The Surprise Question and clinician-predicted prognosis: systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: The Surprise Question, 'Would you be surprised if this person died within the next year?' is a simple tool that can be used by clinicians to identify people within the last year of life. This review aimed to determine the accuracy of this assessment, across different healthcare settings, specialties, follow-up periods and respondents. METHODS: Searches were conducted of Medline, Embase, AMED, PubMed and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, from inception until 01 January 2024. Studies were included if they reported original data on the ability of the Surprise Question to predict survival. For each study (including subgroups), sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values and accuracy were determined. RESULTS: Our dataset comprised 56 distinct cohorts, including 68 829 patients. In a pooled analysis, the sensitivity of the Surprise Question was 0.69 ((0.64 to 0.74) I2=97.2%), specificity 0.69 ((0.63 to 0.74) I2=99.7%), positive predictive value 0.40 ((0.35 to 0.45) I2=99.4%), negative predictive value 0.89 ((0.87 to 0.91) I2=99.7%) and accuracy 0.71 ((0.68 to 0.75) I2=99.3%). The prompt performed best in populations with high event rates, shorter timeframes and when posed to more experienced respondents. CONCLUSIONS: The Surprise Question demonstrated modest accuracy with considerable heterogeneity across the population to which it was applied and to whom it was posed. Prospective studies should test whether the prompt can facilitate timely access to palliative care services, as originally envisioned. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD32022298236.

Is conduction system pacing a panacea for pacemaker therapy?

INTRODUCTION: While supported by robust evidence and decades of clinical experience, right ventricular apical pacing for bradycardia is associated with a risk of progressive left ventricular dysfunction. Cardiac resynchronization therapy for heart failure with reduced ejection fraction can result in limited electrical resynchronization due to anatomical constraints and epicardial stimulation. In both settings, directly stimulating the conduction system below the atrio-ventricular node (either the bundle of His or the left bundle branch area) has potential to overcome these limitations. Conduction system pacing has met with considerable enthusiasm in view of the more physiological electrical conduction pattern, is rapidly becoming the preferred option of pacing for bradycardia, and is gaining momentum as an alternative to conventional biventricular pacing. AREAS COVERED: This article provides a review of the current efficacy and safety data for both people requiring treatment for bradycardia and the management of heart failure with conduction delay and discusses the possible future roles for conduction system pacing in routine clinical practice. EXPERT OPINION: Conduction system pacing might be the holy grail of pacemaker therapy without the disadvantages of current approaches. However, hypothesis and enthusiasm are no match for robust data, demonstrating at least equivalent efficacy and safety to standard approaches.

Studying Adipose Endothelial Cell/Adipocyte Cross-Talk in Human Subcutaneous Adipose Tissue.

Microvascular endothelial cells (MVECs) have many critical roles, including control of vascular tone, regulation of thrombosis, and angiogenesis. Significant heterogeneity in endothelial cell (EC) genotype and phenotype depends on their vascular bed and host disease state. The ability to isolate MVECs from tissue-specific vascular beds and individual patient groups offers the opportunity to directly compare MVEC function in different disease states. Here, using subcutaneous adipose tissue (SAT) taken at the time of insertion of cardiac implantable electronic devices (CIED), we describe a method for the isolation of a pure population of functional human subcutaneous adipose tissue MVEC (hSATMVEC) and an experimental model of hSATMVEC-adipocyte cross-talk. hSATMVEC were isolated following enzymatic digestion of SAT by incubation with anti-CD31 antibody-coated magnetic beads and passage through magnetic columns. hSATMVEC were grown and passaged on gelatin-coated plates. Experiments used cells at passages 2-4. Cells maintained classic features of EC morphology until at least passage 5. Flow cytometric assessment showed 99.5% purity of isolated hSATMVEC, defined as CD31+/CD144+/CD45-. Isolated hSATMVEC from controls had a population doubling time of approximately 57 h, and active proliferation was confirmed using a cell proliferation imaging kit. Isolated hSATMVEC function was assessed using their response to insulin stimulation and angiogenic tube-forming potential. We then established an hSATMVEC-subcutaneous adipocyte co-culture model to study cellular cross-talk and demonstrated a downstream effect of hSATMVEC on adipocyte function. hSATMVEC can be isolated from SAT taken at the time of CIED insertion and are of sufficient purity to both experimentally phenotype and study hSATMVEC-adipocyte cross-talk.

