Adjuvant Everolimus in Patients with Completely Resected, Very High-risk Renal Cell Carcinoma of Clear Cell Histology: Results from the Phase 3 Placebo-controlled SWOG S0931 (EVEREST) Trial.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: EVEREST is a phase 3 trial in patients with renal cell cancer (RCC) at intermediate-high or very high risk of recurrence after nephrectomy who were randomized to receive adjuvant everolimus or placebo. Longer recurrence-free survival (RFS) was observed with everolimus (hazard ratio [HR] 0.85, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.72-1.00; p = 0.051), but the nominal significance level (p = 0.044) was not reached. To contextualize these results with positive phase 3 trials of adjuvant sunitinib and pembrolizumab, we conducted a secondary analysis in a similar population of EVEREST patients with very high-risk disease and clear cell histology. METHODS: Postnephrectomy patients with any clear cell component and very high-risk disease, defined as pT3a (grade 3-4), pT3b-c (any grade), T4 (any grade), or node-positive status (N+), were identified. A Cox regression model stratified by performance status was used to compare RFS and overall survival (OS) between the treatment arms. KEY FINDINGS AND LIMITATIONS: Of 1499 patients, 717 had clear cell histology and very high-risk disease; 699 met the eligibility criteria, of whom 348 were randomized to everolimus arm, and 351 to the placebo arm. Patient characteristics were similar between the arms. Only 163/348 (47%) patients in the everolimus arm completed all treatment as planned, versus 225/351 (64%) in the placebo arm. Adjuvant everolimus resulted in a statistically significant improvement in RFS (HR 0.80; 95%CI 0.65-0.99, p = 0.041). Evidence of a survival benefit was not seen (HR 0.85; 95%CI 0.64-1.14, p = 0.3) CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL IMPLICATIONS: In patients with clear cell RCC at very high-risk for recurrence, adjuvant everolimus resulted in significantly improved RFS compared to placebo but resulted in a high discontinuation rate due to adverse events. Although the treatment HR for OS was consistent with RFS findings, it did not reach statistical significance. With a focus on risk stratification tools and/or biomarkers to minimize toxicity risk in those not likely to benefit, this information can help inform the design of future adjuvant trials in high-risk RCC PATIENT SUMMARY: We assessed treatment with everolimus in comparison to placebo after complete surgical removal of clear-cell kidney cancer at very high risk of recurrence. We found that survival outcomes were better for patients treated with everolimus, although these patients had a higher rate of side effects.

Three- and Seven-month Prostate-specific Antigen Levels as Prognostic Markers for Overall Survival in Metastatic Hormone-sensitive Prostate Cancer: Results from SWOG S1216, a Phase 3 Randomized Trial of Androgen Deprivation Plus Orteronel or Bicalutamide.

BACKGROUND: A robust decrease in prostate-specific antigen (PSA) in response to androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) has been evaluated as a prognostic factor in patients with metastatic hormone-sensitive prostate cancer (mHSPC) since 2006, but the treatment of mHSPC has since evolved to include intensified therapy. OBJECTIVE: We assessed the association of PSA levels at 3 (PSA-3mo) and 7 (PSA-7mo) mo with overall survival (OS) in patients with mHSPC treated with ADT combined with either bicalutamide or orteronel in the S1216 phase 3 clinical trial. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: PSA responses to treatment of patients in the S1216 trial were categorized as: complete response (CR) if PSA was ≤0.2 ng/ml, partial response if PSA was >0.2 and ≤4 ng/ml, and no response (NR) if PSA was >4 ng/ml. OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: A Cox analysis (adjusted for treatment arm and three stratification factors: performance status, severity of disease, and early vs late induction) was used for OS association. While PSA-7mo association was a prespecified objective, PSA-3mo association was also evaluated. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS: A total of 1251 and 1231 patients from the S1216 study were evaluable for PSA-3mo and PSA-7mo, respectively. A PSA-7mo CR was associated with improved OS compared with NR (HR: 0.20; p < 0.0001). A PSA-3mo CR showed a similar association to NR (HR: 0.34; p < 0.0001). The association of a PSA response with survival did not differ by treatment arm at either time point. CONCLUSIONS: The PSA-3mo and PSA-7mo responses were strongly associated with OS; taken with other emerging prognostic biomarkers, these markers may allow for early identification of patients at the highest risk of death, aid with counseling in clinical practice, and permit design of future clinical trials targeting these patients. PATIENT SUMMARY: A low prostate-specific antigen level at 3 or 7 mo after starting treatment for metastatic hormone-sensitive prostate cancer predicts longer survival regardless of the first treatment given with androgen deprivation therapy.

