Comparison of different frailty instruments for prediction of functional decline in older hypertensive outpatients (HYPER-FRAIL pilot study 2).

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Few studies have evaluated frailty in older hypertensive individuals and the most appropriate tools to identify frailty in this population have yet to be identified. This study compared the performance of six frailty instruments in the prediction of 1-year functional decline in older hypertensive outpatients. METHODS: The HYPERtension and FRAILty in Older Adults (HYPER-FRAIL) longitudinal pilot study involved hypertensive participants ≥75 years from two geriatric outpatient clinics at Careggi Hospital, Florence, Italy, undergoing identification of frailty with four frailty scales (Fried Frailty Phenotype, Frailty Index [FI], Clinical Frailty Scale [CFS], Frailty Postal Score) and two physical performance tests (Short Physical Performance Battery [SPPB] and gait speed). Prediction of 1-year functional decline (i.e. a ≥ 10-point Barthel Index decrease between baseline and follow-up) was examined based on ROC curve analysis and multivariable logistic regression. RESULTS: Among 116 participants, 24 % reported functional decline. In the ROC curve analyses, FI (AUC=0.76), CFS (AUC=0.77), gait speed (AUC=0.73) and the SPPB (AUC=0.77) achieved the best predictive performance, with FI ≥0.21 and CFS ≥4 showing the highest sensitivity (82 %) and negative predictive value (91 %). Frailty identified with FI, CFS or physical performance tests was associated with an increased risk of 1-year functional decline, independently of baseline functional status and comorbidity burden. CONCLUSIONS: FI, CFS and physical performance tests showed similar predictive ability for functional decline in hypertensive outpatients. The CFS and gait speed might be more suitable for clinical use and may be useful to identify non-frail individuals at lower risk of functional decline.

Effects of the implementation of the dynamic silver code in the emergency department.

BACKGROUND: Older persons accessing the Emergency Department (ED) spend more time and are at increased risk of poor outcomes. The Dynamic Silver Code (DSC), based on administrative data, predicts mortality of 75+ subjects visiting the ED. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the effects of the implementation of the DSC in the ED. METHODS: A pre-post comparison was conducted in the ED of a community hospital in Florence, Italy before and after the DSC was fully implemented. In the post-DSC phase, a clinical decision tree was applied: patients at low-mild risk (DSC class I and II) were assigned to Internal Medicine, those at moderate risk (class III) to Geriatrics, and those at high risk (class IV) required geriatric consultation before assignment. Outcome measures were ED length of stay (LOS) and, in patients admitted to Geriatrics, weight of the Diagnosis Related Groups (DRG), hospital LOS, and mortality. RESULTS: 7,270 patients were enrolled in the pre-DSC and 4,725 in the post-DSC phase. ED LOS decreased from a median of 380 [206, 958] in the pre-DSC to 318 [178, 655] min in the post-DSC period (p<0.001). Class III represented the largest share of admissions to Geriatrics in the post-DSC period (57.7 % vs. 38.3 %; p<0.001). In patients admitted to Geriatrics, hospital LOS decreased by one day (p = 0.006) between the two study periods, with greater DRG weight and comparable mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Application of the DSC seemed to ease patient flow and to reduce LOS of older patients in the ED and increased appropriateness of admissions to Geriatrics.

Prevalence and correlates of frailty in older hypertensive outpatients according to different tools: the HYPER-FRAIL pilot study.

