (adjIRR=2.27, 95%CI 1.16-4.45). CONCLUSIONS: Facility switching was common and associated with viral rebound among persons initially suppressed. Investments in more agile, person-centered models for mobile clients are needed to address system inefficiencies and bottlenecks that can disrupt HIV care continuity.

HIV and viremia prevalence in non-migrating members of migrant households in Rakai region, Uganda: A cross-sectional population-based study.

Introduction: In sub-Saharan Africa, migrants are more likely to be HIV seropositive and viremic than non-migrants. However, little is known about HIV prevalence and viremia in non-migrants living in households with in- or out-migration events. We compared HIV outcomes in non-migrating persons in households with and without migration events using data from the Rakai Community Cohort Study (RCCS), an open population-based cohort in Uganda. Methods: We analyzed RCCS survey data from one survey round collected between August 2016 and May 2018 from non-migrating participants aged 15-49. Migrant households were classified as those reporting ≥1 member moving into or out of the household since the prior survey. A validated rapid test algorithm determined HIV serostatus. HIV viremia was defined as >1,000 copies/mL. Modified Poisson regression was used to estimate associations between household migration and HIV outcomes, with results reported as adjusted prevalence ratios (adjPR) with 95% confidence intervals (95%CI). Analyses were stratified by gender, direction of migration (into/out of the household), and relationship between non-migrants and migrants (e.g., spouse). Results: There were 14,599 non-migrants (7,654, 52% women) identified in 9,299 households. 4,415 (30%) lived in a household with ≥1 recent migrant; of these, 972(22%) had migrant spouses, 1,102(25%) migrant children, and 875(20%) migrant siblings. Overall, HIV prevalence and viremia did not differ between non-migrants in migrant and non-migrant households. However, in stratified analyses, non-migrant women with migrant spouses were significantly more likely to be HIV seropositive compared to non-migrant women with non-migrant spouses (adjPR:1.44, 95%CI:1.21-1.71). Conversely, non-migrant mothers living with HIV who had migrant children were less likely to be viremic (adjPR:0.34, 95%CI:0.13-0.86). Among non-migrant men living with HIV, spousal migration was associated with a non-significant increased risk of viremia (adjPR:1.37, 95%CI:0.94-1.99). Associations did not typically differ for migration into or out of the household. Conclusions: Household migration was associated with HIV outcomes for certain non-migrants, suggesting that the context of household migration influences the observed association with HIV outcomes. In particular, non-migrating women with migrating spouses were more likely to have substantially higher HIV burden. Non-migrants with migrant spouses may benefit from additional support when accessing HIV services.

Population prevalence of antiretroviral therapy sharing and its association with HIV viremia in rural Uganda: a cross-sectional population-based study.

INTRODUCTION: Antiretroviral treatment (ART) sharing has been reported among fishermen and sex workers in Uganda and South Africa. However, no population-based studies have documented ART diversion prevalence (including sharing [giving/receiving], buying and selling) or its relationship with viremia among men and women living with HIV in Africa. METHODS: In 2018-2020, we surveyed people living with HIV aged 15-49 years in 41 communities in the Rakai Community Cohort Study, a population-based cohort in south-central Uganda. We assessed the prevalence and correlates of self-reported lifetime and past-year ART diversion, stratifying by age and gender and documenting sources of diverted drugs. We used log-binomial regression to quantify the relationship between diversion patterns and viremia (viral load >40 copies/ml), reported as unadjusted and adjusted prevalence ratios (aPR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). RESULTS: Of 2852 people living with HIV and self-reporting current ART use, 266 (9.3%) reported lifetime ART diversion. Giving/receiving drugs were most common; few participants reported buying, and none reported selling. Men (12.9%) were more likely to report lifetime diversion than women (7.4%), with men aged 25-34 reporting high levels of sharing (18.9%). Friends were the most common sources of shared drugs, followed by spouses/sexual partners. Patterns of lifetime and past-year diversion were similar. Among participants with viral load results, 8.6% were viraemic. In adjusted analyses, people who reported only giving ART were nearly twice as likely to be viraemic than those who reported no diversion (aPR: 1.94, 95% CI: 1.10-3.44), and those reporting only receiving ART were less likely to exhibit viremia (aPR: 0.46, 95% CI: 0.12-1.79), although the latter was not statistically significant. Reporting both giving and receiving ART was not associated with viremia (aPR: 0.79, 95% CI: 0.43-1.46). Reporting buying ART, though rare, was also correlated with higher rates of viremia, but this relationship was not statistically significant (aPR: 1.98, 95% CI: 0.72-5.45). CONCLUSIONS: ART sharing is common among persons reporting ART use in rural Uganda, particularly among men. Sharing ART was associated with viremia, and receiving ART may facilitate viral suppression. HIV programmes may benefit from considering ART sharing in counselling messages.

