Machine learning predicts upper secondary education dropout as early as the end of primary school.

Education plays a pivotal role in alleviating poverty, driving economic growth, and empowering individuals, thereby significantly influencing societal and personal development. However, the persistent issue of school dropout poses a significant challenge, with its effects extending beyond the individual. While previous research has employed machine learning for dropout classification, these studies often suffer from a short-term focus, relying on data collected only a few years into the study period. This study expanded the modeling horizon by utilizing a 13-year longitudinal dataset, encompassing data from kindergarten to Grade 9. Our methodology incorporated a comprehensive range of parameters, including students' academic and cognitive skills, motivation, behavior, well-being, and officially recorded dropout data. The machine learning models developed in this study demonstrated notable classification ability, achieving a mean area under the curve (AUC) of 0.61 with data up to Grade 6 and an improved AUC of 0.65 with data up to Grade 9. Further data collection and independent correlational and causal analyses are crucial. In future iterations, such models may have the potential to proactively support educators' processes and existing protocols for identifying at-risk students, thereby potentially aiding in the reinvention of student retention and success strategies and ultimately contributing to improved educational outcomes.

Predicting adult-age mental health with childhood reading and math disability: do resilience and coping styles matter?

We studied the associations between childhood-identified learning disabilities and adult-age mental health and whether adult-age reading and math skills, coping styles, or resilience influenced the associations. The participants were 159 Finnish adults (60.4% males). Of them, 48 (30%) had a reading disability (RD), 22 (14%) had a math disability (MD), 21 (13%) had RD + MD identified in childhood, and 68 (43%) were population-based controls, matched based on gender, age, and place of residence. At ages 20-40 (Mage = 29), they reported their mental health, coping styles, and resilience, and their reading and math skills were assessed. The hierarchical regression analyses, predicting mental health with RD, MD, and their interaction while controlling for gender and age, indicated that childhood MD predicted the occurrence of more mental health problems in adulthood, but this was not observed in the case of RD. The RDxMD positive interaction effect reflected better mental health in both the RD and the RD + MD groups than in the MD group. Controlling for adult-age reading and math skills had no effect on the association between MD and mental health outcomes while controlling for resilience and coping styles diminished the impact of MD. Strong resilience without the use of an emotion-oriented coping may thus alleviate the association between MD and mental health. As childhood MD can have long-term associations with mental health problems, these issues need to be addressed in school, at work, and in healthcare. Based on our findings, strengthening effective coping and resilience may be one avenue of support.

A Register Study Suggesting Homotypic and Heterotypic Comorbidity Among Individuals With Learning Disabilities.

The present study examined whether learning disabilities (LD) in reading and/or math (i.e., reading disability [RD], math disability [MD], and RD+MD) co-occur with other diagnoses. The data comprised a clinical sample (n = 430) with LD identified in childhood and a sample of matched controls (n = 2,140). Their medical diagnoses (according to the International Classification of Diseases nosology) until adulthood (20-39 years) were analyzed. The co-occurrence of LD with neurodevelopmental disorders was considered a homotypic comorbidity, and co-occurrence with disorders or diseases from the other diagnostic categories (i.e., mental and behavioral disorders, diseases of the nervous system, injuries, other medical or physical diagnoses) was considered a heterotypic comorbidity. Both homotypic and heterotypic comorbidity were more common in the LD group. Co-occurring neurodevelopmental disorders were the most prominent comorbid disorders, but mental and behavioral disorders, diseases of the nervous system, and injuries were also pronounced in the LD group. Accumulation of diagnoses across the diagnostic categories was more common in the LD group. No differences were found among the RD, MD, and RD+MD subgroups. The findings are relevant from the theoretical perspective, as well as for clinical and educational practice, as they provide understanding regarding individual distress and guiding for the planning of support.

The development and cross-national validation of the short health literacy for school-aged children (HLSAC-5) instrument.

