Similar Risk of Kidney Failure among Patients with Blinding Diseases Who Receive Ranibizumab, Aflibercept, and Bevacizumab: An Observational Health Data Sciences and Informatics Network Study.

PURPOSE: To characterize the incidence of kidney failure associated with intravitreal anti-VEGF exposure; and compare the risk of kidney failure in patients treated with ranibizumab, aflibercept, or bevacizumab. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study across 12 databases in the Observational Health Data Sciences and Informatics (OHDSI) network. SUBJECTS: Subjects aged ≥ 18 years with ≥ 3 monthly intravitreal anti-VEGF medications for a blinding disease (diabetic retinopathy, diabetic macular edema, exudative age-related macular degeneration, or retinal vein occlusion). METHODS: The standardized incidence proportions and rates of kidney failure while on treatment with anti-VEGF were calculated. For each comparison (e.g., aflibercept versus ranibizumab), patients from each group were matched 1:1 using propensity scores. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate the risk of kidney failure while on treatment. A random effects meta-analysis was performed to combine each database's hazard ratio (HR) estimate into a single network-wide estimate. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Incidence of kidney failure while on anti-VEGF treatment, and time from cohort entry to kidney failure. RESULTS: Of the 6.1 million patients with blinding diseases, 37 189 who received ranibizumab, 39 447 aflibercept, and 163 611 bevacizumab were included; the total treatment exposure time was 161 724 person-years. The average standardized incidence proportion of kidney failure was 678 per 100 000 persons (range, 0-2389), and incidence rate 742 per 100 000 person-years (range, 0-2661). The meta-analysis HR of kidney failure comparing aflibercept with ranibizumab was 1.01 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.70-1.47; P = 0.45), ranibizumab with bevacizumab 0.95 (95% CI, 0.68-1.32; P = 0.62), and aflibercept with bevacizumab 0.95 (95% CI, 0.65-1.39; P = 0.60). CONCLUSIONS: There was no substantially different relative risk of kidney failure between those who received ranibizumab, bevacizumab, or aflibercept. Practicing ophthalmologists and nephrologists should be aware of the risk of kidney failure among patients receiving intravitreal anti-VEGF medications and that there is little empirical evidence to preferentially choose among the specific intravitreal anti-VEGF agents. FINANCIAL DISCLOSURES: Proprietary or commercial disclosure may be found in the Footnotes and Disclosures at the end of this article.

Health-Analytics Data to Evidence Suite (HADES): Open-Source Software for Observational Research.

The Health-Analytics Data to Evidence Suite (HADES) is an open-source software collection developed by Observational Health Data Sciences and Informatics (OHDSI). It executes directly against healthcare data such as electronic health records and administrative claims, that have been converted to the Observational Medical Outcomes Partnership (OMOP) Common Data Model. Using advanced analytics, HADES performs characterization, population-level causal effect estimation, and patient-level prediction, potentially across a federated data network, allowing patient-level data to remain locally while only aggregated statistics are shared. Designed to run across a wide array of technical environments, including different operating systems and database platforms, HADES uses continuous integration with a large set of unit tests to maintain reliability. HADES implements OHDSI best practices, and is used in almost all published OHDSI studies, including some that have directly informed regulatory decisions.

The Epidemiology of Palmoplantar Pustulosis: An Analysis of Multiple Health Insurance Claims and Electronic Health Records Databases.

BACKGROUND: Palmoplantar pustulosis (PPP) is a chronic inflammatory condition characterized by sterile pustules on the palms and soles. This study evaluated the epidemiology of PPP using claims and electronic health record (EHR) databases. METHODS: Patients coded for PPP in the United States (US) and Japan from 2016 to 2020 were identified. Several PPP definitions were evaluated; the specific definition (≥ 2 visits coded for PPP, the second 31-730 days after diagnosis) was chosen for characterizing PPP epidemiology. Baseline characteristics and pre- and post-diagnosis treatments were summarized. Prevalence and incidence rates were analyzed by calendar year, sex, age, and database. RESULTS: Prevalence and incidence of PPP were higher in Japan than the US. PPP prevalence increased over time. PPP occurred predominantly in adulthood and was more common among women. Features of metabolic syndromes, anxiety, and depression were more common among US PPP patients. Consistently high baseline use of anti-bacterial, anti-inflammatory/anti-rheumatic, and obstructive airway disease treatments was observed among PPP patients. Potential miscoding or misclassification of PPP limited this analysis. Prevalence estimates from databases may differ from field- and population-based approaches. CONCLUSIONS: The burden of PPP was greater in Japan than in the US. Additional studies are needed to further elucidate PPP epidemiology worldwide.

