Beliefs, compulsive behavior and reduced confidence in control.

OCD has been conceptualized as a disorder arising from dysfunctional beliefs, such as overestimating threats or pathological doubts. Yet, how these beliefs lead to compulsions and obsessions remains unclear. Here, we develop a computational model to examine the specific beliefs that trigger and sustain compulsive behavior in a simple symptom-provoking scenario. Our results demonstrate that a single belief disturbance-a lack of confidence in the effectiveness of one's preventive (harm-avoiding) actions-can trigger and maintain compulsions and is directly linked to compulsion severity. This distrust can further explain a number of seemingly unrelated phenomena in OCD, including the role of not-just-right feelings, the link to intolerance to uncertainty, perfectionism, and overestimation of threat, and deficits in reversal and state learning. Our simulations shed new light on which underlying beliefs drive compulsive behavior and highlight the important role of perceived ability to exert control for OCD.

Incorporating uncertainty within dynamic interoceptive learning.

Introduction: Interoception, the perception of the internal state of the body, has been shown to be closely linked to emotions and mental health. Of particular interest are interoceptive learning processes that capture associations between environmental cues and body signals as a basis for making homeostatically relevant predictions about the future. One method of measuring respiratory interoceptive learning that has shown promising results is the Breathing Learning Task (BLT). While the original BLT required binary predictions regarding the presence or absence of an upcoming inspiratory resistance, here we extended this paradigm to capture continuous measures of prediction (un)certainty. Methods: Sixteen healthy participants completed the continuous version of the BLT, where they were asked to predict the likelihood of breathing resistances on a continuous scale from 0.0 to 10.0. In order to explain participants' responses, a Rescorla-Wagner model of associative learning was combined with suitable observation models for continuous or binary predictions, respectively. For validation, we compared both models against corresponding null models and examined the correlation between observed and modeled predictions. The model was additionally extended to test whether learning rates differed according to stimuli valence. Finally, summary measures of prediction certainty as well as model estimates for learning rates were considered against interoceptive and mental health questionnaire measures. Results: Our results demonstrated that the continuous model fits closely captured participant behavior using empirical data, and the binarised predictions showed excellent replicability compared to previously collected data. However, the model extension indicated that there were no significant differences between learning rates for negative (i.e. breathing resistance) and positive (i.e. no breathing resistance) stimuli. Finally, significant correlations were found between fatigue severity and both prediction certainty and learning rate, as well as between anxiety sensitivity and prediction certainty. Discussion: These results demonstrate the utility of gathering enriched continuous prediction data in interoceptive learning tasks, and suggest that the updated BLT is a promising paradigm for future investigations into interoceptive learning and potential links to mental health.

The Precision in Psychiatry (PIP) study: Testing an internet-based methodology for accelerating research in treatment prediction and personalisation.

BACKGROUND: Evidence-based treatments for depression exist but not all patients benefit from them. Efforts to develop predictive models that can assist clinicians in allocating treatments are ongoing, but there are major issues with acquiring the volume and breadth of data needed to train these models. We examined the feasibility, tolerability, patient characteristics, and data quality of a novel protocol for internet-based treatment research in psychiatry that may help advance this field. METHODS: A fully internet-based protocol was used to gather repeated observational data from patient cohorts receiving internet-based cognitive behavioural therapy (iCBT) (N = 600) or antidepressant medication treatment (N = 110). At baseline, participants provided > 600 data points of self-report data, spanning socio-demographics, lifestyle, physical health, clinical and other psychological variables and completed 4 cognitive tests. They were followed weekly and completed another detailed clinical and cognitive assessment at week 4. In this paper, we describe our study design, the demographic and clinical characteristics of participants, their treatment adherence, study retention and compliance, the quality of the data gathered, and qualitative feedback from patients on study design and implementation. RESULTS: Participant retention was 92% at week 3 and 84% for the final assessment. The relatively short study duration of 4 weeks was sufficient to reveal early treatment effects; there were significant reductions in 11 transdiagnostic psychiatric symptoms assessed, with the largest improvement seen for depression. Most participants (66%) reported being distracted at some point during the study, 11% failed 1 or more attention checks and 3% consumed an intoxicating substance. Data quality was nonetheless high, with near perfect 4-week test retest reliability for self-reported height (ICC = 0.97). CONCLUSIONS: An internet-based methodology can be used efficiently to gather large amounts of detailed patient data during iCBT and antidepressant treatment. Recruitment was rapid, retention was relatively high and data quality was good. This paper provides a template methodology for future internet-based treatment studies, showing that such an approach facilitates data collection at a scale required for machine learning and other data-intensive methods that hope to deliver algorithmic tools that can aid clinical decision-making in psychiatry.