The intersection between migration, HIV, and family planning in Uganda: a cross-sectional population-based study.

Background: Low use of modern methods of contraception has been linked to HIV seropositivity and to migration, but few studies have evaluated the intersection of both risk factors with contraceptive use. Methods: We analyzed cross-sectional data from sexually active female participants aged 15 to 49 years in the Rakai Community Cohort Study (RCCS) between 2011 and 2013. The RCCS is an open population-based census and individual survey in south-central Uganda. Recent in-migrants (arrival within approximately 1.5 years) into RCCS communities were identified at time of household census. The primary outcome was unsatisfied demand for a modern contraceptive method (injectable, oral pill, implant, or condom), which was defined as non-use of a modern contraceptive method among female participants who did not want to become pregnant in the next 12 months. Poisson regression models with robust variance estimators were used to identify associations and interactions between recent migration and HIV serostatus on unsatisfied contraceptive demand. Results: There were 3,417 sexually active participants with no intention of becoming pregnant in the next year. The mean age was 30 (±8) years, and 17.3% (n=591) were living with HIV. Overall, 43.9% (n=1,500) were not using any modern contraceptive method. Recent in-migrants were somewhat more likely to have unsatisfied contraceptive demand as compared to long-term residents (adjusted prevalence risk ratio [adjPRR]=1.14; 95% confidence interval [95%CI]: 1.02-1.27), whereas participants living with HIV were less likely to have unsatisfied contraceptive demand relative to HIV-seronegative participants (adjPRR=0.80; 95%CI=0.70-0.90). When stratifying on migration and HIV serostatus, we observed the highest levels of unsatisfied contraceptive demand among in-migrants living with HIV (48.7%); however, in regression analyses, interaction terms between migration and HIV serostatus were not statistically significant. Conclusions: Unsatisfied contraceptive demand was high in this rural Ugandan setting. Being an in-migrant, particularly among those living with HIV, was associated with higher unsatisfied contraceptive demand.

Temporal dynamics and drivers of durable HIV viral load suppression and persistent high- and low-level viremia during Universal Test and Treat scale-up in Uganda: a population-based study.

Introduction: Population-level data on durable HIV viral load suppression (VLS) following implementation of Universal Test and Treat (UTT) in Africa are limited. We assessed trends in durable VLS and viremia among persons living with HIV in 40 Ugandan communities during UTT scale-up. Methods: In 2015-2020, we measured VLS (defined as <200 RNA copies/mL) among participants in the Rakai Community Cohort Study, a longitudinal population-based HIV surveillance cohort in southern Uganda. Persons with unsuppressed viral loads were characterized as having low-level (200-999 copies/mL) or high-level (≥1,000 copies/mL) viremia. Individual virologic outcomes were assessed over two consecutive RCCS survey visits (i.e., visit-pairs; ∼18 month visit intervals) and classified as durable VLS (<200 copies/mL at both visits), new/renewed VLS (<200 copies/mL at follow-up only), viral rebound (<200 copies/mL at initial visit only), or persistent viremia (<200 copies/mL at neither visit). Population prevalence of each outcome was assessed over calendar time. Community-level prevalence and individual-level predictors of persistent high-level viremia were also assessed using multivariable Poisson regression with generalized estimating equations. Results: Overall, 3,080 participants contributed 4,604 visit-pairs over three survey rounds. Most visit-pairs (72.4%) exhibited durable VLS, with few (2.5%) experiencing viral rebound. Among those with viremia at the initial visit ( n =1,083), 46.9% maintained viremia through follow-up, 91.3% of which was high-level viremia. One-fifth (20.8%) of visit-pairs exhibiting persistent high-level viremia self-reported antiretroviral therapy (ART) use for ≥12 months. Prevalence of persistent high-level viremia varied substantially across communities and was significantly elevated among young persons aged 15-29 years (versus 40-49-year-olds; adjusted risk ratio [adjRR]=2.96; 95% confidence interval [95%CI]:2.21-3.96), men (versus women; adjRR=2.40, 95%CI:1.87-3.07), persons reporting inconsistent condom use with non-marital/casual partners (versus persons with marital/permanent partners only; adjRR=1.38, 95%CI:1.10-1.74), and persons exhibiting hazardous alcohol use (adjRR=1.09, 95%CI:1.03-1.16). The prevalence of persistent high-level viremia was highest among men <30 years (32.0%). Conclusions: Following universal ART provision, most persons living with HIV in south-central Uganda are durably suppressed. Among persons exhibiting viremia, nearly half maintain high-level viremia for ≥12 months and report higher-risk behaviors associated with onward HIV transmission. Enhanced linkage to HIV care and optimized treatment retention could accelerate momentum towards HIV epidemic control.

