Statistical sampling of missing environmental variables improves biophysical genomic prediction in wheat.

KEY MESSAGE: The integration of genomic prediction with crop growth models enabled the estimation of missing environmental variables which improved the prediction accuracy of grain yield. Since the invention of whole-genome prediction (WGP) more than two decades ago, breeding programmes have established extensive reference populations that are cultivated under diverse environmental conditions. The introduction of the CGM-WGP model, which integrates crop growth models (CGM) with WGP, has expanded the applications of WGP to the prediction of unphenotyped traits in untested environments, including future climates. However, CGMs require multiple seasonal environmental records, unlike WGP, which makes CGM-WGP less accurate when applied to historical reference populations that lack crucial environmental inputs. Here, we investigated the ability of CGM-WGP to approximate missing environmental variables to improve prediction accuracy. Two environmental variables in a wheat CGM, initial soil water content (InitlSoilWCont) and initial nitrate profile, were sampled from different normal distributions separately or jointly in each iteration within the CGM-WGP algorithm. Our results showed that sampling InitlSoilWCont alone gave the best results and improved the prediction accuracy of grain number by 0.07, yield by 0.06 and protein content by 0.03. When using the sampled InitlSoilWCont values as an input for the traditional CGM, the average narrow-sense heritability of the genotype-specific parameters (GSPs) improved by 0.05, with GNSlope, PreAnthRes, and VernSen showing the greatest improvements. Moreover, the root mean square of errors for grain number and yield was reduced by about 7% for CGM and 31% for CGM-WGP when using the sampled InitlSoilWCont values. Our results demonstrate the advantage of sampling missing environmental variables in CGM-WGP to improve prediction accuracy and increase the size of the reference population by enabling the utilisation of historical data that are missing environmental records.

Integrating biophysical crop growth models and whole genome prediction for their mutual benefit: a case study in wheat phenology.

Running crop growth models (CGM) coupled with whole genome prediction (WGP) as a CGM-WGP model introduces environmental information to WGP and genomic relatedness information to the genotype-specific parameters modelled through CGMs. Previous studies have primarily used CGM-WGP to infer prediction accuracy without exploring its potential to enhance CGM and WGP. Here, we implemented a heading and maturity date wheat phenology model within a CGM-WGP framework and compared it with CGM and WGP. The CGM-WGP resulted in more heritable genotype-specific parameters with more biologically realistic correlation structures between genotype-specific parameters and phenology traits compared with CGM-modelled genotype-specific parameters that reflected the correlation of measured phenotypes. Another advantage of CGM-WGP is the ability to infer accurate prediction with much smaller and less diverse reference data compared with that required for CGM. A genome-wide association analysis linked the genotype-specific parameters from the CGM-WGP model to nine significant phenology loci including Vrn-A1 and the three PPD1 genes, which were not detected for CGM-modelled genotype-specific parameters. Selection on genotype-specific parameters could be simpler than on observed phenotypes. For example, thermal time traits are theoretically more independent candidates, compared with the highly correlated heading and maturity dates, which could be used to achieve an environment-specific optimal flowering period. CGM-WGP combines the advantages of CGM and WGP to predict more accurate phenotypes for new genotypes under alternative or future environmental conditions.

Using genomic prediction with crop growth models enables the prediction of associated traits in wheat.

Crop growth models (CGM) can predict the performance of a cultivar in untested environments by sampling genotype-specific parameters. As they cannot predict the performance of new cultivars, it has been proposed to integrate CGMs with whole genome prediction (WGP) to combine the benefits of both models. Here, we used a CGM-WGP model to predict the performance of new wheat (Triticum aestivum) genotypes. The CGM was designed to predict phenology, nitrogen, and biomass traits. The CGM-WGP model simulated more heritable GSPs compared with the CGM and gave smaller errors for the observed phenotypes. The WGP model performed better when predicting yield, grain number, and grain protein content, but showed comparable performance to the CGM-WGP model for heading and physiological maturity dates. However, the CGM-WGP model was able to predict unobserved traits (for which there were no phenotypic records in the reference population). The CGM-WGP model also showed superior performance when predicting unrelated individuals that clustered separately from the reference population. Our results demonstrate new advantages for CGM-WGP modelling and suggest future efforts should focus on calibrating CGM-WGP models using high-throughput phenotypic measures that are cheaper and less laborious to collect.

