Risk of loco-regional recurrence and distant metastases of patients with invasive breast cancer up to ten years after diagnosis - results from a registry-based study from Germany.

BACKGROUND: Population-based estimates of the long-term risk of loco-regional recurrence and distant metastases of breast cancer (BRC) patients are scant, as most published studies used hospital-based cohorts or participants of clinical trials. This work aims to extend available knowledge by providing population-based long-term estimates of the cumulative risk of BRC recurrence up to 10 years after diagnosis. METHODS: Data from the population-based Saarland Cancer Registry were used and included 9359 female patients with primary invasive BRC diagnosed between 1999 and 2009. Estimates of the cumulative incidence (CI) of BRC recurrence were derived for patients who had received local surgery with free resection margins by type of recurrence and stratified by age, tumor characteristics and major treatment options, taking into account mortality from any cause as a competing risk. RESULTS: The 10-year CI of BRC recurrence was 16%. For loco-regional recurrence and distant metastases alone it was 8 and 11%, respectively. The estimates showed substantial variation and were particularly increased if tumors were advanced (T1/2N+ 23%, T3/4N0 24%, T3/4N+ 34%), of high grade (23%), or of 'HER2/neu positive' (28%) or 'triple negative' subtype (23%), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The derived estimates reflect the risk of 'real world' patients and may therefore extend available knowledge. These data are thus of great relevance for clinicians, their patients and researchers. The study likewise demonstrated the usefulness of cancer registries for a population-based monitoring of the effectiveness of cancer care in terms of disease recurrence as a major treatment related outcome measure.

Mendelian randomization analysis of C-reactive protein on colorectal cancer risk.

BACKGROUND: Chronic inflammation is a risk factor for colorectal cancer (CRC). Circulating C-reactive protein (CRP) is also moderately associated with CRC risk. However, observational studies are susceptible to unmeasured confounding or reverse causality. Using genetic risk variants as instrumental variables, we investigated the causal relationship between genetically elevated CRP concentration and CRC risk, using a Mendelian randomization approach. METHODS: Individual-level data from 30 480 CRC cases and 22 844 controls from 33 participating studies in three international consortia were used: the Genetics and Epidemiology of Colorectal Cancer Consortium (GECCO), the Colorectal Transdisciplinary Study (CORECT) and the Colon Cancer Family Registry (CCFR). As instrumental variables, we included 19 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) previously associated with CRP concentration. The SNP-CRC associations were estimated using a logistic regression model adjusted for age, sex, principal components and genotyping phases. An inverse-variance weighted method was applied to estimate the causal effect of CRP on CRC risk. RESULTS: Among the 19 CRP-associated SNPs, rs1260326 and rs6734238 were significantly associated with CRC risk (P = 7.5 × 10-4, and P = 0.003, respectively). A genetically predicted one-unit increase in the log-transformed CRP concentrations (mg/l) was not associated with increased risk of CRC [odds ratio (OR) = 1.04; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.97, 1.12; P = 0.256). No evidence of association was observed in subgroup analyses stratified by other risk factors. CONCLUSIONS: In spite of adequate statistical power to detect moderate association, we found genetically elevated CRP concentration was not associated with increased risk of CRC among individuals of European ancestry. Our findings suggested that circulating CRP is unlikely to be a causal factor in CRC development.

Strong associations of a healthy lifestyle with all stages of colorectal carcinogenesis: Results from a large cohort of participants of screening colonoscopy.

