Projecting the Future Registered Nurse Workforce After the COVID-19 Pandemic.

Importance: Health care delivery systems rely on a well-prepared and adequately sized registered nurse (RN) workforce. The US RN workforce decreased by more than 100 000 in 2021 during the COVID-19 pandemic-a far greater single-year drop than observed over the past 4 decades. The implication for the longer-term growth of the RN workforce is unknown. Objective: To describe recent trends in RN employment through 2023 and forecast the growth of the RN workforce through 2035. Design, Setting, and Participants: Descriptive analysis of recent trends since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in RN employment using data from the US Bureau of the Census Current Population Survey and including employed RNs aged 23 to 69 years from 1982 through 2023, and retrospective cohort analysis of employment trends by birth year and age to project the age distribution and employment of RNs through 2035. Main Outcome and Measures: Annual full-time equivalent (FTE) employment of RNs by age, demographics, and sector of employment; forecast of RN workforce by age through 2035. Results: The final sample included 455 085 RN respondents aged 23 to 69 years. After a sharp decline in 2021, RN employment recovered, and the total number of FTE RNs in 2022 and 2023 was 6% higher than in 2019 (3.35 million vs 3.16 million, respectively). Using data on employment, education, and population through 2022, the size of the RN workforce was projected to increase by roughly 1.2 million FTEs to 4.56 million by 2035, close to prepandemic forecasts. Growth will be driven primarily by RNs aged 35 to 49 years, who are projected to compose nearly half (47%) of the RN workforce in 2035, up from 38% in 2022. Conclusions and Relevance: In this study, the rebound in the total size of the US RN workforce during 2022 and 2023 indicates that the earlier drop in RN employment during the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic was likely transitory. Updated forecasts of the future RN workforce are very close to those made before the pandemic.

Marriage, Children, and Sex-Based Differences in Physician Hours and Income.

Importance: A better understanding of the association between family structure and sex gaps in physician earnings and hours worked over the life cycle is needed to advance policies addressing persistent sex disparities. Objective: To investigate differences in earnings and hours worked for male and female physicians at various ages and family status. Design, Setting, and Participants: This retrospective, cross-sectional study used data on physicians aged 25 to 64 years responding to the American Community Survey between 2005 and 2019. Exposures: Earned income and work hours. Main Outcomes and Measures: Outcomes included annual earned income, usual hours worked per week, and earnings per hour worked. Gaps in earnings and hours by sex were calculated by family status and physician age and, in some analyses, adjusted for demographic characteristics and year of survey. Data analyses were conducted between 2019 and 2022. Results: The sample included 95 435 physicians (35.8% female, 64.2% male, 19.8% Asian, 4.8% Black, 5.9% Hispanic, 67.3% White, and 2.2% other race or ethnicity) with a mean (SD) age of 44.4 (10.4) years. Relative to male physicians, female physicians were more likely to be single (18.8% vs 11.2%) and less likely to have children (53.3% vs 58.2%). Male-female earnings gaps grew with age and, when accumulated from age 25 to 64 years, were approximately $1.6 million for single physicians, $2.5 million for married physicians without children, and $3.1 million for physicians with children. Gaps in earnings per hour did not vary by family structure, with male physicians earning between 21.4% and 23.9% more per hour than female physicians. The male-female gap in hours worked was 0.6% for single physicians, 7.0% for married physicians without children, and 17.5% for physicians with children. Conclusions and Relevance: In this cross-sectional study of US physicians, marriage and children were associated with a greater earnings penalty for female physicians, primarily due to fewer hours worked relative to men. Addressing the barriers that lead to women working fewer hours could contribute to a reduction in the male-female earnings gap while helping to expand the effective physician workforce.

Characteristics of rural registered nurses and the implications for workforce policy.