Can we harness digital technologies and physiology to hasten genetic gain in US maize breeding?

Plant physiology can offer invaluable insights to accelerate genetic gain. However, translating physiological understanding into breeding decisions has been an ongoing and complex endeavor. Here we demonstrate an approach to leverage physiology and genomics to hasten crop improvement. A half-diallel maize (Zea mays) experiment resulting from crossing 9 elite inbreds was conducted at 17 locations in the USA corn belt and 6 locations at managed stress environments between 2017 and 2019 covering a range of water environments from 377 to 760 mm of evapotranspiration and family mean yields from 542 to 1,874 g m-2. Results from analyses of 35 families and 2,367 hybrids using crop growth models linked to whole-genome prediction (CGM-WGP) demonstrated that CGM-WGP offered a predictive accuracy advantage compared to BayesA for untested genotypes evaluated in untested environments (r = 0.43 versus r = 0.27). In contrast to WGP, CGMs can deal effectively with time-dependent interactions between a physiological process and the environment. To facilitate the selection/identification of traits for modeling yield, an algorithmic approach was introduced. The method was able to identify 4 out of 12 candidate traits known to explain yield variation in maize. The estimation of allelic and physiological values for each genotype using the CGM created in silico phenotypes (e.g. root elongation) and physiological hypotheses that could be tested within the breeding program in an iterative manner. Overall, the approach and results suggest a promising future to fully harness digital technologies, gap analysis, and physiological knowledge to hasten genetic gain by improving predictive skill and definition of breeding goals.

Back to the future: implications of genetic complexity for the structure of hybrid breeding programs.

Commercial hybrid breeding operations can be described as decentralized networks of smaller, more or less isolated breeding programs. There is further a tendency for the disproportionate use of successful inbred lines for generating the next generation of recombinants, which has led to a series of significant bottlenecks, particularly in the history of the North American and European maize germplasm. Both the decentralization and the disproportionate contribution of inbred lines reduce effective population size and constrain the accessible genetic space. Under these conditions, long-term response to selection is not expected to be optimal under the classical infinitesimal model of quantitative genetics. In this study, we therefore aim to propose a rationale for the success of large breeding operations in the context of genetic complexity arising from the structure and properties of interactive genetic networks. For this, we use simulations based on the NK model of genetic architecture. We indeed found that constraining genetic space through program decentralization and disproportionate contribution of parental inbred lines, is required to expose additive genetic variation and thus facilitate heritable genetic gains under high levels of genetic complexity. These results introduce new insights into why the historically grown structure of hybrid breeding programs was successful in improving the yield potential of hybrid crops over the last century. We also hope that a renewed appreciation for "why things worked" in the past can guide the adoption of novel technologies and the design of future breeding strategies for navigating biological complexity.

Use of F2 Bulks in Training Sets for Genomic Prediction of Combining Ability and Hybrid Performance.

Developing training sets for genomic prediction in hybrid crops requires producing hybrid seed for a large number of entries. In autogamous crop species (e.g., wheat, rice, rapeseed, cotton) this requires elaborate hybridization systems to prevent self-pollination and presents a significant impediment to the implementation of hybrid breeding in general and genomic selection in particular. An alternative to F1 hybrids are bulks of F2 seed from selfed F1 plants (F1:2). Seed production for F1:2 bulks requires no hybridization system because the number of F1 plants needed for producing enough F1:2 seed for multi-environment testing can be generated by hand-pollination. This study evaluated the suitability of F1:2 bulks for use in training sets for genomic prediction of F1 level general combining ability and hybrid performance, under different degrees of divergence between heterotic groups and modes of gene action, using quantitative genetic theory and simulation of a genomic prediction experiment. The simulation, backed by theory, showed that F1:2 training sets are expected to have a lower prediction accuracy relative to F1 training sets, particularly when heterotic groups have strongly diverged. The accuracy penalty, however, was only modest and mostly because of a lower heritability, rather than because of a difference in F1 and F1:2 genetic values. It is concluded that resorting to F1:2 bulks is, in theory at least, a promising approach to remove the significant complication of a hybridization system from the breeding process.