The risk of developing colorectal cancer (CRC) is associated with a wide range of dietary and lifestyle factors. The individual contribution of single modifiable factors, such as alcohol consumption, physical activity, smoking, body mass index (BMI) or dietary components, to the development of CRC has been investigated extensively, but evidence on their combined effect at various stages of colorectal carcinogenesis is sparse. The aim of our study was to analyze the association of a healthy lifestyle pattern with prevalence of early and advanced colorectal neoplasms. A total of 13,600 participants of screening colonoscopy in Saarland/Germany (mean age 62.9 years) who were enrolled in the KolosSal study (Effektivität der Früherkennungs-Koloskopie: eine Saarland-weite Studie) from 2005 until 2013 were included in this cross-sectional analysis. Dietary and lifestyle data were collected and colonoscopy results were extracted from physicians' reports. The association of an a priori defined healthy lifestyle score-including dietary intake, alcohol consumption, physical activity, smoking and BMI-with early and advanced colorectal neoplasms was assessed by multiple logistic regression analyses with comprehensive adjustment for potential confounders. Strong inverse dose-response relationships were observed between an overall healthier lifestyle pattern and presence of advanced colorectal neoplasms, nonadvanced adenomas and hyperplastic polyps (p value <0.0001 in all cases), with adjusted odds ratios (95% CI) for the highest compared to the lowest category of the healthy lifestyle score of 0.41 (0.30-0.56), 0.42 (0.33-0.54) and 0.39 (0.29-0.54) respectively. A healthy lifestyle is strongly associated with lower risk of all stages of colorectal neoplasms.

Utilization and determinants of follow-up colonoscopies within 6 years after screening colonoscopy: Prospective cohort study.

Previous studies have reported that repeat colonoscopies were often not conducted in the recommended time interval after screening colonoscopy. We prospectively followed participants of screening colonoscopy from Germany for 6 years to investigate utilization and determinants of repeat colonoscopies. In a longitudinal study on the effectiveness of screening colonoscopy in the state of Saarland (Germany), participants who had a screening colonoscopy between 2005 and 2007 were contacted by mail 6 years after screening and requested to fill in a standardized questionnaire on utilization of repeat colonoscopies. For all colonoscopies reported, colonoscopy and histology reports were requested from the physician(s). Of 6,407 screening participants, 2,212 (35%) have utilized another colonoscopy. Among participants with negative findings at screening (no adenomas), 962 (22%) had a subsequent colonoscopy within 6 years from screening, accounting for 43% of all patients with a repeat colonoscopy. Family history of CRC and detection of hyperplastic polyps were found to be determinants of higher repeat colonoscopy use. As many as 44% of the participants with low-risk adenomas (N = 509) and 39% with high-risk adenomas (N = 290) at screening did not utilize surveillance colonoscopy within 6 years. Utilization was better with higher school education, prior cancer screening participation and if high-risk adenomas were detected, lower among current smokers and lowest among participants ≥70 years. New strategies will be required considering determinants of adherence to avoid unnecessary colonoscopies and to improve utilization of surveillance according to recommended time intervals among patients at higher risk of CRC in the future.

Etiology of hormone receptor positive breast cancer differs by levels of histologic grade and proliferation.

Limited epidemiological evidence suggests that the etiology of hormone receptor positive (HR+) breast cancer may differ by levels of histologic grade and proliferation. We pooled risk factor and pathology data on 5,905 HR+ breast cancer cases and 26,281 controls from 11 epidemiological studies. Proliferation was determined by centralized automated measures of KI67 in tissue microarrays. Odds ratios (OR), 95% confidence intervals (CI) and p-values for case-case and case-control comparisons for risk factors in relation to levels of grade and quartiles (Q1-Q4) of KI67 were estimated using polytomous logistic regression models. Case-case comparisons showed associations between nulliparity and high KI67 [OR (95% CI) for Q4 vs. Q1 = 1.54 (1.22, 1.95)]; obesity and high grade [grade 3 vs. 1 = 1.68 (1.31, 2.16)] and current use of combined hormone therapy (HT) and low grade [grade 3 vs. 1 = 0.27 (0.16, 0.44)] tumors. In case-control comparisons, nulliparity was associated with elevated risk of tumors with high but not low levels of proliferation [1.43 (1.14, 1.81) for KI67 Q4 vs. 0.83 (0.60, 1.14) for KI67 Q1]; obesity among women ≥50 years with high but not low grade tumors [1.55 (1.17, 2.06) for grade 3 vs. 0.88 (0.66, 1.16) for grade 1] and HT with low but not high grade tumors [3.07 (2.22, 4.23) for grade 1 vs. 0.85 (0.55, 1.30) for grade 3]. Menarcheal age and family history were similarly associated with HR+ tumors of different grade or KI67 levels. These findings provide insights into the etiologic heterogeneity of HR+ tumors.

