Analysis of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in a university classroom based on real human close contact behaviors.

Due to high-population density, frequent close contact, possible poor ventilation, university classrooms are vulnerable for transmission of respiratory infectious diseases. Close contact and long-range airborne are possibly main routes for SARS-CoV-2 transmission. In this study, taking a university classroom in Beijing for example, close contact behaviors of students were collected through a depth-detection device, which could detect depth to each pixel of the image, based on semi-supervised learning. Finally, >23 h of video data were obtained. Using Computational Fluid Dynamics, the relationship between viral exposure and close contact behaviors (e.g. interpersonal distance, relative facial orientations, and relative positions) was established. A multi-route transmission model (short-range airborne, mucous deposition, and long-range airborne) of infectious diseases considering real close contact behaviors was developed. In the case of Omicron, the risk of infection in university classrooms and the efficacy of different interventions were assessed based on dose-response model. The average interpersonal distance in university classrooms is 0.9 m (95 % CI, 0.5 m-1.4 m), with the highest proportion of face-to-back contact at 87.0 %. The risk of infection of susceptible students per 45-min lesson was 1 %. The relative contributions of short-range airborne and long-range airborne transmission were 40.5 % and 59.5 %, respectively, and the mucous deposition was basically negligible. When all students are wearing N95 respirators, the infection risk could be reduced by 96 %, the relative contribution of long-range airborne transmission increases to 95.6 %. When the fresh air per capita in the classroom is 24 m3/h/person, the virus exposure could be decreased by 81.1 % compared to the real situation with 1.02 m3/h/person. In a classroom with an occupancy rate of 50 %, after optimized arrangement of student distribution, the infection risk could be decreased by 62 %.

Student close contact behavior and COVID-19 transmission in China's classrooms.

Classrooms are high-risk indoor environments, so analysis of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission in classrooms is important for determining optimal interventions. Due to the absence of human behavior data, it is challenging to accurately determine virus exposure in classrooms. A wearable device for close contact behavior detection was developed, and we recorded >250,000 data points of close contact behaviors of students from grades 1 to 12. Combined with a survey on students' behaviors, we analyzed virus transmission in classrooms. Close contact rates for students were 37 ± 11% during classes and 48 ± 13% during breaks. Students in lower grades had higher close contact rates and virus transmission potential. The long-range airborne transmission route is dominant, accounting for 90 ± 3.6% and 75 ± 7.7% with and without mask wearing, respectively. During breaks, the short-range airborne route became more important, contributing 48 ± 3.1% in grades 1 to 9 (without wearing masks). Ventilation alone cannot always meet the demands of COVID-19 control; 30 m3/h/person is suggested as the threshold outdoor air ventilation rate in a classroom. This study provides scientific support for COVID-19 prevention and control in classrooms, and our proposed human behavior detection and analysis methods offer a powerful tool to understand virus transmission characteristics and can be employed in various indoor environments.

Local travel behaviour under continuing COVID-19 waves- A proxy for pandemic fatigue?

COVID-19 continues to threaten the world. Relaxing local travel behaviours on preventing the spread of COVID-19, may increase the infection risk in subsequent waves of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. In this study, we analysed changes in the travel behaviour of different population groups (adult, child, student, elderly) during four pandemic waves in Hong Kong before January 2021, by 4-billion second-by-second smartcard records of subway. A significant continuous relaxation in human travel behaviour was observed during the four waves of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Residents sharply reduced their local travel by 51.9%, 50.1%, 27.6%, and 20.5% from the first to fourth pandemic waves, respectively. The population flow in residential areas, workplaces, schools, shopping areas, amusement areas and border areas, decreased on average by 30.3%, 33.5%, 41.9%, 58.1%, 85.4% and 99.6%, respectively, during the pandemic weeks. We also found that many other cities around the world experienced a similar relaxation trend in local travel behaviour, by comparing traffic congestion data during the pandemic with data from the same period in 2019. The quantitative pandemic fatigue in local travel behaviour could help governments partially predicting personal protective behaviours, and thus to suggest more accurate interventions during subsequent waves, especially for highly infectious virus variants such as Omicron.

Close contact behavior-based COVID-19 transmission and interventions in a subway system.

