Assessing conservation status with extensive but low-resolution data: Application of frequentist and Bayesian models to endangered Athabasca River rainbow trout.

Use of extensive but low-resolution abundance data is common in the assessment of species at-risk status based on quantitative decline criteria under International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) and national endangered species legislation. Such data can be problematic for 3 reasons. First, statistical power to reject the null hypothesis of no change is often low because of small sample size and high sampling uncertainty leading to a high frequency of type II errors. Second, range-wide assessments composed of multiple site-specific observations do not effectively weight site-specific trends into global trends. Third, uncertainty in site-specific temporal trends and relative abundance are not propagated at the appropriate spatial scale. A common result is the propensity to underestimate the magnitude of declines and therefore fail to identify the appropriate at-risk status for a species. We used 3 statistical approaches, from simple to more complex, to estimate temporal decline rates for a designatable unit (DU) of rainbow trout in the Athabasca River watershed in western Canada. This DU is considered a native species for purposes of listing because of its genetic composition characterized as >0.95 indigenous origin in the face of continuing introgressive hybridization with introduced populations in the watershed. Analysis of abundance trends from 57 time series with a fixed-effects model identified 33 sites with negative trends, but only 2 were statistically significant. By contrast, a hierarchical linear mixed model weighted by site-specific abundance provided a DU-wide decline estimate of 16.4% per year and a 3-generation decline of 93.2%. A hierarchical Bayesian mixed model yielded a similar 3-generation decline trend of 91.3% and the posterior distribution showed that the estimate had a >99% probability of exceeding thresholds for an endangered listing. We conclude that the Bayesian approach was the most useful because it provided a probabilistic statement of threshold exceedance in support of an at-risk status recommendation.

El uso de datos extensivos, pero de baja resolución, de la abundancia es una práctica común en la evaluación del estado de riesgo de una especie con base en los criterios cuantitativos de declinación establecidos por la Unión Internacional para la Conservación de la Naturaleza (UICN) y la legislación nacional sobre especies en peligro extinción. Dicha información puede ser problemática por tres razones: primero, el poder estadístico para rechazar la hipótesis nula de ningún cambio es frecuentemente bajo debido a un tamaño pequeño de la muestra y a la elevada incertidumbre del muestreo, lo que resulta en una frecuencia elevada de errores de tipo II; segundo, las evaluaciones de amplia variedad compuestas de varias observaciones específicas de sitio no sopesan efectivamente las tendencias específicas de sitio dentro de las tendencias globales; y tercero, la incertidumbre en las tendencias temporales específicas de sitio y en la abundancia relativa no se propagan a la escala espacial apropiada. Un resultado común del uso de esta información es la propensión a subestimar la magnitud de las declinaciones, y por lo tanto equivocarse en la identificación del estado de riesgo apropiado para la especie. Usamos tres estrategias estadísticas, de simples a más complejas, para estimar las tasas de declinación temporal para una unidad designable (UD) de trucha arcoíris en la cuenca del río Athabasca al oeste de Canadá. Esta UD es considerada una especie nativa por razones de listado debido a su composición genética, caracterizada como >0-95 de origen nativo de frente a la continua hibridación introgresiva con poblaciones introducidas a la cuenca. El análisis de las tendencias de abundancia de 57 series de tiempo con un modelo de efectos fijos identificó 33 sitios con tendencias negativas, pero sólo dos fueron estadísticamente significativas. En contraste, un modelo lineal mixto de jerarquías sopesado por abundancia específica de sitio proporcionó una estimación de declinación en toda la UD de 16.4% año−1 y una declinación a tres generaciones de 93.2%. Un modelo bayesiano de jerarquías produjo una tendencia de declinación a tres generaciones de 91.3% y la distribución posterior mostró que el estimado tuvo una probabilidad >99% de exceder los umbrales para la categorización como especie en peligro. Concluimos que la estrategia bayesiana fue la más útil porque proporcionó una afirmación probabilística de la superación del umbral a favor de una recomendación de categorizar el estado como en riesgo.

Scaling advantage over path-integral Monte Carlo in quantum simulation of geometrically frustrated magnets.

The promise of quantum computing lies in harnessing programmable quantum devices for practical applications such as efficient simulation of quantum materials and condensed matter systems. One important task is the simulation of geometrically frustrated magnets in which topological phenomena can emerge from competition between quantum and thermal fluctuations. Here we report on experimental observations of equilibration in such simulations, measured on up to 1440 qubits with microsecond resolution. By initializing the system in a state with topological obstruction, we observe quantum annealing (QA) equilibration timescales in excess of one microsecond. Measurements indicate a dynamical advantage in the quantum simulation compared with spatially local update dynamics of path-integral Monte Carlo (PIMC). The advantage increases with both system size and inverse temperature, exceeding a million-fold speedup over an efficient CPU implementation. PIMC is a leading classical method for such simulations, and a scaling advantage of this type was recently shown to be impossible in certain restricted settings. This is therefore an important piece of experimental evidence that PIMC does not simulate QA dynamics even for sign-problem-free Hamiltonians, and that near-term quantum devices can be used to accelerate computational tasks of practical relevance.

Determining residence patterns of rainbow trout using laser ablation inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (LA-ICP-MS) analysis of selenium in otoliths.

Toxicological studies are often hampered by concerns of fish residency in the industrial effluent being evaluated. Contaminants in muscle or visceral tissue are useful indicators of recent exposure, but depuration, metabolic transformation, and tissue recompartmentalization of contaminants makes their use as temporal markers tenuous. Otoliths are metabolically stable and can provide temporal resolution for exposure to some elements that are incorporated into their calcified structure, including the divalent cations Sr, Zn, and Mn. Here we provide the first determinations of selenium, an anion in biological systems, in the otoliths of rainbow trout captured from a site receiving runoff with elevated selenium from a coal mine operation. Concentrations of selenium in annual growth zones of otoliths suggest that fish from the mine-impacted system are recent immigrants from nearby reference streams not receiving selenium-bearing effluent.

Developmental effects of bioaccumulated selenium in eggs and larvae of two salmonid species.

Elevated concentrations of Se have been detected in cold, flowing water habitats near uranium and coal mines in Canada. Fish from these systems have concentrations of Se in their tissues that exceed toxic effect thresholds that have been established for warm-water fishes. However, the applicability of toxic effect thresholds and guidelines to cold water, lotic habitats is a matter of contention in the literature since most cases of Se toxicosis have been documented in standing, warm-water systems. To examine the possibility of impaired reproduction in wild rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) and brook trout (Salvelinusfontinalis) near coal mining activity in the northeastern slopes region of Alberta, Canada, spawn from both species were collected from exposure and reference sites. Gametes were fertilized in the laboratory, reared to the swim-up stage, and examined for deformities. A significant relationship was observed for rainbow trout between the amount of Se in eggs and the incidence of developmental abnormalities, specifically craniofacial defects, skeletal deformities, and edema. These associations approximate exponential functions with probabilities that 15% of the population would be affected occurring between 8.8 and 10.5 microg Se per gram of wet egg weight, based on probit analysis. These relationships are similar to those described for centrarchids inhabiting a seleniferous warm-water lake. No such relationships were established for brook trout.