PURPOSE: Rural registered nurses (RNs) play an integral role in providing care for an underserved population with worse health outcomes than urban counterparts. However, little information is available on the profile of this workforce, which is necessary to understand the capacity of these nurses to provide quality and demanded care presently and in the future. METHODS: We utilize data from the American Community Survey to provide a contemporary analysis on the supply of rural RNs in the United States. FINDINGS: While the number of physicians serving rural populations has decreased in recent years, and rural nurse practitioners (NPs) remain in short supply, rural RNs have steadily grown in numbers at a rate comparable to urban RNs. Rural RNs are markedly less diverse than the populations they serve and only half of rural RNs had a bachelor's degree or higher compared to over 70% for urban RNs. In their supply, young rural nurses appear on pace with urban nurses to adequately replace older nurses and continue to grow the workforce, based on data through 2019. CONCLUSIONS: The rural RN workforce is projected to steadily grow amidst declining rural physicians and limited rural NPs. The burgeoning investments in the rural health workforce present opportunities to help diversify, increase educational access, and further rural readiness for rural RNs moving forward.

Nurse Employment During The First Fifteen Months Of The COVID-19 Pandemic.

Analysis of Current Population Survey data suggests a tightening labor market for registered nurses, licensed practical nurses, and nursing assistants, marked by falling employment and rising wages through June 2021. Unemployment rates remain higher in nonhospital settings and among registered nurses and nursing assistants who are members of racial and ethnic minority groups.

IDENTIFYING SOURCES OF INEFFICIENCY IN HEALTHCARE.

In medicine, the reasons for variation in treatment rates across hospitals serving similar patients are not well understood. Some interpret this variation as unwarranted, and push standardization of care as a way of reducing allocative inefficiency. An alternative interpretation is that hospitals with greater expertise in a treatment use it more because of their comparative advantage, suggesting that standardization is misguided. A simple economic model provides an empirical framework to separate these explanations. Estimating this model with data for heart attack patients, we find evidence of substantial variation across hospitals in both allocative inefficiency and comparative advantage, with most hospitals overusing treatment in part because of incorrect beliefs about their comparative advantage. A stylized welfare-calculation suggests that eliminating allocative inefficiency would increase the total benefits from the treatment that we study by 44%.

Measuring Parent Satisfaction With Care in Neonatal Intensive Care Units: The EMPATHIC-NICU-USA Questionnaire.

Background: Neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) patient satisfaction is measured as parent satisfaction. Parents are critical to the family-centered care model and can evaluate care. Several EMpowerment of PArents in THe Intensive Care (EMPATHIC) instruments were developed in the Netherlands to measure parent satisfaction with neonatal and pediatric intensive care. EMPATHIC instruments comprise five domains and a total score: information, care and treatment, organization, parental participation, and professional attitude. To our knowledge, the EMPATHIC has not been adapted for USA use. Objectives: (1) To select a relevant EMPATHIC instrument for our study. (2) To expand the content reflecting the role of nurses and the cultural heterogeneity of USA NICU infants. (3) To adapt the selected EMPATHIC instrument to USA English. (4) To establish psychometric properties of the linguistically adapted instrument. (5) To evaluate instrument performance with additional items. Methods: The EMPATHIC-30 was selected based on shortest length, high overlap with neonatal EMPATHIC-N, and availability of a validated Spanish-language version. Six items from the EMPATHIC-N were added, two of which were split into separate items, resulting in the EMPATHIC-38. A neonatal nurse practitioner adapted wording to USA English. Cognitive debriefing was performed with eight NICU parents to evaluate adapted wording. Parent survey data from a study about missed nursing care and NICU parent satisfaction were utilized. Internal consistency of the five domains and overall score was measured by Cronbach's alpha. Spearman's rank correlations were computed for domains and overall score with four validity measures. Differential validity was determined using 13 parent demographic subgroups. Results: Data were from 282 parents. Parent race was predominantly White (61%) or Black (22%). One fifth were Hispanic. The adapted wording was satisfactory. Four of the five EMPATHIC-30 and EMPATHIC-38 domains had Cronbach alphas at or above 0.70, indicating acceptable reliability. Correlations between the domain, total scores, and validity indicators ranged from 0.30 to 0.57, indicating positive, moderate associations. Results were replicated in demographic subgroups. Reliability and validity of the three domains with additional items were better than or equivalent to values for the original. Conclusion: The linguistically adapted EMPATHIC-30-NICU-USA and the expanded EMPATHIC-38-NICU-USA exhibit satisfactory psychometric properties and are suitable for use in USA NICUs.

