Estimation of the probability risks of African swine fever outbreaks using the maximum entropy method in North Sumatra Province, Indonesia.

Background and Aim: African swine fever (ASF) is an infectious disease and a major viral pig disease that threatens pork production in several locations globally. The mortality rate of ASF in domestic pigs is very high, causing a decrease in pig populations and significant economic losses for farmers. Environmental or ecological risk factors are the most important associated with the spread of the ASF virus. Environmental (or ecological) niche models are commonly used to estimate the probability of an event using the maximum entropy (Maxent) method. This study aimed to estimate the probability risk of future ASF outbreaks in North Sumatra, Indonesia. Materials and Methods: Secondary data from the National Animal Health System Database (iSIKHNAS), including data on the ASF outbreaks of 2019-2020 in North Sumatra, Indonesia, were used in this study. The first analysis performed involved the identification of environmental risk factors using multiple regression analysis. The second analysis performed was the estimation of probability risk for future ASF outbreaks in North Sumatra, Indonesia, using the Maxent method. Data processing was performed using Microsoft Excel, ArcGIS version 10.5 software (ESRI, California, United States), Maxent version 3.4.4 software, and Rstudio (http://www.r-project.org/). Results: The Maxent method was found to be highly accurate with a statistically significant area under the curve value of 0.860. The greatest contributing environmental factor identified by the model was the harbor, which contributed 57%. The range of high probability risk of future ASF outbreaks was found to be 0.723-0.84. Conclusion: The estimation of the highest probability risk of future ASF outbreaks in North Sumatra, Indonesia, was 0.723-0.84. The most contributing environmental factor identified using the Maxent method was harbors, at 57%. This methodology can be used to carry out subsequent ASF analyses and contribute to developing prevention and control strategies in this area.

Contact rate and risk factors of classical swine fever disease in commercial and smallholder pig farms, Karanganyar, Central Java, Indonesia.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Classical swine fever (CSF) is one of the primary diseases in animals in Indonesia, particularly areas that supply pig meat to the country, such as Karanganyar district, Central Java. The government has tried to prevent and control the disease by vaccination, but it has not yet given effective results. Therefore, another attempt to prevent the recurrence of CSF cases is to apply biosecurity in pig farms by looking for risk factors associated with on-farm and off-farm contact. This study aims to determine the contact rate and investigate the risk factors associated with on-farm and off-farm contact in commercial and smallholder pig farms in Karanganyar, Central Java, Indonesia, in the context of controlling CSF disease. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This study used a cross-sectional study design in which the pig farm was designed as the observed epidemiological unit. The contact structure data were conducted by sampling using a two-stage random method. We selected Karanganyar district because it is the center of a pig farm in the Central Java Province and has many CSF cases in several years before. The study was conducted for more or less 1 month from August to September 2019. The contact data were collected from 37 smallholder farms and 27 commercial farms within interviews. Risk factors for contact with pigs were analyzed using logistic regression using theStatistix Program version 8.0.(www.statistix.com). RESULTS: In comparison to smallholder farms, commercial farms had 2.38 and 3.32 times higher contact rate in outside farms and inside farms, respectively. Two factors increased the risk for on-farm contacts including commercials type farm (p=0.0012; odds ratio [OR]=8.32) with contact rate of 1.24 times/day and the time interval of CSF vaccination for 1-3 months (p=0.0013; OR=8.43) with contact rate of 0.98 times/day, and three factors increased the risk for off-farm contacts including the commercial farm type (p=0.012; OR=4.88) with 1.50 contact/day, the time interval of CSF vaccination for 1-3 months (p=0.036; OR=3.83) with 1.30 contact/day, and farmers with experience in pig husbandry <5 years (p=0.075; OR=3.56) with 1.13 contact/day. CONCLUSION: This study shows that commercial farms and short CSF vaccination intervals increased the risk of either off-farm or on-farm contacts. The contact structure of pig farms in Karanganyar district is similar to that in other areas in Indonesia. Reducing the risk of contacts either outside or inside the pig farms is essential to prevent disease transmission. Enhancing communication and education to pig farmers and surveillance is also necessary to prevent such diseases in pigs.