Low predictive power of clinical features for relapse prediction after antidepressant discontinuation in a naturalistic setting.

The risk of relapse after antidepressant medication (ADM) discontinuation is high. Predictors of relapse could guide clinical decision-making, but are yet to be established. We assessed demographic and clinical variables in a longitudinal observational study before antidepressant discontinuation. State-dependent variables were re-assessed either after discontinuation or before discontinuation after a waiting period. Relapse was assessed during 6 months after discontinuation. We applied logistic general linear models in combination with least absolute shrinkage and selection operator and elastic nets to avoid overfitting in order to identify predictors of relapse and estimated their generalisability using cross-validation. The final sample included 104 patients (age: 34.86 (11.1), 77% female) and 57 healthy controls (age: 34.12 (10.6), 70% female). 36% of the patients experienced a relapse. Treatment by a general practitioner increased the risk of relapse. Although within-sample statistical analyses suggested reasonable sensitivity and specificity, out-of-sample prediction of relapse was at chance level. Residual symptoms increased with discontinuation, but did not relate to relapse. Demographic and standard clinical variables appear to carry little predictive power and therefore are of limited use for patients and clinicians in guiding clinical decision-making.

Test-retest reliability of regression dynamic causal modeling.

Regression dynamic causal modeling (rDCM) is a novel and computationally highly efficient method for inferring effective connectivity at the whole-brain level. While face and construct validity of rDCM have already been demonstrated, here we assessed its test-retest reliability-a test-theoretical property of particular importance for clinical applications-together with group-level consistency of connection-specific estimates and consistency of whole-brain connectivity patterns over sessions. Using the Human Connectome Project dataset for eight different paradigms (tasks and rest) and two different parcellation schemes, we found that rDCM provided highly consistent connectivity estimates at the group level across sessions. Second, while test-retest reliability was limited when averaging over all connections (range of mean intraclass correlation coefficient 0.24-0.42 over tasks), reliability increased with connection strength, with stronger connections showing good to excellent test-retest reliability. Third, whole-brain connectivity patterns by rDCM allowed for identifying individual participants with high (and in some cases perfect) accuracy. Comparing the test-retest reliability of rDCM connectivity estimates with measures of functional connectivity, rDCM performed favorably-particularly when focusing on strong connections. Generally, for all methods and metrics, task-based connectivity estimates showed greater reliability than those from the resting state. Our results underscore the potential of rDCM for human connectomics and clinical applications.

An introduction to thermodynamic integration and application to dynamic causal models.

In generative modeling of neuroimaging data, such as dynamic causal modeling (DCM), one typically considers several alternative models, either to determine the most plausible explanation for observed data (Bayesian model selection) or to account for model uncertainty (Bayesian model averaging). Both procedures rest on estimates of the model evidence, a principled trade-off between model accuracy and complexity. In the context of DCM, the log evidence is usually approximated using variational Bayes. Although this approach is highly efficient, it makes distributional assumptions and is vulnerable to local extrema. This paper introduces the use of thermodynamic integration (TI) for Bayesian model selection and averaging in the context of DCM. TI is based on Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling which is asymptotically exact but orders of magnitude slower than variational Bayes. In this paper, we explain the theoretical foundations of TI, covering key concepts such as the free energy and its origins in statistical physics. Our aim is to convey an in-depth understanding of the method starting from its historical origin in statistical physics. In addition, we demonstrate the practical application of TI via a series of examples which serve to guide the user in applying this method. Furthermore, these examples demonstrate that, given an efficient implementation and hardware capable of parallel processing, the challenge of high computational demand can be overcome successfully. The TI implementation presented in this paper is freely available as part of the open source software TAPAS. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11571-021-09696-9.

