RESUMO
OBJECTIVE: To estimate the potential effect of the acceleration of administration of the first dose of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine from 2 months to 6 weeks of age. DESIGN: Prediction model using data from a retrospective cohort study. SETTING: Published data from 8 states that participated in Active Bacterial Core Surveillance of the Emerging Infections Program Network for pneumococcus before pneumococcal conjugate vaccine introduction (July 1, 1997- June 30, 2000). PARTICIPANTS: A total of 759 739 live births under surveillance. Intervention Estimating the potential benefit of administration of the first dose of the pneumococcal conjugate vaccine at 6 weeks of age instead of 2 months of age. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Estimation of reduction in the rate of invasive pneumococcal disease in infants 61 to 90 days of age. RESULTS: The estimated direct effect of the acceleration of administration of the first dose of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine from 2 months to 6 weeks of age when this vaccine was first introduced could have reduced the burden of invasive pneumococcal disease in infants 61 to 90 days of age by 39.9%, 56.0%, and 72.1% for respective vaccine efficacies of 50%, 70%, and 90%. This translates into preventing an estimated 73, 103, and 133 cases of invasive pneumococcal disease per year among approximately 4 112 052 live births in the United States. CONCLUSIONS: The acceleration of administration of the pneumococcal conjugate vaccine from 2 months to 6 weeks of age could reduce the burden of invasive pneumococcal disease among infants. This observation may be important when a new conjugate vaccine becomes available, particularly among populations with prevalent invasive pneumococcal disease from a serotype included in the new vaccine.