Reproductive performance of beef cattle with ovarian hypofunction and repeat breeding in Jepara Regency, Central Java, Indonesia.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Reproductive disorders keep the beef cattle population in Jepara Regency, Central Java, Indonesia, from increasing. Ovarian hypofunction and repeat breeding are the most common reproductive disorders, leading to large economic losses for traditional breeders. However, the impact of poor reproductive performance among traditional breeders is not well-known. This study aimed to investigate the reproductive performance of beef cattle with ovarian hypofunction and repeat breeding in Jepara Regency. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We determined cattle's reproductive status by rectal examination and anamnesis, assessing reproductive performance in 28 cows with repeat breeding and 27 cows with ovarian hypofunction. The following parameters were measured: Postpartum estrous (PPE), days open (DO), service per conception (S/C), and calving interval (CI). The data came from livestock records from animal recording cards, iSIKHNAS, and estimated births from the insemination date that produced a pregnancy. RESULTS: In beef cattle diagnosed with ovarian hypofunction, S/C, PPE, DO, and CI were 1.28, 257 days, 265 days, and 18 months, respectively. The length of CI caused by long PPE may be due to improper nutrition and calf weaning delays. In beef cattle with repeat breeding, S/C, PPE, DO, and CI were 4.15, 106 days, 210 days, and 16 months, respectively. The length of CI was caused by long DO due to pregnancy failure at the first estrus. CONCLUSION: Hypofunction and repeat breeding reduce the reproductive performance of beef cattle in the Jepara Regency. The cows' health conditions pre- and postpartum can be optimized by providing high-quality feed to enhance reproductive performance.

Seroprevalence and risk factors of brucellosis and the brucellosis model at the individual level of dairy cattle in the West Bandung District, Indonesia.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Brucellosis is a zoonotic bacterial infectious disease. West Bandung is a center for dairy farming in West Java Province District and endemic for brucellosis. The aim of the study was to determine the prevalence, the associated risk factors, and the brucellosis model at the individual level of dairy cattle in the West Bandung District. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The research was conducted through a cross-sectional study. The samples were collected from the serum blood of dairy cattle. Data obtained from the questionnaire were used to investigate risk factors. Multistage random sampling was applied as the sampling technique; therefore, a sample size of 540 cows was selected. The number of farms and cattle on each farm was calculated using a variant effect design of the farm as well as 108 farms was selected with five cattle samples per farm. The results in regard of the research sample acquisition in the West Bandung District included 588 dairy cows from 116 farms, exceeds the number of samples calculated (540 dairy cows and 108 farms). The rose Bengal test (RBT) and the complement fixation test (CFT) were performed for brucellosis testing. Data associated with brucellosis cases at the individual level of the dairy cattle were analyzed using descriptive statistics univariate, bivariate with Chi-square, and odds ratio (OR). Moreover, multivariate logistic regression was used for the analysis during modeling. RESULTS: The results showed that the prevalence of brucellosis at the individual level in the West Bandung District was 5.10%. Risk factors associated with brucellosis in cattle included the history of abortion (p=0.000; OR=9.9), the history of placental retention (p=0.000; OR=6.6), the history of endometritis (p=0.000; OR=5.5), the history of stillbirth (p=0.043; OR=3.0), the history of pregnancy abortion age at 7-8 months (p=0.000; OR=15.2), and the history of pregnancy abortion at the age of 4-6 months (p=0.007; OR=3.8). The model of brucellosis in dairy cows was the following: = -3.2843+3.41033 the history of pregnancy abortion at the age of 7-8 months +2.54503 the history of pregnancy abortion at the age of 4-6 months +1.86185 age of cattle >2 years - 1.0469 Calving interval 12 months. The model showed the factors that were associated with brucellosis at the individual level of dairy cattle included the history of pregnancy abortion at the age of 7-8 months (ß=+3.41033; OR=30.3), the history of pregnancy abortion at the age of 4-6 months (ß=+2.54503; OR=12.7); age of cattle >2 years (ß=+1.86185; OR=1.2), and Calving interval ≤12 months (ß=-1.04691; OR=0.34). CONCLUSION: The results of this research showed that the prevalence of brucellosis at the individual level of dairy cattle in the West Bandung district was 5.10%. The risk factors could contribute to the increase of the brucellosis cases, that is, the history of pregnancy abortion at the age of 7-8, the history of pregnancy abortion at the age of 4-6 months, and the age of cattle >2 years. The risk factors can be decreased in the brucellosis cases, that is, calving intervals ≤12 months.

