Cardiovascular risk factors and aortic valve stenosis: towards 10-year absolute risk charts for primary prevention.

AIM: Due to aging populations the incidence of aortic valve stenosis (AVS) is increasing steeply. Since no medical therapy is available but only surgical interventions, it is highly warranted to identify modifiable risk factors for early prevention. The aim of the study was to investigate the associations of cardiovascular risk factors with AVS and to create 10-year absolute risk scores for use in primary prevention. METHODS: In the Copenhagen General Population Study (N=93,979) lifestyle data, biochemical measures, and confounders were assessed at baseline. Risk factors with the strongest association with aortic valve stenosis from Cox regression analyses were included in ten-year risk prediction models. Ten-year absolute risk scores were conducted using the method of Fine-Gray proportional sub-hazards models, accounting for competing events. RESULTS: 1,132 individuals developed AVS during follow-up. Of well-known cardiovascular risk factors, those that associated with AVS included increasing levels of remnant cholesterol, triglycerides, lipoprotein(a), systolic blood pressure, and body mass index, low adherence to Danish dietary guidelines, current smoking, high alcohol consumption, lipid-lowering therapy and diabetes mellitus. Ten-year absolute risk scores increased when compiling the most important risk factors for AVS; age, sex, body mass index, systolic blood pressure, lipoprotein(a), and diabetes. Ten-year absolute risk increased from <1% to 19%. CONCLUSIONS: The presence of cardiovascular risk factors is associated with AVS, supporting that this disease, at least partly, may be modifiable through lifestyle changes. Risk charts combining cardiovascular risk factors have the potential to identify high-risk individuals, offering opportunities for preventive strategies. (Word count 245).

This study investigates the impact of common cardiovascular risk factors on aortic valve stenosis (AVS) and introduces a risk score to predict the likelihood of developing AVS within ten years. We identified strong links between AVS and several risk factors, including lipid traits, high blood pressure, obesity, smoking, increased alcohol intake, low adherence to dietary guidelines, and diabetes. A ten-year risk score combining age, sex, body mass index, blood pressure, the lipid trait lipoprotein(a), and diabetes estimates an individual's future risk of AVS, which can range from 1% to 19%. Such risk scores enable identification of individuals at highest risk, where early prevention is most effective.

Physical activity in leisure time and at work and risk of dementia: A prospective cohort study of 117,616 individuals.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Up to 40% of all dementia cases may be preventable, primarily by treating or acting on well-established cardiovascular risk factors such as diabetes, hypertension, smoking, and physical inactivity. Whether physical inactivity is associated with risk of non-Alzheimer's dementia - a disease influenced by cardiovascular risk factors - and whether a given association differs for physical activity in leisure time and at work remains unknown. METHODS: We conducted a prospective cohort study including 117,616 individuals from the Copenhagen General Population Study and the Copenhagen City Heart Study with up to 43 years of follow-up. RESULTS: Multifactorially adjusted hazard ratios for low versus high physical activity at leisure time was 1.60 (95% confidence interval 1.40-1.83) for non-Alzheimer's dementia and 0.94 (0.80-1.11) for Alzheimer's disease. Corresponding values for non-Alzheimer's dementia after additional adjustment for physical activity at work or apolipoprotein E (APOE) genotype were 1.60 (1.40-1.83) and 1.82 (1.34-2.15). Multifactorially and APOE adjusted hazard ratios for high versus low physical activity at work were 1.50 (1.10-2.05) for non-Alzheimer's dementia and 1.62 (1.14-2.31) for Alzheimer's disease. When combining the two types of physical activity, physical activity in leisure time had the strongest relationship with risk of non-Alzheimer's dementia. CONCLUSIONS: Physical inactivity in leisure time was associated with increased risk of non-Alzheimer's dementia, independent of modifiable risk factors and physical activity at work. The present study thus provides evidence for public health advice on physical activity in leisure time for the vascular part of dementia.

Using Polygenic Hazard Scores to Predict Age at Onset of Alzheimer's Disease in Nordic Populations.

BACKGROUND: Polygenic hazard scores (PHS) estimate age-dependent genetic risk of late-onset Alzheimer's disease (AD), but there is limited information about the performance of PHS on real-world data where the population of interest differs from the model development population and part of the model genotypes are missing or need to be imputed. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to estimate age-dependent risk of late-onset AD using polygenic predictors in Nordic populations. METHODS: We used Desikan PHS model, based on Cox proportional hazards assumption, to obtain age-dependent hazard scores for AD from individual genotypes in the Norwegian DemGene cohort (n = 2,772). We assessed the risk discrimination and calibration of Desikan model and extended it by adding new genotype markers (the Desikan Nordic model). Finally, we evaluated both Desikan and Desikan Nordic models in two independent Danish cohorts: The Copenhagen City Heart Study (CCHS) cohort (n = 7,643) and The Copenhagen General Population Study (CGPS) cohort (n = 10,886). RESULTS: We showed a robust prediction efficiency of Desikan model in stratifying AD risk groups in Nordic populations, even when some of the model SNPs were missing or imputed. We attempted to improve Desikan PHS model by adding new SNPs to it, but we still achieved similar risk discrimination and calibration with the extended model. CONCLUSION: PHS modeling has the potential to guide the timing of treatment initiation based on individual risk profiles and can help enrich clinical trials with people at high risk to AD in Nordic populations.

