Brief Report: Self-Reported HIV-Positive Status but Subsequent HIV-Negative Test Results in Population-Based HIV Impact Assessment Survey Participants-11 Sub-Saharan African Countries, 2015-2018.

BACKGROUND: HIV testing is a critical step to accessing antiretroviral therapy (ART) because early diagnosis can facilitate earlier initiation of ART. This study presents aggregated data of individuals who self-reported being HIV-positive but subsequently tested HIV-negative during nationally representative Population-Based HIV Impact Assessment surveys conducted in 11 countries from 2015 to 2018. METHOD: Survey participants aged 15 years or older were interviewed by trained personnel using a standard questionnaire to determine HIV testing history and self-reported HIV status. Home-based HIV testing and counseling using rapid diagnostic tests with return of results were performed by survey staff according to the respective national HIV testing services algorithms on venous blood samples. Laboratory-based confirmatory HIV testing for all participants identified as HIV-positives and self-reported positives, irrespective of HIV testing results, was conducted and included Geenius HIV-1/2 and DNA polymerase chain reaction if Geenius was negative or indeterminate. RESULTS: Of the 16,630 participants who self-reported as HIV-positive, 16,432 (98.6%) were confirmed as HIV-positive and 198 (1.4%) were HIV-negative by subsequent laboratory-based testing. Participants who self-reported as HIV-positive but tested HIV-negative were significantly younger than 30 years, less likely to have received ART, and less likely to have received a CD4 test compared with participants who self-reported as HIV-positive with laboratory-confirmed infection. CONCLUSIONS: A small proportion of self-reported HIV-positive individuals could not be confirmed as positive, which could be due to initial misdiagnosis, deliberate wrong self-report, or misunderstanding of the questionnaire. As universal ART access is expanding, it is increasingly important to ensure quality of HIV testing and confirmation of HIV diagnosis before ART initiation.

Risk Factors for Recent HIV Infections among Adults in 14 Countries in Africa Identified by Population-Based HIV Impact Assessment Surveys, 2015-2019.

Identifying persons who have newly acquired HIV infections is critical for characterizing the HIV epidemic direction. We analyzed pooled data from nationally representative Population-Based HIV Impact Assessment surveys conducted across 14 countries in Africa for recent infection risk factors. We included adults 15-49 years of age who had sex during the previous year and used a recent infection testing algorithm to distinguish recent from long-term infections. We collected risk factor information via participant interviews and assessed correlates of recent infection using multinomial logistic regression, incorporating each survey's complex sampling design. Compared with HIV-negative persons, persons with higher odds of recent HIV infection were women, were divorced/separated/widowed, had multiple recent sex partners, had a recent HIV-positive sex partner or one with unknown status, and lived in communities with higher HIV viremia prevalence. Prevention programs focusing on persons at higher risk for HIV and their sexual partners will contribute to reducing HIV incidence.

Individual, Community, and Health Facility Predictors of Postnatal Care Utilization in Rural Tanzania: A Multilevel Analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Postnatal care (PNC) is an underused service in the continuum of care for mothers and infants in sub-Saharan Africa. There is little evidence on health facility characteristics that influence PNC utilization. Understanding PNC use in the context of individual, community, and health facility characteristics may help in the development of programs for increased use. METHODS: We analyzed data from 4,353 women with recent births in Kigoma Region, Tanzania, and their use of PNC (defined as at least 1 checkup in a health facility in the region within 42 days of delivery). We used a mixed-effects multilevel logistic regression analysis to explain PNC use while accounting for household, individual, and community characteristics from a regionwide population-based reproductive health survey and for distance to and adequacy of proximal health facilities from a health facility assessment. RESULTS: PNC utilization rate was low (15.9%). Women had significantly greater odds of PNC if they had a high level of decision-making autonomy (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]: 1.56; 95% confidence interval [CI]=1.11, 2.17); had a companion at birth (aOR: 1.57; 95% CI=1.19, 2.07); had cesarean delivery (aOR: 2.27; 95% CI=1.47, 3.48); resided in Kasulu district (aOR: 3.28; 95% CI=1.94, 5.52); or resided in a community that had at least 1 adequate health facility within 5 km (aOR: 2.15; 95% CI=1.06, 3.88). CONCLUSION: Women's decision-making autonomy and presence of companionship at birth, as well as proximity to a health facility with adequate infrastructure, equipment, and workforce, were associated with increased PNC use. More efforts toward advocating for the health benefits of PNC using multiple channels and increasing quality of care in health facilities, including companionship at birth, can increase utilization rates.