Dietary patterns and risk of advanced colorectal neoplasms: A large population based screening study in Germany.

Specific components of the diet such as red and processed meat have been associated with the risk of developing colorectal cancer. However, evidence on the association of dietary patterns with colorectal neoplasms is sparse. The aim of this study was to analyze the association of dietary patterns with prevalence of advanced colorectal neoplasms among older adults in Germany. A cross-sectional study was conducted among participants of screening colonoscopy in Saarland, Germany, who were enrolled in the KolosSal study (Effektivität der Früherkennungs-Koloskopie: eine Saarland-weite Studie) from 2005 to 2013. Information on diet and lifestyle factors was obtained through questionnaires and colonoscopy results were extracted from physicians' reports. Associations of a priori defined dietary patterns (vegetarian or adapted versions of the Healthy Eating Index [HEI] and the Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension [DASH] index) with the risk of advanced colorectal neoplasms were assessed by multiple logistic regression analyses with comprehensive adjustment for potential confounders. A total of 14,309 participants were included (1561 with advanced colorectal neoplasms). Healthier eating behavior was associated with lower prevalence of advanced colorectal neoplasms in a dose-response manner. Adjusted odds ratios (95% confidence intervals) comparing the highest with the lowest categories of adapted HEI and DASH were 0.61 (0.50, 0.76) and 0.70 (0.55, 0.89), respectively. No significant associations were observed for a vegetarian eating pattern (adjusted OR 0.80 (0.55, 1.17)). Healthy dietary patterns, as described by a high HEI or DASH score, but not a vegetarian diet alone, are associated with reduced risk of advanced colorectal neoplasms.

Complication Rates in Colonoscopy Screening for Cancer.

BACKGROUND: Screening colonoscopy has been offered in Germany since 2002. Complications during colonoscopy were reported to be rare, but data on potential complications after colonoscopy are sparse. We aimed to comprehensively assess the frequency of complications arising during or within four weeks of screening colonoscopy. METHODS: Residents of the German federal state of Saarland without a history of colorectal cancer and without previous polypectomy who underwent a screening colonoscopy between 2010 and 2013 were included. A follow-up was conducted three months after the screening colonoscopy, including participant questionnaires and subsequent validation of self-reported complications arising during or within four weeks of screening colonoscopy, by reviewing colonoscopy records and contacting the treating physicians. A comprehensive mortality follow-up was conducted for non-responders. RESULTS: We recruited a total of 5527 participants from 26 practices (median age 61 years, 52% women). 5252 (95%) fully completed the questionnaire on complications and met the inclusion criteria for analysis. Among these participants, 16 cases of physician-confirmed bleeding (0.30%) and four cases of physician-confirmed perforation (0.08%) occurred during or within four weeks of colonoscopy. According to consistent reports from patients and physicians, bleeding and perforation led to hospitalization in 5 (0.095%) and 2 (0.04%) cases, respectively. Three participants died within three months of colo - noscopy. In none of these cases was the cause of death related to colonoscopy. CONCLUSION: We found the risk of complications of screening colonoscopy to be low, even when taking into account a potential delay of up to four weeks.

Meat intake and risk of colorectal polyps: results from a large population-based screening study in Germany.