Implications of rapid population growth on survey design and HIV estimates in the Rakai Community Cohort Study (RCCS), Uganda.

OBJECTIVE: Since rapid population growth challenges longitudinal population-based HIV cohorts in Africa to maintain coverage of their target populations, this study evaluated whether the exclusion of some residents due to growing population size biases key HIV metrics like prevalence and population-level viremia. DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Data were obtained from the Rakai Community Cohort Study (RCCS) in south central Uganda, an open population-based cohort which began excluding some residents of newly constructed household structures within its surveillance boundaries in 2008. The study includes adults aged 15-49 years who were censused from 2019 to 2020. MEASURES: We fit ensemble machine learning models to RCCS census and survey data to predict HIV seroprevalence and viremia (prevalence of those with viral load >1000 copies/mL) in the excluded population and evaluated whether their inclusion would change overall estimates. RESULTS: Of the 24 729 census-eligible residents, 2920 (12%) residents were excluded from the RCCS because they were living in new households. The predicted seroprevalence for these excluded residents was 10.8% (95% CI: 9.6% to 11.8%)-somewhat lower than 11.7% (95% CI: 11.2% to 12.3%) in the observed sample. Predicted seroprevalence for younger excluded residents aged 15-24 years was 4.9% (95% CI: 3.6% to 6.1%)-significantly higher than that in the observed sample for the same age group (2.6% (95% CI: 2.2% to 3.1%)), while predicted seroprevalence for older excluded residents aged 25-49 years was 15.0% (95% CI: 13.3% to 16.4%)-significantly lower than their counterparts in the observed sample (17.2% (95% CI: 16.4% to 18.1%)). Over all ages, the predicted prevalence of viremia in excluded residents (3.7% (95% CI: 3.0% to 4.5%)) was significantly higher than that in the observed sample (1.7% (95% CI: 1.5% to 1.9%)), resulting in a higher overall population-level viremia estimate of 2.1% (95% CI: 1.8% to 2.4%). CONCLUSIONS: Exclusion of residents in new households may modestly bias HIV viremia estimates and some age-specific seroprevalence estimates in the RCCS. Overall, HIV seroprevalence estimates were not significantly affected.

In the era of universal test and treat in Uganda, recent intimate partner violence is not associated with subsequent ART use or viral suppression.

Intimate partner violence (IPV) has been associated with delays throughout the HIV care continuum. This study explored prospective associations between experiences of past-year IPV and two HIV care outcomes in the context of current universal test and treat guidelines using two consecutive rounds of an ongoing HIV surveillance study conducted in the Rakai region of Uganda. Longitudinal logistic regression models examined associations between IPV, use of antiretroviral therapy (ART) and viral load suppression (VS), adjusting for outcome variables at baseline. To address differences in ART retention by IPV, propensity scores were used to create inverse-probability-of-treatment-and-censoring-weighted (IPTCW) models. At baseline, of 1923 women with HIV (WWH), 34.6%, 26.5%, 13.5% reported past-year verbal, physical and sexual IPV; a lower proportion of persons who experienced physical IPV (79.4%) were VS than those who did not (84.3%; p = 0.01). The proportion VS at baseline also significantly differed by exposure to verbal IPV (p = 0.03). However, in adjusted longitudinal models, IPV was not associated with lower odds of ART use or VS at follow-up. Among WWH in the Rakai region, IPV does not appear to be a barrier to subsequent ART use or VS. However, given the prevalence of IPV in this population, interventions are needed.