During COVID-19 pandemic, analysis on virus exposure and intervention efficiency in public transports based on real passenger's close contact behaviors is critical to curb infectious disease transmission. A monitoring device was developed to gather a total of 145,821 close contact data in subways based on semi-supervision learning. A virus transmission model considering both short- and long-range inhalation and deposition was established to calculate the virus exposure. During rush-hour, short-range inhalation exposure is 3.2 times higher than deposition exposure and 7.5 times higher than long-range inhalation exposure of all passengers in the subway. The close contact rate was 56.1 % and the average interpersonal distance was 0.8 m. Face-to-back was the main pattern during close contact. Comparing with random distribution, if all passengers stand facing in the same direction, personal virus exposure through inhalation (deposition) can be reduced by 74.1 % (98.5 %). If the talk rate was decreased from 20 % to 5 %, the inhalation (deposition) exposure can be reduced by 69.3 % (73.8 %). In addition, we found that virus exposure could be reduced by 82.0 % if all passengers wear surgical masks. This study provides scientific support for COVID-19 prevention and control in subways based on real human close contact behaviors.

Weakening personal protective behavior by Chinese university students after COVID-19 vaccination.

Personal protective behaviors and their dynamic change are known to play a major role in the community spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the causal pathogen of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. In this study, a total of 3229 students in Chinese universities completed an online survey about their knowledge on transmission and personal protective behavior before and after COVID-19 vaccination. Of the respondents, 87.6% had been vaccinated. Most students believed that the large droplet (97.0%) and short-range airborne (89.3%) routes were the two most likely SARS-CoV-2 transmission routes, whereas only 24.1% considered long-range airborne transmission to be possible. Students who would be expected to possess better knowledge about virus transmission (e.g., students of medicine) reported better personal protective behaviors. Female students reported relatively better personal hygiene practices than male students, so did the confident students than their diffident peers. Students washed their hands on average of 5.76 times per day during the pandemic. Students at universities in southern regions washed their hands more frequently but paid less attention to indoor ventilation than did their northern counterparts. Interestingly, students who are fear of being infected had the bad personal hygiene. University students wore 22% less masks in public indoor environments after vaccination. Chinese university students weakened their personal protective behavior after vaccination and it may increase the potential risk of infection in the new waves of variant virus (e.g. delta).

Analysis of efficacy of intervention strategies for COVID-19 transmission: A case study of Hong Kong.

By the end of February 2021, COVID-19 had spread to over 230 countries, with more than 100 million confirmed cases and 2.5 million deaths. To control infection spread with the least disruption to economic and societal activities, it is crucial to implement the various interventions effectively. In this study, we developed an agent-based SEIR model, using real demographic and geographic data from Hong Kong, to analyse the efficiency of various intervention strategies in preventing infection by the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Close contact route including short-range airborne is considered as the main transmission routes for COVID-19 spread. Contact tracing is not that useful if all other interventions have been fully deployed. The number of infected individuals could be halved if people reduced their close contact rate by 25%. For reducing transmission, students should be prioritized for vaccination rather than retired older people and preschool aged children. Home isolation, and taking the nucleic acid test (NAT) as soon as possible after symptom onset, are much more effective interventions than wearing masks in public places. Temperature screening in public places only disrupted the infection spread by a small amount when other interventions have been fully implemented. Our results may be useful for other highly populated cities, when choosing their intervention strategies to prevent outbreaks of COVID-19 and similar diseases.

Evidence for lack of transmission by close contact and surface touch in a restaurant outbreak of COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is primarily a respiratory disease that has become a global pandemic. Close contact plays an important role in infection spread, while fomite may also be a possible transmission route. Research during the COVID-19 pandemic has identified long-range airborne transmission as one of the important transmission routes although lack solid evidence. METHODS: We examined video data related to a restaurant associated COVID-19 outbreak in Guangzhou. We observed more than 40,000 surface touches and 13,000 episodes of close contacts in the restaurant during the entire lunch duration. These data allowed us to analyse infection risk via both the fomite and close contact routes. RESULTS: There is no significant correlation between the infection risk via both fomite and close contact routes among those who were not family members of the index case. We can thus rule out virus transmission via fomite contact and interpersonal close contact routes in the Guangzhou restaurant outbreak. The absence of a fomite route agrees with the COVID-19 literature. CONCLUSIONS: These results provide indirect evidence for the long-range airborne route dominating SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the restaurant. We note that the restaurant was poorly ventilated, allowing for increasing airborne SARS-CoV-2 concentration.