Background: Red and processed meats have been shown to be associated with colorectal adenomas in many, but not all, studies, and the association according to the type of colorectal adenoma or the location in the colorectum is unclear.Objectives: We investigated the association of meat intake in relation to colorectal polyps and further investigated the association according to histologic subtypes and subsites in a large population-based screening study in Germany.Design: In this cross-sectional study, 15,950 participants aged ≥55 y underwent a screening colonoscopy. We calculated prevalence ratios (PRs) and 95% CIs for associations between meat intake and the most-advanced findings from a colonoscopy with the use of log binomial regression.Results: Overall, 3340 participants (20.4%) had nonadvanced adenomas, 1643 participants (10.0%) had advanced adenomas, and 189 participants (1.2%) had colorectal cancer. We observed no statistically significant association between red or processed meat consumption and the prevalence of any adenomas or advanced adenomas [highest compared with lowest: red meat, PR: 1.07 (95% CI: 0.83, 1.37); processed meat, PR: 1.11 (95% CI: 0.91, 1.36)]. In site-specific analyses, although no dose-response relation was observed, processed meat was positively associated with the prevalence of advanced adenomas in the rectum only (multiple times per day compared with <1 time/wk, PR: 1.87; 95% CI: 1.19, 2.95). Poultry intake was not associated with any outcome.Conclusions: On the basis of this large colonoscopy-based study, there are no significant associations between red or processed meat intake and the prevalence of any adenomas or advanced adenomas. However, processed meat may be positively associated with the prevalence of advanced adenomas in the rectum, but prospective cohort studies are needed to further clarify this association. There is no association between poultry consumption and the prevalence of colorectal polyps in this study.

Screening for Bowel Cancer: Increasing Participation via Personal Invitation.

BACKGROUND: Participation rates in bowel cancer screening programs in Germany continue to be low. In a model project, a logistically simple procedure for inviting patients to participate was tested as a means of increasing participation. METHODS: A randomized trial was performed involving persons residing in the German federal state of Saarland who had either their 50th or their 55th birthday in the year beginning on 1 April 2012 (18 560 and 16 824 persons, respectively). The 50-year-olds received a written invitation to undergo a test for blood in the stool, either with or without a stool test attached, or else no invitation at all. The 55-year-olds received either an invitation to undergo colonoscopy or no invitation. Participation rates within one year were determined from billing data of the Saarland Association of Statutory Health. Insurance Physicians. The trial was registered in the German Registry of Clinical Trials, no. DRKS00006098. RESULTS: A written invitation to undergo testing of the stool for blood, together with an accompanying test, increased the participation rate within one year by 62% (from 15% to 25%, p <0.001, especially among men (+158% vs. +39% for women). The participation rate was higher in general among women than among men (33% vs. 17%). On the other hand, a written invitation with no accompanying test did not increase the participation rate. A written invitation to undergo colonoscopic screening increased the participation rate within one year by 32% (5.9% vs 4.4%, p <0.001). CONCLUSION: Targeted invitations can markedly increase participation rates in cancer screening. Written invitations to undergo stool testing for blood should be accompanied by an actual test. Further trials should also include information about the number of adenomas and carcinomas detected by screening.

Prognostic value of automated KI67 scoring in breast cancer: a centralised evaluation of 8088 patients from 10 study groups.

BACKGROUND: The value of KI67 in breast cancer prognostication has been questioned due to concerns on the analytical validity of visual KI67 assessment and methodological limitations of published studies. Here, we investigate the prognostic value of automated KI67 scoring in a large, multicentre study, and compare this with pathologists' visual scores available in a subset of patients. METHODS: We utilised 143 tissue microarrays containing 15,313 tumour tissue cores from 8088 breast cancer patients in 10 collaborating studies. A total of 1401 deaths occurred during a median follow-up of 7.5 years. Centralised KI67 assessment was performed using an automated scoring protocol. The relationship of KI67 levels with 10-year breast cancer specific survival (BCSS) was investigated using Kaplan-Meier survival curves and Cox proportional hazard regression models adjusted for known prognostic factors. RESULTS: Patients in the highest quartile of KI67 (>12 % positive KI67 cells) had a worse 10-year BCSS than patients in the lower three quartiles. This association was statistically significant for ER-positive patients (hazard ratio (HR) (95 % CI) at baseline = 1.96 (1.31-2.93); P = 0.001) but not for ER-negative patients (1.23 (0.86-1.77); P = 0.248) (P-heterogeneity = 0.064). In spite of differences in characteristics of the study populations, the estimates of HR were consistent across all studies (P-heterogeneity = 0.941 for ER-positive and P-heterogeneity = 0.866 for ER-negative). Among ER-positive cancers, KI67 was associated with worse prognosis in both node-negative (2.47 (1.16-5.27)) and node-positive (1.74 (1.05-2.86)) tumours (P-heterogeneity = 0.671). Further classification according to ER, PR and HER2 showed statistically significant associations with prognosis among hormone receptor-positive patients regardless of HER2 status (P-heterogeneity = 0.270) and among triple-negative patients (1.70 (1.02-2.84)). Model fit parameters were similar for visual and automated measures of KI67 in a subset of 2440 patients with information from both sources. CONCLUSIONS: Findings from this large-scale multicentre analysis with centrally generated automated KI67 scores show strong evidence in support of a prognostic value for automated KI67 scoring in breast cancer. Given the advantages of automated scoring in terms of its potential for standardisation, reproducibility and throughput, automated methods appear to be promising alternatives to visual scoring for KI67 assessment.