Interoception of breathing and its relationship with anxiety.

Interoception, the perception of internal bodily states, is thought to be inextricably linked to affective qualities such as anxiety. Although interoception spans sensory to metacognitive processing, it is not clear whether anxiety is differentially related to these processing levels. Here we investigated this question in the domain of breathing, using computational modeling and high-field (7 T) fMRI to assess brain activity relating to dynamic changes in inspiratory resistance of varying predictability. Notably, the anterior insula was associated with both breathing-related prediction certainty and prediction errors, suggesting an important role in representing and updating models of the body. Individuals with low versus moderate anxiety traits showed differential anterior insula activity for prediction certainty. Multi-modal analyses of data from fMRI, computational assessments of breathing-related metacognition, and questionnaires demonstrated that anxiety-interoception links span all levels from perceptual sensitivity to metacognition, with strong effects seen at higher levels of interoceptive processes.

Conductance-based dynamic causal modeling: A mathematical review of its application to cross-power spectral densities.

Dynamic Causal Modeling (DCM) is a Bayesian framework for inferring on hidden (latent) neuronal states, based on measurements of brain activity. Since its introduction in 2003 for functional magnetic resonance imaging data, DCM has been extended to electrophysiological data, and several variants have been developed. Their biophysically motivated formulations make these models promising candidates for providing a mechanistic understanding of human brain dynamics, both in health and disease. However, due to their complexity and reliance on concepts from several fields, fully understanding the mathematical and conceptual basis behind certain variants of DCM can be challenging. At the same time, a solid theoretical knowledge of the models is crucial to avoid pitfalls in the application of these models and interpretation of their results. In this paper, we focus on one of the most advanced formulations of DCM, i.e. conductance-based DCM for cross-spectral densities, whose components are described across multiple technical papers. The aim of the present article is to provide an accessible exposition of the mathematical background, together with an illustration of the model's behavior. To this end, we include step-by-step derivations of the model equations, point to important aspects in the software implementation of those models, and use simulations to provide an intuitive understanding of the type of responses that can be generated and the role that specific parameters play in the model. Furthermore, all code utilized for our simulations is made publicly available alongside the manuscript to allow readers an easy hands-on experience with conductance-based DCM.

The Filter Detection Task for measurement of breathing-related interoception and metacognition.

The study of the brain's processing of sensory inputs from within the body ('interoception') has been gaining rapid popularity in neuroscience, where interoceptive disturbances are thought to exist across a wide range of chronic physiological and psychological conditions. Here we present a task and analysis procedure to quantify specific dimensions of breathing-related interoception, including interoceptive sensitivity, decision bias, metacognitive bias, and metacognitive performance. Two major developments address some of the challenges presented by low trial numbers in interoceptive experiments: (i) a novel adaptive algorithm to maintain task performance at 70-75% accuracy; (ii) an extended hierarchical metacognitive model to estimate regression parameters linking metacognitive performance to relevant (e.g. clinical) variables. We demonstrate the utility of the task and analysis developments, using both simulated data and three empirical datasets. This methodology represents an important step towards accurately quantifying interoceptive dimensions from a simple experimental procedure that is compatible with clinical settings.

TAPAS: An Open-Source Software Package for Translational Neuromodeling and Computational Psychiatry.

Psychiatry faces fundamental challenges with regard to mechanistically guided differential diagnosis, as well as prediction of clinical trajectories and treatment response of individual patients. This has motivated the genesis of two closely intertwined fields: (i) Translational Neuromodeling (TN), which develops "computational assays" for inferring patient-specific disease processes from neuroimaging, electrophysiological, and behavioral data; and (ii) Computational Psychiatry (CP), with the goal of incorporating computational assays into clinical decision making in everyday practice. In order to serve as objective and reliable tools for clinical routine, computational assays require end-to-end pipelines from raw data (input) to clinically useful information (output). While these are yet to be established in clinical practice, individual components of this general end-to-end pipeline are being developed and made openly available for community use. In this paper, we present the Translational Algorithms for Psychiatry-Advancing Science (TAPAS) software package, an open-source collection of building blocks for computational assays in psychiatry. Collectively, the tools in TAPAS presently cover several important aspects of the desired end-to-end pipeline, including: (i) tailored experimental designs and optimization of measurement strategy prior to data acquisition, (ii) quality control during data acquisition, and (iii) artifact correction, statistical inference, and clinical application after data acquisition. Here, we review the different tools within TAPAS and illustrate how these may help provide a deeper understanding of neural and cognitive mechanisms of disease, with the ultimate goal of establishing automatized pipelines for predictions about individual patients. We hope that the openly available tools in TAPAS will contribute to the further development of TN/CP and facilitate the translation of advances in computational neuroscience into clinically relevant computational assays.

Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for hierarchical clustering of dynamic causal models.

In this article, we address technical difficulties that arise when applying Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to hierarchical models designed to perform clustering in the space of latent parameters of subject-wise generative models. Specifically, we focus on the case where the subject-wise generative model is a dynamic causal model (DCM) for functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) and clusters are defined in terms of effective brain connectivity. While an attractive approach for detecting mechanistically interpretable subgroups in heterogeneous populations, inverting such a hierarchical model represents a particularly challenging case, since DCM is often characterized by high posterior correlations between its parameters. In this context, standard MCMC schemes exhibit poor performance and extremely slow convergence. In this article, we investigate the properties of hierarchical clustering which lead to the observed failure of standard MCMC schemes and propose a solution designed to improve convergence but preserve computational complexity. Specifically, we introduce a class of proposal distributions which aims to capture the interdependencies between the parameters of the clustering and subject-wise generative models and helps to reduce random walk behaviour of the MCMC scheme. Critically, these proposal distributions only introduce a single hyperparameter that needs to be tuned to achieve good performance. For validation, we apply our proposed solution to synthetic and real-world datasets and also compare it, in terms of computational complexity and performance, to Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC), a state-of-the-art Monte Carlo technique. Our results indicate that, for the specific application domain considered here, our proposed solution shows good convergence performance and superior runtime compared to HMC.

Regression dynamic causal modeling for resting-state fMRI.

"Resting-state" functional magnetic resonance imaging (rs-fMRI) is widely used to study brain connectivity. So far, researchers have been restricted to measures of functional connectivity that are computationally efficient but undirected, or to effective connectivity estimates that are directed but limited to small networks. Here, we show that a method recently developed for task-fMRI-regression dynamic causal modeling (rDCM)-extends to rs-fMRI and offers both directional estimates and scalability to whole-brain networks. First, simulations demonstrate that rDCM faithfully recovers parameter values over a wide range of signal-to-noise ratios and repetition times. Second, we test construct validity of rDCM in relation to an established model of effective connectivity, spectral DCM. Using rs-fMRI data from nearly 200 healthy participants, rDCM produces biologically plausible results consistent with estimates by spectral DCM. Importantly, rDCM is computationally highly efficient, reconstructing whole-brain networks (>200 areas) within minutes on standard hardware. This opens promising new avenues for connectomics.

Cholinergic and dopaminergic effects on prediction error and uncertainty responses during sensory associative learning.