Parent-progeny imputation from pooled samples for cost-efficient genotyping in plant breeding.

The increased usage of whole-genome selection (WGS) and other molecular evaluation methods in plant breeding relies on the ability to genotype a very large number of untested individuals in each breeding cycle. Many plant breeding programs evaluate large biparental populations of homozygous individuals derived from homozygous parent inbred lines. This structure lends itself to parent-progeny imputation, which transfers the genotype scores of the parents to progeny individuals that are genotyped for a much smaller number of loci. Here we introduce a parent-progeny imputation method that infers individual genotypes from non-barcoded pooled samples of DNA of multiple individuals using a Hidden Markov Model (HMM). We demonstrate the method for pools of simulated maize double haploids (DH) from biparental populations, genotyped using a genotyping by sequencing (GBS) approach for 3,000 loci at 0.125x to 4x coverage. We observed high concordance between true and imputed marker scores and the HMM produced well-calibrated genotype probabilities that correctly reflected the uncertainty of the imputed scores. Genomic estimated breeding values (GEBV) calculated from the imputed scores closely matched GEBV calculated from the true marker scores. The within-population correlation between these sets of GEBV approached 0.95 at 1x and 4x coverage when pooling two or four individuals, respectively. Our approach can reduce the genotyping cost per individual by a factor up to the number of pooled individuals in GBS applications without the need for extra sequencing coverage, thereby enabling cost-effective large scale genotyping for applications such as WGS in plant breeding.

Accuracy of Genomic Prediction in Synthetic Populations Depending on the Number of Parents, Relatedness, and Ancestral Linkage Disequilibrium.

Synthetics play an important role in quantitative genetic research and plant breeding, but few studies have investigated the application of genomic prediction (GP) to these populations. Synthetics are generated by intermating a small number of parents ([Formula: see text] and thereby possess unique genetic properties, which make them especially suited for systematic investigations of factors contributing to the accuracy of GP. We generated synthetics in silico from [Formula: see text]2 to 32 maize (Zea mays L.) lines taken from an ancestral population with either short- or long-range linkage disequilibrium (LD). In eight scenarios differing in relatedness of the training and prediction sets and in the types of data used to calculate the relationship matrix (QTL, SNPs, tag markers, and pedigree), we investigated the prediction accuracy (PA) of Genomic best linear unbiased prediction (GBLUP) and analyzed contributions from pedigree relationships captured by SNP markers, as well as from cosegregation and ancestral LD between QTL and SNPs. The effects of training set size [Formula: see text] and marker density were also studied. Sampling few parents ([Formula: see text]) generates substantial sample LD that carries over into synthetics through cosegregation of alleles at linked loci. For fixed [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text] influences PA most strongly. If the training and prediction set are related, using [Formula: see text] parents yields high PA regardless of ancestral LD because SNPs capture pedigree relationships and Mendelian sampling through cosegregation. As [Formula: see text] increases, ancestral LD contributes more information, while other factors contribute less due to lower frequencies of closely related individuals. For unrelated prediction sets, only ancestral LD contributes information and accuracies were poor and highly variable for [Formula: see text] due to large sample LD. For large [Formula: see text], achieving moderate accuracy requires large [Formula: see text], long-range ancestral LD, and high marker density. Our approach for analyzing PA in synthetics provides new insights into the prospects of GP for many types of source populations encountered in plant breeding.

Integrating Crop Growth Models with Whole Genome Prediction through Approximate Bayesian Computation.

