Impacts of ocean acidification on intertidal benthic foraminiferal growth and calcification.

Foraminifera are expected to be particularly susceptible to future changes in ocean carbonate chemistry as a function of increased atmospheric CO2. Studies in an experimental recirculating seawater system were performed with a dominant benthic foraminiferal species collected from intertidal mudflats. We investigated the experimental impacts of ocean acidification on survival, growth/calcification, morphology and the biometric features of a calcareous species Elphidium williamsoni. Foraminifera were exposed for 6 weeks to four different pH treatments that replicated future scenarios of a high CO2 atmosphere resulting in lower seawater pH. Results revealed that declining seawater pH caused a decline in foraminiferal survival rate and growth/calcification (mainly through test weight reduction). Scanning electron microscopy image analysis of live specimens at the end of the experimental period show changes in foraminiferal morphology with clear signs of corrosion and cracking on the test surface, septal bridges, sutures and feeding structures of specimens exposed to the lowest pH conditions. These findings suggest that the morphological changes observed in shell feeding structures may serve to alter: (1) foraminiferal feeding efficiency and their long-term ecological competitiveness, (2) the energy transferred within the benthic food web with a subsequent shift in benthic community structures and (3) carbon cycling and total CaCO3 production, both highly significant processes in coastal waters. These experimental results open-up the possibility of modelling future impacts of ocean acidification on both calcification and dissolution in benthic foraminifera within mid-latitude intertidal environments, with potential implications for understanding the changing marine carbon cycle.

Disequilibrium, Adaptation, and the Norse Settlement of Greenland.

There is increasing evidence to suggest that arctic cultures and ecosystems have followed non-linear responses to climate change. Norse Scandinavian farmers introduced agriculture to sub-arctic Greenland in the late tenth century, creating synanthropic landscapes and utilising seasonally abundant marine and terrestrial resources. Using a niche-construction framework and data from recent survey work, studies of diet, and regional-scale climate proxies we examine the potential mismatch between this imported agricultural niche and the constraints of the environment from the tenth to the fifteenth centuries. We argue that landscape modification conformed the Norse to a Scandinavian style of agriculture throughout settlement, structuring and limiting the efficacy of seasonal hunting strategies. Recent climate data provide evidence of sustained cooling from the mid thirteenth century and climate variation from the early fifteenth century. Archaeological evidence suggests that the Norse made incremental adjustments to the changing sub-arctic environment, but were limited by cultural adaptations made in past environments.

Impact of small-scale vegetation structure on tephra layer preservation.

The factors that influence tephra layer taphonomy are poorly understood, but vegetation cover is likely to play a role in the preservation of terrestrial tephra deposits. The impact of vegetation on tephra layer preservation is important because: 1) the morphology of tephra layers could record key characteristics of past land surfaces and 2) vegetation-driven variability in tephra thickness could affect attempts to infer eruption and dispersion parameters. We investigated small- (metre-) scale interactions between vegetation and a thin (<10 cm), recent tephra layer. We conducted surveys of vegetation structure and tephra thickness at two locations which received a similar tephra deposit, but had contrasting vegetation cover (moss vs shrub). The tephra layer was thicker and less variable under shrub cover. Vegetation structure and layer thickness were correlated on the moss site but not under shrub cover, where the canopy reduced the influence of understory vegetation on layer morphology. Our results show that vegetation structure can influence tephra layer thickness on both small and medium (site) scales. These findings suggest that some tephra layers may carry a signal of past vegetation cover. They also have implications for the sampling effort required to reliably estimate the parameters of initial deposits.

Climate challenges, vulnerabilities, and food security.

This paper identifies rare climate challenges in the long-term history of seven areas, three in the subpolar North Atlantic Islands and four in the arid-to-semiarid deserts of the US Southwest. For each case, the vulnerability to food shortage before the climate challenge is quantified based on eight variables encompassing both environmental and social domains. These data are used to evaluate the relationship between the "weight" of vulnerability before a climate challenge and the nature of social change and food security following a challenge. The outcome of this work is directly applicable to debates about disaster management policy.

Projections of temperature-attributable premature deaths in 209 U.S. cities using a cluster-based Poisson approach.

BACKGROUND: A warming climate will affect future temperature-attributable premature deaths. This analysis is the first to project these deaths at a near national scale for the United States using city and month-specific temperature-mortality relationships. METHODS: We used Poisson regressions to model temperature-attributable premature mortality as a function of daily average temperature in 209 U.S. cities by month. We used climate data to group cities into clusters and applied an Empirical Bayes adjustment to improve model stability and calculate cluster-based month-specific temperature-mortality functions. Using data from two climate models, we calculated future daily average temperatures in each city under Representative Concentration Pathway 6.0. Holding population constant at 2010 levels, we combined the temperature data and cluster-based temperature-mortality functions to project city-specific temperature-attributable premature deaths for multiple future years which correspond to a single reporting year. Results within the reporting periods are then averaged to account for potential climate variability and reported as a change from a 1990 baseline in the future reporting years of 2030, 2050 and 2100. RESULTS: We found temperature-mortality relationships that vary by location and time of year. In general, the largest mortality response during hotter months (April - September) was in July in cities with cooler average conditions. The largest mortality response during colder months (October-March) was at the beginning (October) and end (March) of the period. Using data from two global climate models, we projected a net increase in premature deaths, aggregated across all 209 cities, in all future periods compared to 1990. However, the magnitude and sign of the change varied by cluster and city. CONCLUSIONS: We found increasing future premature deaths across the 209 modeled U.S. cities using two climate model projections, based on constant temperature-mortality relationships from 1997 to 2006 without any future adaptation. However, results varied by location, with some locations showing net reductions in premature temperature-attributable deaths with climate change.