Markers of bone metabolism and overall survival in men with bone-metastatic hormone sensitive prostate cancer (HSPC): A subset analysis of SWOG S1216, a phase III trial of androgen deprivation with or without orteronel.

BACKGROUND: Circulating biomarkers of bone metabolism are significantly associated with overall survival (OS) in men with advanced prostate cancer. In the SWOG S1216 phase III trial, we showed that elevated bone biomarkers are significantly associated with an increased risk of death in hormone-sensitive prostate cancer (HSPC) regardless of the status of bone metastases, identifying three risk groups with differential OS outcomes based on bone biomarker status. Here we report the association of bone biomarkers with OS in men with HSPC and documented skeletal metastases as part of a planned subset analysis of S1216. METHODS: Bone resorption [C-telopeptide (CTx); Pyridinoline (PYD)] and bone formation markers [C-terminal collagen propeptide (CICP); bone alkaline phosphatase (BAP)] were assessed in blood from men with bone metastatic HSPC. Patients were randomly divided into training (n = 238) and validation (n = 475) sets. In the training set, recursive partitioning that maximizes discrimination of OS was used to identify the dichotomous cut-point for each biomarker and for a combination of biomarker split points to define prognostic groups. In the validation set, Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess the impact of biomarkers on OS, adjusted for patient and tumor characteristics. RESULTS: Of 1279 men, 713 had both baseline bone metastases and evaluable bone biomarkers. Patient characteristics were similar between the overall population and the subset with bone metastases. Elevated levels of CICP, CTX, and PYD were strongly prognostic for OS. Hazard ratios (95% CI) for OS adjusted for treatment arm and baseline clinical variables were: BAP-1.31 (0.93, 1.84), p = 0.12; CICP-1.58 (1.09, 2.29), p < 0.02; CTx - 1.55 (1.12, 2.15), p = 0.008; and PYD-1.66 (1.27, 2.217), p = 0.0002. There was no evidence of interaction between elevated biomarkers and treatment (all p > 0.2). Recursive partitioning algorithms identified four groups of patients with differential OS outcomes based on bone biomarkers, adjusted for baseline clinical variables, with median OS ranging from 2.3 years (highest risk group) to 7.5 years (lowest risk group). CONCLUSIONS: In this planned S1216 subset analysis of men with HSPC and bone metastases, elevated serum markers of bone metabolism were significantly associated with worse OS. Bone biomarker levels alone and in combination with patient and tumor characteristics identify unique subsets of men with differential OS outcomes. GOV IDENTIFIER: NCT01809691.

Radiographic Progression-Free Survival and Clinical Progression-Free Survival as Potential Surrogates for Overall Survival in Men With Metastatic Hormone-Sensitive Prostate Cancer.