Navigating the physical world requires learning probabilistic associations between sensory events and their change in time (volatility). Bayesian accounts of this learning process rest on hierarchical prediction errors (PEs) that are weighted by estimates of uncertainty (or its inverse, precision). In a previous fMRI study we found that low-level precision-weighted PEs about visual outcomes (that update beliefs about associations) activated the putative dopaminergic midbrain; by contrast, precision-weighted PEs about cue-outcome associations (that update beliefs about volatility) activated the cholinergic basal forebrain. These findings suggested selective dopaminergic and cholinergic influences on precision-weighted PEs at different hierarchical levels. Here, we tested this hypothesis, repeating our fMRI study under pharmacological manipulations in healthy participants. Specifically, we performed two pharmacological fMRI studies with a between-subject double-blind placebo-controlled design: study 1 used antagonists of dopaminergic (amisulpride) and muscarinic (biperiden) receptors, study 2 used enhancing drugs of dopaminergic (levodopa) and cholinergic (galantamine) modulation. Pooled across all pharmacological conditions of study 1 and study 2, respectively, we found that low-level precision-weighted PEs activated the midbrain and high-level precision-weighted PEs the basal forebrain as in our previous study. However, we found pharmacological effects on brain activity associated with these computational quantities only when splitting the precision-weighted PEs into their PE and precision components: in a brainstem region putatively containing cholinergic (pedunculopontine and laterodorsal tegmental) nuclei, biperiden (compared to placebo) enhanced low-level PE responses and attenuated high-level PE activity, while amisulpride reduced high-level PE responses. Additionally, in the putative dopaminergic midbrain, galantamine compared to placebo enhanced low-level PE responses (in a body-weight dependent manner) and amisulpride enhanced high-level precision activity. Task behaviour was not affected by any of the drugs. These results do not support our hypothesis of a clear-cut dichotomy between different hierarchical inference levels and neurotransmitter systems, but suggest a more complex interaction between these neuromodulatory systems and hierarchical Bayesian quantities. However, our present results may have been affected by confounds inherent to pharmacological fMRI. We discuss these confounds and outline improved experimental tests for the future.

Whole-brain estimates of directed connectivity for human connectomics.

Connectomics is essential for understanding large-scale brain networks but requires that individual connection estimates are neurobiologically interpretable. In particular, a principle of brain organization is that reciprocal connections between cortical areas are functionally asymmetric. This is a challenge for fMRI-based connectomics in humans where only undirected functional connectivity estimates are routinely available. By contrast, whole-brain estimates of effective (directed) connectivity are computationally challenging, and emerging methods require empirical validation. Here, using a motor task at 7T, we demonstrate that a novel generative model can infer known connectivity features in a whole-brain network (>200 regions, >40,000 connections) highly efficiently. Furthermore, graph-theoretical analyses of directed connectivity estimates identify functional roles of motor areas more accurately than undirected functional connectivity estimates. These results, which can be achieved in an entirely unsupervised manner, demonstrate the feasibility of inferring directed connections in whole-brain networks and open new avenues for human connectomics.

The relationship between resting-state functional connectivity, antidepressant discontinuation and depression relapse.

The risk of relapsing into depression after stopping antidepressants is high, but no established predictors exist. Resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging (rsfMRI) measures may help predict relapse and identify the mechanisms by which relapses occur. rsfMRI data were acquired from healthy controls and from patients with remitted major depressive disorder on antidepressants. Patients were assessed a second time either before or after discontinuation of the antidepressant, and followed up for six months to assess relapse. A seed-based functional connectivity analysis was conducted focusing on the left subgenual anterior cingulate cortex and left posterior cingulate cortex. Seeds in the amygdala and dorsolateral prefrontal cortex were explored. 44 healthy controls (age: 33.8 (10.5), 73% female) and 84 patients (age: 34.23 (10.8), 80% female) were included in the analysis. 29 patients went on to relapse and 38 remained well. The seed-based analysis showed that discontinuation resulted in an increased functional connectivity between the right dorsolateral prefrontal cortex and the parietal cortex in non-relapsers. In an exploratory analysis, this functional connectivity predicted relapse risk with a balanced accuracy of 0.86. Further seed-based analyses, however, failed to reveal differences in functional connectivity between patients and controls, between relapsers and non-relapsers before discontinuation and changes due to discontinuation independent of relapse. In conclusion, changes in the connectivity between the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex and the posterior default mode network were associated with and predictive of relapse after open-label antidepressant discontinuation. This finding requires replication in a larger dataset.

Ketamine Affects Prediction Errors about Statistical Regularities: A Computational Single-Trial Analysis of the Mismatch Negativity.