Genomic selection, enabled by whole genome prediction (WGP) methods, is revolutionizing plant breeding. Existing WGP methods have been shown to deliver accurate predictions in the most common settings, such as prediction of across environment performance for traits with additive gene effects. However, prediction of traits with non-additive gene effects and prediction of genotype by environment interaction (G×E), continues to be challenging. Previous attempts to increase prediction accuracy for these particularly difficult tasks employed prediction methods that are purely statistical in nature. Augmenting the statistical methods with biological knowledge has been largely overlooked thus far. Crop growth models (CGMs) attempt to represent the impact of functional relationships between plant physiology and the environment in the formation of yield and similar output traits of interest. Thus, they can explain the impact of G×E and certain types of non-additive gene effects on the expressed phenotype. Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC), a novel and powerful computational procedure, allows the incorporation of CGMs directly into the estimation of whole genome marker effects in WGP. Here we provide a proof of concept study for this novel approach and demonstrate its use with synthetic data sets. We show that this novel approach can be considerably more accurate than the benchmark WGP method GBLUP in predicting performance in environments represented in the estimation set as well as in previously unobserved environments for traits determined by non-additive gene effects. We conclude that this proof of concept demonstrates that using ABC for incorporating biological knowledge in the form of CGMs into WGP is a very promising and novel approach to improving prediction accuracy for some of the most challenging scenarios in plant breeding and applied genetics.

Using Bayesian Multilevel Whole Genome Regression Models for Partial Pooling of Training Sets in Genomic Prediction.

Training set size is an important determinant of genomic prediction accuracy. Plant breeding programs are characterized by a high degree of structuring, particularly into populations. This hampers the establishment of large training sets for each population. Pooling populations increases training set size but ignores unique genetic characteristics of each. A possible solution is partial pooling with multilevel models, which allows estimating population-specific marker effects while still leveraging information across populations. We developed a Bayesian multilevel whole-genome regression model and compared its performance with that of the popular BayesA model applied to each population separately (no pooling) and to the joined data set (complete pooling). As an example, we analyzed a wide array of traits from the nested association mapping maize population. There we show that for small population sizes (e.g., <50), partial pooling increased prediction accuracy over no or complete pooling for populations represented in the training set. No pooling was superior; however, when populations were large. In another example data set of interconnected biparental maize populations either partial or complete pooling was superior, depending on the trait. A simulation showed that no pooling is superior when differences in genetic effects among populations are large and partial pooling when they are intermediate. With small differences, partial and complete pooling achieved equally high accuracy. For prediction of new populations, partial and complete pooling had very similar accuracy in all cases. We conclude that partial pooling with multilevel models can maximize the potential of pooling by making optimal use of information in pooled training sets.

Shrinkage estimation of the genomic relationship matrix can improve genomic estimated breeding values in the training set.

KEY MESSAGE: We evaluated several methods for computing shrinkage estimates of the genomic relationship matrix and demonstrated their potential to enhance the reliability of genomic estimated breeding values of training set individuals. In genomic prediction in plant breeding, the training set constitutes a large fraction of the total number of genotypes assayed and is itself subject to selection. The objective of our study was to investigate whether genomic estimated breeding values (GEBVs) of individuals in the training set can be enhanced by shrinkage estimation of the genomic relationship matrix. We simulated two different population types: a diversity panel of unrelated individuals and a biparental family of doubled haploid lines. For different training set sizes (50, 100, 200), number of markers (50, 100, 200, 500, 2,500) and heritabilities (0.25, 0.5, 0.75), shrinkage coefficients were computed by four different methods. Two of these methods are novel and based on measures of LD, the other two were previously described in the literature, one of which was extended by us. Our results showed that shrinkage estimation of the genomic relationship matrix can significantly improve the reliability of the GEBVs of training set individuals, especially for a low number of markers. We demonstrate that the number of markers is the primary determinant of the optimum shrinkage coefficient maximizing the reliability and we recommend methods eligible for routine usage in practical applications.

Genome properties and prospects of genomic prediction of hybrid performance in a breeding program of maize.