PURPOSE: Despite major increases in the longevity of men with metastatic hormone-sensitive prostate cancer (mHSPC), most men still die of prostate cancer. Phase III trials assessing new therapies in mHSPC with overall survival (OS) as the primary end point will take approximately a decade to complete. We investigated whether radiographic progression-free survival (rPFS) and clinical PFS (cPFS) are valid surrogates for OS in men with mHSPC and could potentially be used to expedite future phase III clinical trials. METHODS: We obtained individual patient data (IPD) from 9 eligible randomized trials comparing treatment regimens (different androgen deprivation therapy [ADT] strategies or ADT plus docetaxel in the control or research arms) in mHSPC. rPFS was defined as the time from random assignment to radiographic progression or death from any cause whichever occurred first; cPFS was defined as the time from random assignment to the date of radiographic progression, symptoms, initiation of new treatment, or death, whichever occurred first. We implemented a two-stage meta-analytic validation model where conditions of patient-level and trial-level surrogacy had to be met. We then computed the surrogate threshold effect (STE). RESULTS: IPD from 6,390 patients randomly assigned from 1994 to 2012 from 13 units were pooled for a stratified analysis. The median OS, rPFS, and cPFS were 4.3 (95% CI, 4.2 to 4.5), 2.4 (95% CI, 2.3 to 2.5), and 2.3 years (95% CI, 2.2 to 2.4), respectively. The STEs were 0.80 and 0.81 for rPFS and cPFS end points, respectively. CONCLUSION: Both rPFS and cPFS appear to be promising surrogate end points for OS. The STE of 0.80 or higher makes it viable for either rPFS or cPFS to be used as the primary end point that is surrogate for OS in phase III mHSPC trials with testosterone suppression alone as the backbone therapy and would expedite trial conduct.

Association of Molecular Subtypes with Pathologic Response, PFS, and OS in a Phase II Study of COXEN with Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy for Muscle-invasive Bladder Cancer.

PURPOSE: The Coexpression Extrapolation (COXEN) gene expression model with chemotherapy-specific scores [for methotrexate, vinblastine, adriamycin, cisplatin (ddMVAC) and gemcitabine/cisplatin (GC)] was developed to identify responders to neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC). We investigated RNA-based molecular subtypes as additional predictive biomarkers for NAC response, progression-free survival (PFS), and overall survival (OS) in patients treated in S1314. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: A total of 237 patients were randomized between four cycles of ddMVAC (51%) and GC (49%). On the basis of Affymetrix transcriptomic data, we determined subtypes using three classifiers: TCGA (k = 5), Consensus (k = 6), and MD Anderson (MDA; k = 3) and assessed subtype association with path response to NAC and determined associations with COXEN. We also tested whether each classifier contributed additional predictive power when added to a model based on predefined stratification (strat) factors (PS 0 vs. 1; T2 vs. T3, T4a). RESULTS: A total of 155 patients had gene expression results, received at least three of four cycles of NAC, and had pT-N response based on radical cystectomy. TCGA three-group classifier basal-squamous (BS)/neuronal, luminal (Lum), Lum infiltrated, and GC COXEN score yielded the largest AUCs for pT0 (0.59, P = 0.28; 0.60, P = 0.18, respectively). For downstaging (

Bone Biomarkers and Subsequent Survival in Men with Hormone-sensitive Prostate Cancer: Results from the SWOG S1216 Phase 3 Trial of Androgen Deprivation Therapy with or Without Orteronel.

BACKGROUND: Bone biomarkers are strongly prognostic for overall survival (OS) in men with castration-resistant prostate cancer but not fully established for hormone-sensitive prostate cancer (HSPC). OBJECTIVE: Bone biomarkers in HSPC were prospectively evaluated as part of a phase 3 study of androgen deprivation therapy ± the CYP17 inhibitor orteronel. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Patients were randomly divided into training (n = 316) and validation (n = 633) sets. Recursive partitioning and Cox proportional hazard models were employed. OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: Bone resorption (C-telopeptide and pyridinoline) and bone formation markers (C-terminal collagen propeptide and bone alkaline phosphatase) were assessed from patient sera. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS: Of 1279 men, 949 had evaluable baseline bone biomarkers. Optimal cutoffs were identified to define elevated levels of each of the four biomarkers (all p < 0.05) that were associated with worse OS. After adjusting for clinical risk factors in the validation set, elevated bone biomarkers were statistically significantly associated with an increased risk of death (hazard ratios ranging from 1.37 to 1.92). Recursive partitioning algorithms applied to the training set identified three risk groups (low, intermediate, and poor) with differential OS outcomes (median OS: 8.2, 5.1, and 2.1 yr, respectively) based on combinations of bone biomarkers. These results were confirmed in the validation set. CONCLUSIONS: In men with HSPC initiating androgen deprivation therapy, bone biomarkers are strongly and independently prognostic for OS. Bone biomarker levels alone or in combination with clinical covariates identify unique subsets of men with differential OS outcomes. These results validate the clinical value of bone biomarker assessment in the HSPC state, extending bone biomarker utility beyond the castration-resistant state. PATIENT SUMMARY: In men with newly diagnosed metastatic prostate cancer, high levels of bone turnover biomarkers are associated with a shorter lifespan.