Reproducible variability: assessing investigator discordance across 9 research teams attempting to reproduce the same observational study.

OBJECTIVE: Observational studies can impact patient care but must be robust and reproducible. Nonreproducibility is primarily caused by unclear reporting of design choices and analytic procedures. This study aimed to: (1) assess how the study logic described in an observational study could be interpreted by independent researchers and (2) quantify the impact of interpretations' variability on patient characteristics. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Nine teams of highly qualified researchers reproduced a cohort from a study by Albogami et al. The teams were provided the clinical codes and access to the tools to create cohort definitions such that the only variable part was their logic choices. We executed teams' cohort definitions against the database and compared the number of subjects, patient overlap, and patient characteristics. RESULTS: On average, the teams' interpretations fully aligned with the master implementation in 4 out of 10 inclusion criteria with at least 4 deviations per team. Cohorts' size varied from one-third of the master cohort size to 10 times the cohort size (2159-63 619 subjects compared to 6196 subjects). Median agreement was 9.4% (interquartile range 15.3-16.2%). The teams' cohorts significantly differed from the master implementation by at least 2 baseline characteristics, and most of the teams differed by at least 5. CONCLUSIONS: Independent research teams attempting to reproduce the study based on its free-text description alone produce different implementations that vary in the population size and composition. Sharing analytical code supported by a common data model and open-source tools allows reproducing a study unambiguously thereby preserving initial design choices.

Using a data-driven approach for the development and evaluation of phenotype algorithms for systemic lupus erythematosus.

BACKGROUND: Systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) is a chronic autoimmune disease of unknown origin. The objective of this research was to develop phenotype algorithms for SLE suitable for use in epidemiological studies using empirical evidence from observational databases. METHODS: We used a process for empirically determining and evaluating phenotype algorithms for health conditions to be analyzed in observational research. The process started with a literature search to discover prior algorithms used for SLE. We then used a set of Observational Health Data Sciences and Informatics (OHDSI) open-source tools to refine and validate the algorithms. These included tools to discover codes for SLE that may have been missed in prior studies and to determine possible low specificity and index date misclassification in algorithms for correction. RESULTS: We developed four algorithms using our process: two algorithms for prevalent SLE and two for incident SLE. The algorithms for both incident and prevalent cases are comprised of a more specific version and a more sensitive version. Each of the algorithms corrects for possible index date misclassification. After validation, we found the highest positive predictive value estimate for the prevalent, specific algorithm (89%). The highest sensitivity estimate was found for the sensitive, prevalent algorithm (77%). CONCLUSION: We developed phenotype algorithms for SLE using a data-driven approach. The four final algorithms may be used directly in observational studies. The validation of these algorithms provides researchers an added measure of confidence that the algorithms are selecting subjects correctly and allows for the application of quantitative bias analysis.

Development and Evaluation of the Algorithm CErtaInty Tool (ACE-IT) to Assess Electronic Medical Record and Claims-based Algorithms' Fit for Purpose for Safety Outcomes.

