Sampling considerations for a potential Zika virus urosurvey in New York City.

In 2016, imported Zika virus (ZIKV) infections and the presence of a potentially competent mosquito vector (Aedes albopictus) implied that ZIKV transmission in New York City (NYC) was possible. The NYC Department of Health and Mental Hygiene developed contingency plans for a urosurvey to rule out ongoing local transmission as quickly as possible if a locally acquired case of confirmed ZIKV infection was suspected. We identified tools to (1) rapidly estimate the population living in any given 150-m radius (i.e. within the typical flight distance of an Aedes mosquito) and (2) calculate the sample size needed to test and rule out the further local transmission. As we expected near-zero ZIKV prevalence, methods relying on the normal approximation to the binomial distribution were inappropriate. Instead, we assumed a hypergeometric distribution, 10 missed cases at maximum, a urine assay sensitivity of 92.6% and 100% specificity. Three suspected example risk areas were evaluated with estimated population sizes of 479-4,453, corresponding to a minimum of 133-1244 urine samples. This planning exercise improved our capacity for ruling out local transmission of an emerging infection in a dense, urban environment where all residents in a suspected risk area cannot be feasibly sampled.

A spatial and temporal analysis of paediatric central nervous system infections from 2005 to 2015 in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.

Central nervous system infections (CNSI) are a leading cause of death and long-term disability in children. Using ICD-10 data from 2005 to 2015 from three central hospitals in Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC), Vietnam, we exploited generalized additive mixed models (GAMM) to examine the spatial-temporal distribution and spatial and climatic risk factors of paediatric CNSI, excluding tuberculous meningitis, in this setting. From 2005 to 2015, there were 9469 cases of paediatric CNSI; 33% were ⩽1 year old at admission and were mainly diagnosed with presumed bacterial CNSI (BI) (79%), the remainder were >1 year old and mainly diagnosed with presumed non-bacterial CNSI (non-BI) (59%). The urban districts of HCMC in proximity to the hospitals as well as some outer districts had the highest incidences of BI and non-BI; BI incidence was higher in the dry season. Monthly BI incidence exhibited a significant decreasing trend over the study. Both BI and non-BI were significantly associated with lags in monthly average temperature, rainfall, and river water level. Our findings add new insights into this important group of infections in Vietnam, and highlight where resources for the prevention and control of paediatric CNSI should be allocated.

Epidemiological features and risk factors of Salmonella gastroenteritis in children resident in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.

Non-typhoidal Salmonella are an important but poorly characterized cause of paediatric diarrhoea in developing countries. We conducted a hospital-based case-control study in children aged <5 years in Ho Chi Minh City to define the epidemiology and examine risk factors associated with Salmonella diarrhoeal infections. From 1419 diarrhoea cases and 571 controls enrolled between 2009 and 2010, 77 (5∙4%) diarrhoea cases were stool culture-positive for non-typhoidal Salmonella. Salmonella patients were more likely to be younger than controls (median age 10 and 12 months, respectively) [odds ratio (OR) 0∙97; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0∙94-0∙99], to report a recent diarrhoeal contact (8∙1% cases, 1∙8% controls; OR 5∙98, 95% CI 1∙8-20∙4) and to live in a household with >2 children (cases 20∙8%, controls 10∙2%; OR 2∙32, 95% CI 1∙2-4∙7). Our findings indicate that Salmonella are an important cause of paediatric gastroenteritis in this setting and we suggest that transmission may occur through direct human contact in the home.