Health literacy is an asset for and indicator of adolescents' health and wellbeing, and should therefore be monitored and addressed across countries. This study aimed to develop and validate a shorter version of the original 10-item health literacy for school-aged children instrument in a cross-national context, using data from the health behaviour in school-aged children 2017/18 survey. The data were obtained from 25 425 adolescents (aged 13 and 15 years) from seven European countries. Determination was made of the best item combination to form a shorter version of the health literacy instrument. Thereafter, the structural validity, reliability, measurement invariance, and criterion validity of the new 5-item instrument were examined. Confirmatory factor analysis showed a good model fit to the data across countries and in the total sample, confirming the structural validity (CFI = 0.995, TLI = 0.989, SRMR = 0.011, RMSEA = 0.031). The internal consistency of the instrument was at a good level across countries (α = 0.87-0.98), indicating that the instrument provided reliable scores. Configural and metric invariance was established across genders, ages, and countries. Scalar invariance was achieved for age and gender groups, but not between countries. This indicated that the factor structure of the scale was similar, but that there were differences between the countries in health literacy levels. Regarding criterion validity, structural equation modelling showed a positive association between health literacy and self-rated health in all the participating countries. The new instrument was found to be valid and reliable for the purposes of measuring health literacy among adolescents in a cross-national context.

Examining Maternal Cardiometabolic Markers in Pregnancy on Child Emotional and Behavior Trajectories: Using Growth Curve Models on a Cohort Study.

Background: Poor maternal cardiometabolic health in pregnancy is associated with negative effects on child health outcomes, but there is limited literature on child and adolescent socioemotional outcomes. The study aimed to investigate associations between maternal cardiometabolic markers during pregnancy with child and adolescent socioemotional trajectories. Methods: Growth curve models were run to examine how maternal cardiometabolic markers in pregnancy affected child socioemotional trajectories from ages 4 to 16. Models were adjusted for all pregnancy trimesters and maternal, child, and socioeconomic covariates. This study used the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (United Kingdom) cohort. Participants consisted of mother-child pairs (N = 15,133). Maternal predictors of fasting glucose, triglycerides, high-density lipoprotein, low-density lipoprotein, and body mass index were taken from each pregnancy trimester (T1, T2, T3). Child outcomes included emotional problems, conduct problems, and hyperactivity problems from the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire. Results: Fully adjusted models showed significant associations between elevated T1 fasting glucose and increased conduct problems, higher T1 body mass index and increased hyperactivity problems, lowered T1 high-density lipoprotein and decreased hyperactivity problems, and elevated T2 triglycerides and increased hyperactivity problems. Conclusions: Maternal cardiometabolic risk is associated with conduct and hyperactivity outcomes from ages 4 to 16. This study suggests that maternal markers of fasting glucose, low-density lipoprotein, high-density lipoprotein, and triglycerides during pregnancy could be added as supplements for clinical measures of risk when predicting child and adolescent socioemotional trajectories.

Developmental profiles of arithmetic fluency skills from grades 1 to 9 and their early identification.

The aim of the present study was to examine the kinds of developmental profiles of arithmetic fluency skills that can be identified across Grades 1-9 (ages 7-16) in a large Finnish sample (n = 2,518). The study also examined whether membership in the developmental profiles could be predicted using a comprehensive set of kindergarten-age factors, including information on cognitive skills; motivational, parental, and home environment factors; and gender. Four profiles of arithmetic fluency skills development were identified using a factor mixture model: persistent arithmetic difficulties (12.23%), precocious onset (50.24%), delayed onset (36.96%), and precocious onset with a Grade 7 drop (.06%). The Cholesky models predicting membership in the three largest profiles suggested that overall, the strongest kindergarten-age predictors were cognitive skills (especially counting, number concepts, spatial relations, rapid automatized naming [RAN], phonological awareness, and letter knowledge), but motivational, parental, and home environment factors were also significant. Membership in the profile with precocious onset was predicted by most of the kindergarten-age measures, suggesting that the strengths in early skills, as well as motivational, parental, and home environment factors, are reflected in the advanced start in arithmetic development at school. The profiles with delayed onset and persistent difficulties were similar in most kindergarten-age measures but differed in task avoidance and four cognitive skills (letter knowledge, counting, number concepts, and RAN), suggesting that these factors predict differential development over the longer term. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2023 APA, all rights reserved).