Genome-Wide Gene-Environment Interaction Analyses to Understand the Relationship between Red Meat and Processed Meat Intake and Colorectal Cancer Risk.

BACKGROUND: High red meat and/or processed meat consumption are established colorectal cancer risk factors. We conducted a genome-wide gene-environment (GxE) interaction analysis to identify genetic variants that may modify these associations. METHODS: A pooled sample of 29,842 colorectal cancer cases and 39,635 controls of European ancestry from 27 studies were included. Quantiles for red meat and processed meat intake were constructed from harmonized questionnaire data. Genotyping arrays were imputed to the Haplotype Reference Consortium. Two-step EDGE and joint tests of GxE interaction were utilized in our genome-wide scan. RESULTS: Meta-analyses confirmed positive associations between increased consumption of red meat and processed meat with colorectal cancer risk [per quartile red meat OR = 1.30; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.21-1.41; processed meat OR = 1.40; 95% CI = 1.20-1.63]. Two significant genome-wide GxE interactions for red meat consumption were found. Joint GxE tests revealed the rs4871179 SNP in chromosome 8 (downstream of HAS2); greater than median of consumption ORs = 1.38 (95% CI = 1.29-1.46), 1.20 (95% CI = 1.12-1.27), and 1.07 (95% CI = 0.95-1.19) for CC, CG, and GG, respectively. The two-step EDGE method identified the rs35352860 SNP in chromosome 18 (SMAD7 intron); greater than median of consumption ORs = 1.18 (95% CI = 1.11-1.24), 1.35 (95% CI = 1.26-1.44), and 1.46 (95% CI = 1.26-1.69) for CC, CT, and TT, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: We propose two novel biomarkers that support the role of meat consumption with an increased risk of colorectal cancer. IMPACT: The reported GxE interactions may explain the increased risk of colorectal cancer in certain population subgroups.

Prostate Safety Events During Testosterone Replacement Therapy in Men With Hypogonadism: A Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: The effect of testosterone replacement therapy (TRT) on the risk of prostate cancer and other adverse prostate events is unknown. Objective: To compare the effect of TRT vs placebo on the incidences of high-grade prostate cancers (Gleason score ≥4 + 3), any prostate cancer, acute urinary retention, invasive prostate procedures, and pharmacologic treatment for lower urinary tract symptoms in men with hypogonadism. Design, Setting, and Participants: This placebo-controlled, double-blind randomized clinical trial enrolled 5246 men (aged 45-80 years) from 316 US trial sites who had 2 testosterone concentrations less than 300 ng/dL, hypogonadal symptoms, and cardiovascular disease (CVD) or increased CVD risk. Men with prostate-specific antigen (PSA) concentrations greater than 3.0 ng/mL and International Prostate Symptom Score (IPSS) greater than 19 were excluded. Enrollment took place between May 23, 2018, and February 1, 2022, and end-of-study visits were conducted between May 31, 2022, and January 19, 2023. Intervention: Participants were randomized, with stratification for prior CVD, to topical 1.62% testosterone gel or placebo. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary prostate safety end point was the incidence of adjudicated high-grade prostate cancer. Secondary end points included incidence of any adjudicated prostate cancer, acute urinary retention, invasive prostate surgical procedure, prostate biopsy, and new pharmacologic treatment. Intervention effect was analyzed using a discrete-time proportional hazards model. Results: A total of 5204 men (mean [SD] age, 63.3 [7.9] years) were analyzed. At baseline, the mean (SD) PSA concentration was 0.92 (0.67) ng/mL, and the mean (SD) IPSS was 7.1 (5.6). The mean (SD) treatment duration as 21.8 (14.2) months in the TRT group and 21.6 (14.0) months in the placebo group. During 14 304 person-years of follow-up, the incidence of high-grade prostate cancer (5 of 2596 [0.19%] in the TRT group vs 3 of 2602 [0.12%] in the placebo group; hazard ratio, 1.62; 95% CI, 0.39-6.77; P = .51) did not differ significantly between groups; the incidences of any prostate cancer, acute urinary retention, invasive surgical procedures, prostate biopsy, and new pharmacologic treatment also did not differ significantly. Change in IPSS did not differ between groups. The PSA concentrations increased more in testosterone-treated than placebo-treated men. Conclusions and Relevance: In a population of middle-aged and older men with hypogonadism, carefully evaluated to exclude those at high risk of prostate cancer, the incidences of high-grade or any prostate cancer and other prostate events were low and did not differ significantly between testosterone- and placebo-treated men. The study's findings may facilitate a more informed appraisal of the potential risks of TRT. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT03518034.