The epidemiology of HIV population viral load in twelve sub-Saharan African countries.

BACKGROUND: We examined the epidemiology and transmission potential of HIV population viral load (VL) in 12 sub-Saharan African countries. METHODS: We analyzed data from Population-based HIV Impact Assessments (PHIAs), large national household-based surveys conducted between 2015 and 2019 in Cameroon, Cote d'Ivoire, Eswatini, Kenya, Lesotho, Malawi, Namibia, Rwanda, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. Blood-based biomarkers included HIV serology, recency of HIV infection, and VL. We estimated the number of people living with HIV (PLHIV) with suppressed viral load (<1,000 HIV-1 RNA copies/mL) and with unsuppressed viral load (viremic), the prevalence of unsuppressed HIV (population viremia), sex-specific HIV transmission ratios (number female incident HIV-1 infections/number unsuppressed male PLHIV per 100 persons-years [PY] and vice versa) and examined correlations between a variety of VL metrics and incident HIV. Country sample sizes ranged from 10,016 (Eswatini) to 30,637 (Rwanda); estimates were weighted and restricted to participants 15 years and older. RESULTS: The proportion of female PLHIV with viral suppression was higher than that among males in all countries, however, the number of unsuppressed females outnumbered that of unsuppressed males in all countries due to higher overall female HIV prevalence, with ratios ranging from 1.08 to 2.10 (median: 1.43). The spatial distribution of HIV seroprevalence, viremia prevalence, and number of unsuppressed adults often differed substantially within the same countries. The 1% and 5% of PLHIV with the highest VL on average accounted for 34% and 66%, respectively, of countries' total VL. HIV transmission ratios varied widely across countries and were higher for male-to-female (range: 2.3-28.3/100 PY) than for female-to-male transmission (range: 1.5-10.6/100 PY). In all countries mean log10 VL among unsuppressed males was higher than that among females. Correlations between VL measures and incident HIV varied, were weaker for VL metrics among females compared to males and were strongest for the number of unsuppressed PLHIV per 100 HIV-negative adults (R2 = 0.92). CONCLUSIONS: Despite higher proportions of viral suppression, female unsuppressed PLHIV outnumbered males in all countries examined. Unsuppressed male PLHIV have consistently higher VL and a higher risk of transmitting HIV than females. Just 5% of PLHIV account for almost two-thirds of countries' total VL. Population-level VL metrics help monitor the epidemic and highlight key programmatic gaps in these African countries.

Point of Care CD4 Testing in National Household Surveys - Results and Quality Indicators from Eleven Population-Based HIV Impact Assessment (PHIA) Surveys.

