Prediction models for post-discharge mortality among under-five children with suspected sepsis in Uganda: A multicohort analysis.

In many low-income countries, over five percent of hospitalized children die following hospital discharge. The lack of available tools to identify those at risk of post-discharge mortality has limited the ability to make progress towards improving outcomes. We aimed to develop algorithms designed to predict post-discharge mortality among children admitted with suspected sepsis. Four prospective cohort studies of children in two age groups (0-6 and 6-60 months) were conducted between 2012-2021 in six Ugandan hospitals. Prediction models were derived for six-months post-discharge mortality, based on candidate predictors collected at admission, each with a maximum of eight variables, and internally validated using 10-fold cross-validation. 8,810 children were enrolled: 470 (5.3%) died in hospital; 257 (7.7%) and 233 (4.8%) post-discharge deaths occurred in the 0-6-month and 6-60-month age groups, respectively. The primary models had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.77 (95%CI 0.74-0.80) for 0-6-month-olds and 0.75 (95%CI 0.72-0.79) for 6-60-month-olds; mean AUROCs among the 10 cross-validation folds were 0.75 and 0.73, respectively. Calibration across risk strata was good: Brier scores were 0.07 and 0.04, respectively. The most important variables included anthropometry and oxygen saturation. Additional variables included: illness duration, jaundice-age interaction, and a bulging fontanelle among 0-6-month-olds; and prior admissions, coma score, temperature, age-respiratory rate interaction, and HIV status among 6-60-month-olds. Simple prediction models at admission with suspected sepsis can identify children at risk of post-discharge mortality. Further external validation is recommended for different contexts. Models can be digitally integrated into existing processes to improve peri-discharge care as children transition from the hospital to the community.

Mortality after hospital discharge among children younger than 5 years admitted with suspected sepsis in Uganda: a prospective, multisite, observational cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Substantial mortality occurs after hospital discharge in children younger than 5 years with suspected sepsis, especially in low-income countries. A better understanding of its epidemiology is needed for effective interventions to reduce child mortality in these countries. We evaluated risk factors for death after discharge in children admitted to hospital for suspected sepsis in Uganda, and assessed how these differed by age, time of death, and location of death. METHODS: In this prospective, multisite, observational cohort study, we recruited and consecutively enrolled children aged 0-60 months admitted with suspected sepsis from the community to the paediatric wards of six Ugandan hospitals. Suspected sepsis was defined as the need for admission due to a suspected or proven infectious illness. At admission, trained study nurses systematically collected data on clinical variables, sociodemographic variables, and baseline characteristics with encrypted study tablets. Participants were followed up for 6 months after discharge by field officers who contacted caregivers at 2 months and 4 months after discharge by telephone and at 6 months after discharge in person to measure vital status, health-care seeking after discharge, and readmission details. We assessed 6-month mortality after hospital discharge among those discharged alive, with verbal autopsies conducted for children who had died after hospital discharge. FINDINGS: Between July 13, 2017, and March 30, 2020, 16 991 children were screened for eligibility. 6545 children (2927 [44·72%] female children and 3618 [55·28%] male children) were enrolled and 6191 were discharged from hospital alive. 6073 children (2687 [44·2%] female children and 3386 [55·8%] male children) completed follow-up. 366 children died in the 6-month period after discharge (weighted mortality rate 5·5%). Median time from discharge to death was 28 days (IQR 9-74). For the 360 children for whom location of death was documented, deaths occurred at home (162 [45·0%]), in transit to care (66 [18·3%]), or in hospital (132 [36·7%]) during a subsequent readmission. Death after hospital discharge was strongly associated with weight-for-age Z scores less than -3 (adjusted risk ratio [aRR] 4·7, 95% CI 3·7-5·8 vs a Z score of >-2), discharge or referral to a higher level of care (7·3, 5·6-9·5), and unplanned discharge (3·2, 2·5-4·0). Hazard ratios (HRs) for severe anaemia (<7g/dL) increased with time since discharge, from 1·7 (95% CI 0·9-3·0) for death occurring in the first time tertile to 5·2 (3·1-8·5) in the third time tertile. HRs for some discharge vulnerabilities decreased significantly with increasing time since discharge, including unplanned discharge (from 4.5 [2·9-6·9] in the first tertile to 2·0 [1·3-3·2] in the third tertile) and poor feeding status (from 7·7 [5·4-11·0] to 1·84 [1·0-3·3]). Age interacted with several variables, including reduced weight-for-age Z score, severe anaemia, and reduced admission temperature. INTERPRETATION: Paediatric mortality following hospital discharge after suspected sepsis is common, with diminishing, although persistent, risk during the first 6 months after discharge. Efforts to improve outcomes after hospital discharge are crucial to achieving Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 (ending preventable childhood deaths under age 5 years). FUNDING: Grand Challenges Canada, Thrasher Research Fund, BC Children's Hospital Foundation, and Mining4Life.