Literacy skills seem to fuel literacy enjoyment, rather than vice versa.

Children who like to read and write tend to be better at it. This association is typically interpreted as enjoyment impacting engagement in literacy activities, which boosts literacy skills. We fitted direction-of-causation models to partial data of 3690 Finnish twins aged 12. Literacy skills were rated by the twins' teachers and literacy enjoyment by the twins themselves. A bivariate twin model showed substantial genetic influences on literacy skills (70%) and literacy enjoyment (35%). In both skills and enjoyment, shared-environmental influences explained about 20% in each. The best-fitting direction-of-causation model showed that skills impacted enjoyment, while the influence in the other direction was zero. The genetic influences on skills influenced enjoyment, likely via the skills→enjoyment path. This indicates an active gene-environment correlation: children with an aptitude for good literacy skills are more likely to enjoy reading and seek out literacy activities. To a lesser extent, it was also the shared-environmental influences on children's skills that propagated to influence children's literacy enjoyment. Environmental influences that foster children's literacy skills (e.g., families and schools), also foster children's love for reading and writing. These findings underline the importance of nurturing children's literacy skills. HIGHLIGHTS: It's known that how much children enjoy reading and writing and how good they are at it correlates ∼0.30, but causality remains unknown. We tested the direction of causation in 3690 twins aged 12. Literacy skills impacted literacy enjoyment, but not the other way around. Genetics influence children's literacy skills and how much they like and choose to read and write, indicating genetic niche picking.

Reading and math skills development among Finnish primary school children before and after COVID-19 school closure.

This study quantified the possible learning losses in reading and math skills among a sample of Finnish Grade 3 children (n = 198) who spent 8 weeks in distance learning during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in spring 2020. We compared their reading and math skill development trajectories across Grades 1, 2, and 4 to a pre-COVID sample (N = 378). We also examined if gender, parental education, maternal homework involvement, and child's task-avoidant behavior predict children's academic skills at Grade 4 differently in the pre-COVID sample compared with the COVID sample. Children's reading and math skills were tested, mothers reported their education and homework involvement, and teachers rated children's task-avoidant behavior. The results showed, on average, lower reading skills in the COVID sample than in the pre-COVID sample but there were no differences in math skills. Although the COVID sample had lower levels in reading, their developmental trajectories in reading and math skills were not different from the pre-COVID sample before the pandemic in Grades 1 and 2. From Grade 2 to 4, however, the development was slower in reading fluency and comprehension in the COVID sample, but not in math. The predictors of change from Grade 2 to 4 in reading and math skills were not different in the samples. The results showed that the development of reading skills in particular may have been affected by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Predictors of outcome after a time-limited psychosocial intervention for adolescent depression.

Research on the predictors of outcome for early, community-based, and time-limited interventions targeted for clinical depression in adolescents is still scarce. We examined the role of demographic, psychosocial, and clinical variables as predictors of outcome in a trial conducted in Finnish school health and welfare services to identify factors associating to symptom reduction and remission after a brief depression treatment. A total of 55 12-16-year-olds with mild to moderate depression received six sessions of either interpersonal counseling for adolescents (IPC-A) or brief psychosocial support (BPS). Both interventions resulted in clinical improvement at end of treatment and 3- and 6-month follow-ups. Main outcome measures were self-rated BDI-21 and clinician-rated Adolescent Depression Rating Scale (ADRSc). Latent change score (LCS) models were used to identify predictors of change in depressive symptom scores and clinical remission at end of treatment and 3- and 6-month follow-ups over the combined brief intervention group. Symptom improvement was predicted by younger age and having a close relationship with parents. Both symptom improvement and clinical remission were predicted by male gender, not having comorbid anxiety disorder, and not having sleep difficulties. Our results add to knowledge on factors associating with good treatment outcome after a brief community intervention for adolescent depression. Brief depression interventions may be useful and feasible especially for treatment of mild and moderate depression among younger adolescents and boys, on the other hand clinicians may need to cautiously examine sleep problems and anxiety comorbidity as markers of the need for longer treatment.