Population-based HIV Impact Assessments (PHIAs) are national household (HH) surveys that provide HIV diagnosis and CD4 testing with an immediate return of results. Accurate CD4 results improve HIV-positive participants' clinical care and inform the effectiveness of HIV programs. Here, we present CD4 results from the PHIA surveys that were conducted in 11 countries in sub-Saharan Africa between 2015 and 2018. All of the HIV-positive participants and 2 to 5% of the HIV-negative participants were offered Pima CD4 (Abbott, IL, USA) point-of-care (POC) tests. The quality of the CD4 test was ensured by conducting instrument verification, comprehensive training, quality control, a review of testing errors and an analysis of unweighted CD4 data by HIV status, age, gender, and antiretroviral (ARV) treatment status. Overall, CD4 testing was completed for 23,085 (99.5%) of the 23,209 HIV-positive and 7,329 (2.7%) of the 270,741 negative participants in 11 surveys. The instrument error rate was 11.3% (range, 4.4% to 15.7%). The median CD4 values among HIV-positive and HIV-negative participants (aged 15+) were 468 cells/mm3 (interquartile range [IQR], 307 to 654) and 811 cells/mm3 (IQR, 647 to 1,013), respectively. Among the HIV-positive participants (aged 15+), those with detectable ARVs had higher CD4 values (508 cells/mm3) than those with undetectable ARVs (385.5 cells/mm3). Among the HIV-positive participants (aged 15+), 11.4% (2,528/22,253) had a CD4 value of less than 200 cells/mm3, and approximately half of them (1,225/2,528 = 48.5%) had detectable ARVs, whereas 51.5% (1,303/2,528) had no detectable ARVs (P < 0.0001). We successfully implemented high quality POC CD4 testing using Pima instruments. Our data come from nationally representative surveys in 11 countries and provide unique insights regarding the CD4 distribution among HIV-positive individuals as well as the baseline CD4 values among HIV-negative individuals. IMPORTANCE The manuscript describes CD4 levels among HIV-positive individuals and baseline CD4 levels among HIV-negative individuals from 11 sub-Saharan countries, thereby highlighting the importance of CD4 markers in the context of the HIV epidemic. Despite increased ARV access in each country, advanced HIV disease (CD4 < 200 cells/mm3) persists among approximately 11% of HIV-positive individuals. Therefore, it is important that our findings are shared with the scientific community to assist with similar implementations of point-of-care testing and to conduct a review of HIV programmatic gaps.

Estimation of HIV-1 Incidence Using a Testing History-Based Method; Analysis From the Population-Based HIV Impact Assessment Survey Data in 12 African Countries.

BACKGROUND: Estimating HIV incidence is essential to monitoring progress in sub-Saharan African nations toward global epidemic control. One method for incidence estimation is to test nationally representative samples using laboratory-based incidence assays. An alternative method based on reported HIV testing history and the proportion of undiagnosed infections has recently been described. METHODS: We applied an HIV incidence estimation method which uses history of testing to nationally representative cross-sectional survey data from 12 sub-Saharan African nations with varying country-specific HIV prevalence. We compared these estimates with those derived from laboratory-based incidence assays. Participants were tested for HIV using the national rapid test algorithm and asked about prior HIV testing, date and result of their most recent test, and date of antiretroviral therapy initiation. RESULTS: The testing history-based method consistently produced results that are comparable and strongly correlated with estimates produced using a laboratory-based HIV incidence assay (ρ = 0.85). The testing history-based method produced incidence estimates that were more precise compared with the biomarker-based method. The testing history-based method identified sex-, age-, and geographic location-specific differences in incidence that were not detected using the biomarker-based method. CONCLUSIONS: The testing history-based method estimates are more precise and can produce age-specific and sex-specific incidence estimates that are informative for programmatic decisions. The method also allows for comparisons of the HIV transmission rate and other components of HIV incidence among and within countries. The testing history-based method is a useful tool for estimating and validating HIV incidence from cross-sectional survey data.

Methods for conducting trends analysis: roadmap for comparing outcomes from three national HIV Population-based household surveys in Kenya (2007, 2012, and 2018).