High-throughput automated scoring of Ki67 in breast cancer tissue microarrays from the Breast Cancer Association Consortium.

Automated methods are needed to facilitate high-throughput and reproducible scoring of Ki67 and other markers in breast cancer tissue microarrays (TMAs) in large-scale studies. To address this need, we developed an automated protocol for Ki67 scoring and evaluated its performance in studies from the Breast Cancer Association Consortium. We utilized 166 TMAs containing 16,953 tumour cores representing 9,059 breast cancer cases, from 13 studies, with information on other clinical and pathological characteristics. TMAs were stained for Ki67 using standard immunohistochemical procedures, and scanned and digitized using the Ariol system. An automated algorithm was developed for the scoring of Ki67, and scores were compared to computer assisted visual (CAV) scores in a subset of 15 TMAs in a training set. We also assessed the correlation between automated Ki67 scores and other clinical and pathological characteristics. Overall, we observed good discriminatory accuracy (AUC = 85%) and good agreement (kappa = 0.64) between the automated and CAV scoring methods in the training set. The performance of the automated method varied by TMA (kappa range= 0.37-0.87) and study (kappa range = 0.39-0.69). The automated method performed better in satisfactory cores (kappa = 0.68) than suboptimal (kappa = 0.51) cores (p-value for comparison = 0.005); and among cores with higher total nuclei counted by the machine (4,000-4,500 cells: kappa = 0.78) than those with lower counts (50-500 cells: kappa = 0.41; p-value = 0.010). Among the 9,059 cases in this study, the correlations between automated Ki67 and clinical and pathological characteristics were found to be in the expected directions. Our findings indicate that automated scoring of Ki67 can be an efficient method to obtain good quality data across large numbers of TMAs from multicentre studies. However, robust algorithm development and rigorous pre- and post-analytical quality control procedures are necessary in order to ensure satisfactory performance.

Genome-Wide Meta-Analyses of Breast, Ovarian, and Prostate Cancer Association Studies Identify Multiple New Susceptibility Loci Shared by at Least Two Cancer Types.

UNLABELLED: Breast, ovarian, and prostate cancers are hormone-related and may have a shared genetic basis, but this has not been investigated systematically by genome-wide association (GWA) studies. Meta-analyses combining the largest GWA meta-analysis data sets for these cancers totaling 112,349 cases and 116,421 controls of European ancestry, all together and in pairs, identified at P < 10(-8) seven new cross-cancer loci: three associated with susceptibility to all three cancers (rs17041869/2q13/BCL2L11; rs7937840/11q12/INCENP; rs1469713/19p13/GATAD2A), two breast and ovarian cancer risk loci (rs200182588/9q31/SMC2; rs8037137/15q26/RCCD1), and two breast and prostate cancer risk loci (rs5013329/1p34/NSUN4; rs9375701/6q23/L3MBTL3). Index variants in five additional regions previously associated with only one cancer also showed clear association with a second cancer type. Cell-type-specific expression quantitative trait locus and enhancer-gene interaction annotations suggested target genes with potential cross-cancer roles at the new loci. Pathway analysis revealed significant enrichment of death receptor signaling genes near loci with P < 10(-5) in the three-cancer meta-analysis. SIGNIFICANCE: We demonstrate that combining large-scale GWA meta-analysis findings across cancer types can identify completely new risk loci common to breast, ovarian, and prostate cancers. We show that the identification of such cross-cancer risk loci has the potential to shed new light on the shared biology underlying these hormone-related cancers. Cancer Discov; 6(9); 1052-67. ©2016 AACR.This article is highlighted in the In This Issue feature, p. 932.