INTRODUCTION: Electronic health record (EHR) or medical claims-based algorithms (i.e., operational definitions) can be used to define safety outcomes using real-world data. However, existing tools do not allow researchers and decision-makers to adequately appraise whether a particular algorithm is fit for purpose (FFP) to support regulatory decisions on drug safety surveillance. Our objective was to develop a tool to enable regulatory decision-makers and other stakeholders to appraise whether a given algorithm is FFP for a specific decision context. METHODS: We drafted a set of 77 generic items informed by regulatory guidance documents, existing instruments, and publications. The outcome of ischemic stroke served as an exemplar to inform the development of draft items. The items were designed to be outcome independent. We conducted a three-round online Delphi panel to develop and refine the tool and achieve consensus on items (> 70% agreement) among panel participants composed of regulators, researchers from pharmaceutical organizations, academic clinicians, methodologists, pharmacoepidemiologists, and cardiologists. We conducted a qualitative analysis of panel responses. Five pairs of reviewers independently evaluated two ischemic stroke algorithm validation studies to test its application. We developed a user guide, with explanation and elaboration for each item, guidance on essential and additional elements for user responses, and an illustrative example of a complete assessment. Furthermore, we conducted a 2-h online stakeholder panel of 16 participants from regulatory agencies, academic institutions, and industry. We solicited input on key factors for an FFP assessment, their general reaction to the Algorithm CErtaInty Tool (ACE-IT), limitations of the tool, and its potential use. RESULTS: The expert panel reviewed and made changes to the initial list of 77 items. The panel achieved consensus on 38 items, and the final version of the ACE-IT includes 34 items after removal of duplicate items. Applying the tool to two ischemic stroke algorithms demonstrated challenges in its application and identified shared concepts addressed by more than one item. The ACE-IT was viewed positively by the majority of stakeholders. They identified that the tool could serve as an educational resource as well as an information-sharing platform. The time required to complete the assessment was identified as an important limitation. We consolidated items with shared concepts and added a preliminary screen section and a summary assessment box based on their input. The final version of the ACE-IT is a 34-item tool for assessing whether algorithm validation studies on safety outcomes are FFP. It comprises the domains of internal validity (24 items), external validity (seven items), and ethical conduct and reporting of the validation study (three items). The internal validity domain includes sections on objectives, data sources, population, outcomes, design and setting, statistical methods, reference standard, accuracy, and strengths and limitations. The external validity domain includes items that assess the generalizability to a proposed target study. The domain on ethics and transparency includes items on ethical conduct and reporting of the validation study. CONCLUSION: The ACE-IT supports a structured, transparent, and flexible approach for decision-makers to appraise whether electronic health record or medical claims-based algorithms for safety outcomes are FFP for a specific decision context. Reliability and validity testing using a larger sample of participants in other therapeutic areas and further modifications to reduce the time needed to complete the assessment are needed to fully evaluate its utility for regulatory decision-making.

Comparing broad and narrow phenotype algorithms: differences in performance characteristics and immortal time incurred.

Introduction: When developing phenotype algorithms for observational research, there is usually a trade-off between definitions that are sensitive or specific. The objective of this study was to estimate the performance characteristics of phenotype algorithms designed for increasing specificity and to estimate the immortal time associated with each algorithm. Materials and methods: We examined algorithms for 11 chronic health conditions. The analyses were from data from five databases. For each health condition, we created five algorithms to examine performance (sensitivity and positive predictive value (PPV)) differences: one broad algorithm using a single code for the health condition and four narrow algorithms where a second diagnosis code was required 1-30 days, 1-90 days, 1-365 days, or 1- all days in a subject's continuous observation period after the first code. We also examined the proportion of immortal time relative to time-at-risk (TAR) for four outcomes. The TAR's were: 0-30 days after the first condition occurrence (the index date), 0-90 days post-index, 0-365 days post-index, and 0-1,095 days post-index. Performance of algorithms for chronic health conditions was estimated using PheValuator (V2.1.4) from the OHDSI toolstack. Immortal time was calculated as the time from the index date until the first of the following: 1) the outcome; 2) the end of the outcome TAR; 3) the occurrence of the second code for the chronic health condition. Results: In the first analysis, the narrow phenotype algorithms, i.e., those requiring a second condition code, produced higher estimates for PPV and lower estimates for sensitivity compared to the single code algorithm. In all conditions, increasing the time to the required second code increased the sensitivity of the algorithm. In the second analysis, the amount of immortal time increased as the window used to identify the second diagnosis code increased. The proportion of TAR that was immortal was highest in the 30 days TAR analyses compared to the 1,095 days TAR analyses. Conclusion: Attempting to increase the specificity of a health condition algorithm by adding a second code is a potentially valid approach to increase specificity, albeit at the cost of incurring immortal time.

PheValuator 2.0: Methodological improvements for the PheValuator approach to semi-automated phenotype algorithm evaluation.