Nearly half of adults with symptoms of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) did not seek clinical care: A population-based study of treatment-seeking behavior among adults in Rakai, Uganda.

Understanding treatment-seeking behavior is critical to the treatment and control of sexually transmitted infections (STIs), yet current data on STI treatment seeking in low-resource settings is rare. This population-based study aimed to describe STI treatment-seeking behavior and identify factors associated with seeking treatment at a clinic among adults with STI-related symptoms in rural Uganda. The STI prevalence study (STIPS) conducted a survey and STI testing among all consenting adults aged 18-49 in two communities in rural south-central Uganda. Of 1,825 participants, 962 individuals self-reported STI symptoms in the past six months; we present descriptive data on treatment seeking and STI prevalence among these individuals. We used multivariable Poisson regressions with robust variance to determine the sociodemographic and symptom-related factors independently associated with seeking STI treatment at a clinic and assessed the association with previous clinic treatment seeking and current STI diagnosis. Forty-three percent of adults who reported STI-related symptoms in the past six months said they did not seek any treatment. Among those who did, 58% sought treatment at a private clinic, 28% at a government clinic, 9% at a pharmacy/drug store, 3% at a traditional healer, 2% at a market/shop, and 5% at another location. Among both males and females, having multiple STI related symptoms was positively associated with clinic treatment seeking (males = PRR: 1.73, 95%CI: 1.36-2.21; females = PR: 1.41, 95%CI: 1.12-1.78). Approximately one-third of males and females who reported previously seeking clinic treatment for their symptoms were diagnosed with a curable STI at the time of the survey. In this setting, nearly half of adults with STI-related symptoms are not seeking clinical care and many who report having sought treatment for recent STI symptoms have curable STIs. Future studies should explore barriers to care-seeking and strategies to improve STI services.

Age Patterns of HSV-2 Incidence and Prevalence in Two Ugandan Communities: A Catalytic Incidence Model Applied to Population-Based Seroprevalence Data.

BACKGROUND: Herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) is an incurable sexually transmitted infection associated with increased risk of acquiring and transmitting human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). HSV-2 is highly prevalent in sub-Saharan Africa, but population-level estimates of incidence are sparse. METHODS: We measured HSV-2 prevalence from cross-sectional serological data among adults aged 18-49 years in 2 south-central Uganda communities (fishing, inland). We identified risk factors for seropositivity, then inferred age patterns of HSV-2 with a Bayesian catalytic model. RESULTS: HSV-2 prevalence was 53.6% (n = 975/1819; 95% confidence interval, 51.3%-55.9%). Prevalence increased with age, was higher in the fishing community, and among women, reaching 93.6% (95% credible interval, 90.2%-96.6%) by age 49 years. Factors associated with HSV-2 seropositivity included more lifetime sexual partners, HIV positive status, and lower education. HSV-2 incidence peakied at age 18 years for women and 19-20 years for men. HIV prevalence was up to 10-fold higher in HSV-2-positive individuals. CONCLUSIONS: HSV-2 prevalence and incidence were extremely high, with most infections occurring in late adolescence. Interventions against HSV-2, such as future vaccines or therapeutics, must target young populations. Remarkably higher HIV prevalence among HSV-2-positive individuals underscores this population as a priority for HIV prevention.

Dynamics of Pre-Exposure (PrEP) Eligibility Because of Waxing and Waning of HIV Risk in Rakai, Uganda.

