Cost-effectiveness of DPYD Genotyping Prior to Fluoropyrimidine-based Adjuvant Chemotherapy for Colon Cancer.

BACKGROUND: Adjuvant fluoropyrimidine-based chemotherapy substantially reduces recurrence and mortality after resection of stage 3 colon cancer. While standard doses of 5-fluorouracil and capecitabine are safe for most patients, the risk of severe toxicity is increased for the approximately 6% of patients with dihydropyimidine dehydrogenase (DPD) deficiency caused by pathogenic DPYD gene variants. Pre-treatment screening for pathogenic DPYD gene variants reduces severe toxicity but has not been widely adopted in the United States. METHODS: We conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis of DPYD genotyping prior to fluoropyrimidine-based adjuvant chemotherapy for stage 3 colon cancer, covering the c.1129-5923C>G (HapB3), c.1679T>G (*13), c.1905+1G>A (*2A), and c.2846A>T gene variants. We used a Markov model with a 5-year horizon, taking a United States healthcare perspective. Simulated patients with pathogenic DPYD gene variants received reduced-dose fluoropyrimidine chemotherapy. The primary outcome was the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) for DPYD genotyping. RESULTS: Compared with no screening for DPD deficiency, DPYD genotyping increased per-patient costs by $78 and improved survival by 0.0038 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), leading to an ICER of $20,506/QALY. In 1-way sensitivity analyses, The ICER exceeded $50,000 per QALY when the cost of the DPYD genotyping assay was greater than $286. In probabilistic sensitivity analysis using a willingness-to-pay threshold of $50,000/QALY DPYD genotyping was preferred to no screening in 96.2% of iterations. CONCLUSION: Among patients receiving adjuvant chemotherapy for stage 3 colon cancer, screening for DPD deficiency with DPYD genotyping is a cost-effective strategy for preventing infrequent but severe and sometimes fatal toxicities of fluoropyrimidine chemotherapy.

Association of Second-Opinion Strategies in the Histopathologic Diagnosis of Cutaneous Melanocytic Lesions With Diagnostic Accuracy and Population-Level Costs.

IMPORTANCE: Diagnostic variation among pathologists interpreting cutaneous melanocytic lesions could lead to suboptimal care. OBJECTIVE: To estimate the potential association of second-opinion strategies in the histopathologic diagnosis of cutaneous melanocytic lesions with diagnostic accuracy and 1-year population-level costs in the US. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Decision analysis with 1-year time horizon including melanocytic lesion diagnoses available from US pathologists participating in the Melanoma Pathology Study (M-Path) and from the study panel of reference pathologists who classified cases using the MPATH-Dx classification tool. M-Path data collection occurred from July 2013 through March 2015; analyses for the present study were performed between April 2015 and January 2021. EXPOSURES: Various second-opinion strategies for interpretation of melanocytic cutaneous lesions. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Estimated accuracy of pathologists' diagnoses, defined as concordance with the reference panel diagnoses, and 1-year postbiopsy medical costs under various second-opinion strategies. Expected percentage of concordant diagnoses, including percentages of overinterpretation and underinterpretation, and 1-year costs of medical care per 100 000 in the US population. RESULTS: Decision-analytic model parameters were based on diagnostic interpretations for 240 cases by 187 pathologists compared with reference panel diagnoses. Without second opinions, 83.2% of diagnoses in the US were estimated to be accurate-ie, concordant with the reference diagnosis; with overinterpretation (8.0%) or underinterpretation (8.8%), and 16 850 misclassified diagnoses per 100 000 biopsies. Accuracy increased under all second-opinion strategies. Accuracy (87.4% concordance with 3.6% overinterpretation and 9.1% underinterpretation) and cost (an increase of more than $10 million per 100 000 biopsies per year) were highest when second opinions were universal (eg, performed on all biopsies), relative to no second opinions. A selective second-opinion strategy based on pathologists' desire or institutional requirements for a second opinion was most accurate (86.5% concordance; 4.4% overinterpretation; 9.1% underinterpretation) and would reduce costs by more than $1.9 million per 100 000 skin biopsies relative to no second opinions. Improvements in diagnostic accuracy with all second-opinion strategies were associated with reductions in overinterpretation but not underinterpretation. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In this decision-analytic model, selective second-opinion strategies for interpretation of melanocytic skin lesions showed the potential to improve diagnostic accuracy and decrease costs relative to no second opinions or universal second opinions.

The Cost-Effectiveness of Reverse Total Shoulder Arthroplasty Versus Open Reduction Internal Fixation for Proximal Humerus Fractures in the Elderly.