Maize (Zea mays L.) serves as model plant for heterosis research and is the crop where hybrid breeding was pioneered. We analyzed genomic and phenotypic data of 1254 hybrids of a typical maize hybrid breeding program based on the important Dent × Flint heterotic pattern. Our main objectives were to investigate genome properties of the parental lines (e.g., allele frequencies, linkage disequilibrium, and phases) and examine the prospects of genomic prediction of hybrid performance. We found high consistency of linkage phases and large differences in allele frequencies between the Dent and Flint heterotic groups in pericentromeric regions. These results can be explained by the Hill-Robertson effect and support the hypothesis of differential fixation of alleles due to pseudo-overdominance in these regions. In pericentromeric regions we also found indications for consistent marker-QTL linkage between heterotic groups. With prediction methods GBLUP and BayesB, the cross-validation prediction accuracy ranged from 0.75 to 0.92 for grain yield and from 0.59 to 0.95 for grain moisture. The prediction accuracy of untested hybrids was highest, if both parents were parents of other hybrids in the training set, and lowest, if none of them were involved in any training set hybrid. Optimizing the composition of the training set in terms of number of lines and hybrids per line could further increase prediction accuracy. We conclude that genomic prediction facilitates a paradigm shift in hybrid breeding by focusing on the performance of experimental hybrids rather than the performance of parental lines in test crosses.

Rapid and accurate identification of in vivo-induced haploid seeds based on oil content in maize.

The needs of a growing human population require rapid and efficient development of improved cultivars by plant breeders. The doubled haploid (DH) technology enables generating completely homozygous lines in a single step and, thus, is central to modern genetics and breeding approaches. Rapid and reliable identification of seeds with a haploid embryo after in vivo haploid induction is elementary in the method utilized in maize but current systems have severe shortcomings preventing their use in many germplasm types. Here, we describe an alternative method for discrimination of haploid from diploid seeds based on differences in their oil content stemming from pollination with high oil inducers. After presenting some fundamental theory, we provide a proof-of-concept with experimental results, demonstrating acceptable error rates across different germplasm. Our approach represents a breakthrough in DH technology in maize, because it is amenable to automated high-throughput screening and applicable to any maize germplasm worldwide.

QTL mapping of stalk bending strength in a recombinant inbred line maize population.

Stalk bending strength (SBS) is a reliable indicator for evaluating stalk lodging resistance of maize plants. Based on biomechanical considerations, the maximum load exerted to breaking (F max), the breaking moment (M max) and critical stress (σ max) are three important parameters to characterize SBS. We investigated the genetic architecture of SBS by phenotyping F max, M max and σ max of the fourth internode of maize plants in a population of 216 recombinant inbred lines derived from the cross B73 × Ce03005 evaluated in four environments. Heritability of F max, M max and σ max was 0.81, 0.79 and 0.75, respectively. F max and σ max were positively correlated with several other stalk characters. By using a linkage map with 129 SSR markers, we detected two, three and two quantitative trait loci (QTL) explaining 22.4, 26.1 and 17.2 % of the genotypic variance for F max, M max and σ max, respectively. The QTL for F max, M max and σ max located in adjacent bins 5.02 and 5.03 as well as in bin 10.04 for F max were detected with high frequencies in cross-validation. As our QTL mapping results suggested a complex polygenic inheritance for SBS-related traits, we also evaluated the prediction accuracy of two genomic prediction methods (GBLUP and BayesB). In general, we found that both explained considerably higher proportions of the genetic variance than the values obtained in QTL mapping with cross-validation. Nevertheless, the identified QTL regions could be used as a starting point for fine mapping and gene cloning.

Genomic prediction of northern corn leaf blight resistance in maize with combined or separated training sets for heterotic groups.