Long-term effects of the home literacy environment on reading development: Familial risk for dyslexia as a moderator.

This study aimed to gain better understanding of the associations between literacy activities at home and long-term language and literacy development. We extended the home literacy environment (HLE) model of Sénéchal and LeFevre (Child Development [2002], Vol. 73, pp. 445-460) by including repeated assessments of shared reading, oral language, and reading comprehension development, including examination of familial risk for dyslexia as a moderator, and following development over time from ages 2 to 15 years. Of the 198 Finnish participants, 106 have familial risk for dyslexia due to parental dyslexia. Our path models include development in vocabulary (2-5.5 years), emerging literacy (5.5 years), reading fluency (8 and 9 years), and reading comprehension (8, 9, and 15 years) as well as shared book reading with parents (2, 4, 5, 8, and 9 years), teaching literacy at home (4.5 years), and reading motivation (8-9 years). The results supported the HLE model in that teaching literacy at home predicted stronger emerging literacy skills, whereas shared book reading predicted vocabulary development and reading motivation. Both emerging literacy and vocabulary predicted reading development. Familial risk for dyslexia was a significant moderator regarding several paths; vocabulary, reading fluency, and shared reading were stronger predictors of reading comprehension among children with familial risk for dyslexia, whereas reading motivation was a stronger predictor of reading comprehension among adolescents with no familial risk. The findings underline the importance of shared reading and suggest a long-standing impact of shared reading on reading development both directly and through oral language development and reading motivation.

Developmental profiles of reading fluency and reading comprehension from grades 1 to 9 and their early identification.

This study examined developmental profiles of reading fluency and reading comprehension in Grades 1 to 9 (ages 7 to 15) in a large Finnish sample (N = 2,518). In addition, early predictors of the profiles were analyzed with respect to kindergarten cognitive skills (phonological awareness, letter knowledge, rapid automized naming [RAN], number counting, word reading, vocabulary, and listening comprehension), parental factors (level of education, reading difficulties), and gender. Four different profiles of reading fluency and reading comprehension development were identified using latent profile analysis. These comprised one profile with persistent reading difficulties across the grades, one with early poor reading skills but with a resolving tendency, one with average reading skills, and one with good readers who started with very high reading fluency but scored average over time. Of the kindergarten measures, parental reading difficulties, being male, low paternal level of education, slow RAN, difficulty in reading easy words, and low scores in phonological skills, letter knowledge, number counting, and vocabulary predicted reading difficulties. The children belonging to the profile with the resolving tendency showed an increased rate of family risk and multiple cognitive deficits but managed to resolve their reading difficulties. Being female, and good number counting and vocabulary skills predicted a tendency to resolve early reading difficulties. The results confirm the previous findings on the early predictors of reading difficulties and add to the literature by identifying skills that predict resolving patterns. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2021 APA, all rights reserved).

Unveiling the Mysteries of Dyslexia-Lessons Learned from the Prospective Jyväskylä Longitudinal Study of Dyslexia.