Body mass index and leukocyte telomere length dynamics among older adults: Results from the ESTHER cohort.

OBJECTIVE: Telomere length (TL) has been proposed as a biomarker of ageing, which might be used to identify individuals at higher risk of age-related diseases. Obesity is a well-known risk factor for several diseases. This study aims to analyse the associations of BMI with TL and the rate of TL change in older adults. METHODS: Leukocyte TL (LTL) was measured by quantitative PCR in blood samples of 3600 older adults aged 50-75 years obtained at the baseline examination of a population-based cohort study in Germany. For longitudinal analyses, measurements were repeated in blood samples obtained at 8-year follow-up from 1000 participants. Multivariate linear regression models were used to estimate associations of BMI with LTL and changes in LTL over time. RESULTS: LTL was inversely associated with age (r = -0.090, p < 0.0001). BMI and LTL associations varied according to age (p for interaction = 0.021). BMI was significantly inversely associated with LTL in those younger than 60 years (-6 basepairs per 1 kg/m(2) difference in BMI). In particular, weight gain during adulthood was inversely associated with LTL in a dose-response manner in this age group, with those having gained ≥ 30 kg having significantly shorter telomeres (-209 basepairs) than those who maintained their weight. No clear patterns were observed between any of BMI-related variables and the rate of LTL change. CONCLUSIONS: Our cross-sectional analysis supports suggestions that weight gain during adulthood and obesity may contribute to shorter telomere length below 60 years of age, but this relationship could not be shown longitudinally.

Smoking habits and leukocyte telomere length dynamics among older adults: Results from the ESTHER cohort.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Leukocyte telomere length (LTL) shortens with age and short LTL has been associated with increased mortality and increased risk for some age-related outcomes. This study aims to analyse the associations of smoking habits with LTL and rate of LTL change per year in older adults. METHODS: LTL was measured by quantitative PCR at baseline in 3600 older adults, who were enrolled in a population-based cohort study in Germany. For longitudinal analyses, measurements were repeated in blood samples obtained at 8-year follow-up from 1000 participants. Terminal Restriction Fragment analysis was additionally performed in a sub-sample to obtain absolute LTL in base pairs. Multivariate linear regression models were used to estimate associations of smoking habits with baseline LTL and changes in LTL over time. RESULTS: LTL was inversely associated with age (r=-0.090, p<0.0001). Women had longer LTL than men (p<0.0001). Smoking was inversely associated with LTL. On average, current smokers had 73 base pairs (BP) shorter LTL compared to never smokers. Smoking intensity and pack-years of smoking were also inversely associated with LTL, and a positive association was observed with years since smoking cessation. Slower LTL attrition rates were observed in ever smokers over 8years of follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: Our cross-sectional analysis supports suggestions that smoking might contribute to shortening of LTL but this relationship could not be shown longitudinally. The overall rather small effect sizes observed for smoking-related variables suggest that LTL reflects smoking-related health hazards only to a very limited extent.

Crowdsourcing the General Public for Large Scale Molecular Pathology Studies in Cancer.