BACKGROUND: We conducted a retrospective population-based study to describe longitudinal patterns of prevalence, incidence, discontinuation, resumption, and durability of substantial HIV risk behaviors (SHR) for pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) eligibility. METHODS: The study was conducted among HIV-negative study participants aged 15-49 years who participated in survey rounds of the Rakai Community Cohort Study between August 2011 and June 2018. Substantial HIV risk was defined based on the Uganda national PrEP eligibility as reporting sexual intercourse with >1 partner of unknown HIV status, nonmarital sex without a condom, having genital ulcers, or having transactional sex. Resumption of SHR meant resuming of SHR after stopping SHR, whereas persistence of SHR meant SHR on >1 consecutive visit. We used generalized estimation equations with log-binomial regression models and robust variance to estimate survey-specific prevalence ratios; Generalized estimation equations with modified Poisson regression models and robust variance to estimate incidence ratios for incidence, discontinuation, and resumption of PrEP eligibility. FINDINGS: Incidence of PrEP eligibility increased from 11.4/100 person-years (pys) in the first intersurvey period to 13.9/100 pys (adjusted incidence rate ratios = 1.28; 95%CI = 1.10-1.30) and declined to 12.6/100 pys (adjusted incidence rate ratios = 1.06; 95%CI = 0.98-1.15) in the second and third intersurvey periods, respectively. Discontinuation rates of SHR for PrEP eligibility were stable (ranging 34.9/100 pys-37.3/100 pys; P = 0.207), whereas resumption reduced from 25.0/100 pys to 14.5/100 pys ( P < 0.001). PrEP eligibility episodes lasted a median time of 20 months (IQR = 10-51). INTERPRETATION: Pre-exposure prophylaxis use should be tailored to the dynamic nature of PrEP eligibility. Preventive-effective adherence should be adopted for assessment of attrition in PrEP programs.

Longitudinal population-level HIV epidemiologic and genomic surveillance highlights growing gender disparity of HIV transmission in Uganda.

HIV incidence in eastern and southern Africa has historically been concentrated among girls and women aged 15-24 years. As new cases decline with HIV interventions, population-level infection dynamics may shift by age and gender. Here, we integrated population-based surveillance of 38,749 participants in the Rakai Community Cohort Study and longitudinal deep sequence viral phylogenetics to assess how HIV incidence and population groups driving transmission have changed from 2003 to 2018 in Uganda. We observed 1,117 individuals in the incidence cohort and 1,978 individuals in the transmission cohort. HIV viral suppression increased more rapidly in women than men, however incidence declined more slowly in women than men. We found that age-specific transmission flows shifted, while HIV transmission to girls and women (aged 15-24 years) from older men declined by about one third, transmission to women (aged 25-34 years) from men that were 0-6 years older increased by half in 2003 to 2018. Based on changes in transmission flows, we estimated that closing the gender gap in viral suppression could have reduced HIV incidence in women by half in 2018. This study suggests that HIV programs to increase HIV suppression in men are critical to reduce incidence in women, close gender gaps in infection burden and improve men's health in Africa.

Civil society and medical product access in Africa: Lessons from COVID-19.

Understanding health as a human right creates a legal obligation on countries to ensure access to timely, acceptable, and affordable health care. We highlight the importance of a meaningful role for civil society in improving access to well-regulated quality medical products in Africa; to support and be part of a regional social contract approach following the access issues that have been particularly evident during the COVID-19 pandemic. We argue that African communities have a clear participatory role as important stakeholders in the regulatory lifecycle. Solidarity is important for a cohesive approach as formal government healthcare infrastructure may be minimal for some countries, with little training of communities available for disease management and insufficient money to fund people to organise and deliver health care. Some of the issues for civil society engagement with multi-stakeholders, and possible mitigating strategies, are tabulated to initiate discussion on facilitators and concerns of governments and other stakeholders for meaningful participation by patients, communities and civil society within a regional regulatory lifecycle approach. Solidarity is called for to address issues of equity, ethics and morality, stigmatisation and mutual empowerment - to sustainably support the region and national governments to develop greater self-sufficiency throughout the regulatory lifecycle. By creating a participatory space, patients, communities and civil society can be invited in with clear missions and supported by well-defined guidance to create a true sense of solidarity and social cohesion. Strong leadership coupled with the political will to share responsibilities in all aspects of this work is key.