OBJECTIVES: To date, few studies have investigated frailty in hypertensive individuals. This study aimed at identifying the prevalence of frailty in a sample of hypertensive older outpatients using six different identification tools. Clinical correlates of frailty and agreement between different frailty definitions were also investigated. METHODS: The HYPER-FRAIL pilot study recruited hypertensive patients aged at least 75 years from two geriatric outpatient clinics of Careggi Hospital, Florence, Italy. Four frailty scales [Fried Frailty Phenotype, Frailty Index, Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS), Frailty Postal Score] and two physical performance tests [Short Physical Performance Battery (SPPB) and usual gait speed] were applied. The Cohen's kappa coefficient was calculated to assess agreement between measures. Multiple logistic regression was used to identify clinical features independently associated with frailty. RESULTS: Among 121 participants (mean age 81, 60% women), frailty prevalence varied between 33 and 50% according to the tool used. Moderate agreement was observed between Fried Frailty Phenotype, Frailty Index and SPPB, and between Frailty Index and CFS. Agreement was minimal or weak between the remaining measures (K < 0.60). Use of walking aids and depressive symptoms were independently associated with frailty, regardless of the definition used. Frailty correlates also included dementia, disability and comorbidity burden, but not office and 24-h blood pressure values. CONCLUSION: Frailty is highly prevalent among older hypertensive outpatients, but agreement between different frailty tools was moderate-to-weak. Longitudinal studies are needed to assess the prognostic role of different frailty tools and their clinical utility in the choice of antihypertensive treatment.

Health trajectories in older patients hospitalized for COVID-19: Results from the GeroCovid multicenter study.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 has disproportionately affected older adults. Yet, healthcare trajectories experienced by older persons hospitalized for COVID-19 have not been investigated. This study aimed at estimating the probabilities of transitions between severity states in older adults admitted in COVID-19 acute wards and at identifying the factors associated with such dynamics. METHODS: COVID-19 patients aged ≥60 years hospitalized between March and December 2020 were involved in the multicentre GeroCovid project-acute wards substudy. Sociodemographic and health data were obtained from medical records. Clinical states during hospitalization were categorized on a seven-category scale, ranging from hospital discharge to death. Based on the transitions between these states, first, we defined patients' clinical course as positive (only improvements), negative (only worsening), or fluctuating (both improvements and worsening). Second, we focused on the single transitions between clinical states and estimated their probability (through multistage Markov modeling) and associated factors (with proportional intensity models). RESULTS: Of the 1024 included patients (mean age 78.1 years, 51.1% women), 637 (62.2%) had a positive, 66 (6.4%) had a fluctuating, and 321 (31.3%) had a negative clinical course. Patients with a fluctuating clinical course were younger, had better mobility and cognitive levels, fewer diseases, but a higher prevalence of cardiovascular disease and obesity. Considering the single transitions, the probability that older COVID-19 patients experienced clinical changes was higher within a 10-day timeframe, especially for milder clinical states. Older age, male sex, lower mobility level, multimorbidity, and hospitalization during the COVID-19 first wave (compared with the second one) were associated with an increased probability of progressing towards worse clinical states or with a lower recovery. CONCLUSION: COVID-19 in older inpatients has a complex and dynamic clinical course. Identifying individuals more likely to experience a fluctuating clinical course and sudden worsening may help organize healthcare resources and clinical management across settings at different care intensity levels.

COVID-19, Vulnerability, and Long-Term Mortality in Hospitalized and Nonhospitalized Older Persons.

OBJECTIVE: Studies suggesting that vulnerability increased short-term mortality in older patients with COVID-19 enrolled hospitalized patients and lacked COVID-negative comparators. Aim of this study was to examine the relationship between frailty and 1-year mortality in older patients with and without COVID-19, hospitalized and nonhospitalized. DESIGN: Cohort study. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Patients over 75 years old accessing the emergency departments (ED) were identified from the ED archives in Florence, Italy. METHODS: Vulnerability status was estimated with the Dynamic Silver Code (DSC). COVID-19 hospital discharges (HC+) were compared with non-COVID-19 discharges (HC-). Linkage with a national COVID-19 registry identified nonhospitalized ED visitors with (NHC+) or without COVID-19 (NHC-). RESULTS: In 1 year, 48.4% and 33.9% of 1745 HC+ and 15,846 HC- participants died (P < .001). Mortality increased from 27.5% to 64.0% in HC+ and from 19.9% to 51.1% in HC- across DSC classes I to IV, with HC+ vs HC- hazard ratios between 1.6 and 2.2. Out of 1039 NHC+ and 18,722 NHC- participants, 18% and 8.7% died (P < .001). Mortality increased from 14.2% to 46.7% in NHC+ and from 2.9% to 26% in NHC- across DSC; NHC+ vs NHC- hazard ratios decreased from 5.3 in class I to 2.0 in class IV. CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS: In hospitalized older patients, mortality increases with vulnerability similarly in the presence and in the absence of COVID-19. In nonhospitalized patients, vulnerability-associated excess mortality is milder in individuals with than in those without COVID-19. The disease reduces survival even when background risk is low. Thus, apparently uncomplicated patients deserve closer clinical monitoring than commonly applied.