Northern corn leaf blight (NCLB), a severe fungal disease causing yield losses worldwide, is most effectively controlled by resistant varieties. Genomic prediction could greatly aid resistance breeding efforts. However, the development of accurate prediction models requires large training sets of genotyped and phenotyped individuals. Maize hybrid breeding is based on distinct heterotic groups that maximize heterosis (the dent and flint groups in Central Europe). The resulting allocation of resources to parallel breeding programs challenges the establishment of sufficiently sized training sets within groups. Therefore, using training sets combining both heterotic groups might be a possibility of increasing training set sizes and thereby prediction accuracies. The objectives of our study were to assess the prospect of genomic prediction of NCLB resistance in maize and the benefit of a training set that combines two heterotic groups. Our data comprised 100 dent and 97 flint lines, phenotyped for NCLB resistance per se and genotyped with high-density single-nucleotide polymorphism marker data. A genomic BLUP model was used to predict genotypic values. Prediction accuracies reached a maximum of 0.706 (dent) and 0.690 (flint), and there was a strong positive response to increases in training set size. The use of combined training sets led to significantly greater prediction accuracies for both heterotic groups. Our results encourage the application of genomic prediction in NCLB-resistance breeding programs and the use of combined training sets.

Genomic prediction of dichotomous traits with Bayesian logistic models.

Bayesian methods are a popular choice for genomic prediction of genotypic values. The methodology is well established for traits with approximately Gaussian phenotypic distribution. However, numerous important traits are of dichotomous nature and the phenotypic counts observed follow a Binomial distribution. The standard Gaussian generalized linear models (GLM) are not statistically valid for this type of data. Therefore, we implemented Binomial GLM with logit link function for the BayesB and Bayesian GBLUP genomic prediction methods. We compared these models with their standard Gaussian counterparts using two experimental data sets from plant breeding, one on female fertility in wheat and one on haploid induction in maize, as well as a simulated data set. With the aid of the simulated data referring to a bi-parental population of doubled haploid lines, we further investigated the influence of training set size (N), number of independent Bernoulli trials for trait evaluation (n i ) and genetic architecture of the trait on genomic prediction accuracies and abilities in general and on the relative performance of our models. For BayesB, we in addition implemented finite mixture Binomial GLM to account for overdispersion. We found that prediction accuracies increased with increasing N and n i . For the simulated and experimental data sets, we found Binomial GLM to be superior to Gaussian models for small n i , but that for large n i Gaussian models might be used as ad hoc approximations. We further show with simulated and real data sets that accounting for overdispersion in Binomial data can markedly increase the prediction accuracy.

Effectiveness of genomic prediction of maize hybrid performance in different breeding populations and environments.

Genomic prediction is expected to considerably increase genetic gains by increasing selection intensity and accelerating the breeding cycle. In this study, marker effects estimated in 255 diverse maize (Zea mays L.) hybrids were used to predict grain yield, anthesis date, and anthesis-silking interval within the diversity panel and testcross progenies of 30 F(2)-derived lines from each of five populations. Although up to 25% of the genetic variance could be explained by cross validation within the diversity panel, the prediction of testcross performance of F(2)-derived lines using marker effects estimated in the diversity panel was on average zero. Hybrids in the diversity panel could be grouped into eight breeding populations differing in mean performance. When performance was predicted separately for each breeding population on the basis of marker effects estimated in the other populations, predictive ability was low (i.e., 0.12 for grain yield). These results suggest that prediction resulted mostly from differences in mean performance of the breeding populations and less from the relationship between the training and validation sets or linkage disequilibrium with causal variants underlying the predicted traits. Potential uses for genomic prediction in maize hybrid breeding are discussed emphasizing the need of (1) a clear definition of the breeding scenario in which genomic prediction should be applied (i.e., prediction among or within populations), (2) a detailed analysis of the population structure before performing cross validation, and (3) larger training sets with strong genetic relationship to the validation set.

Comparison of whole-genome prediction models for traits with contrasting genetic architecture in a diversity panel of maize inbred lines.

