Case growth analysis to inform local response to COVID-19 epidemic in a diverse U.S community.

Early detection of new outbreak waves is critical for effective and sustained response to the COVID-19 pandemic. We conducted a growth rate analysis using local community and inpatient records from seven hospital systems to characterize distinct phases in SARS-CoV-2 outbreak waves in the Greater Houston area. We determined the transition times from rapid spread of infection in the community to surge in the number of inpatients in local hospitals. We identified 193,237 residents who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 via molecular testing from April 8, 2020 to June 30, 2021, and 30,031 residents admitted within local healthcare institutions with a positive SARS-CoV-2 test, including emergency cases. We detected two distinct COVID-19 waves: May 12, 2020-September 6, 2020 and September 27, 2020-May 15, 2021; each encompassed four growth phases: lagging, exponential/rapid growth, deceleration, and stationary/linear. Our findings showed that, during early stages of the pandemic, the surge in the number of daily cases in the community preceded that of inpatients admitted to local hospitals by 12-36 days. Rapid decline in hospitalized cases was an early indicator of transition to deceleration in the community. Our real-time analysis informed local pandemic response in one of the largest U.S. metropolitan areas, providing an operationalized framework to support robust real-world surveillance for outbreak preparedness.

Temporal trends in diagnoses of congenital microcephaly, Texas Hospital Discharge Diagnoses, 2000-2015.

OBJECTIVE: Assess temporal trends in congenital microcephaly. METHODS: We used Texas inpatient discharge diagnoses between 2000 and 2015, restricting to newborns. Between 2000 and 2003, the maximum number of fields for recording diagnostic codes was eight, and between 2004 and 2015 it was 24. Microcephaly was classified into four subgroups based on co-occurring diagnoses: A (Known Causes), B (Other Birth Defects), C (Preterm Birth or Fetal Growth Restriction) and D (Isolated Cases). RESULTS: We identified 2,301 cases of microcephaly or 4.0 cases per 10,000 live births. There was an increase in the prevalence of microcephaly in 2012-2015 compared with 2000-2003, odds ratio = 1.85 (95% CI 1.64-2.10) Significant temporal increases in microcephaly were observed within each of the four microcephaly subgroups and significant temporal increases were also observed for eight other neonatal diagnoses during the same time period. When we restricted our analysis to cases with microcephaly identified using only the eight diagnostic codes available throughout the entire study period, the temporal trend for microcephaly was diminished or absent. CONCLUSIONS: It remains uncertain whether the observed increases in microcephaly and other neonatal diagnoses are real or an artifact of the change in the number of fields. However, since it is unlikely that there would be a simultaneous increase in microcephaly and eight other neonatal diagnoses, it is likely that some or all of the temporal increases in neonatal diagnoses are artifactual.

EARLY ASSESSMENT AND PREDICTION OF POTENTIAL IMPACT OF THE IMPLANTATION OF POLYURETHANE SCAFFOLD IN PARTIAL MENISCAL LESIONS: A PILOT HORIZON SCANNING ACTIVITY IN SOUTH KOREA.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to predict the potential impact of the introduction of implantation of polyurethane scaffold for the treatment of partial meniscal lesions in the South Korean healthcare system. METHODS: The horizon scanning process was used to select a target technology and assess its potential impacts on patients and the Korean healthcare system. We identified and filtered research-phase health technologies that are not listed yet in Korean, but appear promising. After a process of prioritization, we chose the implantation of polyurethane scaffolds as a target technology. Then, through the procedures of assessment and peer review, we analyzed current evidence and its predicted potential impacts. RESULTS: There were eight studies included in the review: one prospective cohort and seven case-series studies. Six revealed significant improvements in function and pain relief. Of the six studies, which reported safety endpoints, four stated no major postoperative complications related to scaffold, and two reported adverse events and serious adverse events such as pain, joint swelling, et cetera. We also included the potential impact of this technology based on the experts' consultation. They all agreed that it would satisfy the diverse needs of patients and fulfill clinical needs. However, the majority of related clinical studies were based on short-term follow-up observations without any validation process involving comparison with control groups. CONCLUSIONS: Through a horizon scanning activity, we found that the implantation of polyurethane scaffolds is a promising technology to resolve articular cartilage defects; however, long-term evidence with comparison groups for safety and effectiveness is required.