The auditory mismatch negativity (MMN) is significantly reduced in schizophrenia. Notably, a similar MMN reduction can be achieved with NMDA receptor (NMDAR) antagonists. Both phenomena have been interpreted as reflecting an impairment of predictive coding or, more generally, the "Bayesian brain" notion that the brain continuously updates a hierarchical model to infer the causes of its sensory inputs. Specifically, neurobiological interpretations of predictive coding view perceptual inference as an NMDAR-dependent process of minimizing hierarchical precision-weighted prediction errors (PEs), and disturbances of this putative process play a key role in hierarchical Bayesian theories of schizophrenia. Here, we provide empirical evidence for this theory, demonstrating the existence of multiple, hierarchically related PEs in a "roving MMN" paradigm. We applied a hierarchical Bayesian model to single-trial EEG data from healthy human volunteers of either sex who received the NMDAR antagonist S-ketamine in a placebo-controlled, double-blind, within-subject fashion. Using an unrestricted analysis of the entire time-sensor space, our trial-by-trial analysis indicated that low-level PEs (about stimulus transitions) are expressed early (102-207 ms poststimulus), while high-level PEs (about transition probability) are reflected by later components (152-199 and 215-277 ms) of single-trial responses. Furthermore, we find that ketamine significantly diminished the expression of high-level PE responses, implying that NMDAR antagonism disrupts the inference on abstract statistical regularities. Our findings suggest that NMDAR dysfunction impairs hierarchical Bayesian inference about the world's statistical structure. Beyond the relevance of this finding for schizophrenia, our results illustrate the potential of computational single-trial analyses for assessing potential pathophysiological mechanisms.

The structural connectivity of subthalamic deep brain stimulation correlates with impulsivity in Parkinson's disease.

Subthalamic deep brain stimulation (STN-DBS) for Parkinson's disease treats motor symptoms and improves quality of life, but can be complicated by adverse neuropsychiatric side-effects, including impulsivity. Several clinically important questions remain unclear: can 'at-risk' patients be identified prior to DBS; do neuropsychiatric symptoms relate to the distribution of the stimulation field; and which brain networks are responsible for the evolution of these symptoms? Using a comprehensive neuropsychiatric battery and a virtual casino to assess impulsive behaviour in a naturalistic fashion, 55 patients with Parkinson's disease (19 females, mean age 62, mean Hoehn and Yahr stage 2.6) were assessed prior to STN-DBS and 3 months postoperatively. Reward evaluation and response inhibition networks were reconstructed with probabilistic tractography using the participant-specific subthalamic volume of activated tissue as a seed. We found that greater connectivity of the stimulation site with these frontostriatal networks was related to greater postoperative impulsiveness and disinhibition as assessed by the neuropsychiatric instruments. Larger bet sizes in the virtual casino postoperatively were associated with greater connectivity of the stimulation site with right and left orbitofrontal cortex, right ventromedial prefrontal cortex and left ventral striatum. For all assessments, the baseline connectivity of reward evaluation and response inhibition networks prior to STN-DBS was not associated with postoperative impulsivity; rather, these relationships were only observed when the stimulation field was incorporated. This suggests that the site and distribution of stimulation is a more important determinant of postoperative neuropsychiatric outcomes than preoperative brain structure and that stimulation acts to mediate impulsivity through differential recruitment of frontostriatal networks. Notably, a distinction could be made amongst participants with clinically-significant, harmful changes in mood and behaviour attributable to DBS, based upon an analysis of connectivity and its relationship with gambling behaviour. Additional analyses suggested that this distinction may be mediated by the differential involvement of fibres connecting ventromedial subthalamic nucleus and orbitofrontal cortex. These findings identify a mechanistic substrate of neuropsychiatric impairment after STN-DBS and suggest that tractography could be used to predict the incidence of adverse neuropsychiatric effects. Clinically, these results highlight the importance of accurate electrode placement and careful stimulation titration in the prevention of neuropsychiatric side-effects after STN-DBS.

Effects of hunger, satiety and oral glucose on effective connectivity between hypothalamus and insular cortex.