PURPOSE: Phenotype algorithms are central to performing analyses using observational data. These algorithms translate the clinical idea of a health condition into an executable set of rules allowing for queries of data elements from a database. PheValuator, a software package in the Observational Health Data Sciences and Informatics (OHDSI) tool stack, provides a method to assess the performance characteristics of these algorithms, namely, sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive value. It uses machine learning to develop predictive models for determining a probabilistic gold standard of subjects for assessment of cases and non-cases of health conditions. PheValuator was developed to complement or even replace the traditional approach of algorithm validation, i.e., by expert assessment of subject records through chart review. Results in our first PheValuator paper suggest a systematic underestimation of the PPV compared to previous results using chart review. In this paper we evaluate modifications made to the method designed to improve its performance. METHODS: The major changes to PheValuator included allowing all diagnostic conditions, clinical observations, drug prescriptions, and laboratory measurements to be included as predictors within the modeling process whereas in the prior version there were significant restrictions on the included predictors. We also have allowed for the inclusion of the temporal relationships of the predictors in the model. To evaluate the performance of the new method, we compared the results from the new and original methods against results found from the literature using traditional validation of algorithms for 19 phenotypes. We performed these tests using data from five commercial databases. RESULTS: In the assessment aggregating all phenotype algorithms, the median difference between the PheValuator estimate and the gold standard estimate for PPV was reduced from -21 (IQR -34, -3) in Version 1.0 to 4 (IQR -3, 15) using Version 2.0. We found a median difference in specificity of 3 (IQR 1, 4.25) for Version 1.0 and 3 (IQR 1, 4) for Version 2.0. The median difference between the two versions of PheValuator and the gold standard for estimates of sensitivity was reduced from -39 (-51, -20) to -16 (-34, -6). CONCLUSION: PheValuator 2.0 produces estimates for the performance characteristics for phenotype algorithms that are significantly closer to estimates from traditional validation through chart review compared to version 1.0. With this tool in researcher's toolkits, methods, such as quantitative bias analysis, may now be used to improve the reliability and reproducibility of research studies using observational data.

Performance characteristics of code-based algorithms to identify urinary tract infections in large United States administrative claims databases.

BACKGROUND: In real-world evidence research, reliability of coding in healthcare databases dictates the accuracy of code-based algorithms in identifying conditions such as urinary tract infection (UTI). This study evaluates the performance characteristics of code-based algorithms to identify UTI. METHODS: Retrospective observational study of adults contained within three large U.S. administrative claims databases on or after January 1, 2010. A targeted literature review was performed to inform the development of 10 code-based algorithms to identify UTIs consisting of combinations of diagnosis codes, antibiotic exposure for the treatment of UTIs, and/or ordering of a urinalysis or urine culture. For each database, a probabilistic gold standard was developed using PheValuator. The performance characteristics of each code-based algorithm were assessed compared with the probabilistic gold standard. RESULTS: A total of 2 950 641, 1 831 405, and 2 294 929 patients meeting study criteria were identified in each database. Overall, the code-based algorithm requiring a primary UTI diagnosis code achieved the highest positive predictive values (PPV; >93.8%) but the lowest sensitivities (<12.9%). Algorithms requiring three UTI diagnosis codes achieved similar PPV (>0.899%) and improved sensitivity (<41.6%). Algorithms requiring a single UTI diagnosis code in any position achieved the highest sensitivities (>72.1%) alongside a slight reduction in PPVs (<78.3%). All-time prevalence estimates of UTI ranged from 21.6% to 48.6%. CONCLUSIONS: Based on these findings, we recommend use of algorithms requiring a single UTI diagnosis code, which achieved high sensitivity and PPV. In studies where PPV is critical, we recommend code-based algorithms requiring three UTI diagnosis codes rather than a single primary UTI diagnosis code.

Development and performance characteristics of novel code-based algorithms to identify invasive Escherichia coli disease.

PURPOSE: Evaluation of novel code-based algorithms to identify invasive Escherichia coli disease (IED) among patients in healthcare databases. METHODS: Inpatient visits with microbiological evidence of invasive bacterial disease were extracted from the Optum© electronic health record database between January 1, 2016 and June 30, 2020. Six algorithms, derived from diagnosis and drug exposure codes associated to infectious diseases and Escherichia coli, were developed to identify IED. The performance characteristics of algorithms were assessed using a reference standard derived from microbiology data. RESULTS: Among 97 194 eligible records, 25 310 (26.0%) were classified as IED. Algorithm 1 (diagnosis code for infectious invasive disease due to E. coli) had the highest positive predictive value (PPV; 96.0%) and lowest sensitivity (60.4%). Algorithm 2, which additionally included patients with diagnosis codes for infectious invasive disease due to an unspecified organism, had the highest sensitivity (95.5%) and lowest PPV (27.8%). Algorithm 4, which required patients with a diagnosis code for infectious invasive disease due to unspecified organism to have no diagnosis code for non-E. coli infections, achieved the most balanced performance characteristics (PPV, 93.6%; sensitivity, 78.1%; F1 score, 85.1%). Finally, adding exposure to antibiotics in the treatment of E. coli had limited impact on performance algorithms 5 and 6. CONCLUSION: Algorithm 4, which achieved the most balanced performance characteristics, offers a useful tool to identify patients with IED and assess the burden of IED in healthcare databases.

