Patterns of SARS-CoV-2 circulation revealed by a nationwide sewage surveillance programme, the Netherlands, August 2020 to February 2022.

BackgroundSurveillance of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater offers a near real-time tool to track circulation of SARS-CoV-2 at a local scale. However, individual measurements of SARS-CoV-2 in sewage are noisy, inherently variable and can be left-censored.AimWe aimed to infer latent virus loads in a comprehensive sewage surveillance programme that includes all sewage treatment plants (STPs) in the Netherlands and covers 99.6% of the Dutch population.MethodsWe applied a multilevel Bayesian penalised spline model to estimate time- and STP-specific virus loads based on water flow-adjusted SARS-CoV-2 qRT-PCR data for one to four sewage samples per week for each of the more than 300 STPs.ResultsThe model captured the epidemic upsurges and downturns in the Netherlands, despite substantial day-to-day variation in the measurements. Estimated STP virus loads varied by more than two orders of magnitude, from ca 1012 virus particles per 100,000 persons per day in the epidemic trough in August 2020 to almost 1015 per 100,000 in many STPs in January 2022. The timing of epidemics at the local level was slightly shifted between STPs and municipalities, which resulted in less pronounced peaks and troughs at the national level.ConclusionAlthough substantial day-to-day variation is observed in virus load measurements, wastewater-based surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 that is performed at high sampling frequency can track long-term progression of an epidemic at a local scale in near real time.

Hyper-radiosensitivity affects low-dose acute myeloid leukemia incidence in a mathematical model.

In vitro experiments show that the cells possibly responsible for radiation-induced acute myeloid leukemia (rAML) exhibit low-dose hyper-radiosensitivity (HRS). In these cells, HRS is responsible for excess cell killing at low doses. Besides the endpoint of cell killing, HRS has also been shown to stimulate the low-dose formation of chromosomal aberrations such as deletions. Although HRS has been investigated extensively, little is known about the possible effect of HRS on low-dose cancer risk. In CBA mice, rAML can largely be explained in terms of a radiation-induced Sfpi1 deletion and a point mutation in the remaining Sfpi1 gene copy. The aim of this paper is to present and quantify possible mechanisms through which HRS may influence low-dose rAML incidence in CBA mice. To accomplish this, a mechanistic rAML CBA mouse model was developed to study HRS-dependent AML onset after low-dose photon irradiation. The rAML incidence was computed under the assumptions that target cells: (1) do not exhibit HRS; (2) HRS only stimulates cell killing; or (3) HRS stimulates cell killing and the formation of the Sfpi1 deletion. In absence of HRS (control), the rAML dose-response curve can be approximated with a linear-quadratic function of the absorbed dose. Compared to the control, the assumption that HRS stimulates cell killing lowered the rAML incidence, whereas increased incidence was observed at low doses if HRS additionally stimulates the induction of the Sfpi1 deletion. In conclusion, cellular HRS affects the number of surviving pre-leukemic cells with an Sfpi1 deletion which, depending on the HRS assumption, directly translates to a lower/higher probability of developing rAML. Low-dose HRS may affect cancer risk in general by altering the probability that certain mutations occur/persist.

Modeling low-dose radiation-induced acute myeloid leukemia in male CBA/H mice.

The effect of low-dose ionizing radiation exposure on leukemia incidence remains poorly understood. Possible dose-response curves for various forms of leukemia are largely based on cohorts of atomic bomb survivors. Animal studies can contribute to an improved understanding of radiation-induced acute myeloid leukemia (rAML) in humans. In male CBA/H mice, incidence of rAML can be described by a two-hit model involving a radiation-induced deletion with Sfpi1 gene copy loss and a point mutation in the remaining Sfpi1 allele. In the present study (historical) mouse data were used and these processes were translated into a mathematical model to study photon-induced low-dose AML incidence in male CBA/H mice following acute exposure. Numerical model solutions for low-dose rAML incidence and diagnosis times could respectively be approximated with a model linear-quadratic in radiation dose and a normal cumulative distribution function. Interestingly, the low-dose incidence was found to be proportional to the modeled number of cells carrying the Sfpi1 deletion present per mouse following exposure. After making only model-derived high-dose rAML estimates available to extrapolate from, the linear-quadratic model could be used to approximate low-dose rAML incidence calculated with our mouse model. The accuracy in estimating low-dose rAML incidence when extrapolating from a linear model using a low-dose effectiveness factor was found to depend on whether a data transformation was used in the curve fitting procedure.