The hypothalamus and insular cortex play an essential role in the integration of endocrine and homeostatic signals and their impact on food intake. Resting-state functional connectivity alterations of the hypothalamus, posterior insula (PINS) and anterior insula (AINS) are modulated by metabolic states and caloric intake. Nevertheless, a deeper understanding of how these factors affect the strength of connectivity between hypothalamus, PINS and AINS is missing. This study investigated whether effective (directed) connectivity within this network varies as a function of prandial states (hunger vs. satiety) and energy availability (glucose levels and/or hormonal modulation). To address this question, we measured twenty healthy male participants of normal weight twice: once after 36 â€‹h of fasting (except water consumption) and once under satiated conditions. During each session, resting-state functional MRI (rs-fMRI) and hormone concentrations were recorded before and after glucose administration. Spectral dynamic causal modeling (spDCM) was used to assess the effective connectivity between the hypothalamus and anterior and posterior insula. Using Bayesian model selection, we observed that the same model was identified as the most likely model for each rs-fMRI recording. Compared to satiety, the hunger condition enhanced the strength of the forward connections from PINS to AINS and reduced the strength of backward connections from AINS to PINS. Furthermore, the strength of connectivity from PINS to AINS was positively related to plasma cortisol levels in the hunger condition, mainly before glucose administration. However, there was no direct relationship between glucose treatment and effective connectivity. Our findings suggest that prandial states modulate connectivity between PINS and AINS and relate to theories of interoception and homeostatic regulation that invoke hierarchical relations between posterior and anterior insula.

Predicting individual clinical trajectories of depression with generative embedding.

Patients with major depressive disorder (MDD) show heterogeneous treatment response and highly variable clinical trajectories: while some patients experience swift recovery, others show relapsing-remitting or chronic courses. Predicting individual clinical trajectories at an early stage is a key challenge for psychiatry and might facilitate individually tailored interventions. So far, however, reliable predictors at the single-patient level are absent. Here, we evaluated the utility of a machine learning strategy - generative embedding (GE) - which combines interpretable generative models with discriminative classifiers. Specifically, we used functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data of emotional face perception in 85 MDD patients from the NEtherlands Study of Depression and Anxiety (NESDA) who had been followed up over two years and classified into three subgroups with distinct clinical trajectories. Combining a generative model of effective (directed) connectivity with support vector machines (SVMs), we could predict whether a given patient would experience chronic depression vs. fast remission with a balanced accuracy of 79%. Gradual improvement vs. fast remission could still be predicted above-chance, but less convincingly, with a balanced accuracy of 61%. Generative embedding outperformed classification based on conventional (descriptive) features, such as functional connectivity or local activation estimates, which were obtained from the same data and did not allow for above-chance classification accuracy. Furthermore, predictive performance of GE could be assigned to a specific network property: the trial-by-trial modulation of connections by emotional content. Given the limited sample size of our study, the present results are preliminary but may serve as proof-of-concept, illustrating the potential of GE for obtaining clinical predictions that are interpretable in terms of network mechanisms. Our findings suggest that abnormal dynamic changes of connections involved in emotional face processing might be associated with higher risk of developing a less favorable clinical course.

Atypical processing of uncertainty in individuals at risk for psychosis.

Current theories of psychosis highlight the role of abnormal learning signals, i.e., prediction errors (PEs) and uncertainty, in the formation of delusional beliefs. We employed computational analyses of behaviour and functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) to examine whether such abnormalities are evident in clinical high risk (CHR) individuals. Non-medicated CHR individuals (n = 13) and control participants (n = 13) performed a probabilistic learning paradigm during fMRI data acquisition. We used a hierarchical Bayesian model to infer subject-specific computations from behaviour - with a focus on PEs and uncertainty (or its inverse, precision) at different levels, including environmental 'volatility' - and used these computational quantities for analyses of fMRI data. Computational modelling of CHR individuals' behaviour indicated volatility estimates converged to significantly higher levels than in controls. Model-based fMRI demonstrated increased activity in prefrontal and insular regions of CHR individuals in response to precision-weighted low-level outcome PEs, while activations of prefrontal, orbitofrontal and anterior insula cortex by higher-level PEs (that serve to update volatility estimates) were reduced. Additionally, prefrontal cortical activity in response to outcome PEs in CHR was negatively associated with clinical measures of global functioning. Our results suggest a multi-faceted learning abnormality in CHR individuals under conditions of environmental uncertainty, comprising higher levels of volatility estimates combined with reduced cortical activation, and abnormally high activations in prefrontal and insular areas by precision-weighted outcome PEs. This atypical representation of high- and low-level learning signals might reflect a predisposition to delusion formation.