Development and external validation of prediction models for adverse health outcomes in rheumatoid arthritis: A multinational real-world cohort analysis.

BACKGROUND: Identification of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients at high risk of adverse health outcomes remains a major challenge. We aimed to develop and validate prediction models for a variety of adverse health outcomes in RA patients initiating first-line methotrexate (MTX) monotherapy. METHODS: Data from 15 claims and electronic health record databases across 9 countries were used. Models were developed and internally validated on Optum® De-identified Clinformatics® Data Mart Database using L1-regularized logistic regression to estimate the risk of adverse health outcomes within 3 months (leukopenia, pancytopenia, infection), 2 years (myocardial infarction (MI) and stroke), and 5 years (cancers [colorectal, breast, uterine] after treatment initiation. Candidate predictors included demographic variables and past medical history. Models were externally validated on all other databases. Performance was assessed using the area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC) and calibration plots. FINDINGS: Models were developed and internally validated on 21,547 RA patients and externally validated on 131,928 RA patients. Models for serious infection (AUC: internal 0.74, external ranging from 0.62 to 0.83), MI (AUC: internal 0.76, external ranging from 0.56 to 0.82), and stroke (AUC: internal 0.77, external ranging from 0.63 to 0.95), showed good discrimination and adequate calibration. Models for the other outcomes showed modest internal discrimination (AUC < 0.65) and were not externally validated. INTERPRETATION: We developed and validated prediction models for a variety of adverse health outcomes in RA patients initiating first-line MTX monotherapy. Final models for serious infection, MI, and stroke demonstrated good performance across multiple databases and can be studied for clinical use. FUNDING: This activity under the European Health Data & Evidence Network (EHDEN) has received funding from the Innovative Medicines Initiative 2 Joint Undertaking under grant agreement No 806968. This Joint Undertaking receives support from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme and EFPIA.

Phenotype Algorithms to Identify Hidradenitis Suppurativa Using Real-World Data: Development and Validation Study.

BACKGROUND: Hidradenitis suppurativa (HS) is a potentially debilitating, chronic, recurring inflammatory disease. Observational databases provide opportunities to study the epidemiology of HS. OBJECTIVE: This study's objective was to develop phenotype algorithms for HS suitable for epidemiological studies based on a network of observational databases. METHODS: A data-driven approach was used to develop 4 HS algorithms. A literature search identified prior HS algorithms. Standardized databases from the Observational Medical Outcomes Partnership (n=9) were used to develop 2 incident and 2 prevalent HS phenotype algorithms. Two open-source diagnostic tools, CohortDiagnostics and PheValuator, were used to evaluate and generate phenotype performance metric estimates, including sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value. RESULTS: We developed 2 prevalent and 2 incident HS algorithms. Validation showed that PPV estimates were highest (mean 86%) for the prevalent HS algorithm requiring at least two HS diagnosis codes. Sensitivity estimates were highest (mean 58%) for the prevalent HS algorithm requiring at least one HS code. CONCLUSIONS: This study illustrates the evaluation process and provides performance metrics for 2 incident and 2 prevalent HS algorithms across 9 observational databases. The use of a rigorous data-driven approach applied to a large number of databases provides confidence that the HS algorithms can correctly identify HS subjects.

Incidence rate of hospitalization and mortality in the first year following initial diagnosis of cardiac amyloidosis in the US claims databases.