"If you have light, your heart will be at peace": A qualitative study of household lighting and social integration in southwestern Uganda.

Background: Expanding electrification and access to other clean and affordable energy, such as solar energy, is a critical component of the Sustainable Development Goals, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa where 70% of people are energy insecure. Intervention trials related to access or less polluting household energy alternatives have typically focused on air quality and biological outcomes rather than on how an intervention affects the end user's lived experiences, a key determinant of uptake and adoption outside of a research setting. We explored perceptions of and experiences with a household solar lighting intervention in rural Uganda. Methods: In 2019, we completed a one-year parallel group, randomized wait-list controlled trial of indoor solar lighting systems (ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03351504) in rural Uganda where participants are largely relying on kerosene and other fuel-based lighting received household indoor solar lighting systems. In this qualitative sub-study, we conducted one-on-one, in-depth qualitative interviews with all 80 female participants enrolled in the trial. Interviews explored how solar lighting and illumination impacted participants' lives. We applied a theoretical model linking social integration and health to analyse dynamic interactions across aspects of study participants' lived experiences. Sensors were used to measure daily lighting use before and after receipt of the intervention solar lighting system. Results: Introduction of the solar lighting system increased daily household lighting use by 6.02 (95% confidence intervals (CI) = 4.05-8.00) hours a day. The solar lighting intervention had far-reaching social implications with improved social integration and, consequently, social health. Participants felt that lighting improved their social status, mitigated the stigma of poverty, and increased the duration and frequency of social interactions. Household relationships improved with access to lighting because of reduced conflicts over light rationing. Participants also described a communal benefit of lighting due to improved feelings of safety. At the individual-level, many reported improved self-esteem, sense of well-being, and reduced stress. Conclusion: Improved access to lighting and illumination had far reaching implications for participants, including improved social integration. More empirical research, particularly in the light and household energy field, is needed that emphasizes the impacts of interventions on social health. Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov No. NCT03351504.

Use, cost-effectiveness, and end user perspectives of a home solar lighting intervention in rural Uganda: a mixed methods, randomized controlled trial.

Energy poverty is prevalent in resource-limited settings, leading households to use inefficient fuels and appliances that contribute to household air pollution. Randomized controlled trials of household energy interventions in low and middle income countries have largely focused on cooking services. Less is known about the adoption and impact of clean lighting interventions. We conducted an explanatory sequential mixed methods study as part of a randomized controlled trial of home solar lighting systems in rural Uganda in order to identify contextual factors determining the use and impact of the solar lighting intervention. We used sensors to track usage, longitudinally assessed household lighting expenditures and health-related quality of life, and performed cost-effectiveness analyses. Qualitative interviews were conducted with all 80 trial participants and coded using reflexive thematic analysis. Uptake of the intervention solar lighting system was high with daily use averaging 8.23 ± 5.30 hours per day. The intervention solar lighting system increased the EQ5D index by 0.025 [95% CI 0.002 - 0.048] and led to an average monthly reduction in household lighting costs by -1.28 [-2.52, -0.85] US dollars, with higher savings in users of fuel-based lighting. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for the solar lighting intervention was $2025.72 US dollars per quality adjusted life year (QALY) gained making the intervention cost-effective when benchmarked against the gross domestic product (GDP) per capita in Uganda. Thematic analysis of qualitative data from individual interviews showed that solar lighting was transformative and associated with numerous benefits that fit within a Social Determinants of Health (SDOH) framework. The benefits included improved household finances, improved educational performance of children, increased household safety, improved family and community cohesion, and improved perceived household health. Our findings suggest that household solar lighting interventions may be a cost-effective approach to improve health-related quality of life by addressing SDOH.

Effect of a solar lighting intervention on fuel-based lighting use and exposure to household air pollution in rural Uganda: A randomized controlled trial.

Solar lighting is an alternative to polluting kerosene and other fuel-based lighting devices relied upon by millions of families in resource-limited settings. Whether solar lighting provides sustained displacement of fuel-based lighting sources and reductions in personal exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2 .5 ) and black carbon (BC) has not been examined in randomized controlled trials. Eighty adult women living in rural Uganda who utilized fuel-based (candles and kerosene lamps) and/or clean (solar, grid, and battery-powered devices) lighting were randomized in a 1:1 ratio to receive a home solar lighting system at no cost to study participants (ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03351504). Among intervention group participants, kerosene lamps were completely displaced in 92% of households using them. The intervention led to an average exposure reduction of 36.1 µg/m3 (95% CI -70.3 to -2.0) in PM2 .5 and 10.8 µg/m3 (95% CI -17.6 to -4.1) in BC, corresponding to a reduction from baseline of 37% and 91%, respectively. Reductions were greatest among participants using kerosene lamps. Displacement of kerosene lamps and personal exposure reductions were sustained over 12 months of follow-up. Solar lighting presents an immediate opportunity for achieving sustained reductions in personal exposure to PM2.5 and BC and should be considered in household air pollution intervention packages.