Estimating Prognosis and Frailty in Persons Aged ≥75 Years in the Emergency Department: Further Validation of Dynamic Silver Code.

OBJECTIVES: To assess concurrent validity of the Dynamic Silver Code (DSC), a tool based on administrative data that predicts prognosis in older adults accessing the emergency department (ED), in terms of association with markers of poor functional and cognitive status. DESIGN: Cross-sectional. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Data were obtained in the AIDEA study, which enrolled a cohort of ≥75-year-old patients, accessing the ED of 2 hospitals in Florence, Italy. METHODS: The DSC score and classes (I to IV, corresponding to an increasing risk of death) were obtained from administrative data. Information on health and functional status prior to ED access were collected from face-to-face, direct, or proxy interviews. The 4AT test was administered to screen for possible delirium. Bivariate comparisons of the prevalence of each functional and cognitive marker across 4 DSC classes were performed. Multinomial logistic regression was used to assess the multivariable risk of being in II, III, or IV DSC class vs I. RESULTS: Among 3358 participants (mean age 83 years, men 44%), 32.9%, 30.3%, 19.5%, and 17.2% were in DSC class I, II, III, and IV. Preadmission abnormal functional and cognitive conditions, and delirium in the ED, were increasingly more common from DSC class I through IV (P < .001). In particular, the prevalence of total inability to walk increased from 2.9% (class I) to 23.4% (class IV). In multivariable analyses, this was the strongest predictor of being in progressively worse DSC classes, whereas feeling of exhaustion, reporting of serious falls, weight loss, and severe memory loss or diagnosis of dementia gave some contribution. CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS: The ability of the DSC to predict survival in older persons appears to rely on its prevailing association with markers of functional impairment. These results may support clinical use of the tool.

Real-time utilisation of administrative data in the ED to identify older patients at risk: development and validation of the Dynamic Silver Code.

OBJECTIVE: Identification of older patients at risk, among those accessing the emergency department (ED), may support clinical decision-making. To this purpose, we developed and validated the Dynamic Silver Code (DSC), a score based on real-time linkage of administrative data. DESIGN AND SETTING: The 'Silver Code National Project (SCNP)', a non-concurrent cohort study, was used for retrospective development and internal validation of the DSC. External validation was obtained in the 'Anziani in DEA (AIDEA)' concurrent cohort study, where the DSC was generated by the software routinely used in the ED. PARTICIPANTS: The SCNP contained 281 321 records of 180 079 residents aged 75+ years from Tuscany and Lazio, Italy, admitted via the ED to Internal Medicine or Geriatrics units. The AIDEA study enrolled 4425 subjects aged 75+ years (5217 records) accessing two EDs in the area of Florence, Italy. INTERVENTIONS: None. OUTCOME MEASURES: Primary outcome: 1-year mortality. SECONDARY OUTCOMES: 7 and 30-day mortality and 1-year recurrent ED visits. RESULTS: Advancing age, male gender, previous hospital admission, discharge diagnosis, time from discharge and polypharmacy predicted 1-year mortality and contributed to the DSC in the development subsample of the SCNP cohort. Based on score quartiles, participants were classified into low, medium, high and very high-risk classes. In the SCNP validation sample, mortality increased progressively from 144 to 367 per 1000 person-years, across DSC classes, with HR (95% CI) of 1.92 (1.85 to 1.99), 2.71 (2.61 to 2.81) and 5.40 (5.21 to 5.59) in class II, III and IV, respectively versus class I (p<0.001). Findings were similar in AIDEA, where the DSC predicted also recurrent ED visits in 1 year. In both databases, the DSC predicted 7 and 30-day mortality. CONCLUSIONS: The DSC, based on administrative data available in real time, predicts prognosis of older patients and might improve their management in the ED.