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to determine rates of hospitalization and in-hospital mortality in the first year following amyloidosis diagnosis with cardiac involvement using observational databases. METHODS: Three administrative claims databases, IBM MarketScan® Commercial Claims and Encounters (CCAE), IBM MarketScan® Multi-State Medicare Database (MDCR), and Optum's de-identified Clinformatics® Data Mart Database (Optum) were analyzed. Adults ≥18 years old, with a diagnosis of amyloidosis and evidence of cardiac involvement (i.e. heart failure, heart block, or cardiomyopathy) but no hepatic/renal failure prior to amyloidosis diagnosis were included for analysis. The primary analyses identified patients between 01-01-2010 and 31-12-2017 period. We calculated the rates of hospitalization and in-hospital mortality within 1 year after the initial diagnosis of amyloidosis. A sensitivity analysis was conducted for patients identified in Optum database during 2004-2011 period, which provided additional mortality information. RESULTS: A total of 419, 654, and 922 patients from CCAE, MDCR, and Optum were identified during 2010-2017 period, with mean age of 55.6, 77.8, and 74.2 years, respectively. Within 1 year following initial amyloidosis diagnosis, incidence rates (95% confidence interval [CI]) of hospitalization were 78.4 (66.3, 90.4), 78.6 (69.2, 87.9), and 61.2 (54.4, 68.0) per 100 person-years, rates of in-hospital mortality were 16.5 (11.8, 21.3), 8.4 (5.7, 11.0), and 17.7 (14.5, 21.0) per 100 person-years, in CCAE, MDCR, and Optum, respectively. The mortality rate from the sensitivity analysis among patients identified in Optum 2004-2011 period was higher compared with Optum 2010-2017 period. CONCLUSIONS: The results from this study indicate that amyloidosis with cardiac involvement is a condition with high rates of hospitalization and mortality in the first year after initial diagnosis. Future studies are needed to further evaluate the outcomes within the subtypes of amyloidosis and understand the risk factors associated with poor prognoses.

Evaluation of code-based algorithms to identify pulmonary arterial hypertension and chronic thromboembolic pulmonary hypertension patients in large administrative databases.

Large administrative healthcare (including insurance claims) databases are used for various retrospective real-world evidence studies. However, in pulmonary arterial hypertension and chronic thromboembolic pulmonary hypertension, identifying patients retrospectively based on administrative codes remains challenging, as it relies on code combinations (algorithms) and the accuracy for patient identification of most of them is unknown. This study aimed to assess the performance of various algorithms in correctly identifying patients with pulmonary arterial hypertension or chronic thromboembolic pulmonary hypertension in administrative databases. A systematic literature review was performed to find publications detailing code-based algorithms used to identify pulmonary arterial hypertension and chronic thromboembolic pulmonary hypertension patients. PheValuator, a diagnostic predictive modelling tool, was applied to three US claims databases, yielding models that estimated the probability of a patient having the disease. These models were used to evaluate the performance characteristics of selected pulmonary arterial hypertension and chronic thromboembolic pulmonary hypertension algorithms. With increasing algorithm complexity, average positive predictive value increased (pulmonary arterial hypertension: 13.4-66.0%; chronic thromboembolic pulmonary hypertension: 10.3-75.1%) and average sensitivity decreased (pulmonary arterial hypertension: 61.5-2.7%; chronic thromboembolic pulmonary hypertension: 20.7-0.2%). Specificities and negative predictive values were high (≥97.5%) for all algorithms. Several of the algorithms performed well overall when considering all of these four performance parameters, and all algorithms performed with similar accuracy across the three claims databases studied, even though most were designed for patient identification in a specific database. Therefore, it is the objective of a study that will determine which algorithm may be most suitable; one- or two-component algorithms are most inclusive and three- or four-component algorithms identify most precise pulmonary arterial hypertension or chronic thromboembolic pulmonary hypertension populations, respectively.

Channeling Bias in the Analysis of Risk of Myocardial Infarction, Stroke, Gastrointestinal Bleeding, and Acute Renal Failure with the Use of Paracetamol Compared with Ibuprofen.

INTRODUCTION: Observational studies estimating severe outcomes for paracetamol versus ibuprofen use have acknowledged the specific challenge of channeling bias. A previous study relying on negative controls suggested that using large-scale propensity score (LSPS) matching may mitigate bias better than models using limited lists of covariates. OBJECTIVE: The aim was to assess whether using LSPS matching would enable the evaluation of paracetamol, compared to ibuprofen, and increased risk of myocardial infarction, stroke, gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding, or acute renal failure. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: In a new-user cohort study, we used two propensity score model strategies for confounder controls. One replicated the approach of controlling for a hand-picked list. The second used LSPSs based on all available covariates for matching. Positive and negative controls assessed residual confounding and calibrated confidence intervals. The data source was the Clinical Practices Research Datalink (CPRD). RESULTS: A substantial proportion of negative controls were statistically significant after propensity score matching on the publication covariates, indicating considerable systematic error. LSPS adjustment was less biased, but residual error remained. The calibrated estimates resulted in very wide confidence intervals, indicating large uncertainty in effect estimates once residual error was incorporated. CONCLUSIONS: For paracetamol versus ibuprofen, when using LSPS methods in the CPRD, it is only possible to distinguish true effects if those effects are large (hazard ratio > 2). Due to their smaller hazard ratios, the outcomes under study cannot be differentiated from null effects (represented by negative controls) even if there were a true effect. Based on these data, we conclude that we are unable to determine whether paracetamol is associated with an increased risk of myocardial infarction, stroke, GI bleeding, and acute renal failure compared to ibuprofen, due to residual confounding.