Diabetes mellitus does not alter mortality or hospitalisation risk in patients with newly diagnosed heart failure with preserved ejection fraction: Time to rethink pathophysiological models of disease progression.

INTRODUCTION: Type 2 diabetes is a common and adverse prognostic co-morbidity for patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF). The effect of diabetes on long-term outcomes for heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) is less established. METHODS: Prospective cohort study of patients referred to a regional HF clinic with newly diagnosed with HFrEF and HFpEF according to the 2016 European Society of Cardiology guidelines. The association between diabetes, all-cause mortality and hospitalisation was quantified using Kaplan-Meier or Cox regression analysis. RESULTS: Between 1st May 2012 and 1st May 2013, of 960 unselected consecutive patients referred with suspected HF, 464 and 314 patients met the criteria for HFpEF and HFrEF respectively. Within HFpEF and HFrEF groups, patients with diabetes were more frequently male and in both groups patients with diabetes were more likely to be treated with ß-adrenoceptor antagonists and angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors. After adjustment for age, sex, medical therapy and co-morbidities, diabetes was associated with increased mortality in individuals with HFrEF (HR 1.46 95% CI: 1.05-2.02; p = .023), but not in those with HFpEF (HR 1.26 95% CI 0.92-1.72; p = .146). CONCLUSION: In unselected patients with newly diagnosed HF, diabetes is not an adverse prognostic marker in patients with HFpEF, but is in HFrEF.

Sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors influence skeletal muscle pathology in patients with heart failure and reduced ejection fraction.

AIMS: Patients with heart failure and reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) exhibit skeletal muscle pathology, which contributes to symptoms and decreased quality of life. Sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors (SGLT2i) improve clinical outcomes in HFrEF but their mechanism of action remains poorly understood. We aimed, therefore, to determine whether SGLT2i influence skeletal muscle pathology in patients with HFrEF. METHODS AND RESULTS: Muscle biopsies from 28 male patients with HFrEF (New York Heart association class I-III) treated with SGLT2i (>12 months) or without SGLT2i were compared. Comprehensive analyses of muscle structure (immunohistochemistry), transcriptome (RNA sequencing), and metabolome (liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry) were performed, and serum inflammatory profiling (ELISA). Experiments in mice (n = 16) treated with SGLT2i were also performed. Myofiber atrophy was ~20% less in patients taking SGLT2i (p = 0.07). Transcriptomics and follow-up measures identified a unique signature in patients taking SGLT2i related to beneficial effects on atrophy, metabolism, and inflammation. Metabolomics identified influenced tryptophan metabolism in patients taking SGLT2i: kynurenic acid was 24% higher and kynurenine was 32% lower (p < 0.001). Serum profiling identified that SGLT2i treatment was associated with lower (p < 0.05) pro-inflammatory cytokines by 26-64% alongside downstream muscle interleukin (IL)-6-JAK/STAT3 signalling (p = 008 and 0.09). Serum IL-6 and muscle kynurenine were correlated (R = 0.65; p < 0.05). Muscle pathology was lower in mice treated with SGLT2i indicative of a conserved mammalian response to treatment. CONCLUSIONS: Treatment with SGLT2i influenced skeletal muscle pathology in patients with HFrEF and was associated with anti-atrophic, anti-inflammatory, and pro-metabolic effects. These changes may be regulated via IL-6-kynurenine signalling. Together, clinical improvements following SGLT2i treatment in patients with HFrEF may be partly explained by their positive effects on skeletal muscle pathology.