Impact of diet on ten-year absolute cardiovascular risk in a prospective cohort of 94 321 individuals: A tool for implementation of healthy diets.

Background: An unhealthy diet is a major risk factor for cardiovascular disease attributing to the burden of non-communicable diseases. Current dietary guidelines are not sufficiently implemented and effective strategies to encourage people to change and maintain healthy diets are lacking. We aimed to evaluate the impact of incorporating dietary assessment into ten-year absolute risk charts for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). Methods: In the prospective Copenhagen General Population Study including 94 321 individuals, we generated sex-specific ten-year absolute risk scores for ASCVD according to adherence to dietary guidelines, using a short and valid food frequency questionnaire. To account for competing risk, we used the method of Fine-Gray. Findings: Non-adherence to dietary guidelines was associated with an atherogenic lipid and inflammatory profile. Ten-year absolute risk of ASCVD increased with increasing age, increasing systolic blood pressure, and decreasing adherence to dietary guidelines for both sexes. The highest ten-year absolute risk of ASCVD of 38% was observed in men aged 65-69 years who smoked, had very low adherence to dietary guidelines, and a systolic blood pressure between 160 and 179 mmHg. The corresponding value for women was 26%. Risk charts replacing dietary assessment with non-HDL cholesterol yielded similar estimates. Interpretation: Incorporation of a short dietary assessment into ten-year absolute risk charts has the potential to motivate patients to adhere to dietary guideline recommendations. Improved implementation of national dietary guidelines must be a cornerstone for future prevention of cardiovascular disease in both younger and older individuals. Funding: The Lundbeck Foundation (R278-2018-804) and the Danish Heart Foundation.

Plasma high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and risk of dementia: observational and genetic studies.

AIMS: The association of plasma high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol with risk of dementia is unclear. We, therefore, tested the hypothesis that high levels of plasma HDL cholesterol are associated with increased risk of dementia and whether a potential association is of a causal nature. METHODS AND RESULTS: In two prospective population-based studies, the Copenhagen General Population Study and the Copenhagen City Heart Study (N = 111 984 individuals), we first tested whether high plasma HDL cholesterol is associated with increased risk of any dementia and its subtypes. These analyses in men and women separately were adjusted multifactorially for other risk factors including apolipoprotein E (APOE) genotype. Second, taking advantage of two-sample Mendelian randomization, we tested whether genetically elevated HDL cholesterol was causally associated with Alzheimer's disease using publicly available consortia data on 643 836 individuals. Observationally, multifactorially adjusted Cox regression restricted cubic spline models showed that both men and women with extreme high HDL cholesterol concentrations had increased risk of any dementia and of Alzheimer's disease. Men in the 96th-99th and 100th vs. the 41st-60th percentiles of HDL cholesterol had multifactorially including APOE genotype adjusted hazard ratios of 1.66 (95% confidence interval 1.30-2.11) and 2.00 (1.35-2.98) for any dementia and 1.59 (1.16-2.20) and 1.87 (1.11-3.16) for Alzheimer's disease. Corresponding estimates for women were 0.94 (0.74-1.18) and 1.45 (1.03-2.05) for any dementia and 0.94 (0.70-1.26) and 1.69 (1.13-2.53) for Alzheimer's disease. Genetically, the two-sample Mendelian randomization odds ratio for Alzheimer's disease per 1 SD increase in HDL cholesterol was 0.92 (0.74-1.10) in the IGAP2019 consortium and 0.98 (0.95-1.00) in the ADSP/IGAP/PGC-ALZ/UKB consortium. Similar estimates were observed in sex stratified analyses. CONCLUSION: High plasma HDL cholesterol was observationally associated with increased risk of any dementia and Alzheimer's disease, suggesting that HDL cholesterol can be used as an easily accessible plasma biomarker for individual risk assessment.

Impact of plasma potassium normalization on short-term mortality in patients with hypertension and hypokalemia or low normal potassium.

