Estimating causal effects from panel data with dynamic multivariate panel models.

Panel data are ubiquitous in scientific fields such as social sciences. Various modeling approaches have been presented for observational causal inference based on such data. Existing approaches typically impose restrictive assumptions on the data-generating process such as Gaussian responses or time-invariant effects, or they can only consider short-term causal effects. To surmount these restrictions, we present the dynamic multivariate panel model (DMPM) that supports time-varying, time-invariant, and individual-specific effects, multiple responses across a wide variety of distributions, and arbitrary dependency structures of lagged responses of any order. We formally demonstrate how DMPM facilitates causal inference within the structural causal modeling framework and we take a Bayesian approach for the estimation of the posterior distributions of the model parameters and causal effects of interest. We demonstrate the use of DMPM by applying the approach to both real and synthetic data.

The effects of short-term glyphosate-based herbicide exposure on insect gene expression profiles.

Glyphosate-based herbicides (GBHs) are the most frequently used herbicides worldwide. The use of GBHs is intended to tackle weeds, but GBHs have been shown to affect the life-history traits and antioxidant defense system of invertebrates found in agroecosystems. Thus far, the effects of GBHs on detoxification pathways among invertebrates have not been sufficiently investigated. We performed two different experiments-1) the direct pure glyphosate and GBH treatment, and 2) the indirect GBH experiment via food-to examine the possible effects of environmentally relevant GBH levels on the survival of the Colorado potato beetle (Leptinotarsa decemlineata) and the expression profiles of their detoxification genes. As candidate genes, we selected four cytochrome P450 (CYP), three glutathione-S-transferase (GST), and two acetylcholinesterase (AChE) genes that are known to be related to metabolic or target-site resistances in insects. We showed that environmentally relevant levels of pure glyphosate and GBH increased the probability for higher mortality in the Colorado potato beetle larvae in the direct experiment, but not in the indirect experiment. The GBHs or glyphosate did not affect the expression profiles of the studied CYP, GST, or AChE genes; however, we found a large family-level variation in expression profiles in both the direct and indirect treatment experiments. These results suggest that the genes selected for this study may not be the ones expressed in response to glyphosate or GBHs. It is also possible that the relatively short exposure time did not affect gene expression profiles, or the response may have already occurred at a shorter exposure time. Our results show that glyphosate products may affect the survival of the herbivorous insect already at lower levels, depending on their sensitivity to pesticides.

Body weight and premature retirement: population-based evidence from Finland.

BACKGROUND: Health status is a principal determinant of labour market participation. In this study, we examined whether excess weight is associated with withdrawal from the labour market owing to premature retirement. METHODS: The analyses were based on nationally representative data from Finland over the period 2001-15 (N ∼ 2500). The longitudinal data included objective measures of body weight (i.e. body mass index and waist circumference) linked to register-based information on actual retirement age. The association between the body weight measures and premature retirement was modelled using cubic b-splines via logistic regression. The models accounted for other possible risk factors and potential confounders, such as smoking and education. RESULTS: Excess weight was associated with an increased risk of premature retirement for both men and women. A closer examination revealed that the probability of retirement varied across the weight distribution and the results differed between sexes and weight measures. CONCLUSION: Body weight outside a recommended range elevates the risk of premature retirement.

Do-search: A Tool for Causal Inference and Study Design with Multiple Data Sources.

Epidemiologic evidence is based on multiple data sources including clinical trials, cohort studies, surveys, registries, and expert opinions. Merging information from different sources opens up new possibilities for the estimation of causal effects. We show how causal effects can be identified and estimated by combining experiments and observations in real and realistic scenarios. As a new tool, we present do-search, a recently developed algorithmic approach that can determine the identifiability of a causal effect. The approach is based on do-calculus, and it can utilize data with nontrivial missing data and selection bias mechanisms. When the effect is identifiable, do-search outputs an identifying formula on which numerical estimation can be based. When the effect is not identifiable, we can use do-search to recognize additional data sources and assumptions that would make the effect identifiable. Throughout the article, we consider the effect of salt-adding behavior on blood pressure mediated by the salt intake as an example. The identifiability of this effect is resolved in various scenarios with different assumptions on confounding. There are scenarios where the causal effect is identifiable from a chain of experiments but not from survey data, as well as scenarios where the opposite is true. As an illustration, we use survey data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2013-2016 and the results from a meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials and estimate the reduction in average systolic blood pressure under an intervention where the use of table salt is discontinued.

Sublethal Pyrethroid Insecticide Exposure Carries Positive Fitness Effects Over Generations in a Pest Insect.

Stress tolerance and adaptation to stress are known to facilitate species invasions. Many invasive species are also pests and insecticides are used to control them, which could shape their overall tolerance to stress. It is well-known that heavy insecticide usage leads to selection of resistant genotypes but less is known about potential effects of mild sublethal insecticide usage. We studied whether stressful, sublethal pyrethroid insecticide exposure has within-generational and/or maternal transgenerational effects on fitness-related traits in the Colorado potato beetle (Leptinotarsa decemlineata) and whether maternal insecticide exposure affects insecticide tolerance of offspring. Sublethal insecticide stress exposure had positive within-and transgenerational effects. Insecticide-stressed larvae had higher adult survival and higher adult body mass than those not exposed to stress. Furthermore, offspring whose mothers were exposed to insecticide stress had higher larval and pupal survival and were heavier as adults (only females) than those descending from control mothers. Maternal insecticide stress did not explain differences in lipid content of the offspring. To conclude, stressful insecticide exposure has positive transgenerational fitness effects in the offspring. Therefore, unsuccessful insecticide control of invasive pest species may lead to undesired side effects since survival and higher body mass are known to facilitate population growth and invasion success.