BACKGROUND: For assessing the HIV epidemic in Kenya, a series of independent HIV indicator household-based surveys of similar design can be used to investigate the trends in key indicators relevant to HIV prevention and control and to describe geographic and sociodemographic disparities, assess the impact of interventions, and develop strategies. We developed methods and tools to facilitate a robust analysis of trends across three national household-based surveys conducted in Kenya in 2007, 2012, and 2018. METHODS: We used data from the 2007 and 2012 Kenya AIDS Indicator surveys (KAIS 2007 and KAIS 2012) and the 2018 Kenya Population-based HIV Impact Assessment (KENPHIA 2018). To assess the design and other variables of interest from each study, variables were recoded to ensure that they had equivalent meanings across the three surveys. After assessing weighting procedures for comparability, we used the KAIS 2012 nonresponse weighting procedure to revise normalized KENPHIA weights. Analyses were restricted to geographic areas covered by all three surveys. The revised analysis files were then merged into a single file for pooled analysis. We assessed distributions of age, sex, household wealth, and urban/rural status to identify unexpected changes between surveys. To demonstrate how a trend analysis can be carried out, we used continuous, binary, and time-to-event variables as examples. Specifically, temporal trends in age at first sex and having received an HIV test in the last 12 months were used to demonstrate the proposed analytical approach. These were assessed with respondent-specific variables (age, sex, level of education, and marital status) and household variables (place of residence and wealth index). All analyses were conducted in SAS 9.4, but analysis files were created in Stata and R format to support additional analyses. RESULTS: This study demonstrates trends in selected indicators to illustrate the approach that can be used in similar settings. The incidence of early sexual debut decreased from 11.63 (95% CI: 10.95-12.34) per 1,000 person-years at risk in 2007 to 10.45 (95% CI: 9.75-11.2) per 1,000 person-years at risk in 2012 and to 9.58 (95% CI: 9.08-10.1) per 1,000 person-years at risk in 2018. HIV-testing rates increased from 12.6% (95% CI: 11.6%-13.6%) in 2007 to 56.1% (95% CI: 54.6%-57.6%) in 2012 but decreased slightly to 55.6% [95% CI: 54.6%-56.6%) in 2018. The decrease in incidence of early sexual debut could be convincingly demonstrated between 2007 and 2012 but not between 2012 and 2018. Similarly, there was virtually no difference between HIV Testing rates in 2012 and 2018. CONCLUSIONS: Our approach can be used to support trend comparisons for variables in HIV surveys in low-income settings. Independent national household surveys can be assessed for comparability, adjusted as appropriate, and used to estimate trends in key indicators. Analyzing trends over time can not only provide insights into Kenya's progress toward HIV epidemic control but also identify gaps.

Improving Sampling Efficiency for Determining Pediatric HIV Prevalence in National Surveys: Evidence From 8 Sub-Saharan African Countries.

BACKGROUND: Measurement of mother-to-child HIV transmission through population-based surveys requires large sample sizes because of low HIV prevalence among children. We estimate potential improvements in sampling efficiency resulting from a targeted sample design. SETTING: Eight countries in sub-Saharan Africa with completed Population-based HIV Impact Assessment (PHIA) surveys as of 2017. METHODS: The PHIA surveys used a geographically stratified 2-stage sample design with households sampled from randomly selected census enumeration areas. Children (0-14 years of age) were eligible for HIV testing within a random subsample of households (usually 50%). Estimates of child HIV prevalence in each country were calculated using jackknife replicate weights. We compared sample sizes and precision achieved using this design with a 2-phase disproportionate sample design applied to strata defined by maternal HIV status and mortality. RESULTS: HIV prevalence among children ranged from 0.4% (95% confidence interval: 0.2 to 0.6) in Tanzania to 2.8% (95% confidence interval: 2.2 to 3.4) in Eswatini with achieved relative standard errors between 11% and 21%. The expected precision improved in the targeted design in all countries included in the analysis, with proportionate reductions in mean squared error ranging from 27% in Eswatini to 61% in Tanzania, assuming an equal sample size. CONCLUSIONS: Population-based surveys of adult HIV prevalence that also measure child HIV prevalence should consider targeted sampling of children to reduce required sample size, increase precision, and increase the number of positive children tested. The findings from the PHIA surveys can be used as baseline data for informing future sample designs.

HIV-1 Recent Infection Testing Algorithm With Antiretroviral Drug Detection to Improve Accuracy of Incidence Estimates.

BACKGROUND: HIV-1 incidence calculation currently includes recency classification by HIV-1 incidence assay and unsuppressed viral load (VL ≥ 1000 copies/mL) in a recent infection testing algorithm (RITA). However, persons with recent classification not virally suppressed and taking antiretroviral (ARV) medication may be misclassified. SETTING: We used data from 13 African household surveys to describe the impact of an ARV-adjusted RITA on HIV-1 incidence estimates. METHODS: HIV-seropositive samples were tested for recency using the HIV-1 Limiting Antigen (LAg)-Avidity enzyme immunoassay, HIV-1 viral load, ARVs used in each country, and ARV drug resistance. LAg-recent result was defined as normalized optical density values ≤1.5. We compared HIV-1 incidence estimates using 2 RITA: RITA1: LAg-recent + VL ≥ 1000 copies/mL and RITA2: RITA1 + undetectable ARV. We explored RITA2 with self-reported ARV use and with clinical history. RESULTS: Overall, 357 adult HIV-positive participants were classified as having recent infection with RITA1. RITA2 reclassified 55 (15.4%) persons with detectable ARV as having long-term infection. Those with detectable ARV were significantly more likely to be aware of their HIV-positive status (84% vs. 10%) and had higher levels of drug resistance (74% vs. 26%) than those without detectable ARV. RITA2 incidence was lower than RITA1 incidence (range, 0%-30% decrease), resulting in decreased estimated new infections from 390,000 to 341,000 across the 13 countries. Incidence estimates were similar using detectable or self-reported ARV (R2 > 0.995). CONCLUSIONS: Including ARV in RITA2 improved the accuracy of HIV-1 incidence estimates by removing participants with likely long-term HIV infection.

Survival and HIV-Free Survival Among Children Aged ≤3 Years - Eight Sub-Saharan African Countries, 2015-2017.

Although mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) is preventable through antiretroviral treatment (ART) during pregnancy and postpartum, the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) estimates that 160,000 new HIV infections occurred among children in 2018 (1). Child survival and HIV-free survival rates* are standard measures of progress toward eliminating MTCT† (2). Nationally representative Population-based HIV Impact Assessment (PHIA)§ survey data, pooled from eight sub-Saharan African countries¶ were used to calculate survival probability among children aged ≤3 years by maternal HIV status during pregnancy and HIV-free survival probability among children aged ≤3 years born to women with HIV infection, stratified by maternal ART** status during pregnancy. Survival probability was significantly lower among children born to women with HIV infection (94.7%) than among those born to women without HIV infection (97.6%). HIV-free survival probability of children born to women with HIV infection differed significantly by the timing of initiation of maternal ART: 93.0% among children whose mothers received ART before pregnancy, 87.8% among those whose mothers initiated ART during pregnancy, and 53.4% among children whose mothers did not receive ART during pregnancy. Focusing on prevention of HIV acquisition and, among women of reproductive age with HIV infection, on early diagnosis of HIV infection and ART initiation when applicable, especially before pregnancy, can improve child survival and HIV-free survival.

Rapid reduction of maternal mortality in Uganda and Zambia through the saving mothers, giving life initiative: results of year 1 evaluation.

BACKGROUND: Achieving maternal mortality reduction as a development goal remains a major challenge in most low-resource countries. Saving Mothers, Giving Life (SMGL) is a multi-partner initiative designed to reduce maternal mortality rapidly in high mortality settings through community and facility evidence-based interventions and district-wide health systems strengthening that could reduce delays to appropriate obstetric care. METHODS: An evaluation employing multiple studies and data collection methods was used to compare baseline maternal outcomes to those during Year 1 in SMGL pilot districts in Uganda and Zambia. Studies include health facility assessments, pregnancy outcome monitoring, enhanced maternal mortality detection in facilities, and population-based investigation of community maternal deaths. Population-based evaluation used standard approaches and comparable indicators to measure outcome and impact, and to allow comparison of the SMGL implementation in unique country contexts. RESULTS: The evaluation found a 30% reduction in the population-based maternal mortality ratio (MMR) in Uganda during Year 1, from 452 to 316 per 100,000 live births. The MMR in health facilities declined by 35% in each country (from 534 to 345 in Uganda and from 310 to 202 in Zambia). The institutional delivery rate increased by 62% in Uganda and 35% in Zambia. The number of facilities providing emergency obstetric and newborn care (EmONC) rose from 10 to 25 in Uganda and from 7 to 11 in Zambia. Partial EmONC care became available in many more low and mid-level facilities. Cesarean section rates for all births increased by 23% in Uganda and 15% in Zambia. The proportion of women with childbirth complications delivered in EmONC facilities rose by 25% in Uganda and 23% in Zambia. Facility case fatality rates fell from 2.6 to 2.0% in Uganda and 3.1 to 2.0% in Zambia. CONCLUSIONS: Maternal mortality ratios fell significantly in one year in Uganda and Zambia following the introduction of the SMGL model. This model employed a comprehensive district system strengthening approach. The lessons learned from SMGL can inform policymakers and program managers in other low and middle income settings where similar approaches could be utilized to rapidly reduce preventable maternal deaths.

Female Genital Mutilation/Cutting in the United States: Updated Estimates of Women and Girls at Risk, 2012.

OBJECTIVES: In 1996, the U.S. Congress passed legislation making female genital mutilation/cutting (FGM/C) illegal in the United States. CDC published the first estimates of the number of women and girls at risk for FGM/C in 1997. Since 2012, various constituencies have again raised concerns about the practice in the United States. We updated an earlier estimate of the number of women and girls in the United States who were at risk for FGM/C or its consequences. METHODS: We estimated the number of women and girls who were at risk for undergoing FGM/C or its consequences in 2012 by applying country-specific prevalence of FGM/C to the estimated number of women and girls living in the United States who were born in that country or who lived with a parent born in that country. RESULTS: Approximately 513,000 women and girls in the United States were at risk for FGM/C or its consequences in 2012, which was more than three times higher than the earlier estimate, based on 1990 data. The increase in the number of women and girls younger than 18 years of age at risk for FGM/C was more than four times that of previous estimates. CONCLUSION: The estimated increase was wholly a result of rapid growth in the number of immigrants from FGM/C-practicing countries living in the United States and not from increases in FGM/C prevalence in those countries. Scientifically valid information regarding whether women or their daughters have actually undergone FGM/C and related information that can contribute to efforts to prevent the practice in the United States and provide needed health services to women who have undergone FGM/C are needed.

Ethnic inequality in Guatemalan women's use of modern reproductive health care.

CONTEXT: Guatemala has some of the poorest reproductive health indices and largest disparities in health in Latin America, particularly between indigenous and ladina women. To reduce these disparities, it is necessary to understand how indigenous women's disadvantages in linguistic, socioeconomic or residential characteristics relate to their underutilization of reproductive health services. METHODS: Logistic regression analyses of a nationally representative sample of women aged 15-49 from the 2008-2009 National Survey of Maternal and Infant Health were used to estimate ethnic disparities in women's use of institutional prenatal care and delivery, and in met demand for modern contraceptives. Using predicted probabilities, we estimated the extent to which these disparities were attributable to a language barrier among indigenous women and to their disadvantage in selected socioeconomic and residential characteristics. RESULTS: The ethnic difference in use of institutional prenatal care was small; however, institutional delivery was far less common among indigenous women than among ladina women (36% vs. 73%), as was met need for modern contraceptives (49% vs. 72%). Not speaking Spanish accounted for the largest portion of these ethnic differentials. Indigenous women's poor education and rural residence made up smaller portions of the ethnic differential in modern contraceptive use than did their economic disadvantage. CONCLUSION: The large proportion of indigenous women who use institutional prenatal care suggests that further integrating the three services may increase their use of institutional delivery and modern contraceptives. Adding speakers of local Mayan languages to the staff of health facilities could also help increase use.

Exploring the connections between HIV serostatus and individual, household, and community socioeconomic resources: evidence from two population-based surveys in Kenya.

The positive association between health and socioeconomic status (SES) is well documented. However, available empirical evidence on the SES gradients of HIV serostatus is mixed, and few studies have explored the effects of community SES indicators on individual's HIV risk. Using nationally representative data of women and men from the 2003 Demographic and Health Survey and the 2007 AIDS Indicator Survey from Kenya, we assessed the associations between HIV serostatus and SES as measured by educational attainment and household wealth at the individual/household and community levels. Additionally, we explored changes in these associations between 2003 and 2007. Results from bivariate and cohort analyses showed that during this period, HIV burden shifted from higher to lower SES subgroups at both the individual/household and community levels, particularly among women aged 15-24 years. Results from multi-level logistic regression models showed that this shift was generally significant among women. In addition, communities' collective educational attainment, measured as the percentage of residents with some secondary schooling or higher, was a more significant predictor and protective factor for HIV risk than individual/household-level SES indicators for women in 2007 and men in both years. Our findings highlight the relevance of community-level SES to HIV dynamics in Kenya between 2003 and 2007.

Prevalence and correlates of sexual risk behaviors among Jamaican adolescents.

CONTEXT: Despite high levels of sexual activity and risk behaviors among Jamaican youth, few population-based studies have examined their prevalence or correlates. METHODS: The prevalence of three sexual risk behaviors was assessed using data from the 2008-2009 Jamaican ?Reproductive Health Survey on a subsample of adolescents aged 15-19 who neither were in a union nor had a child. Factors associated with the risk behaviors were examined separately for females and males, using bivariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression. RESULTS: In the year prior to the survey, 32% of females and 54% of males had had sexual intercourse; of those, 12% and 52%, respectively, had had more than one sexual partner, and 49% and 46% had used condoms ?inconsistently or not at all. School enrollment was protective against females being sexually active and males having multiple partners. Females who were enrolled in an age-appropriate or higher grade had decreased odds of using condoms inconsistently or not at all, and males who were enrolled in a lower than age-appropriate grade had a decreased risk of being sexually active. Males in the lowest wealth tercile were less likely than those in the highest tercile to have been sexually active or to have had multiple partners. Weekly attendance at religious services was protective against all three risk behaviors for both genders, with the exception of inconsistent or no condom use among males. CONCLUSIONS: Future reproductive health programs should continue to target adolescents in venues other than schools and churches, and should also address the varying needs of females and males.

The problems of eligibility and endogenous confounders when assessing the mortality impact of a nationwide disease-prevention programme: the case of insecticide-treated nets in Togo.

Evaluation of the mortality impact of nationwide disease-prevention efforts is complicated by potential endogeneity: programme recipients may have unobserved characteristics that simultaneously make them both more likely to become recipients and more likely to survive as a result of other health practices. This population-based study assesses the mortality impact of a nationwide programme that distributed insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) to mothers of children aged 9-59 months in Togo. By comparing mortality rates before and after the programme according to households' eligibility status, we demonstrate that a one-time programme that restricts eligibility to households with a surviving child excludes some households with a high risk of child mortality. We then apply simultaneous estimation models to untangle the mortality impact of ITNs from the effects of unobserved confounders and show that among eligible households, living in a household with ITNs significantly reduces mortality for children aged 20-59 months, even after controlling for endogeneity.

Exploring the associations between intimate partner violence and women's mental health: evidence from a population-based study in Paraguay.