Combining Asian and European genome-wide association studies of colorectal cancer improves risk prediction across racial and ethnic populations.

Polygenic risk scores (PRS) have great potential to guide precision colorectal cancer (CRC) prevention by identifying those at higher risk to undertake targeted screening. However, current PRS using European ancestry data have sub-optimal performance in non-European ancestry populations, limiting their utility among these populations. Towards addressing this deficiency, we expand PRS development for CRC by incorporating Asian ancestry data (21,731 cases; 47,444 controls) into European ancestry training datasets (78,473 cases; 107,143 controls). The AUC estimates (95% CI) of PRS are 0.63(0.62-0.64), 0.59(0.57-0.61), 0.62(0.60-0.63), and 0.65(0.63-0.66) in independent datasets including 1681-3651 cases and 8696-115,105 controls of Asian, Black/African American, Latinx/Hispanic, and non-Hispanic White, respectively. They are significantly better than the European-centric PRS in all four major US racial and ethnic groups (p-values < 0.05). Further inclusion of non-European ancestry populations, especially Black/African American and Latinx/Hispanic, is needed to improve the risk prediction and enhance equity in applying PRS in clinical practice.

Phase 2 Trial of Atezolizumab in Bacillus Calmette-Guérin-unresponsive High-risk Non-muscle-invasive Bladder Cancer: SWOG S1605.

BACKGROUND: Although radical cystectomy (RC) is the standard of care for patients with bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG)-unresponsive high-risk non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC), many patients are ineligible for surgery or elect bladder preservation. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the efficacy and safety of atezolizumab in BCG-unresponsive high-risk NMIBC. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This was a single-arm phase 2 trial in patients with BCG-unresponsive high-risk NMIBC who were ineligible for or declined RC. INTERVENTION: Intravenous atezolizumab every 3 wk for 1 yr. OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: The primary endpoint was the pathological complete response (CR) rate for patients with carcinoma in situ (CIS) determined via mandatory biopsy at 6 mo. Event-free survival (EFS) at 18 mo for patients with non-CIS tumors and treatment-related adverse events (TRAEs) were key secondary endpoints. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS: Of 172 patients enrolled in the trial, 166 received at least one dose of atezolizumab (safety analysis) and 129 were eligible (efficacy analysis). Of the 74 patients with CIS, 20 (27%) experienced a CR at 6 mo. The median duration of response was 17 mo, and 56% (95% confidence interval [CI] 34-77%) of the responses were durable to at least 12 mo. The 18-mo actuarial EFS rate among 55 patients with Ta/T1 disease was 49% (90% CI 38-60%). Twelve of 129 eligible patients experienced progression to muscle-invasive or metastatic disease. Grade 3-5 TRAEs occurred in 26 patients (16%), including three treatment-related deaths. The study was limited by the small sample size and a high rate of patient ineligibility. CONCLUSIONS: The efficacy of atezolizumab observed among patients with BCG-unresponsive NMIBC is similar to results from similar trials with other agents, but did not meet the prespecified efficacy threshold. Modest efficacy needs to be balanced with a significant rate of TRAEs and the risk of disease progression when considering systemic immunotherapy in early-stage bladder cancer. PATIENT SUMMARY: We tested intravenous immunotherapy (atezolizumab) in patients with high-risk non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer that recurred after BCG (bacillus Calmette-Guérin) treatment. Although we found similar outcomes to previous trials, the benefit of this therapy is modest and needs to be carefully balanced with the significant risk of side effects. This trial is registered on ClinicalTrials.gov as NCT02844816.