This paper reviews the observations of the Jyväskylä Longitudinal Study of Dyslexia (JLD). The JLD is a prospective family risk study in which the development of children with familial risk for dyslexia (N = 108) due to parental dyslexia and controls without dyslexia risk (N = 92) were followed from birth to adulthood. The JLD revealed that the likelihood of at-risk children performing poorly in reading and spelling tasks was fourfold compared to the controls. Auditory insensitivity of newborns observed during the first week of life using brain event-related potentials (ERPs) was shown to be the first precursor of dyslexia. ERPs measured at six months of age related to phoneme length identification differentiated the family risk group from the control group and predicted reading speed until the age of 14 years. Early oral language skills, phonological processing skills, rapid automatized naming, and letter knowledge differentiated the groups from ages 2.5-3.5 years onwards and predicted dyslexia and reading development, including reading comprehension, until adolescence. The home environment, a child's interest in reading, and task avoidance were not different in the risk group but were found to be additional predictors of reading development. Based on the JLD findings, preventive and intervention methods utilizing the association learning approach have been developed.

The Impact of School Closure on Adolescents' Wellbeing, and Steps towards to a New Normal: The Need for an Assessment Tool Update?

Close to 200 countries have implemented school closures to decrease the spread of the COVID-19 coronavirus. Though the closures have seemed necessary, their effects on the wellbeing of children and adolescents have raised serious concerns. To truly understand the impact of such disruption on young people's wellbeing, and their views on how to move towards a new normal, we must adopt different approaches to gather the data to secure children's and adolescents' rights to be heard in the issues that concern their lives. Current ways to examine the impacts of school closure have been dominated by gathering information concerning the children and adolescents, using mainly existing wellbeing indicators and related questionnaire surveys. Although such sources of information are important, they provide limited understanding of how children and adolescents have experienced school closures, especially if they have been produced using measures developed purely by adults. There is a need for information produced by children and adolescents themselves, which may require going beyond existing and pre-COVID theoretical wellbeing frameworks. By capturing information produced by children and adolescents, we can more effectively guide the development and evaluation of public health policies and identify solutions to mitigate the negative impacts of school closure, or to acknowledge the possible positive effects, and respond accordingly.

Early Antecedents of School Burnout in Upper Secondary Education: A Five-year Longitudinal Study.

School burnout symptoms are prevalent among upper secondary education students, but thus far, very little is known about the background of these symptoms. The present study examined the extent to which school burnout symptoms (i.e., exhaustion and cynicism) among upper secondary education students have their roots in primary and lower secondary school and whether early antecedents of school burnout symptoms could be identified. The sample consisted of 1544 Finnish students followed up four times (Time1-Time 4) from the end of primary school (T1; mean age 12.74 and range 11.71-14.20) to the first year of upper secondary education (T4; mean age 16.66 and range 15.55-18.39). The results of latent growth curve modeling showed that school burnout symptoms in upper secondary education were predicted by the level of school burnout symptoms at the end of primary school and by an increase in these symptoms across the transition from primary school through lower secondary school. In addition, psychological well-being, academic skills, and gender were found to contribute to the prediction of school burnout symptoms. Overall, the present study suggest that potential warning signs of school burnout should not be ignored and attention should be directed to earlier education phases.

Longitudinal Effects of the Home Learning Environment and Parental Difficulties on Reading and Math Development Across Grades 1-9.

This study focuses on parental reading and mathematical difficulties, the home literacy environment, and the home numeracy environment as well as their predictive role in Finnish children's reading and mathematical development through Grades 1-9. We examined if parental reading and mathematical difficulties directly predict children's academic performance and/or if they are mediated by the home learning environment. Mothers (n = 1590) and fathers (n = 1507) reported on their reading and mathematical difficulties as well as on the home environment (shared reading, teaching literacy, and numeracy) when their children were in kindergarten. Tests for reading fluency, reading comprehension, and arithmetic fluency were administered to children in Grades 1, 2, 3, 4, 7, and 9. Parental reading difficulties predicted children's reading fluency, whereas parental mathematical difficulties predicted their reading comprehension and arithmetic fluency. Familial risk was associated with neither formal nor informal home environment factors, whereas maternal education had a significant relationship with both, with higher levels of education among mothers predicting less time spent on teaching activities and more time spent on shared reading. In addition, shared reading was significantly associated with the development of reading comprehension up to Grades 3 and 4, whereas other components of the home learning environment were not associated with any assessed skills. Our study highlights that taken together, familial risk, parental education, and the home learning environment form a complex pattern of associations with children's mathematical and reading skills.