Using a nationally representative sample from the 2008 Paraguayan National Survey of Demography and Sexual and Reproductive Health, we examine the association between emotional, physical, and sexual intimate partner violence (IPV) and mental health among women aged 15-44 years who have ever been married or in a consensual union. The results from multivariate logistic regression models demonstrate that controlling for women's socioeconomic and marital status and history of childhood abuse and their male partners' unemployment and alcohol consumption, IPV is independently associated with an increased risk for common mental disorders (CMD) and suicidal ideation measured by the Self Reporting Questionnaire (SRQ-20). IPV variables substantially improve the explanatory power of the models, particularly for suicidal ideation. Emotional abuse, regardless of when it occurred, is associated with the greatest increased risk for CMD whereas recent physical abuse is associated with the greatest increased risk for suicidal ideation. These findings suggest that efforts to identify women with mental health problems, particularly suicidal ideation, should include screening for the types and history of IPV victimization.

Contraception matters: two approaches to analyzing evidence of the abortion decline in Georgia.

CONTEXT: The abortion rate in the republic of Georgia is the highest documented in the world. Analyses using reliable data are needed to inform programs for preventing unintended pregnancy and abortion. METHODS: Data from two large national household surveys conducted in 1999 and 2005 were used to assess the relationship between contraceptive use and abortion. Two analytic approaches were used. First, abortion rates were estimated for three subgroups: users of modern contraceptives, users of traditional contraceptives and nonusers of contraceptives. A decomposition method was then used to estimate the proportions of change in abortion rates that were due to changes in contraceptive use and to changes in use- and nonuse-specific abortion rates. Second, a methodology developed by Westoff was used to examine abortion rates among contraceptive users and among nonusers with differing risks of unintended pregnancy. RESULTS: According to data from the 60 months before each survey, contraceptive prevalence among married women increased by 23% (from 39% to 48%) and the marital abortion rate declined by 15% (from 203 to 172 abortions per 1,000 woman-years) between 1999 and 2005. Both approaches showed that nonuse of any method was the principal determinant of the high unintended pregnancy rate and that the increase in use of modern contraceptives was a significant contributor to the recent drop in abortion (explaining 54% of the decline, according to the decomposition analysis). CONCLUSIONS: Efforts to increase availability and use of modern family planning methods in Georgia should lead to a direct and measurable decline in the abortion rate.

Perinatal risk for common mental disorders and suicidal ideation among women in Paraguay.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the association between mental health problems among pregnant women and those in the postpartum period using a nationally representative sample of 6538 women aged 15-49 years from the National Survey of Demography and Sexual and Reproductive Health in Paraguay. METHODS: The predicted probabilities (PP) of common mental disorders (CMD) and suicidal ideation were assessed using the Self-Reporting Questionnaire (SRQ-20) and logistic regression models. RESULTS: No evidence was found of an increased risk for mental health problems associated with being pregnant or in the postpartum period alone. The risk for CMD during pregnancy and the postpartum period and for suicidal ideation during pregnancy was significantly greater when the pregnancy was unintended. In addition, unintentionally pregnant women who had neither been in a union nor had a child were at a significantly higher risk for CMD and suicidal ideation compared with non-pregnant and non-postpartum women (PP: 0.54 versus 0.21 for CMD risk and 0.15 versus 0.02 for suicidal ideation). However, there were no significant differences by marital status among postpartum women. CONCLUSION: The significant effects of pregnancy intention and marital status highlight the importance of psychosocial, rather than physiological, contexts in which women experience pregnancy and childbirth.

Fertility decline in Paraguay.

Recent reproductive health surveys show that the fertility rate in Paraguay decreased precipitously from 4.3 lifetime births per woman in 1995-98 to 2.9 births in 2001-04. In this study, we establish data consistency between the 1998 and 2004 surveys by comparing a series of cohort-specific period rates and use the Bongaarts framework of proximate determinants of fertility to demonstrate that an increase in the contraceptive prevalence rate (CPR) between 1998 and 2004 fully accounts for the fertility decline. Decomposition of rates shows that changes in group-specific CPRs explain a greater proportion of the change in the overall CPR than do changes in population composition by educational attainment, urban residence, region, and language spoken at home. Finally, we show that younger cohorts of women in 2004 reported ideal completed fertility desires of less than 2.9 births, suggesting that the fertility rate is likely to continue to decrease.