Conflicts and opportunities for commercial tree plantation expansion and biodiversity restoration across Brazil.

Substantial global restoration commitments are occurring alongside a rapid expansion in land-hungry tropical commodities, including to supply increasing demand for wood products. Future commercial tree plantations may deliver high timber yields, shrinking the footprint of production forestry, but there is an as-yet unquantified risk that plantations may expand into priority restoration areas, with marked environmental costs. Focusing on Brazil-a country of exceptional restoration importance and one of the largest tropical timber producers-we use random forest models and information on the economic, social, and spatial drivers of historic commercial tree plantation expansion to estimate and map the probability of future monoculture tree plantation expansion between 2020 and 2030. We then evaluate potential plantation-restoration conflicts and opportunities at national and biome-scales and under different future production and restoration pathways. Our simulations show that of 2.8 Mha of future plantation expansion (equivalent to plantation expansion 2010-2020), ~78,000 ha (3%) is forecast to occur in the top 1% of restoration priority areas for terrestrial vertebrates, with ~547,500 ha (20%) and ~1,300,000 ha (46%) in the top 10% and 30% of priority areas, respectively. Just ~459,000 ha (16%) of expansion is forecast within low-restoration areas (bottom 30% restoration priorities), and the first 1 Mha of plantation expansion is likely to have disproportionate impacts, with potential restoration-plantation overlap starkest in the Atlantic Forest but prominent in the Pampas and Cerrado as well. Our findings suggest that robust, coherent land-use policies must be deployed to ensure that significant trade-offs between restoration and production objectives are navigated, and that commodity expansion does not undermine the most tractable conservation gains under emerging global restoration agendas. They also highlight the potentially significant role an engaged forestry sector could play in improving biodiversity outcomes in restoration projects in Brazil, and presumably elsewhere.

Densities of Bornean orang-utans (Pongo pygmaeus morio) in heavily degraded forest and oil palm plantations in Sabah, Borneo.

The conversion of forest to agriculture continues to contribute to the loss and fragmentation of remaining orang-utan habitat. There are still few published estimates of orang-utan densities in these heavily modified agricultural areas to inform range-wide population assessments and conservation strategies. In addition, little is known about what landscape features promote orang-utan habitat use. Using indirect nest count methods, we implemented surveys and estimated population densities of the Northeast Bornean orang-utan (Pongo pygmaeus morio) across the continuous logged forest and forest remnants in a recently salvage-logged area and oil palm plantations in Sabah, Malaysian Borneo. We then assessed the influence of landscape features and forest structural metrics obtained from LiDAR data on estimates of orang-utan density. Recent salvage logging appeared to have a little short-term effect on orang-utan density (2.35 ind/km 2 ), which remained similar to recovering logged forest nearby (2.32 ind/km 2 ). Orang-utans were also present in remnant forest patches in oil palm plantations, but at significantly lower numbers (0.82 ind/km 2 ) than nearby logged forest and salvage-logged areas. Densities were strongly influenced by variation in canopy height but were not associated with other potential covariates. Our findings suggest that orang-utans currently exist, at least in the short-term, within human-modified landscapes, providing that remnant forest patches remain. We urge greater recognition of the role that these degraded habitats can have in supporting orang-utan populations, and that future range-wide analyses and conservation strategies better incorporate data from human-modified landscapes.