Anticipating land surface change.

The interplay of human actions and natural processes over varied spatial and temporal scales can result in abrupt transitions between contrasting land surface states. Understanding these transitions is a key goal of sustainability science because they can represent abrupt losses of natural capital. This paper recognizes flickering between alternate land surface states in advance of threshold change and critical slowing down in advance of both threshold changes and noncritical transformation. The early warning signals we observe are rises in autocorrelation, variance, and skewness within millimeter-resolution thickness measurements of tephra layers deposited in A.D. 2010 and A.D. 2011. These signals reflect changing patterns of surface vegetation, which are known to provide early warning signals of critical transformations. They were observed toward migrating soil erosion fronts, cryoturbation limits, and expanding deflation zones, thus providing potential early warning signals of land surface change. The record of the spatial patterning of vegetation contained in contemporary tephra layers shows how proximity to land surface change could be assessed in the widespread regions affected by shallow layers of volcanic fallout (those that can be subsumed within the existing vegetation cover). This insight shows how we could use tephra layers in the stratigraphic record to identify "near misses," close encounters with thresholds that did not lead to tipping points, and thus provide additional tools for archaeology, sustainability science, and contemporary land management.

Cultural adaptation, compounding vulnerabilities and conjunctures in Norse Greenland.

Norse Greenland has been seen as a classic case of maladaptation by an inflexible temperate zone society extending into the arctic and collapse driven by climate change. This paper, however, recognizes the successful arctic adaptation achieved in Norse Greenland and argues that, although climate change had impacts, the end of Norse settlement can only be truly understood as a complex socioenvironmental system that includes local and interregional interactions operating at different geographic and temporal scales and recognizes the cultural limits to adaptation of traditional ecological knowledge. This paper is not focused on a single discovery and its implications, an approach that can encourage monocausal and environmentally deterministic emphasis to explanation, but it is the product of sustained international interdisciplinary investigations in Greenland and the rest of the North Atlantic. It is based on data acquisitions, reinterpretation of established knowledge, and a somewhat different philosophical approach to the question of collapse. We argue that the Norse Greenlanders created a flexible and successful subsistence system that responded effectively to major environmental challenges but probably fell victim to a combination of conjunctures of large-scale historic processes and vulnerabilities created by their successful prior response to climate change. Their failure was an inability to anticipate an unknowable future, an inability to broaden their traditional ecological knowledge base, and a case of being too specialized, too small, and too isolated to be able to capitalize on and compete in the new protoworld system extending into the North Atlantic in the early 15th century.

Plague and landscape resilience in premodern Iceland.

In debates on societal collapse, Iceland occupies a position of precarious survival, defined by not becoming extinct, like Norse Greenland, but having endured, sometimes by the narrowest of margins. Classic decline narratives for late medieval to early modern Iceland stress compounding adversities, where climate, trade, political domination, unsustainable practices, and environmental degradation conspire with epidemics and volcanism to depress the Icelanders and turn the once-proud Vikings and Saga writers into one of Europe's poorest nations. A mainstay of this narrative is the impact of incidental setbacks such as plague and volcanism, which are seen to have compounded and exacerbated underlying structural problems. This research shows that this view is not correct. We present a study of landscape change that uses 15 precisely dated tephra layers spanning the whole 1,200-y period of human settlement in Iceland. These tephras have provided 2,625 horizons of known age within 200 stratigraphic sections to form a high-resolution spatial and temporal record of change. This finding shows short-term (50 y) declines in geomorphological activity after two major plagues in A.D. 15th century, variations that probably mirrored variations in the population. In the longer term, the geomorphological impact of climate changes from the 14th century on is delayed, and landscapes (as well as Icelandic society) exhibit resilience over decade to century timescales. This finding is not a simple consequence of depopulation but a reflection of how Icelandic society responded with a scaling back of their economy, conservation of core functionality, and entrenchment of the established order.

Intracardiac ultrasonic suture welding for knotless mitral valve replacement.

OBJECTIVE: The difficulty in tying multiple knots with endoscopic instruments constitutes a technical obstacle to the development of closed-chest valve surgery. The following set of experiments was undertaken to ascertain the in-vivo feasibility of using an intracardiac ultrasonic welding device for knotless suture fixation during mitral valve replacement (MVR). METHODS: Five adult sheep weighing 48-52 kg underwent MVR with a commercially available mechanical prosthesis, using pledgetted interrupted polypropylene sutures. An ultrasonic suture welder designed for intracardiac use was used to adjust suture tension and fuse strands together without knots. Echocardiographic assessment of the mitral prosthesis was carried out at baseline and after maintenance of supraphysiologic arterial pressures for 60 min. Subsequently, the animals' explanted hearts were assessed under sustained left ventricular (LV) pressurization to 180 mmHg in an ex-vivo pressure-loop system. RESULTS: MVR was successfully performed in all animals and welds reliably completed in less than 1 s. One sheep could not successfully be weaned off cardiopulmonary bypass; however, a normal prosthetic valve implant was confirmed at post-mortem examination. Echocardiographic assessment prior to and during LV pressurization revealed normal seating and function of the prosthesis in all cases. At post-mortem examination all valves were adequately implanted, suture tails laid flat on the surface of the prosthesis' sewing ring, welded suture strands were intact and accurately point-fused together, and no evidence of perivalvular leak was found around any of the prostheses despite sustained LV pressurization. CONCLUSIONS: This new modality proved reliable in an acute sheep model of MVR and could constitute a promising avenue towards facilitation of total endoscopic valve procedures in humans.