Long-term Outcomes from a Phase 2 Study of Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy for Muscle-invasive Bladder Cancer (SWOG S1314; NCT02177695).

BACKGROUND: The COXEN gene expression model was evaluated for prediction of response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy for muscle-invasive bladder cancer (MIBC). OBJECTIVE: To conduct a secondary analysis of the association of each COXEN score with event-free survival (EFS) and overall survival (OS) and by treatment arm. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This was a randomized phase 2 trial of neoadjuvant gemcitabine-cisplatin (GC) or dose-dense methotrexate-vinblastine-adriamycin-cisplatin (ddMVAC) in MIBC. INTERVENTION: Patients were randomized to ddMVAC (every 14 d) or GC (every 21 d), both for four cycles. OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: EFS events were defined as progression or death before scheduled surgery, a decision to not undergo surgery, recurrence, or death due to any cause after surgery. Cox regression was used to evaluate the COXEN score or treatment arm association with EFS and OS. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS: A total of 167 evaluable patients were included in the COXEN analysis. The COXEN scores were not significantly prognostic for OS or EFS in the respective arms, but the GC COXEN score had a hazard ratio (HR) of 0.45 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.20-0.99; p = 0.047) when the arms were pooled. In the intent-to-treat analysis (n = 227), there was no significant difference between ddMVAC and GC for OS (HR 0.87, 95% CI 0.54-1.40; p = 0.57) or EFS (HR 0.86, 95% CI 0.59-1.26; p = 0.45). Among the 192 patients who underwent surgery, pathologic response (pT0 vs downstaging vs no response) was strongly correlated with superior postsurgical survival (5-yr OS 90%, 89% and 52%, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: The COXEN GC score has prognostic value for patients receiving cisplatin-based neoadjuvant treatment. The randomized, prospective design provides estimates of OS and EFS for GC and ddMVAC in this population. Pathologic response (

Adjuvant everolimus after surgery for renal cell carcinoma (EVEREST): a double-blind, placebo-controlled, randomised, phase 3 trial.

BACKGROUND: Patients undergoing resection of renal cell carcinoma are at risk of disease relapse. We evaluated the effectiveness of the mammalian target of rapamycin inhibitor everolimus administered after surgery. METHODS: In this randomised, double-blind, phase 3 trial, we enrolled adults with histologically confirmed renal cell carcinoma who had undergone a full surgical resection and were at intermediate-high or very high risk of recurrence at 398 academic and community institution centres in the USA. After nephrectomy, patients were randomly assigned (1:1) via a central web-based application using a dynamic balancing algorithm to receive 10 mg oral everolimus daily or placebo for 54 weeks. The primary endpoint was recurrence-free survival. Efficacy analyses included all eligible, randomly assigned patients; safety analysis included all patients who received treatment. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT01120249 and is closed to new participants. FINDINGS: Between April 1, 2011, and Sept 15, 2016, a total of 1545 patients were randomly assigned to receive everolimus (n=775) or placebo (n=770), of whom 755 assigned to everolimus and 744 assigned to placebo were eligible for inclusion in the efficacy analysis. With a median follow-up of 76 months (IQR 61-92), recurrence-free survival was longer with everolimus than with placebo (5-year recurrence-free survival 67% [95% CI 63-70] vs 63% [60-67]; stratified log-rank p=0·050; stratified hazard ratio [HR] 0·85, 95% CI 0·72-1·00; p=0·051) but did not meet the prespecified p value for statistical significance of 0·044. Recurrence-free survival was longer with everolimus than with placebo in the very-high-risk group (HR 0·79, 95% CI 0·65-0·97; p=0·022) but not in the intermediate-high-risk group (0·99, 0·73-1·35; p=0·96). Grade 3 or higher adverse events occurred in 343 (46%) of 740 patients who received everolimus and 79 (11%) of 723 who received placebo. INTERPRETATION: Postoperative everolimus did not improve recurrence-free survival compared with placebo among patients with renal cell carcinoma at high risk of recurrence after nephrectomy. These results do not support the adjuvant use of everolimus for renal cell carcinoma after surgery. FUNDING: US National Institutes of Health, National Cancer Institute, National Clinical Trials Network, Novartis Pharmaceuticals Corporation, and The Hope Foundation.