Background: Open reduction and internal fixation (ORIF) of proximal humerus fractures in elderly individuals (age >70) carries a relatively high short-term complication and reoperation rate but is generally durable once healed. Reverse total shoulder arthroplasty (RTSA) for fractures may be associated with superior short-term quality of life but carries the lifelong liabilities of joint replacement. The tradeoff between short and long-term risks, coupled with disparities in quality of life and cost, makes this clinical decision amenable to cost-effectiveness analysis. Methods: A Markov state-transition model was constructed with a base case of a 75 year-old patient. Reoperation rates, quality of life values, mortality rates, and costs were based upon published literature. The model was run until all patients had died to simulate the accumulated costs and benefits. Results: RTSA was associated with greater quality of life (7.11 QALYs) than ORIF (6.22 QALYs). RTSA was cost-effective with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $3,945/QALY and $27,299/ QALY from payor and hospital perspectives, respectively. RTSA was favored and cost-effective at any age above 65 and any Charlson Score. The model was sensitive to the utility of both procedures. Conclusion: RTSA resulted in a higher quality of life and was cost-effective in comparison to ORIF for elderly patients.Level of Evidence: III.

Pharmacologic Hemostatic Agents in Total Joint Arthroplasty-A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Total knee and hip arthroplasties can be associated with substantial blood loss, affecting morbidity and even mortality. Two pharmacological antifibrinolytics, ε-aminocaproic acid (EACA) and tranexamic acid (TXA) have been used to minimize perioperative blood loss, but both have associated morbidity. Given the added cost of these medications and the risks associated with then, a cost-effectiveness analysis was undertaken to ascertain the best strategy. METHODS: A cost-effectiveness model was constructed using the payoffs of cost (in United States dollars) and effectiveness (quality-adjusted life expectancy, in days). The medical literature was used to ascertain various complications, their probabilities, utility values, and direct medical costs associated with various health states. A time horizon of 10 years and a willingness to pay threshold of $100,000 was used. RESULTS: The total cost and effectiveness (quality-adjusted life expectancy, in days) was $459.77, $951.22, and $1174.87 and 3411.19, 3248.02, and 3342.69 for TXA, no pharmacologic hemostatic agent, and EACA, respectively. Because TXA is less expensive and more effective than the competing alternatives, it was the favored strategy. One-way sensitivity analyses for probability of transfusion and myocardial infarction for all 3 strategies revealed that TXA remains the dominant strategy across all clinically plausible values. CONCLUSION: TXA, when compared with no pharmacologic hemostatic agent and with EACA, is the most cost-effective strategy to minimize intraoperative blood loss in hip and knee total joint arthroplasties. These findings are robust to sensitivity analyses using clinically plausible probabilities.

Understanding the value of minimally invasive procedures for the treatment of lumbar spinal stenosis: the case of interspinous spacer devices.

BACKGROUND CONTEXT: Minimally invasive lumbar spinal stenosis procedures have uncertain long-term value. PURPOSE: This study sought to characterize factors affecting the long-term cost-effectiveness of such procedures using interspinous spacer devices ("spacers") relative to decompression surgery as a case study. STUDY DESIGN: Model-based cost-effectiveness analysis. PATIENT SAMPLE: The Medicare Provider Analysis and Review database for the years 2005-2009 was used to model a group of 65-year-old patients with spinal stenosis who had no previous spine surgery and no contraindications to decompression surgery. OUTCOME MEASURES: Costs, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and cost per QALY gained were the outcome measures. METHODS: A Markov model tracked health utility and costs over 10 years for a 65-year-old cohort under three care strategies: conservative care, spacer surgery, and decompression surgery. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER) reported as cost per QALY gained included direct medical costsfor surgery. Medicare claims data were used to estimate complication rates, reoperation, and related costs within 3 years. Utilities and long-term reoperation rates for decompression were derived frompublished studies. Spacer failure requiring reoperation beyond 3 years and post-spacer health utilities are uncertain and were evaluated through sensitivity analyses. In the base-case, the spacer failure rate was held constant for years 4-10 (cumulative failure: 47%). In a "worst-case" analysis, the 10-year cumulative reoperation rate was increased steeply (to 90%). Threshold analyses were performed to determine the impact of failure and post-spacer health utility on the cost-effectiveness of spacer surgery. RESULTS: The spacer strategy had an ICER of $89,500/QALY gained under base-case assumptions, and remained under $100,000 as long as the 10-year cumulative probability of reoperation did not exceed 54%. Under worst-case assumptions, the spacer ICER was $482,000/QALY and fell below $100,000 only if post-spacer utility was 0.01 greater than post-decompression utility or the cost of spacer surgery was $1,600 less than the cost of decompression surgery. CONCLUSIONS: Spacers may provide a reasonably cost-effective initial treatment option for patients with lumbar spinal stenosis. Their value is expected to improve if procedure costs are lower in outpatient settings where these procedures are increasingly being performed. Decision analysis is useful for characterizing the long-term cost-effectiveness potential for minimally invasive spinal stenosis treatments and highlights the importance of complication rates and prospective health utility assessment.