Risk factors of a viral nervous necrosis disease in grouper (Epinephelus spp.) cultured in Bintan district, Indonesia.

AIM: The aim of the study was to determine the prevalence and risk factors of viral nervous necrosis (VNN) disease in tiger grouper cultured in the floating net cage in Bintan district, Indonesia. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Sampling used multiple stages with ponds as interest units. The selection conducted by systematic random sampling from the entire net cage in Bintan district. The fish samples were selected based on the appearance of clinical signs of infected fish. The risk factors investigated in this study included net cage, technical, and sample fish information, culture, water quality, and feed management. A total of 195 fishes pooled to the 39 net cages and tested using the nested polymerase chain reaction technique to determine the VNN status. The brain and eye processed for histopathology. RESULTS: The prevalence rate of VNN on the net cage was 38% (15/39). The risk factors affecting VNN using bivariate analysis was cleaning the net (χ 2=9.80; p=0.002), replacement of net cage (χ 2=5.20; p=0.0226), and floating net cage technicians knowledge (χ 2=4.13; p=0.042). The variables of positive risk factors affecting VNN by multivariate analysis were the juvenile source and the level of mid-weather changes (technician experience and dissolved oxygen [DO]). Seven variables associated to the VNN outbreak have detected. The positive multiplier factors were the source of juveniles, mid weather changes, technician experience, and the DO, while the negative factors were salinity, mixed feed, and the low weather changes. Histopathologically, the grouper fish showed the brain, eye, and muscle vacuolization and kidney necrosis. CONCLUSION: It proves that the Bintan waters contaminated by VNN had a prevalence rate of 38% from the total sample based on bivariate method, net cleaning, net replacement, and knowledge on the VNN outbreak. Natural infection of VNN in grouper leads to vacuolization of the brain, the eye, and muscles nearby the eye as well the kidney necrosis.

Potential risk of viral transmission from flying foxes to domestic animals and humans on the southern coast of West Java, Indonesia.

Flying foxes have been considered to be involved in the transmission of serious infectious diseases to humans. Using questionnaires, we aimed to determine the direct and/or indirect contacts of flying foxes in an Indonesian nature conservation area with domestic animals and humans living in the surrounding area. We surveyed 150 residents of 10 villages in West Java. Villages were classified into 3 groups: inside and/or within 1 km from the outer border of the conservation area and 1-5 km or 5-10 km away from the reserve's outer border. Data were collected by direct interview using a structured questionnaire consisting of the respondent characteristics (age, sex and occupation); histories of contacts between flying foxes and humans, dogs and other domestic animals; and knowledge about infectious diseases, mainly rabies, in flying foxes. We found that flying foxes from the nature conservation area often enter residential areas at night to look for food, especially during the fruit season. In these residential areas, flying foxes had direct contacts with humans and a few contacts with domestic animals, especially dogs. People who encounter flying foxes seldom used personal protective equipment, such as leather gloves, goggles and caps. The residents living around the conservation area mostly had poor knowledge about flying foxes and disease transmission. This situation shows that the population in this region is at a quite high risk for contracting infectious diseases from flying foxes.

Phylogeography of the current rabies viruses in Indonesia.

Rabies is a major fatal zoonotic disease in Indonesia. This study was conducted to determine the recent dynamics of rabies virus (RABV) in various areas and animal species throughout Indonesia. A total of 27 brain samples collected from rabid animals of various species in Bali, Sumatra, Kalimantan, Sulawesi, Java, and Flores in 2008 to 2010 were investigated. The cDNA of the nucleoprotein gene from each sample was generated and amplified by one-step reverse transcription-PCR, after which the products were sequenced and analyzed. The symmetric substitution model of a Bayesian stochastic search variable selection extension of the discrete phylogeographic model of the social network was applied in BEAST ver. 1.7.5 software. The spatial dispersal was visualized in Cartographica using Spatial Phylogenetic Reconstruction of Evolutionary Dynamics. We demonstrated inter-island introduction and reintroduction, and dog was found to be the only source of infection of other animals. Ancestors of Indonesian RABVs originated in Java and its descendants were transmitted to Kalimantan, then further to Sumatra, Flores, and Bali. The Flores descendent was subsequently transmitted to Sulawesi and back to Kalimantan. The viruses found in various animal species were transmitted by the dog.