Supporting habitat restoration in the northern Gulf of Mexico through synthesis of data on multiple and interacting benefits and stressors.

Outcomes of landscape scale restoration and conservation can be maximized when planning is based upon quantitative and decision-relevant information. Existing tools to support data-driven planning are hindered by regionally inconsistent information and a need for advanced methods to analyze data of varying spatial resolution and coverage. We present a synthesis methodology for region-wide derived metrics to characterize natural resource value, ecosystem stress, and social vulnerability to inform implementation of conservation and restoration projects. Our three-part methodology was developed and tested for the Gulf of Mexico in support of the Southeast Conservation Blueprint that was created to advance the Southeast Conservation and Adaptation Strategy. The first step included integration of prioritized natural resource metrics alongside socio-ecological metrics to create a data layer of synthesized natural resource priority across the northern Gulf of Mexico. The second component was calculation of ecosystem stress indices based on ecologically relevant thresholds and a cumulative ecosystem stress layer, in addition to analyzing correlations between individual stressors and their relative importance. The final component was development of a social vulnerability (SoVI) index. Analysis of these metrics illustrate their ability to effectively capture variability at multiple scales in the Gulf of Mexico, including expected spatial correlation of stressors such as road density and non-point source pollution in populated areas and the dominance of sea-level rise as a future stressor along the coast. Significant composite components of social vulnerability for the northern Gulf of Mexico region were identified and include economic status, professional workforce, elderly population, population stability, migrant workforce, and rural population. To demonstrate the utility of the data synthesis approach, we used the developed data layers to evaluate proposed marsh creation projects in southern Louisiana. The synthesized data layers were capable of distinguishing differences at the scale of individual habitat restoration projects, and high-value projects could be aligned with the goals of key funding streams. This pilot application illustrates how restoration programs could use the methodology developed here to maximize benefits from conservation and restoration actions along the northern Gulf of Mexico or other regions globally.

A multiscale natural community and species-level vulnerability assessment of the Gulf Coast, USA.

Vulnerability assessments combine quantitative and qualitative evaluations of the exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of species or natural communities to current and future threats. When combined with the economic, ecological or evolutionary value of the species, vulnerability assessments quantify the relative risk to regional species and natural communities and can enable informed prioritization of conservation efforts. Vulnerability assessments are common practice in conservation biology, including the potential impacts of future climate scenarios. However, geographic variation in scenarios and vulnerabilities is rarely quantified. This gap is particularly limiting for informing ecosystem management given that conservation practices typically vary by sociopolitical boundaries rather than by ecological boundaries. To support prioritization of conservation actions across a range of spatial scales, we conducted the Gulf Coast Vulnerability Assessment (GCVA) for four natural communities and eleven focal species around the Gulf of Mexico based on current and future threats from climate change and land-use practices out to 2060. We used the Standardized Index of Vulnerability and Value (SIVVA) tool to assess both natural community and species vulnerabilities. We observed greater variation across ecologically delineated subregions within the Gulf Coast of the U.S. than across climate scenarios. This novel finding suggests that future vulnerability assessments incorporate regional variation and that conservation prioritization may vary across ecological subregions. Across subregions and climate scenarios the most prominent threats were legacy effects, primarily from habitat loss and degradation, that compromised the adaptive capacity of species and natural communities. The second most important threats were future threats from sea-level rise. Our results suggest that the substantial threats species and natural communities face from climate change and sea-level rise would be within their adaptive capacity were it not for historic habitat loss, fragmentation, and degradation.