BACKGROUND: Citizen science, scientific research conducted by non-specialists, has the potential to facilitate biomedical research using available large-scale data, however validating the results is challenging. The Cell Slider is a citizen science project that intends to share images from tumors with the general public, enabling them to score tumor markers independently through an internet-based interface. METHODS: From October 2012 to June 2014, 98,293 Citizen Scientists accessed the Cell Slider web page and scored 180,172 sub-images derived from images of 12,326 tissue microarray cores labeled for estrogen receptor (ER). We evaluated the accuracy of Citizen Scientist's ER classification, and the association between ER status and prognosis by comparing their test performance against trained pathologists. FINDINGS: The area under ROC curve was 0.95 (95% CI 0.94 to 0.96) for cancer cell identification and 0.97 (95% CI 0.96 to 0.97) for ER status. ER positive tumors scored by Citizen Scientists were associated with survival in a similar way to that scored by trained pathologists. Survival probability at 15 years were 0.78 (95% CI 0.76 to 0.80) for ER-positive and 0.72 (95% CI 0.68 to 0.77) for ER-negative tumors based on Citizen Scientists classification. Based on pathologist classification, survival probability was 0.79 (95% CI 0.77 to 0.81) for ER-positive and 0.71 (95% CI 0.67 to 0.74) for ER-negative tumors. The hazard ratio for death was 0.26 (95% CI 0.18 to 0.37) at diagnosis and became greater than one after 6.5 years of follow-up for ER scored by Citizen Scientists, and 0.24 (95% CI 0.18 to 0.33) at diagnosis increasing thereafter to one after 6.7 (95% CI 4.1 to 10.9) years of follow-up for ER scored by pathologists. INTERPRETATION: Crowdsourcing of the general public to classify cancer pathology data for research is viable, engages the public and provides accurate ER data. Crowdsourced classification of research data may offer a valid solution to problems of throughput requiring human input.

Prediction of individual genetic risk to prostate cancer using a polygenic score.

BACKGROUND: Polygenic risk scores comprising established susceptibility variants have shown to be informative classifiers for several complex diseases including prostate cancer. For prostate cancer it is unknown if inclusion of genetic markers that have so far not been associated with prostate cancer risk at a genome-wide significant level will improve disease prediction. METHODS: We built polygenic risk scores in a large training set comprising over 25,000 individuals. Initially 65 established prostate cancer susceptibility variants were selected. After LD pruning additional variants were prioritized based on their association with prostate cancer. Six-fold cross validation was performed to assess genetic risk scores and optimize the number of additional variants to be included. The final model was evaluated in an independent study population including 1,370 cases and 1,239 controls. RESULTS: The polygenic risk score with 65 established susceptibility variants provided an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.67. Adding an additional 68 novel variants significantly increased the AUC to 0.68 (P = 0.0012) and the net reclassification index with 0.21 (P = 8.5E-08). All novel variants were located in genomic regions established as associated with prostate cancer risk. CONCLUSIONS: Inclusion of additional genetic variants from established prostate cancer susceptibility regions improves disease prediction.

Fine-mapping identifies two additional breast cancer susceptibility loci at 9q31.2.

We recently identified a novel susceptibility variant, rs865686, for estrogen-receptor positive breast cancer at 9q31.2. Here, we report a fine-mapping analysis of the 9q31.2 susceptibility locus using 43 160 cases and 42 600 controls of European ancestry ascertained from 52 studies and a further 5795 cases and 6624 controls of Asian ancestry from nine studies. Single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) rs676256 was most strongly associated with risk in Europeans (odds ratios [OR] = 0.90 [0.88-0.92]; P-value = 1.58 × 10(-25)). This SNP is one of a cluster of highly correlated variants, including rs865686, that spans ∼14.5 kb. We identified two additional independent association signals demarcated by SNPs rs10816625 (OR = 1.12 [1.08-1.17]; P-value = 7.89 × 10(-09)) and rs13294895 (OR = 1.09 [1.06-1.12]; P-value = 2.97 × 10(-11)). SNP rs10816625, but not rs13294895, was also associated with risk of breast cancer in Asian individuals (OR = 1.12 [1.06-1.18]; P-value = 2.77 × 10(-05)). Functional genomic annotation using data derived from breast cancer cell-line models indicates that these SNPs localise to putative enhancer elements that bind known drivers of hormone-dependent breast cancer, including ER-α, FOXA1 and GATA-3. In vitro analyses indicate that rs10816625 and rs13294895 have allele-specific effects on enhancer activity and suggest chromatin interactions with the KLF4 gene locus. These results demonstrate the power of dense genotyping in large studies to identify independent susceptibility variants. Analysis of associations using subjects with different ancestry, combined with bioinformatic and genomic characterisation, can provide strong evidence for the likely causative alleles and their functional basis.