Surgery Versus Interferon Alpha-2b Treatment Strategies for Ocular Surface Squamous Neoplasia: A Literature-Based Decision Analysis.

PURPOSE: To compare treatment strategies for ocular surface squamous neoplasia (OSSN), ranging from surgical excision to empiric topical interferon alpha-2b (IFN-α2b). METHODS: A decision model was constructed to determine which of 4 treatment strategies minimized expected persistence/recurrence of disease in patients with OSSN: excision followed by repeat excision for positive surgical margins, excision followed by IFN-α2b for positive margins, incisional biopsy followed by IFN-α2b for positive biopsies, and empiric treatment with IFN-α2b. Probabilities were estimated from literature published between 1983 and 2015. Expected values for the probability of recurrence could range from 0 (no persistence/recurrence) to 1 (persistence/recurrence). Sensitivity analyses were performed for each variable. RESULTS: Excision followed by IFN-α2b for positive margins was estimated to minimize persistence/recurrence of OSSN (expected value 0.13 versus 0.17 for empiric IFN-α2b, 0.22 for excision-only, and 0.30 for incisional biopsy-directed IFN-α2b). The optimal strategy was sensitive to 3 variables: efficacy of IFN-α2b, recurrence after negative surgical margins, and accuracy of excisional biopsy. CONCLUSIONS: In our decision analysis using studies published between 1983 and 2015, surgical excision followed by IFN-α2b for positive margins is the favored strategy for minimizing persistence/recurrence of OSSN. Future prospective studies would add to the certainty of these conclusions.

Inferior vena cava filter retrieval provides no advantage in the average patient.

BACKGROUND: Inferior vena cava (IVC) filter placement is performed to mitigate the risk of pulmonary embolism (PE) when anticoagulation is contraindicated or ineffective. Technical advances now allow catheter-based filter retrieval. Many believe the benefits of retrieval are self-evident, yet retrieval carries an inherent complication risk and cost. The purpose of this study was to quantitatively weigh the risks and benefits of IVC filter retrieval using formal decision analysis. METHODS: A Markov state-transition model was used to simulate two clinical scenarios: to leave a previously placed IVC filter or to retrieve it. Analysis was performed during the lifetime of the individual, and outcomes were expressed in quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). The base case is a 60-year-old man with a filter placed within 3 months who no longer requires mechanical thromboprophylaxis. Potential events included PE, filter complications, and death from all other causes during each cycle. Tolls were used to incorporate the disutility of short-term treatment for PE and filter complications. For the base case and sensitivity analyses, we used utilities and probabilities derived from the literature. RESULTS: In the base case scenario, leaving the filter in place was preferred to filter retrieval, yielding 22.3 vs 21.9 QALYs. One-way sensitivity analysis demonstrated that filter retrieval may be preferable if the utility of living with a filter is <0.98. For all probabilities of retrieval and PE mortality, leaving the filter in place is preferred. CONCLUSIONS: Leaving a previously placed IVC filter provides a 0.4 QALY benefit over retrieving the filter for the average patient. This decision is sensitive to the utility of living with the IVC filter.

Treatment of asymptomatic hyperuricemia and prevention of vascular disease: a decision analytic approach.

OBJECTIVE: Elevated serum urate may be associated with an increase in cardiovascular (CV) disease. Treating asymptomatic hyperuricemia with urate-lowering drugs such as allopurinol may reduce CV events. We designed a model to simulate the effect of allopurinol treatment on reducing frequency of CV events in individuals with elevated serum urate. METHODS: A Markov state-transition model was constructed to assess occurrence of vascular events (VE) for 2 treatment strategies: treat all asymptomatic individuals with allopurinol (Treat All) and treat only if symptomatic (Treat Symptomatic). The model simulated a hypothetical cohort of 50-year-old men with different serum urate concentrations (6-6.9 and 7-7.9 mg/dl) followed over 20 years. Age and sex subgroups were analyzed. Model inputs were derived from current literature. The main outcome measures were mean number of VE and mean number of deaths from VE. RESULTS: For 50-year-old men with serum urate 6.0-6.9 mg/dl, individuals in the Treat All strategy have a 30% reduction in the mean number of VE compared to those in the Treat Symptomatic strategy (mean VE: 0.078 vs 0.11), and a 39% reduction in mean number of deaths from VE. At higher serum urate concentrations, treatment is more effective in reducing the mean number of VE and mean number of deaths from VE (38% event, 54% death). Results for women show similar trends. As the cohort ages, treatment has less effect on reducing VE. The number needed to treat to prevent 1 event is 20 (men, 7.0-7.9 mg/dl). CONCLUSION: The model predicts that treating asymptomatic hyperuricemia with allopurinol is most effective in preventing VE at a serum urate above 7.0 mg/dl in men and 5.0 mg/dl in women.