Evaluating approaches for constructing polygenic risk scores for prostate cancer in men of African and European ancestry.

Genome-wide polygenic risk scores (GW-PRSs) have been reported to have better predictive ability than PRSs based on genome-wide significance thresholds across numerous traits. We compared the predictive ability of several GW-PRS approaches to a recently developed PRS of 269 established prostate cancer-risk variants from multi-ancestry GWASs and fine-mapping studies (PRS269). GW-PRS models were trained with a large and diverse prostate cancer GWAS of 107,247 cases and 127,006 controls that we previously used to develop the multi-ancestry PRS269. Resulting models were independently tested in 1,586 cases and 1,047 controls of African ancestry from the California Uganda Study and 8,046 cases and 191,825 controls of European ancestry from the UK Biobank and further validated in 13,643 cases and 210,214 controls of European ancestry and 6,353 cases and 53,362 controls of African ancestry from the Million Veteran Program. In the testing data, the best performing GW-PRS approach had AUCs of 0.656 (95% CI = 0.635-0.677) in African and 0.844 (95% CI = 0.840-0.848) in European ancestry men and corresponding prostate cancer ORs of 1.83 (95% CI = 1.67-2.00) and 2.19 (95% CI = 2.14-2.25), respectively, for each SD unit increase in the GW-PRS. Compared to the GW-PRS, in African and European ancestry men, the PRS269 had larger or similar AUCs (AUC = 0.679, 95% CI = 0.659-0.700 and AUC = 0.845, 95% CI = 0.841-0.849, respectively) and comparable prostate cancer ORs (OR = 2.05, 95% CI = 1.87-2.26 and OR = 2.21, 95% CI = 2.16-2.26, respectively). Findings were similar in the validation studies. This investigation suggests that current GW-PRS approaches may not improve the ability to predict prostate cancer risk compared to the PRS269 developed from multi-ancestry GWASs and fine-mapping.

Evaluating Approaches for Constructing Polygenic Risk Scores for Prostate Cancer in Men of African and European Ancestry.

Genome-wide polygenic risk scores (GW-PRS) have been reported to have better predictive ability than PRS based on genome-wide significance thresholds across numerous traits. We compared the predictive ability of several GW-PRS approaches to a recently developed PRS of 269 established prostate cancer risk variants from multi-ancestry GWAS and fine-mapping studies (PRS 269 ). GW-PRS models were trained using a large and diverse prostate cancer GWAS of 107,247 cases and 127,006 controls used to develop the multi-ancestry PRS 269 . Resulting models were independently tested in 1,586 cases and 1,047 controls of African ancestry from the California/Uganda Study and 8,046 cases and 191,825 controls of European ancestry from the UK Biobank and further validated in 13,643 cases and 210,214 controls of European ancestry and 6,353 cases and 53,362 controls of African ancestry from the Million Veteran Program. In the testing data, the best performing GW-PRS approach had AUCs of 0.656 (95% CI=0.635-0.677) in African and 0.844 (95% CI=0.840-0.848) in European ancestry men and corresponding prostate cancer OR of 1.83 (95% CI=1.67-2.00) and 2.19 (95% CI=2.14-2.25), respectively, for each SD unit increase in the GW-PRS. However, compared to the GW-PRS, in African and European ancestry men, the PRS 269 had larger or similar AUCs (AUC=0.679, 95% CI=0.659-0.700 and AUC=0.845, 95% CI=0.841-0.849, respectively) and comparable prostate cancer OR (OR=2.05, 95% CI=1.87-2.26 and OR=2.21, 95% CI=2.16-2.26, respectively). Findings were similar in the validation data. This investigation suggests that current GW-PRS approaches may not improve the ability to predict prostate cancer risk compared to the multi-ancestry PRS 269 constructed with fine-mapping.

