Brain-based graph-theoretical predictive modeling to map the trajectory of anhedonia, impulsivity, and hypomania from the human functional connectome.

Clinical assessments often fail to discriminate between unipolar and bipolar depression and identify individuals who will develop future (hypo)manic episodes. To address this challenge, we developed a brain-based graph-theoretical predictive model (GPM) to prospectively map symptoms of anhedonia, impulsivity, and (hypo)mania. Individuals seeking treatment for mood disorders (n = 80) underwent an fMRI scan, including (i) resting-state and (ii) a reinforcement-learning (RL) task. Symptoms were assessed at baseline as well as at 3- and 6-month follow-ups. A whole-brain functional connectome was computed for each fMRI task, and the GPM was applied for symptom prediction using cross-validation. Prediction performance was evaluated by comparing the GPM to a corresponding null model. In addition, the GPM was compared to the connectome-based predictive modeling (CPM). Cross-sectionally, the GPM predicted anhedonia from the global efficiency (a graph theory metric that quantifies information transfer across the connectome) during the RL task, and impulsivity from the centrality (a metric that captures the importance of a region) of the left anterior cingulate cortex during resting-state. At 6-month follow-up, the GPM predicted (hypo)manic symptoms from the local efficiency of the left nucleus accumbens during the RL task and anhedonia from the centrality of the left caudate during resting-state. Notably, the GPM outperformed the CPM, and GPM derived from individuals with unipolar disorders predicted anhedonia and impulsivity symptoms for individuals with bipolar disorders. Importantly, the generalizability of cross-sectional models was demonstrated in an external validation sample. Taken together, across DSM mood diagnoses, efficiency and centrality of the reward circuit predicted symptoms of anhedonia, impulsivity, and (hypo)mania, cross-sectionally and prospectively. The GPM is an innovative modeling approach that may ultimately inform clinical prediction at the individual level.

Using Computational Phenotyping to Identify Divergent Strategies for Effort Allocation Across the Psychosis Spectrum.

BACKGROUND AND HYPOTHESIS: Disturbances in effort-cost decision-making have been highlighted as a potential transdiagnostic process underpinning negative symptoms in individuals with schizophrenia. However, recent studies using computational phenotyping show that individuals employ a range of strategies to allocate effort, and use of different strategies is associated with unique clinical and cognitive characteristics. Building on prior work in schizophrenia, this study evaluated whether effort allocation strategies differed in individuals with distinct psychotic disorders. STUDY DESIGN: We applied computational modeling to effort-cost decision-making data obtained from individuals with psychotic disorders (n = 190) who performed the Effort Expenditure for Rewards Task. The sample included 91 individuals with schizophrenia/schizoaffective disorder, 90 individuals with psychotic bipolar disorder, and 52 controls. STUDY RESULTS: Different effort allocation strategies were observed both across and within different disorders. Relative to individuals with psychotic bipolar disorder, a greater proportion of individuals with schizophrenia/schizoaffective disorder did not use reward value or probability information to guide effort allocation. Furthermore, across disorders, different effort allocation strategies were associated with specific clinical and cognitive features. Those who did not use reward value or probability information to guide effort allocation had more severe positive and negative symptoms, and poorer cognitive and community functioning. In contrast, those who only used reward value information showed a trend toward more severe positive symptoms. CONCLUSIONS: These findings indicate that similar deficits in effort-cost decision-making may arise from different computational mechanisms across the psychosis spectrum.