Associated Links Among Smoking, Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease, and Small Cell Lung Cancer: A Pooled Analysis in the International Lung Cancer Consortium.

BACKGROUND: The high relapse and mortality rate of small-cell lung cancer (SCLC) fuels the need for epidemiologic study to aid in its prevention. METHODS: We included 24 studies from the ILCCO collaboration. Random-effects panel logistic regression and cubic spline regression were used to estimate the effects of smoking behaviors on SCLC risk and explore their non-linearity. Further, we explored whether the risk of smoking on SCLC was mediated through COPD. FINDINGS: Significant dose-response relationships of SCLC risk were observed for all quantitative smoking variables. Smoking pack-years were associated with a sharper increase of SCLC risk for pack-years ranged 0 to approximately 50. The former smokers with longer cessation showed a 43%quit_for_5-9 years to 89%quit_for_≥ 20 years declined SCLC risk vs. subjects who had quit smoking < 5 years. Compared with non-COPD subjects, smoking behaviors showed a significantly higher effect on SCLC risk among COPD subjects, and further, COPD patients showed a 1.86-fold higher risk of SCLC. Furthermore, smoking behaviors on SCLC risk were significantly mediated through COPD which accounted for 0.70% to 7.55% of total effects. INTERPRETATION: This is the largest pooling study that provides improved understanding of smoking on SCLC, and further demonstrates a causal pathway through COPD that warrants further experimental study.

Risk of contralateral second primary breast cancer according to hormone receptor status in Germany.

INTRODUCTION: Hormone receptor (HR) status has become an established target in treatment strategies of breast cancer. Population-based estimates of contralateral breast cancer (CBC) incidence by HR subtype in particular are limited. The aim of this study was to provide detailed data on CBC incidence for Germany. METHODS: Invasive breast cancer data were extracted on 49,804 women yielding 594 second primaries from the cancer registries of the Federal States of Brandenburg and Saarland and the area of Munich for the period from 1998 to 2007. Multiple imputation was used on missing values for HR status. We estimated standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) with 95% confidence intervals (95%CIs). RESULTS: SIR estimates of CBC among women diagnosed with an invasive first primary breast cancer (FBC) of any HR subtype ranged from 1.0 to 1.5 in the three registries. Pooling three registries' data, the SIR of HR-positive CBC was 0.7 (95%CI: 0.6 to 0.8) among women with HR-positive FBC. For those women with HR-negative FBC, the SIR of HR-negative CBC was 8.9 (95%CI: 7.1 to 11.1). Among women with FBC diagnosed before the age of 50 years, incidence of CBC was increased, especially for HR-negative FBC (SIR: 9.2; 95%CI: 7.1 to 11.9). CONCLUSIONS: HR status of the first primary and age at first diagnosis is relevant for predicting risk of CBC. Particularly, patients with HR-negative FBC had elevated risks.

Frailty and telomere length: cross-sectional analysis in 3537 older adults from the ESTHER cohort.

Both telomere length and frailty were observed to be associated with aging. Whether and to what extent telomere length is related to frailty is essentially unknown. In this cross-sectional analysis of baseline data of 3537 community-dwelling adults aged 50 to 75 years of a large German cohort study, we assessed the hypothesis that shorter telomere length might be a biological marker for frailty. Using whole blood DNA we examined mean telomere repeat copy to single gene copy number (T/S ratio) using quantitative PCR. Construction of a frailty index (FI) was based on a deficit accumulation approach, which quantifies frailty as ratio of the deficits present divided by the total number of deficits considered. Mean FI was determined according to age by tertiles of T/S ratio. Furthermore, we used correlation analyses stratified for gender and age groups to examine the association of the T/S ratio with frailty. Mean FI value was similar across tertiles of the T/S ratio (0.24±0.14, 0.24±0.14 and 0.23±0.14, respectively (p=0.09)), and FI and the T/S ratio were uncorrelated in gender- and age-specific analyses. In conclusion, T/S ratio and frailty were unrelated in this large sample of older adults. T/S ratio may therefore not be a meaningful biological marker for frailty.