Clinical characteristics and outcomes of COVID-19 in a low-prevalence, well resourced setting, Sydney, Australia.

BACKGROUND: The Northern Sydney Local Health District was one of the first health regions to be affected by COVID-19 in Australia. AIMS: To describe the clinical characteristics, risk factors and outcomes in our low-prevalence Australian population. METHODS: This is a retrospective analysis of 517 laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases between January and June 2020. Patient information was collected as part of routine care within the COVID-19 Virtual Hospital system. Outcomes examined were death, recovery at 30 days and intensive care unit (ICU) admission. RESULTS: The case fatality rate was 1.8%. Multivariate analysis showed factors independently associated with death, composite outcome of death/ICU admission or incomplete recovery at 30 days were age >80 years and presence of two or more comorbidities. Most cases acquired COVID-19 through international (50.9%) or cruise ship travel (9.1%). Healthcare workers comprised 12.8% of the cohort and represented a disproportionately high percentage of the 'unknown' source group (27.6%). The median incubation period was 5 days (interquartile range 3-8); one patient had an incubation period of 15 days. Hospitalisation was required in 11.8%, ICU admission in 2.1% and ventilation in 1.4%. A Radiographic Assessment of Lung Oedema score on chest X-ray of >10 was independently associated with death. CONCLUSIONS: In this low prevalence, well resourced Australian setting, we report an overall low mortality. Factors associated with adverse patient outcomes on multivariate analysis were age greater than 80 and the presence of two or more comorbidities. These data can assist in early risk stratification of COVID-19 patients, and in surge capacity planning for hospitals.

Repurposing existing medications for coronavirus disease 2019: protocol for a rapid and living systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has no confirmed specific treatments. However, there might be in vitro and early clinical data as well as evidence from severe acute respiratory syndrome and Middle Eastern respiratory syndrome that could inform clinicians and researchers. This systematic review aims to create priorities for future research of drugs repurposed for COVID-19. METHODS: This systematic review will include in vitro, animal, and clinical studies evaluating the efficacy of a list of 34 specific compounds and 4 groups of drugs identified in a previous scoping review. Studies will be identified both from traditional literature databases and pre-print servers. Outcomes assessed will include time to clinical improvement, time to viral clearance, mortality, length of hospital stay, and proportions transferred to the intensive care unit and intubated, respectively. We will use the GRADE methodology to assess the quality of the evidence. DISCUSSION: The challenge posed by COVID-19 requires not just a rapid review of drugs that can be repurposed but also a sustained effort to integrate new evidence into a living systematic review. TRIAL REGISTRATION: PROSPERO 2020 CRD42020175648.

Care Coordination for Vulnerable Families in the Sydney Local Health District: What Works for Whom, under What Circumstances, and Why?

INTRODUCTION: Healthy Homes and Neighbourhoods (HHAN), an integrated care programme in the Sydney Local Health District (SLHD), seeks to address the needs of disadvantaged families through care coordination, as one of its components. This research aims to determine for whom, when and why the care coordination component of HHAN works, and establish the reported outcomes for clients, service-providers and partner organisations. METHODS: Critical realist methodology was utilised to undertake a qualitative evaluation of the impact of care coordination. Purposive sampling was used to select a total of 37 participants for interview, including consumers, service-providers and key stakeholders. Thematic analysis was undertaken to derive the major modes of intervention of HHAN, and data representing these elements was coded and summarised under contexts, mechanisms and outcomes. RESULTS: Analysis indicates that care coordination has a positive impact on clients' sense of independence, self-awareness and outlook on life. Trust and favourable interpersonal relations were identified as major underlying mechanisms for a successful client-provider working relationship. The identified modes of intervention facilitating positive consumer outcomes included accessibility, flexibility and service navigation. Persistent siloes in health and systemic resistance to collaboration was seen to hinder effective care delivery. CONCLUSIONS: This study suggests that a care coordination model may be effective in engaging disadvantaged families in healthcare, assist them in navigating the health system and can lead to beneficial health and social outcomes. Successful implementation of care coordination requires flexible programme design and experienced and skilful clinicians to fulfil the care coordinator role. There is a need to appreciate the negative impact that the complex and siloed health system can have on disadvantaged families.

Repurposing Existing Medications for Coronavirus Disease 2019: Protocol for a Rapid and Living Systematic Review.

BACKGROUND: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) has no known specific treatments. However, there might be in vitro and early clinical data as well as evidence from Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome and Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome that could inform clinicians and researchers. This systematic review aims to create priorities for future research of drugs repurposed for COVID-19. METHODS: This systematic review will include in vitro, animal, and clinical studies evaluating the efficacy of a list of 34 specific compounds and four groups of drugs identified in a previous scoping review. Studies will be identified both from traditional literature databases and pre-print servers. Outcomes assessed will include time to clinical improvement, time to viral clearance, mortality, length of hospital stay, and proportions transferred to the intensive care unit and intubated, respectively. We will use the GRADE methodology to assess the quality of the evidence. DISCUSSION: The challenge posed by COVID-19 requires not just a rapid review of drugs that can be repurposed but also a sustained effort to integrate new evidence into a living systematic review. SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION: PROSPERO 2020 CRD42020175648.

Factors associated with adverse outcomes during influenza outbreaks in aged care facilities.

OBJECTIVE: To explore factors associated with adverse outcomes during influenza outbreaks in residential aged care facilities. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study of all outbreaks reported to three Sydney metropolitan Public Health Units during 2017. RESULTS: A total of 123 outbreaks affected 1,787 residents and 543 staff. Early notification to a Public Health Unit was associated with shorter outbreak duration (p<0.001; B=0.674). Resident attack rates and resident mortality rates were lower in outbreaks notified early, on univariate analysis (p=0.034 and p=0.048 respectively) but not on an adjusted model. Staff attack rates were significantly associated with resident attack rates (p=0.001; B=0.736). Data on staff vaccination rates was incomplete and reported coverage rates were low (median 39%). Resident vaccination coverage ≥95% was associated with shorter outbreak duration in univariate testing but not on an adjusted model. CONCLUSIONS: Early public health notification is associated with improved outbreak parameters; sick staff may pose a risk to residents, yet vaccination rates are low. Resident vaccination may also be valuable. Implications for public health: Measures that facilitate early PHU involvement in influenza outbreaks should be implemented, such as compulsory reporting requirements and processes that permit easier notification through technology. Actions that enhance staff and resident vaccination coverage should also be undertaken.

Determining the factors associated with blood-borne virus testing of substance misusers presenting to hospital.

BACKGROUND: Diagnosing blood-borne virus (BBV) infection is an essential first step in eliminating transmission and securing access to treatment amongst substance misusers. AIMS: To determine the proportion of substance misusers presenting to hospital who undergo BBV testing and the factors influencing testing. METHODS: A retrospective cross-sectional study was performed of patients presenting to two Sydney teaching hospitals with substance misuse diagnoses between January and April 2015. Proportions tested for human immunodeficiency virus, hepatitis C and hepatitis B previously and during the index hospitalisation presentation were examined. Multivariable analysis was performed to determine factors associated with testing. RESULTS: Of 239 patients, 47 (19.7%) had a documented BBV at baseline. Of those with unknown BBV status, 29 (12.8%) had undergone some attempt at testing during presentation; 3.1% had their hepatitis B immunity assessed. Factors associated with an increased likelihood of testing during presentation included documented injecting drug use (odds ratio (OR) 15.14; 95% confidence interval (CI) 4.21-54.50; P < 0.001), admission under a physician (OR 11.79; 95% CI 2.82-49.40; P = 0.001) and admission on a Friday (OR 4.46; 95% CI 1.28-15.48; P = 0.02). Patients who had had more than one previous admission in the preceding 6 months (OR 0.24; 95% CI 0.078-0.73; P = 0.01) or a length of stay of 1 day or less (OR 0.17; 95% CI 0.032-0.87; P = 0.033) were less likely to be tested. CONCLUSION: Despite the high baseline prevalence of BBV infections in the population, there were many missed opportunities for BBV testing. We found patient-, admission- and clinician-level barriers that could be addressed to enhance BBV testing uptake.

Prevalence and determinants of cessation of exclusive breastfeeding in the early postnatal period in Sydney, Australia.

BACKGROUND: Optimal breastfeeding has benefits for the mother-infant dyads. This study investigated the prevalence and determinants of cessation of exclusive breastfeeding (EBF) in the early postnatal period in a culturally and linguistically diverse population in Sydney, New South Wales, Australia. METHODS: The study used routinely collected perinatal data on all live births in 2014 (N = 17,564) in public health facilities in two Local Health Districts in Sydney, Australia. The prevalence of mother's breastfeeding intention, skin-to-skin contact, EBF at birth, discharge and early postnatal period (1-4 weeks postnatal) were estimated. Multivariate logistic regression models that adjusted for confounders were conducted to determine association between cessation of EBF in the early postnatal period and socio-demographic, psychosocial and health service factors. RESULTS: Most mothers intended to breastfeed (92%), practiced skin-to-skin contact (81%), exclusively breastfed  at delivery (90%) and discharge (89%). However, the prevalence of EBF declined (by 27%) at the early postnatal period (62%). Younger mothers (<20 years) and mothers who smoked cigarettes in pregnancy were more likely to cease EBF in the early postnatal period compared to older mothers (20-39 years) and those who reported not smoking cigarettes, respectively [Adjusted Odds Ratio (AOR) =2.7, 95%CI 1.9-3.8, P <0.001 and AOR = 2.5, 95%CI 2.1-3.0, P <0.001, respectively]. Intimate partner violence, assisted delivery, low socio-economic status, pre-existing maternal health problems and a lack of partner support were also associated with early cessation of EBF in the postnatal period. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that while most mothers intend to breastfeed, and commence EBF at delivery and at discharge, the maintenance of EBF in the early postnatal period is sub-optimal. This highlights the need for efforts to promote breastfeeding in the wider community along with targeted actions for disadvantaged groups and those identified to be at risk of early cessation of EBF to maximise impact.