Summarizing causal differences in survival curves in the presence of unmeasured confounding.

Proportional hazard Cox regression models are frequently used to analyze the impact of different factors on time-to-event outcomes. Most practitioners are familiar with and interpret research results in terms of hazard ratios. Direct differences in survival curves are, however, easier to understand for the general population of users and to visualize graphically. Analyzing the difference among the survival curves for the population at risk allows easy interpretation of the impact of a therapy over the follow-up. When the available information is obtained from observational studies, the observed results are potentially subject to a plethora of measured and unmeasured confounders. Although there are procedures to adjust survival curves for measured covariates, the case of unmeasured confounders has not yet been considered in the literature. In this article we provide a semi-parametric procedure for adjusting survival curves for measured and unmeasured confounders. The method augments our novel instrumental variable estimation method for survival time data in the presence of unmeasured confounding with a procedure for mapping estimates onto the survival probability and the expected survival time scales.

Parent Satisfaction With Care and Treatment Relates to Missed Nursing Care in Neonatal Intensive Care Units.

Background: The satisfaction of parents of infants in neonatal intensive care is important to parent-infant bonding and parents' ability to care for their baby, including after discharge. Given the principal caregiver role of nurses in this setting, parent satisfaction is influenced by high quality nursing care. Nursing care that is required but missed, such as counseling and support, might influence parent satisfaction. How missed nursing care relates to parent satisfaction is unknown. Objective: To describe the satisfaction of parents of infants in neonatal intensive care and to determine how satisfaction relates to missed nursing care in a sample of USA nursing units. Methods: The design was cross-sectional and correlational. Thirty neonatal intensive care units that participate in the National Database of Nursing Quality Indicators were recruited. To maximize sample variation in missed care, the highest and lowest quartile hospitals on missed nursing care, measured by nurse survey, were eligible. Ten parents of infants who were to be discharged were recruited from each site to complete a survey. Parent satisfaction was measured by the EMPATHIC-38 instrument, comprising five subscales: information, care and treatment, organization, parental participation, and professional attitude, and a total satisfaction score. Multivariate regression models were estimated. Results: Parent satisfaction was high (5.70 out of 6.00). The prevalence of missed care was 25 and 51% for low and high missed care units, respectively, and 40% for all units. On average, nurses missed 1.06 care activities; in the low and high missed care units the averages were 0.46 and 1.32. Over 10% of nurses missed activities that involved the parent, e.g., teaching, helping breastfeeding mothers, and preparing families for discharge. One standard deviation decrease in missed care activities at the unit level was associated with a 0.08-point increase in parent satisfaction with care and treatment (p = 0.01). Conclusion: Parents in USA neonatal intensive care units are highly satisfied. Neonatal intensive care nurses routinely miss care. Parent satisfaction with care and treatment is related to missed nursing care. Nursing care that is missed relates primarily to the care of the baby by the parents, which could have long term health and developmental consequences.

Implications Of The Rapid Growth Of The Nurse Practitioner Workforce In The US.

Concerns about physician shortages have led policy makers in the US public and private sectors to advocate for the greater use of nurse practitioners (NPs). We examined recent changes in demographic, employment, and earnings characteristics of NPs and the implications of those changes. In the period 2010-17 the number of NPs in the US more than doubled from approximately 91,000 to 190,000. This growth occurred in every US region and was driven by the rapid expansion of education programs that attracted nurses in the Millennial generation. Employment was concentrated in hospitals, physician offices, and outpatient care centers, and inflation-adjusted earnings grew by 5.5 percent over this period. The pronounced growth in the number of NPs has reduced the size of the registered nurse (RN) workforce by up to 80,000 nationwide. In the future, hospitals must innovate and test creative ideas to replace RNs who have left their positions to become NPs, and educators must be alert for signs of falling earnings that may signal the excess production of NPs.

Association of Patient Acuity and Missed Nursing Care in U.S. Neonatal Intensive Care Units.