BACKGROUND: Hypokalemia is common in patients treated with antihypertensive drugs, but the impact of correcting hypokalemia is insufficiently studied. We examined the consequences of hypokalemia and borderline hypokalemia correction in patients with hypertension. METHODS: We identified 8976 patients with hypertension and plasma potassium concentrations ≤3.7 mmol/L within 100 days from combination antihypertensive therapy initiation. The first measurement between 6 and 100 days after the episode with potassium ≤3.7 mmol/L was retained. We investigated all-cause and cardiovascular mortality within 60-days from the second potassium measurement using Cox regression. Mortality was examined for seven predefined potassium intervals derived from the second measurement: 1.5-2.9 mmol/L (n = 271), 3.0-3.4 mmol/L (n = 1341), 3.5-3.7 (n = 1982) mmol/L, 3.8-4.0 mmol/L (n = 2398, reference), 4.1-4.6 mmol/L (n = 2498), 4.7-5.0 mmol/L (n = 352) and 5.1-7.1 mmol/L (n = 134). RESULTS: Multivariable analysis showed that potassium concentrations 1.5-2.9 mmol/L, 3.0-3.4 mmol/L, 4.7-5.0 mmol/L and 5.1-7.1 mmol/L were associated with increased all-cause mortality (HR 2.39, 95% CI 1.66-3.43; HR 1.36, 95% CI 1.04-1.78; HR 2.36, 95% CI 1.68-3.30 and HR 2.62, 95% CI 1.73-3.98, respectively). Potassium levels <3.0 and > 4.6 mmol/L were associated with increased cardiovascular mortality. The adjusted standardized 60-day mortality risks in the seven strata were: 11.7% (95% CI 8.3-15.0%), 7.1% (95% CI 5.8-8.5%), 6.4% (95% CI 5.3-7.5%), 5.4% (4.5-6.3%), 6.3% (5.4-7.2%), 11.6% (95% CI 8.7-14.6%) and 12.6% (95% CI 8.2-16.9%), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Persistent hypokalemia was frequent and associated with increased all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. Increase in potassium to levels > 4.6 mmol/L in patients with initial hypokalemia or low normal potassium was associated with increased all-cause and cardiovascular mortality.

Short-term effect of the New Nordic Renal Diet on phosphorus homoeostasis in chronic kidney disease Stages 3 and 4.

BACKGROUND: The New Nordic Diet is a food concept favouring organically produced food items, fruits, vegetables, whole grains and fish. We investigated the short-term effects of a modified phosphorus-reduced New Nordic Renal Diet (NNRD) in chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients on important parameters of phosphorus homoeostasis. METHODS: The NNRD contained a total of 850 mg phosphorus/day. A total of 18 patients, CKD Stages 3 and 4 were studied in a randomized crossover trial comparing a 1-week control period of the habitual diet with a 1-week period of the NNRD. Data were obtained at baseline and during 1 week of dietary intervention (habitual diet versus NNRD) by collecting fasting blood samples and 24-h urine collections. The primary outcome was the difference in the change in 24-h urine phosphorus excretion from baseline to Day 7 between the NNRD and habitual diet periods. Secondary outcomes were changes in the fractional excretion of phosphorus, fibroblast growth factor 23 (FGF23) and plasma phosphate. RESULTS: As compared with the habitual diet, 24-h urine phosphorus excretion was reduced in the NNRD by 313 mg/day (P < 0.001). The mean baseline phosphorus was 875 ± 346 mg/day and was decreased by 400 ± 256 mg/day in the NNRD and 87 ± 266 mg/day in the habitual diet. The 24-h urine fractional excretion of phosphorus decreased by 11% (P < 0.001) and FGF23 decreased by 30 pg/mL (P = 0.03) with the NNRD compared with the habitual diet. Plasma phosphate did not change. CONCLUSION: This study demonstrates that dietary phosphorus restriction in the context of the NNRD is feasible and has positive effects on phosphorus homeostasis in CKD patients.

Stringent or nonstringent complete remission and prognosis in acute myeloid leukemia: a Danish population-based study.

Stringent complete remission (sCR) of acute myeloid leukemia is defined as normal hematopoiesis after therapy. Less sCR, including non-sCR, was introduced as insufficient blood platelet, neutrophil, or erythrocyte recovery. These latter characteristics were defined retrospectively as postremission transfusion dependency and were suggested to be of prognostic value. In the present report, we evaluated the prognostic impact of achieving sCR and non-sCR in the Danish National Acute Leukaemia Registry, including 769 patients registered with classical CR (ie, <5% blasts in the postinduction bone marrow analysis). Individual patients were classified as having sCR (n = 360; 46.8%) or non-sCR (n = 409; 53.2%) based on data from our national laboratory and transfusion databases. Survival analysis revealed that patients achieving sCR had superior overall survival (hazard ratio [HR], 1.34; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.10-1.64) as well as relapse-free survival (HR, 1.25; 95% CI, 1.03-1.51) compared with those with non-sCR after adjusting for covariates. Cox regression analysis regarding the impact of the stringent criteria for blood cell recovery identified these as significant and independent variables. In conclusion, this real-life register study supports the international criteria for response evaluation on prognosis and, most importantly, documents each of the 3 lineage recovery criteria as contributing independently.