Acute pancreatitis risk in type 2 diabetes patients treated with canagliflozin versus other antihyperglycemic agents: an observational claims database study.

Objective: Observational evidence suggests that patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) are at increased risk for acute pancreatitis (AP) versus those without T2DM. A small number of AP events were reported in clinical trials of the sodium glucose co-transporter 2 inhibitor canagliflozin, though no imbalances were observed between treatment groups. This observational study evaluated risk of AP among new users of canagliflozin compared with new users of six classes of other antihyperglycemic agents (AHAs).Methods: Three US claims databases were analyzed based on a prespecified protocol approved by the European Medicines Agency. Propensity score adjustment controlled for imbalances in baseline covariates. Cox regression models estimated the hazard ratio of AP with canagliflozin compared with other AHAs using on-treatment (primary) and intent-to-treat approaches. Sensitivity analyses assessed robustness of findings.Results: Across the three databases, there were between 12,023-80,986 new users of canagliflozin; the unadjusted incidence rates of AP (per 1000 person-years) were between 1.5-2.2 for canagliflozin and 1.1-6.6 for other AHAs. The risk of AP was generally similar for new users of canagliflozin compared with new users of glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists, dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors, sulfonylureas, thiazolidinediones, insulin, and other AHAs, with no consistent between-treatment differences observed across databases. Intent-to-treat and sensitivity analysis findings were qualitatively consistent with on-treatment findings.Conclusions: In this large observational study, incidence rates of AP in patients with T2DM treated with canagliflozin or other AHAs were generally similar, with no evidence suggesting that canagliflozin is associated with increased risk of AP compared with other AHAs.

Developing Predictive Models to Determine Patients in End-of-Life Care in Administrative Datasets.

INTRODUCTION: In observational studies with mortality endpoints, one needs to consider how to account for subjects whose interventions appear to be part of 'end-of-life' care. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to develop a diagnostic predictive model to identify those in end-of-life care at the time of a drug exposure. METHODS: We used data from four administrative claims datasets from 2000 to 2017. The index date was the date of the first prescription for the last new drug subjects received during their observation period. The outcome of end-of-life care was determined by the presence of one or more codes indicating terminal or hospice care. Models were developed using regularized logistic regression. Internal validation was through examination of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and through model calibration in a 25% subset of the data held back from model training. External validation was through examination of the AUC after applying the model learned on one dataset to the three other datasets. RESULTS: The models showed excellent performance characteristics. Internal validation resulted in AUCs ranging from 0.918 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.905-0.930) to 0.983 (95% CI 0.978-0.987) for the four different datasets. Calibration results were also very good, with slopes near unity. External validation also produced very good to excellent performance metrics, with AUCs ranging from 0.840 (95% CI 0.834-0.846) to 0.956 (95% CI 0.952-0.960). CONCLUSION: These results show that developing diagnostic predictive models for determining subjects in end-of-life care at the time of a drug treatment is possible and may improve the validity of the risk profile for those treatments.

Comparison of First-Line Dual Combination Treatments in Hypertension: Real-World Evidence from Multinational Heterogeneous Cohorts.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: 2018 ESC/ESH Hypertension guideline recommends 2-drug combination as initial anti-hypertensive therapy. However, real-world evidence for effectiveness of recommended regimens remains limited. We aimed to compare the effectiveness of first-line anti-hypertensive treatment combining 2 out of the following classes: angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitors/angiotensin-receptor blocker (A), calcium channel blocker (C), and thiazide-type diuretics (D). METHODS: Treatment-naïve hypertensive adults without cardiovascular disease (CVD) who initiated dual anti-hypertensive medications were identified in 5 databases from US and Korea. The patients were matched for each comparison set by large-scale propensity score matching. Primary endpoint was all-cause mortality. Myocardial infarction, heart failure, stroke, and major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events as a composite outcome comprised the secondary measure. RESULTS: A total of 987,983 patients met the eligibility criteria. After matching, 222,686, 32,344, and 38,513 patients were allocated to A+C vs. A+D, C+D vs. A+C, and C+D vs. A+D comparison, respectively. There was no significant difference in the mortality during total of 1,806,077 person-years: A+C vs. A+D (hazard ratio [HR], 1.08; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.97-1.20; p=0.127), C+D vs. A+C (HR, 0.93; 95% CI, 0.87-1.01; p=0.067), and C+D vs. A+D (HR, 1.18; 95% CI, 0.95-1.47; p=0.104). A+C was associated with a slightly higher risk of heart failure (HR, 1.09; 95% CI, 1.01-1.18; p=0.040) and stroke (HR, 1.08; 95% CI, 1.01-1.17; p=0.040) than A+D. CONCLUSIONS: There was no significant difference in mortality among A+C, A+D, and C+D combination treatment in patients without previous CVD. This finding was consistent across multi-national heterogeneous cohorts in real-world practice.