The health outcomes of infants in neonatal intensive care units (NICUs) may be jeopardized when required nursing care is missed. This correlational study of missed care in a U.S. NICU sample adds national scope and an important explanatory variable, patient acuity. Using 2016 NICU registered nurse survey responses (N = 5,861) from the National Database of Nursing Quality Indicators, we found that 36% of nurses missed one or more care activities on the past shift. Missed care prevalence varied widely across units. Nurses with higher workloads, higher acuity assignments, or in poor work environments were more likely to miss care. The most common activities missed involved patient comfort and counseling and parent education. Workloads have increased and work environments have deteriorated compared with 8 years ago. Nurses' assignments should account for patient acuity. NICU nurse staffing and work environments warrant attention to reduce missed care and promote optimal infant and family outcomes.

Adjusting for bias introduced by instrumental variable estimation in the Cox proportional hazards model.

Instrumental variable (IV) methods are widely used for estimating average treatment effects in the presence of unmeasured confounders. However, the capability of existing IV procedures, and most notably the two-stage residual inclusion (2SRI) algorithm recommended for use in non-linear contexts, to account for unmeasured confounders in the Cox proportional hazard model is unclear. We show that instrumenting an endogenous treatment induces an unmeasured covariate, referred to as an individual frailty in survival analysis parlance, which if not accounted for leads to bias. We propose a new procedure that augments 2SRI with an individual frailty and prove that it is consistent under certain conditions. The finite sample-size behavior is studied across a broad set of conditions via Monte Carlo simulations. Finally, the proposed methodology is used to estimate the average effect of carotid endarterectomy versus carotid stenting on the mortality of patients suffering from carotid artery disease. Results suggest that the 2SRI-frailty estimator generally reduces the bias of both point and interval estimators compared to traditional 2SRI.

Comparing Long-term Mortality After Carotid Endarterectomy vs Carotid Stenting Using a Novel Instrumental Variable Method for Risk Adjustment in Observational Time-to-Event Data.

Importance: Choosing between competing treatment options is difficult for patients and clinicians when results from randomized and observational studies are discordant. Observational real-world studies yield more generalizable evidence for decision making than randomized clinical trials, but unmeasured confounding, especially in time-to-event analyses, can limit validity. Objectives: To compare long-term survival after carotid endarterectomy (CEA) and carotid artery stenting (CAS) in real-world practice using a novel instrumental variable method designed for time-to-event outcomes, and to compare the results with traditional risk-adjustment models used in observational research for survival analyses. Design, Setting, and Participants: A multicenter cohort study was performed. The Vascular Quality Initiative, an observational quality improvement registry, was used to compare long-term mortality after CEA vs CAS. The study included 86 017 patients who underwent CEA (n = 73 312) or CAS (n = 12 705) between January 1, 2003, and December 31, 2016. Patients were followed up for long-term mortality assessment by linking the registry data to Medicare claims. Medicare claims data were available through September 31, 2015. Exposure: Procedure type (CEA vs CAS). Main Outcomes and Measures: The hazard ratios (HRs) of all-cause mortality using unadjusted, adjusted, propensity-matched, and instrumental variable methods were examined. The instrumental variable was the proportion of CEA among the total carotid procedures (endarterectomy and stenting) performed at each hospital in the 12 months before each patient's index operation and therefore varies over the study period. Results: Participants who underwent CEA had a mean (SD) age of 70.3 (9.4) years compared with 69.1 (10.4) years for CAS, and most were men (44 191 [60.4%] for CEA and 8117 [63.9%] for CAS). The observed 5-year mortality was 12.8% (95% CI, 12.5%-13.2%) for CEA and 17.0% (95% CI, 16.0%-18.1%) for CAS. The unadjusted HR of mortality for CEA vs CAS was 0.67 (95% CI, 0.64-0.71), and Cox-adjusted and propensity-matched HRs were similar (0.69; 95% CI, 0.65-0.74 and 0.71; 95% CI, 0.65-0.77, respectively). These findings are comparable with published observational studies of CEA vs CAS. However, the association between CEA and mortality was more modest when estimated by instrumental variable analysis (HR, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.70-0.98), a finding similar to data reported in randomized clinical trials. Conclusions and Relevance: The study found a survival advantage associated with CEA over CAS in unadjusted and Cox-adjusted analyses. However, this finding was more modest when using an instrumental variable method designed for time-to-event outcomes for risk adjustment. The instrumental variable-based results were more similar to findings from randomized clinical trials, suggesting this method may provide less biased estimates of time-dependent outcomes in observational analyses.