Changes in local travel behaviour before and during the COVID-19 pandemic in Hong Kong.

COVID-19 threatens the world. Social distancing is a significant factor in determining the spread of this disease, and social distancing is strongly affected by the local travel behaviour of people in large cities. In this study, we analysed the changes in the local travel behaviour of various population groups in Hong Kong, between 1 January and 31 March 2020, by using second-by-second smartcard data obtained from the Mass Transit Railway Corporation (MTRC) system. Due to the pandemic, local travel volume decreased by 43%, 49% and 59% during weekdays, Saturdays and Sundays, respectively. The local travel volumes of adults, children, students and senior citizens decreased by 42%, 86%, 73% and 48%, respectively. The local travel behaviour changes for adults and seniors between non-pandemic and pandemic times were greater than those between weekdays and weekends. The opposite was true for children and students. During the pandemic, the daily commute flow decreased by 42%. Local trips to shopping areas, amusement areas and borders decreased by 42%, 81% and 99%, respectively. The effective reproduction number (R t ) of COVID-19 had the strongest association with daily population use of the MTR 7-8 days earlier.

COVID-19 Vaccination Did Not Change the Personal Protective Behaviors of Healthcare Workers in China.

Personal protective behaviors of healthcare workers (HCWs) and dynamic changes in them are known to play a major role in the hospital transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). In this study, 1,499 HCWs in Chinese hospitals completed an online survey about their knowledge on SARS-CoV-2 transmission and their personal protective behaviors before and after coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination. Of all the respondents, 89% were vaccinated at the time of the survey and 96% believed that the vaccine was effective or highly effective. Further, 88% of the vaccinated HCWs expressed that they would get revaccinated if the vaccination failed. Compared with HCWs with a lower education level, those with a higher education level had less fear of being infected with SARS-CoV-2 and reported a lower negative impact of the pandemic on how they treated patients. Physicians and nurses were willing to believe that short-range airborne and long-range fomite are possible transmission routes. HCWs with a higher education level had a better knowledge of COVID-19 but worse personal protective behaviors. The fact that HCWs with a longer work experience had worse personal protective behaviors showed that HCWs gradually relax their personal protective behaviors over time. Moreover, vaccination reduced the negative effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on how the HCWs treated patients. Importantly, the survey revealed that after vaccination, HCWs in China did not relax their personal protective behaviors, and it may bring a low potential risk for following waves of variant virus (e.g., delta).

Impact of intervention methods on COVID-19 transmission in Shenzhen.

By March 31, 2020, COVID-19 had spread to more than 200 countries. Over 750,000 confirmed cases were reported, leading to more than 36,000 deaths. In this study, we analysed the efficiency of various intervention strategies to prevent infection by the virus, SARS-CoV-2, using an agent-based SEIIR model, in the fully urbanised city of Shenzhen, Guangdong Province, China. Shortening the duration from symptom onset to hospital admission, quarantining recent arrivals from Hubei Province, and letting symptomatic individuals stay at home were found to be the three most important interventions to reduce the risk of infection in Shenzhen. The ideal time window for a mandatory quarantine of arrivals from Hubei Province was between 10 January and January 17, 2020, while the ideal time window for local intervention strategies was between 15 and 22 January. The risk of infection could have been reduced by 50% if all symptomatic individuals had immediately gone to hospital for isolation, and by 35% if a 14-day quarantine for arrivals from Hubei Province had been introduced one week earlier. Intervention strategies implemented in Shenzhen were effective, and the spread of infection would be controlled even if the initial basic reproduction number had doubled. Our results may be useful for other cities when choosing their intervention strategies to prevent outbreaks of COVID-19.

Infection Spread and High-Resolution Detection of Close Contact Behaviors.

Knowledge of human behaviors is important for improving indoor-environment design, building-energy efficiency, and productivity, and for studies of infection spread. However, such data are lacking. In this study, we designed a device for detecting and recording, second by second, the 3D indoor positioning and head and body motions of each graduate student in an office. From more than 400 person hours of data. Students spent 92.2%, 4.1%, 2.9%, and 0.8% of their time in their own office cubicles, other office cubicles, aisles, and areas near public facilities, respectively. They spent 9.7% of time in close contact, and each student averagely had 4.0 close contacts/h. Students spent long time on close contact in the office which may lead to high infection risk. The average interpersonal distance during close contact was 0.81 m. When sitting, students preferred small relative face orientation angle. Pairs of standing students preferred a face-to-face orientation during close contact which means this pattern had a lower infection risk via close contact. Probability of close contact decreased exponentially with the increasing distance between two students' cubicles. Data on human behaviour during close contact is helpful for infection risk analysis and infection control and prevention.

Quantitative association analysis between PM2.5 concentration and factors on industry, energy, agriculture, and transportation.

Rapid urbanization is causing serious PM2.5 (particulate matter ≤2.5 µm) pollution in China. However, the impacts of human activities (including industrial production, energy production, agriculture, and transportation) on PM2.5 concentrations have not been thoroughly studied. In this study, we obtained a regression formula for PM2.5 concentration based on more than 1 million PM2.5 recorded values and data from meteorology, industrial production, energy production, agriculture, and transportation for 31 provinces of mainland China between January 2013 and May 2017. We used stepwise regression to process 49 factors that influence PM2.5 concentration, and obtained the 10 primary influencing factors. Data of PM2.5 concentration and 10 factors from June to December, 2017 was used to verify the robustness of the model. Excluding meteorological factors, production of natural gas, industrial boilers, and ore production have the highest association with PM2.5 concentration, while nuclear power generation is the most positive factor in decreasing PM2.5 concentration. Tianjin, Beijing, and Hebei provinces are the most vulnerable to high PM2.5 concentrations caused by industrial production, energy production, agriculture, and transportation (IEAT).

A human behavior integrated hierarchical model of airborne disease transmission in a large city.

Epidemics of infectious diseases such as SARS, H1N1, and MERS threaten public health, particularly in large cities such as Hong Kong. We constructed a human behavior integrated hierarchical (HiHi) model based on the SIR (Susceptible, Infectious, and Recovered) model, the Wells-Riley equation, and population movement considering both spatial and temporal dimensions. The model considers more than 7 million people, 3 million indoor environments, and 2566 public transport routes in Hong Kong. Smallpox, which could be spread through airborne routes, is studied as an example. The simulation is based on people's daily commutes and indoor human behaviors, which were summarized by mathematical patterns. We found that 59.6%, 18.1%, and 13.4% of patients become infected in their homes, offices, and schools, respectively. If both work stoppage and school closure measures are taken when the number of infected people is greater than 1000, an infectious disease will be effectively controlled after 2 months. The peak number of infected people will be reduced by 25% compared to taking no action, and the time of peak infections will be delayed by about 40 days if 90% of the infected people go to hospital during the infectious period. When ventilation rates in indoor environments increase to five times their default settings, smallpox will be naturally controlled. Residents of Kowloon and the north part of Hong Kong Island have a high risk of infection from airborne infectious diseases. Our HiHi model reduces the calculation time for infection rates to an acceptable level while preserving accuracy.

Information dissemination analysis of different media towards the application for disaster pre-warning.

Knowing the information dissemination mechanisms of different media and having an efficient information dissemination plan for disaster pre-warning plays a very important role in reducing losses and ensuring the safety of human beings. In this paper we established models of information dissemination for six typical information media, including short message service (SMS), microblogs, news portals, cell phones, television, and oral communication. Then, the information dissemination capability of each medium concerning individuals of different ages, genders, and residential areas was simulated, and the dissemination characteristics were studied. Finally, radar graphs were used to illustrate comprehensive assessments of the six media; these graphs show directly the information dissemination characteristics of all media. The models and the results are essential for improving the efficiency of information dissemination for the purpose of disaster pre-warning and for formulating emergency plans which help to reduce the possibility of injuries, deaths and other losses in a disaster.