PheValuator: Development and evaluation of a phenotype algorithm evaluator.

BACKGROUND: The primary approach for defining disease in observational healthcare databases is to construct phenotype algorithms (PAs), rule-based heuristics predicated on the presence, absence, and temporal logic of clinical observations. However, a complete evaluation of PAs, i.e., determining sensitivity, specificity, and positive predictive value (PPV), is rarely performed. In this study, we propose a tool (PheValuator) to efficiently estimate a complete PA evaluation. METHODS: We used 4 administrative claims datasets: OptumInsight's de-identified Clinformatics™ Datamart (Eden Prairie,MN); IBM MarketScan Multi-State Medicaid); IBM MarketScan Medicare Supplemental Beneficiaries; and IBM MarketScan Commercial Claims and Encounters from 2000 to 2017. Using PheValuator involves (1) creating a diagnostic predictive model for the phenotype, (2) applying the model to a large set of randomly selected subjects, and (3) comparing each subject's predicted probability for the phenotype to inclusion/exclusion in PAs. We used the predictions as a 'probabilistic gold standard' measure to classify positive/negative cases. We examined 4 phenotypes: myocardial infarction, cerebral infarction, chronic kidney disease, and atrial fibrillation. We examined several PAs for each phenotype including 1-time (1X) occurrence of the diagnosis code in the subject's record and 1-time occurrence of the diagnosis in an inpatient setting with the diagnosis code as the primary reason for admission (1X-IP-1stPos). RESULTS: Across phenotypes, the 1X PA showed the highest sensitivity/lowest PPV among all PAs. 1X-IP-1stPos yielded the highest PPV/lowest sensitivity. Specificity was very high across algorithms. We found similar results between algorithms across datasets. CONCLUSION: PheValuator appears to show promise as a tool to estimate PA performance characteristics.

Channeling in the Use of Nonprescription Paracetamol and Ibuprofen in an Electronic Medical Records Database: Evidence and Implications.

INTRODUCTION: Over-the-counter analgesics such as paracetamol and ibuprofen are among the most widely used, and having a good understanding of their safety profile is important to public health. Prior observational studies estimating the risks associated with paracetamol use acknowledge the inherent limitations of these studies. One threat to the validity of observational studies is channeling bias, i.e. the notion that patients are systematically exposed to one drug or the other, based on current and past comorbidities, in a manner that affects estimated relative risk. OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to examine whether evidence of channeling bias exists in observational studies that compare paracetamol with ibuprofen, and, if so, the extent to which confounding adjustment can mitigate this bias. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: In a cohort of 140,770 patients, we examined whether those who received any paracetamol (including concomitant users) were more likely to have prior diagnoses of gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding, myocardial infarction (MI), stroke, or renal disease than those who received ibuprofen alone. We compared propensity score distributions between drugs, and examined the degree to which channeling bias could be controlled using a combination of negative control disease outcome models and large-scale propensity score matching. Analyses were conducted using the Clinical Practice Research Datalink. RESULTS: The proportions of prior MI, GI bleeding, renal disease, and stroke were significantly higher in those prescribed any paracetamol versus ibuprofen alone, after adjusting for sex and age. We were not able to adequately remove selection bias using a selected set of covariates for propensity score adjustment; however, when we fit the propensity score model using a substantially larger number of covariates, evidence of residual bias was attenuated. CONCLUSIONS: Although using selected covariates for propensity score adjustment may not sufficiently reduce bias, large-scale propensity score matching offers a novel approach to consider to mitigate the effects of channeling bias.