Home Literacy Activities and Children's Reading Skills, Independent Reading, and Interest in Literacy Activities From Kindergarten to Grade 2.

According to the Home Literacy Model (Sénéchal and LeFevre, 2002, 2014), young children can be exposed to two distinct types of literacy activities at home. First, meaning-related literacy activities are those where print is present but is not the focus of the parent-child interaction, for example, when parents read storybooks to their children. In contrast, code-related literacy activities focus on the print, for example, activities such as when parents teach their children the names and sounds of letters or to read words. The present study was conducted to expand the Home Literacy Model by examining its relation with children's engagement in literacy activities at home and at school as Finnish children transitioned from kindergarten to Grades 1 and 2. Two facets of children's engagement were examined, namely, children's independent reading at home and their interest in literacy activities. Children (N = 378) were tested and interviewed at the ends of kindergarten, Grade 1, and Grade 2. Mothers completed questionnaires on their home literacy activities at each test time, and they reported the frequency with which their children read independently twice when children were in grade school. Tested was a longitudinal model of the hypothesized relations among maternal home literacy activities (shared reading and teaching of reading), children's reading skills, independent reading, and their interest in literacy activities/tasks as children progressed from kindergarten to Grade 2. Stringent path analyses that included all auto-regressors were conducted. Findings extended previous research in four ways. First, the frequency of shared reading and teaching of reading at home predicted the frequency of children's independent reading 1 year later. Second, children with stronger early literacy skills in kindergarten read independently more frequently once they were in Grade 1. Third, parents adapted, from kindergarten to Grade 1, their teaching behaviors to their children's progress in reading, whereas shared reading decreased over time. Fourth, children's own reports of interest in literacy activities were mostly not linked to other variables. Taken together, these results add another layer to the Home Literacy Model.

A Comparative Study on Adolescents' Health Literacy in Europe: Findings from the HBSC Study.

(1) Background: There is a need for studies on population-level health literacy (HL) to identify the current state of HL within and between countries. We report comparative findings from 10 European countries (Austria, Belgium (Fl), Czechia, England, Estonia, Finland, Germany, Macedonia, Poland, and Slovakia) on adolescents' HL and its associations with gender, family affluence (FAS), and self-rated health (SRH). (2) Methods: Representative data (N = 14,590; age 15) were drawn from the HBSC (Health Behavior in School-Aged Children) study. The associations between HL, gender, FAS, and SRH were examined via path models. (3) Results: The countries exhibited differences in HL means and in the range of scores within countries. Positive associations were found between FAS and HL, and between HL and SRH in each country. Gender was associated with differences in HL in only three countries. HL acted as a mediator between gender and SRH in four countries, and between FAS and SRH in each country. (4) Conclusions: The findings confirm that there are differences in HL levels within and between European countries, and that HL does contribute to differences in SRH. HL should be taken into account when devising evidence-informed policies and interventions to promote the health of adolescents.

Reading and Spelling Development Across Languages Varying in Orthographic Consistency: Do Their Paths Cross?

We examined the cross-lagged relations between reading and spelling in five alphabetic orthographies varying in consistency (English, French, Dutch, German, and Greek). Nine hundred and forty-one children were followed from Grade 1 to Grade 2 and were tested on word and pseudoword reading fluency and on spelling to dictation. Results indicated that the relations across languages were unidirectional: Earlier reading predicted subsequent spelling. However, we also found significant differences between languages in the strength of the effects of earlier reading on subsequent spelling. These findings suggest that, once children master decoding, the observed differences between languages are not related to the direction of the effects but to the strength of the effects from reading to spelling. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed.