Assessing the future medical cost burden for the European health systems under alternative exposure-to-risks scenarios.

BACKGROUND: Ageing populations and rising prevalence of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) increasingly contribute to the growing cost burden facing European healthcare systems. Few studies have attempted to quantify the future magnitude of this burden at the European level, and none of them consider the impact of potential changes in risk factor trajectories on future health expenditures. METHODS: The new microsimulation model forecasts the impact of behavioural and metabolic risk factors on NCDs, longevity and direct healthcare costs, and shows how changes in epidemiological trends can modify those impacts. Economic burden of NCDs is modelled under three scenarios based on assumed future risk factors trends: business as usual (BAU); best case and worst case predictions (BCP and WCP). FINDINGS: The direct costs of NCDs in the EU 27 countries and the UK (in constant 2014 prices) will grow under all scenarios. Between 2014 and 2050, the overall healthcare spending is expected to increase by 0.8% annually under BAU. In the all the countries, 605 billion Euros can be saved by 2050 if BCP is realized compared to the BAU, while excess spending under the WCP is forecast to be around 350 billion. Interpretation: Although the savings realised under the BCP can be substantial, population ageing is a stronger driver of rising total healthcare expenditures in Europe compared to scenario-based changes in risk factor prevalence.

Australian adults use complementary and alternative medicine in the treatment of chronic illness: a national study.

OBJECTIVES: The objectives of this study were to identify the prevalence of the use of vitamin/mineral supplements or natural/herbal remedies, concurrent use of pharmaceutical medication, and to profile those most likely to use these complementary and alternative medicines (CAM) in the treatment of five chronic conditions identified as national health priorities (asthma, diabetes, arthritis, osteoporosis, heart or circulatory condition) within the Australian adult population. METHODS: Analysis of the Australian National Health Survey database, 2004-05. RESULTS: Approximately 24% (1.3 million) of Australian adults with a chronic condition regularly applied CAM to treatment. CAM was most often used exclusively or in combination with pharmaceutical medicine in the treatment of arthritis and osteoporosis. Fewer than 10% of adults with asthma, diabetes or a heart or circulatory condition used CAM, most preferring pharmaceutical medicine. Regular CAM users were more likely to be aged ≥60, female, have a secondary school education and live in households with lower incomes than non-users. Non-users were more likely to be 30-59 years old and tertiary educated. CONCLUSION AND IMPLICATIONS: Arthritis, osteoporosis and, to a lesser extent, heart or circulatory conditions are illnesses for which doctors should advise, and patients need to be most aware about the full effects of CAM and possible interactive effects with prescribed medicine. They are also conditions for which research into the interactive effects of CAM and pharmaceutical medication would seem of most immediate benefit.