Association Between the Growth of Accountable Care Organizations and Physician Work Hours and Self-employment.

Importance: The share of the population covered by accountable care organizations (ACOs) is growing, but the association between this increase and physician employment is unknown. Objective: To investigate the association between the growth of ACOs and changes in physician work hours, probability of being self-employed, and probability of working in a hospital. Design, Setting, and Participants: A fixed-effects design was used in this cross-sectional study to compare changes in physician employment in hospital referral regions with high vs low ACO growth. A nationally representative 1% sample of all working US physicians obtained annually from 2011 through 2015 from the American Community Survey (N = 49 582) was included. Data analysis was conducted from March 28, 2017, to April 10, 2018. Main Outcomes and Measures: Physician hours worked per week, probability of being self-employed, and probability of working in a hospital. Results: Of the 49 582 physicians included in the study, 63.5% were men; the mean (SD) age of sampled physicians was 46.01 (11.59) years. In 2011, sampled physicians worked a mean (SD) of 52.2 (16.1) hours per week, 24.43% were self-employed, and 42.03% worked in a hospital. A 10-percentage point increase in ACO enrollment in a hospital referral region was associated with a statistically significant reduction of 0.82 (95% CI, -1.52 to -0.13; P = .02) work hours in men and a decrease of 2% (95% CI, -3.8% to -0.1%; P = .04) in the probability of all physicians being self-employed. The association with self-employment was strongest (-5.0%; 95% CI, -8.7% to -1.4%; P = .006) in physicians aged 50 to 69 years, who were also more likely (4.0%; 95% CI, 1.0% to 6.9%; P = .009) to work in a hospital. Conclusions and Relevance: The growth of ACOs within hospital referral regions appears to be associated with a reduction in hours of work and self-employment among physicians. These results suggest that ACOs may affect physician employment patterns.

Millennials Almost Twice As Likely To Be Registered Nurses As Baby Boomers Were.

Baby-boomer registered nurses (RNs), the largest segment of the RN workforce from 1981 to 2012, are now retiring. This would have led to nurse shortages but for the surprising embrace of the profession by millennials-who are entering the nurse workforce at nearly double the rate of the boomers. Still, the boomers' retirement will reduce growth in the size of the RN workforce to 1.3 percent per year for the period 2015-30.

How fast will the registered nurse workforce grow through 2030? Projections in nine regions of the country.

BACKGROUND: After an unprecedented increase in nursing school enrollment and graduates in the past 10 years, projected shortages of nurses have been erased at a national level. However, nursing markets are local, and an uneven distribution of health care providers of all types is a longstanding feature of health care in the United States. PURPOSE: The purpose of this study was to understand how the outlook for future registered nurse (RN) supply varies regionally across the United States. METHODS: We apply our nursing supply model to the nine U.S. Census Divisions to produce separate supply forecasts for each region. DISCUSSION: We find dramatic differences in expected future growth of the nursing workforce across U.S. regions. These range from zero expected growth in the number of RNs per capita in New England and in the Pacific regions between 2015 and 2030 to 40% growth in the East South Central region (Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky) and in the West South Central region (Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Louisiana). CONCLUSION: Assuming growth in the demand for RNs per population, some regions of the United States are expected to face shortfalls in their nursing workforce if recent trends do not change.

Recent Changes in the Number of Nurses Graduating from Undergraduate and Graduate Programs.

Since the 1970s, a number of initiatives have attempted to increase the proportion of nursing graduates with a baccalaureate degree, but with little national effect. Now market forces, health reforms, and an Institute of Medicine report (2011) have combined to transform the educational composition of the nursing workforce. Today, there are considerably more graduates of baccalaureate nursing programs than associate degree programs. The educational transformation of the nursing workforce is not limited to baccalaureate education but includes the rapidly increasing numbers of registered nurses who have earned graduate degrees. These changes in nursing education are increasing the readiness of nursing professionals to capitalize on new opportunities, overcome challenges, and take on new roles and responsibilities as the nation's health care delivery and payments systems evolve in coming years.