Optimal conservation resource allocation under variable economic and ecological time discounting rates in boreal forest.

Resource allocation to multiple alternative conservation actions is a complex task. A common trade-off occurs between protection of smaller, expensive, high-quality areas versus larger, cheaper, partially degraded areas. We investigate optimal allocation into three actions in boreal forest: current standard forest management rules, setting aside of mature stands, or setting aside of clear-cuts. We first estimated how habitat availability for focal indicator species and economic returns from timber harvesting develop through time as a function of forest type and action chosen. We then developed an optimal resource allocation by accounting for budget size and habitat availability of indicator species in different forest types. We also accounted for the perspective adopted towards sustainability, modeled via temporal preference and economic and ecological time discounting. Controversially, we found that in boreal forest set-aside followed by protection of clear-cuts can become a winning cost-effective strategy when accounting for habitat requirements of multiple species, long planning horizon, and limited budget. It is particularly effective when adopting a long-term sustainability perspective, and accounting for present revenues from timber harvesting. The present analysis assesses the cost-effective conditions to allocate resources into an inexpensive conservation strategy that nevertheless has potential to produce high ecological values in the future.

Applying a framework for landscape planning under climate change for the conservation of biodiversity in the Finnish boreal forest.

Conservation strategies are often established without consideration of the impact of climate change. However, this impact is expected to threaten species and ecosystem persistence and to have dramatic effects towards the end of the 21st century. Landscape suitability for species under climate change is determined by several interacting factors including dispersal and human land use. Designing effective conservation strategies at regional scales to improve landscape suitability requires measuring the vulnerabilities of specific regions to climate change and determining their conservation capacities. Although methods for defining vulnerability categories are available, methods for doing this in a systematic, cost-effective way have not been identified. Here, we use an ecosystem model to define the potential resilience of the Finnish forest landscape by relating its current conservation capacity to its vulnerability to climate change. In applying this framework, we take into account the responses to climate change of a broad range of red-listed species with different niche requirements. This framework allowed us to identify four categories in which representation in the landscape varies among three IPCC emission scenarios (B1, low; A1B, intermediate; A2, high emissions): (i) susceptible (B1 = 24.7%, A1B = 26.4%, A2 = 26.2%), the most intact forest landscapes vulnerable to climate change, requiring management for heterogeneity and resilience; (ii) resilient (B1 = 2.2%, A1B = 0.5%, A2 = 0.6%), intact areas with low vulnerability that represent potential climate refugia and require conservation capacity maintenance; (iii) resistant (B1 = 6.7%, A1B = 0.8%, A2 = 1.1%), landscapes with low current conservation capacity and low vulnerability that are suitable for restoration projects; (iv) sensitive (B1 = 66.4%, A1B = 72.3%, A2 = 72.0%), low conservation capacity landscapes that are vulnerable and for which alternative conservation measures are required depending on the intensity of climate change. Our results indicate that the Finnish landscape is likely to be dominated by a very high proportion of sensitive and susceptible forest patches, thereby increasing uncertainty for landscape managers in the choice of conservation strategies.

Sensitivity of managed boreal forests in Finland to climate change, with implications for adaptive management.

This study investigated the sensitivity of managed boreal forests to climate change, with consequent needs to adapt the management to climate change. Model simulations representing the Finnish territory between 60 and 70 degrees N showed that climate change may substantially change the dynamics of managed boreal forests in northern Europe. This is especially probable at the northern and southern edges of this forest zone. In the north, forest growth may increase, but the special features of northern forests may be diminished. In the south, climate change may create a suboptimal environment for Norway spruce. Dominance of Scots pine may increase on less fertile sites currently occupied by Norway spruce. Birches may compete with Scots pine even in these sites and the dominance of birches may increase. These changes may reduce the total forest growth locally but, over the whole of Finland, total forest growth may increase by 44%, with an increase of 82% in the potential cutting drain. The choice of appropriate species and reduced rotation length may sustain the productivity of forest land under climate change.

A model for simulating the effects of changing climate on the functioning and structure of the boreal forest ecosystem: an approach based on object-oriented design.

We have developed a forest ecosystem model to assess the effects of climate change on the functioning and structure of boreal coniferous forests assuming that temperature and precipitation are the major variables of the niche occupied by a tree species. We specified weather patterns to a level representing the time constant of different physiological and ecological processes relevant to the survival, growth and death of trees. We thereby coupled the long-term dynamics of the forest ecosystem with climate through physiological mechanisms such as photosynthesis and respiration in terms of energy flow through the ecosystem. The hydrological and nutrient cycles couple the dynamics of the forest ecosystem with climate change through soil processes, which represent the thermal and hydraulic properties of the soil, and the decomposition of litter and humus with mineralization of nutrients. Simulations for southern Finland (62 degrees N) indicated that an increase in temperature of 5 degrees C over one hundred years could reduce soil water in Scots pine-dominated forest ecosystems. At the same time, the temperature increase could enhance photosynthesis up to 6-8% under current CO(2) concentrations (330 ppm) and up to 8-10% under elevated CO(2) concentrations (660 ppm). Because the elevated temperature and CO(2) concentration caused an increase in respiration (12-14% more than under the current climate), total stem production increased only up to 4% with a 5 degrees C increase in temperature and up to 6% when temperature and atmospheric CO(2) concentration were increased simultaneously. Because transpiration only increased up to 5% in response to elevated temperature and CO(2) concentration, the water use efficiency of Scots-pine dominated forest ecosystems increased up to 3%, particularly during the late rotation.