Biochemical activity induced by a germline variation in KLK3 (PSA) associates with cellular function and clinical outcome in prostate cancer.

Genetic variation at the 19q13.3 KLK locus is linked with prostate cancer susceptibility. The non-synonymous KLK3 SNP, rs17632542 (c.536T>C; Ile163Thr-substitution in PSA) is associated with reduced prostate cancer risk, however, the functional relevance is unknown. Here, we identify that the SNP variant-induced change in PSA biochemical activity as a previously undescribed function mediating prostate cancer pathogenesis. The 'Thr' PSA variant led to small subcutaneous tumours, supporting reduced prostate cancer risk. However, 'Thr' PSA also displayed higher metastatic potential with pronounced osteolytic activity in an experimental metastasis in-vivo model. Biochemical characterization of this PSA variant demonstrated markedly reduced proteolytic activity that correlated with differences in in-vivo tumour burden. The SNP is associated with increased risk for aggressive disease and prostate cancer-specific mortality in three independent cohorts, highlighting its critical function in mediating metastasis. Carriers of this SNP allele had reduced serum total PSA and a higher free/total PSA ratio that could contribute to late biopsy decisions and delay in diagnosis. Our results provide a molecular explanation for the prominent 19q13.3 KLK locus, rs17632542 SNP, association with a spectrum of prostate cancer clinical outcomes.

Application of Mendelian randomization to explore the causal role of the human gut microbiome in colorectal cancer.

The role of the human gut microbiome in colorectal cancer (CRC) is unclear as most studies on the topic are unable to discern correlation from causation. We apply two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) to estimate the causal relationship between the gut microbiome and CRC. We used summary-level data from independent genome-wide association studies to estimate the causal effect of 14 microbial traits (n = 3890 individuals) on overall CRC (55,168 cases, 65,160 controls) and site-specific CRC risk, conducting several sensitivity analyses to understand the nature of results. Initial MR analysis suggested that a higher abundance of Bifidobacterium and presence of an unclassified group of bacteria within the Bacteroidales order in the gut increased overall and site-specific CRC risk. However, sensitivity analyses suggested that instruments used to estimate relationships were likely complex and involved in many potential horizontal pleiotropic pathways, demonstrating that caution is needed when interpreting MR analyses with gut microbiome exposures. In assessing reverse causality, we did not find strong evidence that CRC causally affected these microbial traits. Whilst our study initially identified potential causal roles for two microbial traits in CRC, importantly, further exploration of these relationships highlighted that these were unlikely to reflect causality.

Combining Asian-European Genome-Wide Association Studies of Colorectal Cancer Improves Risk Prediction Across Race and Ethnicity.

Polygenic risk scores (PRS) have great potential to guide precision colorectal cancer (CRC) prevention by identifying those at higher risk to undertake targeted screening. However, current PRS using European ancestry data have sub-optimal performance in non-European ancestry populations, limiting their utility among these populations. Towards addressing this deficiency, we expanded PRS development for CRC by incorporating Asian ancestry data (21,731 cases; 47,444 controls) into European ancestry training datasets (78,473 cases; 107,143 controls). The AUC estimates (95% CI) of PRS were 0.63(0.62-0.64), 0.59(0.57-0.61), 0.62(0.60-0.63), and 0.65(0.63-0.66) in independent datasets including 1,681-3,651 cases and 8,696-115,105 controls of Asian, Black/African American, Latinx/Hispanic, and non-Hispanic White, respectively. They were significantly better than the European-centric PRS in all four major US racial and ethnic groups (p-values<0.05). Further inclusion of non-European ancestry populations, especially Black/African American and Latinx/Hispanic, is needed to improve the risk prediction and enhance equity in applying PRS in clinical practice.