BACKGROUND: There is increasing empirical evidence that whole-genome prediction (WGP) is a powerful tool for predicting line and hybrid performance in maize. However, there is a lack of knowledge about the sensitivity of WGP models towards the genetic architecture of the trait. Whereas previous studies exclusively focused on highly polygenic traits, important agronomic traits such as disease resistances, nutrifunctional or climate adaptational traits have a genetic architecture which is either much less complex or unknown. For such cases, information about model robustness and guidelines for model selection are lacking. Here, we compared five WGP models with different assumptions about the distribution of the underlying genetic effects. As contrasting model traits, we chose three highly polygenic agronomic traits and three metabolites each with a major QTL explaining 22 to 30% of the genetic variance in a panel of 289 diverse maize inbred lines genotyped with 56,110 SNPs. RESULTS: We found the five WGP models to be remarkable robust towards trait architecture with the largest differences in prediction accuracies ranging between 0.05 and 0.14 for the same trait, most likely as the result of the high level of linkage disequilibrium prevailing in elite maize germplasm. Whereas RR-BLUP performed best for the agronomic traits, it was inferior to LASSO or elastic net for the three metabolites. We found the approach of genome partitioning of genetic variance, first applied in human genetics, as useful in guiding the breeder which model to choose, if prior knowledge of the trait architecture is lacking. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that in diverse germplasm of elite maize inbred lines with a high level of LD, WGP models differ only slightly in their accuracies, irrespective of the number and effects of QTL found in previous linkage or association mapping studies. However, small gains in prediction accuracies can be achieved if the WGP model is selected according to the genetic architecture of the trait. If the trait architecture is unknown e.g. for novel traits which only recently received attention in breeding, we suggest to inspect the distribution of the genetic variance explained by each chromosome for guiding model selection in WGP.

Genomic prediction of hybrid performance in maize with models incorporating dominance and population specific marker effects.

Identifying high performing hybrids is an essential part of every maize breeding program. Genomic prediction of maize hybrid performance allows to identify promising hybrids, when they themselves or other hybrids produced from their parents were not tested in field trials. Using simulations, we investigated the effects of marker density (10, 1, 0.3 marker per mega base pair, Mbp(-1)), convergent or divergent parental populations, number of parents tested in other combinations (2, 1, 0), genetic model (including population-specific and/or dominance marker effects or not), and estimation method (GBLUP or BayesB) on the prediction accuracy. We based our simulations on marker genotypes of Central European flint and dent inbred lines from an ongoing maize breeding program. To simulate convergent or divergent parent populations, we generated phenotypes by assigning QTL to markers with similar or very different allele frequencies in both pools, respectively. Prediction accuracies increased with marker density and number of parents tested and were higher under divergent compared with convergent parental populations. Modeling marker effects as population-specific slightly improved prediction accuracy under lower marker densities (1 and 0.3 Mbp(-1)). This indicated that modeling marker effects as population-specific will be most beneficial under low linkage disequilibrium. Incorporating dominance effects improved prediction accuracies considerably for convergent parent populations, where dominance results in major contributions of SCA effects to the genetic variance among inter-population hybrids. While the general trends regarding the effects of the aforementioned influence factors on prediction accuracy were similar for GBLUP and BayesB, the latter method produced significantly higher accuracies for models incorporating dominance.

Genomic and metabolic prediction of complex heterotic traits in hybrid maize.

Maize is both an exciting model organism in plant genetics and also the most important crop worldwide for food, animal feed and bioenergy production. Recent genome-wide association and metabolic profiling studies aimed to resolve quantitative traits to their causal genetic loci and key metabolic regulators. Here we present a complementary approach that exploits large-scale genomic and metabolic information to predict complex, highly polygenic traits in hybrid testcrosses. We crossed 285 diverse Dent inbred lines from worldwide sources with two testers and predicted their combining abilities for seven biomass- and bioenergy-related traits using 56,110 SNPs and 130 metabolites. Whole-genome and metabolic prediction models were built by fitting effects for all SNPs or metabolites. Prediction accuracies ranged from 0.72 to 0.81 for SNPs and from 0.60 to 0.80 for metabolites, allowing a reliable screening of large collections of diverse inbred lines for their potential to create superior hybrids.